Rusty
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:08 pm

AndyH wrote:will you tell me why I should care what people from another forum think of MNL? Thanks!
At this point, I can't think of anything...

DrInnovation
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:15 pm

Maybe a little data will help this discussion. This data is from national_household_travel_survey (last released in 2001)

Personal vehicles were used for nearly 97 percent of long-distance person trips of less than 300 roundtrip miles. On the other hand, personal vehicle trips comprised a much smaller percentage of longer distance trips, representing a little more than half of trips with roundtrip distances of 1,000 to less than 2,000 miles, and less than one-quarter of trips 2,000 miles or greater.
In the US there are 1.9 vehicles per household (and only 1.8 people)

In 2001, Americans took a total of 2.3 billion long-distance trips in personal vehicles, resulting in just over 760 billion miles of travel on the nation's roads. (Yes that's Billion of car miles with a B).

The median distance for all long-distance trips taken in personal vehicles was 194 miles. (Breaking out two subcategories, the median distance for a business trip is 123 miles. The median distance for a long distance commuting trip is 69 miles. Business trips are 16 percent of long distance trips and commuting to work is 13 percent of long distance trips.)

The average number of "long" trips per household with a vehicle was just over 24, or over 2 per month.

One can build various scenarios, but this is very consistent with why I choose a Volt, for my families trips outside the range of

Our long trips would have been in a CUV that gets ~28MPG (non-negociable vehicle choice) Now they are in my Volt at ~40mpg, saving 12MPG over approximately 6000 to 8000 miles saving 500 gallons of gas a year compared to BEV+CUV. Is there some waste in my Volt, probably. However, reviewing my Volt usage gas, 60% of miles were on trips over 150 miles, 76% of miles have been on trips over 120miles, and over 85% on trips over 100miles.
Loving the Volt. I've saved 29 gallons compared to a BEV+CUV. From 10/29/11 to 12/29/12, went 11097 on 27.7 gallons of gas + 2742kWh Total fuel costs=$259.27, yielding: 0.25 gal./100mi, 400.5 MPG, 101.73MPGe, 166.5 MPG$ or $.0234/mi.

stephent
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:15 pm

Smidge204 wrote: Point is it worked, and it was not a hypothetical situation by any means. Are you angry that I don't need a Volt or something?
No, I'm not angry about anyone's choice of car. I just am puzzled why people are criticizing the Volt as unsuited to any application, saying there's no reason to own one, using arguments that are completely illogical, and make no sense to me. Being able to make your long trip in a Leaf doesn't have any relevance to what I was arguing in favor of. I'd like them to either stop saying there's no reason to choose a Volt, or come up with better arguments with some actual logic behind them.
stephent wrote:I'm saying *most people* have a short commute. I'm saying that *most people* also take trips that exceed EV range of both vehicles.
You have data on the first claim. You don't have data on the second claim.
OK, I don't have the stats for this. But are you basically claiming that most people never drive more than 80 miles at a time, and want me to have data on this to prove the second claim? I think that's nuts, I can't think of anyone I know who never drives > 80 miles, except for a couple elderly relatives who have given up long distance driving (who occasionally get rides from me for longer trips), and another who can't drive at all since incapacitated by a stroke some years ago. Everyone else of legal driving age I know drives long distances on occasion.

Do you know lots of people who never, ever drive more than 80 miles? Compared to the number who do?
But when I try to quantify how often those trips are - because frequency makes all the difference - you immediately fall back on the BTS data. If you want to talk about long trips, let's talk about long trips. The BTS data is useless here because it tells us nothing about frequency.
No, I was not falling back on BTS data for that purpose. I quoted BTS data, because you and AndyH were bringing up regular long commute situations (your calculations for the 120 mile daily commute), and disputing my assertion that they were uncommon/far-fetched. Even though long commute situations were not at all relevant to the points I was initially making!

I'm happy to talk about infrequent long trips. Let's stick with infrequent long trips. I agree that BTS data is totally irrelevant to long trips. In return, maybe you drop bringing up regular long commute situations, which are also irrelevant.
I'll go back to my pickup truck example: Most people don't need a pickup truck, some people do. Some people buy a pickup truck because they think they might need it occasionally, but in fact the need does not justify the decision. The same is true with the Volt, although the parameters are much more intricate.
This argument is extremely weak, and easily dismissed, because of the magnitude of the parameters involved. Using a pickup truck vs. an EV, for a short commute, extracts a gasoline usage penalty of perhaps a gallon of gas every commuting day, resulting in the extra use of HUNDREDS of gallons of gas per year. Plus, there is no situation where the pickup truck saves any gas over the alternative.

In contrast, using a Volt vs. a Leaf for a short commute, extracts a gasoline usage penalty from the maintenance mode of half a gallon a year at most! Do you see no difference between a penalty of hundreds of gallons, vs. half a gallon? Plus, the Volt saves gas vs. an ICE on the occasional longer trips, which will make that half gallon completely irrelevant!

The Volt is justifiable for its occasional use on longer trips, because the penalty on the very regular shorter trips is very close to zero. If the penalty was much, much larger, THEN you could use the pickup truck argument. But the penalty is not at all big enough for the pickup truck to be a relevant analogy.

When you boil it down, the short commutes are basically a wash and completely insignificant. The gasoline usage comparison is dominated by whether the infrequent long trips are mostly in the Leaf extra 40-80 miles, or mostly 80+. Every mid-range trip saves some fraction of a gallon up to a gallon in favor of the Leaf. Every longer range trip saves more than a gallon in favor of the Volt, especially if the Volt has better MPG than the alternate ICE. So it just depends how many of each you take, the specific details. In-trip charging of course alters the parameters.
But I'll admit the Volt is good for the "occasional" long trip (for varying values of "occasional") if you admit there are plausible situations where buying a Volt over a BEV actually wastes gas
I've already admitted this.
and you stop bringing up "oh they'd have to borrow an ICEv for that" scenario.
I don't see why I have to stop this. It's the crux of the whole argument of Leaf vs. Volt. Otherwise the Leaf owner gets a completely free pass for all his ICE usage. Only the ultra-purists who never ever drive ICE or get rides from people with ICE get to say this doesn't apply to them.

DrInnovation
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:19 pm

Adding just a little more data that may be even more relevant to this discussion on overall usage.

Looking at the MNL forum thread
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 4&start=20" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
You'll find the majority of Leaf owners that discussed range saying they need more for longer trips and use an ICE vehicle for weekends and longer trips. (Lots of discussion is not on range, lots of wandering on MNL). There are a few that mention very efficient vehicles (Prii, motorcycles), but I would contend that using the majority of LEAF owners posting in that thread are wasting more fuel than if they owned a Volt. Their commutes may be "pure", but many are not that green. Some of the leaf owners are amazingly green (Leaf + biodisel is great.. I wish ford had made the Reflex) but even ont his form it seem the average family is not likely better with Leaf+ICE compared to Volt+ICE.
Loving the Volt. I've saved 29 gallons compared to a BEV+CUV. From 10/29/11 to 12/29/12, went 11097 on 27.7 gallons of gas + 2742kWh Total fuel costs=$259.27, yielding: 0.25 gal./100mi, 400.5 MPG, 101.73MPGe, 166.5 MPG$ or $.0234/mi.

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hodad66
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:03 am

"and you stop bringing up "oh they'd have to borrow an ICE for that" scenario.


I don't see why I have to stop this. It's the crux of the whole argument of Leaf vs.
Volt. Otherwise the Leaf owner gets a completely free pass for all his ICE usage.
Only the ultra-purists who never ever drive ICE or get rides from people with ICE
get to say this doesn't apply to them."
Ain't that the truth. It's like all the Republicans disavow any
support for GW Bush and have amnesia as to where he put
the nation.

If you drive an ICE at all, you are doing the same thing that
a Volt owner does but with more payments, insurance, etc.
reserved 7-26-2010, RAQ 7-29-2011... Order Cancelled 9/26/2011,
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Smidge204
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:16 am

hodad66 wrote:If you drive an ICE at all, you are doing the same thing that a Volt owner does but with more payments, insurance, etc.
So what about the common multi-vehicle family situation? One ICEv and one BEV/PHEV. If the drivers switch vehicles for a day how does that impact things? There's been a lot of discussion about it on this forum for sure, but how many people have yet to actually do it?

The whole objection to BEVs is, from what I see, predicated on the "long trips" scenario. Where is the data to support the conclusions you guys are drawing out? You don't get to toss around words like "the majority" without having anything to go by.

And I'm not asking to be snarky, I seriously want that data.

stephent wrote:I just am puzzled why people are criticizing the Volt as unsuited to any application, saying there's no reason to own one
Who is seriously making that argument? If you're referring to when I said 'zero reason to buy a vehicle with a gas tank' then perhaps you missed the context, because that context most certainly was not for any application.

stephent wrote:But are you basically claiming that most people never drive more than 80 miles at a time
The claim is that trips longer than 80 miles are not common enough for the Volt to be the de-facto optimal choice for reducing gasoline use. I lament the fact that I don't have the data to support a conclusion either way. I've been very careful to not assert anything I don't have data for, and to be clear that anecdotes are a poor substitute.

You guys really seem to flip a lid when someone even suggests that a BEV might be a better fit for someone than a PHEV. What are you defending exactly?

stephent wrote:Otherwise the Leaf owner gets a completely free pass for all his ICE usage. Only the ultra-purists who never ever drive ICE or get rides from people with ICE get to say this doesn't apply to them.
Assuming there is any, of course. Again, data we don't have... so basically I'm saying stop getting on my case for saying long trips are relatively infrequent and I'll stop getting on your case for insisting long trips are more frequent.

...and only an ultra-zealot would argue that carpooling is somehow a bad thing now. :P
=Smidge=

Edit: Correcting quote attribution.
Last edited by Smidge204 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DrInnovation
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Fri Nov 18, 2011 9:40 am

Smidge: you seemed to ignore my posts with data.. (and then attributed someone else's quote to me, I did not say anything about free-passes. I think you personally do get a gold star, I'm more interested in the overall household usage model).

You can dig through the data at http://www.bts.gov/publications/highlig ... el_survey/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I'll do some computations with that below but first I'll start with a few of the quotes from the first 3 pages of MNL forum thread on Nissan statement that the average Leaf owner only does 37miles per day and thus dont' need bigger batteries.
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6544&start=20
TomT wrote:I concur on all accounts! A 50 percent increase in range would eliminate 80 percent of the trips that we now have to take in the ICE...
stanley wrote:I agree that their is a huge need for more range. While my Leaf gets much more use than my ICE, I could not due without my ICE because of the limited range of my Leaf. More range would eliminate my need for the ICE. Nissan is limiting its market potential until it`s Leaf has a better range
Volusiano wrote:As long as extended range EVs are not available, it cannot be a primary substitute for the ICE car. And not everyone can afford to have 2 cars. Most people only prefer to own 1 car. So there IS a market need for longer range EVs, even if the longer range need is only occasional.
cwerdna wrote:Hmmm, for me, while I guess there isn't a huge need for me to have a 200-300 mile EV, if I have a 2nd car, it would be nice if the Leaf's range were ~160 miles as pegged by the EPA.
...
.
Mx5racer wrote:I think that it comes down to purpose of the car.
And having 2 cars ( the price of a bigger battery would pay for a second car)

I can drive the leaf to work 5 days a week and have no range issues and
Drive 800 miles a month pollution free.

On the weekends we take the ICE. Is it worth dragging around a bigger battery to cover my weekend trios.
curtegg wrote:Mark Perry's comment is unfortunately based upon skewed data. First, because of the car's range constraint of course his data would reflect that people are getting by with the shorter range. Secondly, how many of those people have more than one vehicle. In my case I use a motorcycle to go beyond 80 miles. If my Leaf could get 150 freeway miles I would be totally satisfied with the Leaf range. For now I rely on 20% of my trips on the second vehicle. I hate it when PR people rely on skew data in making their comments.


So clearly Leaf owners are clearly still using ICE for those trips.
Now lets revisit the BTS long-trip data and put it in context.

The median distance for all long-distance trips taken in personal vehicles was 194 miles. (Seems pretty long to me)
The average number of long trips per household with a vehicle was just over 24, or over 2 per month. (Seems pretty frequent to me!)
The 760 billion personal vehicle long distance trip miles translates to and average household, traveling over 7500 miles in "long trips".

So consider the BEV+ICE model, with an ICE getting 25mpg (slightly above average) versus a Volt (or Volt + same ICE)

Assuming average 37mile usage (Nissan's numbers) for commuting both the BEV and Volt get there and back on electric power. If a second car is used for a second commute, local errands, hauling junk etc, presume that will be the same for both.

So the difference for this average case scenario is long distance travel.

For the BEV+ICE their 7500 miles of long trips using the ICE will need 300 gallons of gas. If they have a Volt, their long trips using the EPA 40MPG hw would only need 186 gallons saving 114 gallons. So even if they uses 20 gallons on Volt maintenance modes and lost opportunity for BEV on medium trips ( in the 40-80mile range), they are still far ahead.


While there are without questions cases were a BEV75 alone is sufficient, or BEV +ICE can be better than a Volt, I content that this data suggests that for an average household BEV+average ICE is not as overall efficient in overal fuel usage as Volt (or Volt +ICE).
Loving the Volt. I've saved 29 gallons compared to a BEV+CUV. From 10/29/11 to 12/29/12, went 11097 on 27.7 gallons of gas + 2742kWh Total fuel costs=$259.27, yielding: 0.25 gal./100mi, 400.5 MPG, 101.73MPGe, 166.5 MPG$ or $.0234/mi.

LEAFfan
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:25 pm

DC QCs will be here soon on the Interstates/freeways and then all your arguments against the LEAF will be moot. I'm one of the few right now that has been using QCs about three times a week and ONLY drive my LEAF so I have ZERO gasoline miles. People that drive hybrids such as the Volt have a different mindset than people that choose to drive ONLY BEV cars. I wouldn't own any gasoline car even if it got 300 miles a gallon because that's still one gallon of gasoline too much! But that's I.
2013 LEAF SV Del. 2/28/13
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AndyH
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Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:33 pm

Smidge,

This has gone beyond the point of fact and logic and appears to me to be firmly entrenched in "my religion is better than yours."

It seems absolutely absurd to me that someone needs so badly to justify their choice by putting down or trying to trivialize the benefits of another's choice. Especially when it's so easy to beat 40 MPG on the highway. I've been doing it with my 1996 and 1997 VWs since the beginning (45-50 mpg), and many of the Leafers have a Prius in the garage at 50+MPG.

I'm glad that people are using vehicles that reduce fuel use - absolutely! And I really don't care which forum neighborhood they call home. But if this forum draws the attention of any more "my hybrid is better than your EV" zealots, I'm going to have to go somewhere else to live. ;)

Keep up the good work, Smidge. And here's a dermal regenerator - your forehead is bruised. :lol:

Andy
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
2018 Outlander PHEV
2015 smart Electric Drive (lease ended Feb, 2018)
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

DrInnovation
Posts: 197
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:47 pm
Location: Colorado Springs. Volt Owner

Re: What gm-volt guys think of MNL ...

Fri Nov 18, 2011 2:13 pm

Andy:
I'm not interested in Jihad, and I'm not trying to be snarky. I was simply providing data and an analysis. Smidge's last post said he wanted data.
Smidge204 wrote:The whole objection to BEVs is, from what I see, predicated on the "long trips" scenario. Where is the data to support the conclusions you guys are drawing out? You don't get to toss around words like "the majority" without having anything to go by.

And I'm not asking to be snarky, I seriously want that data.
and later added
Smidge204 wrote:The claim is that trips longer than 80 miles are not common enough for the Volt to be the de-facto optimal choice for reducing gasoline use. I lament the fact that I don't have the data to support a conclusion either way.
And while I had posted BTS data earlier, as well as links to actual leaf owners discussing the range issue, I left it to the readers to dig it out and do an analysis. Later I decided I collected them and present the analysis. If actual data and analysis is "beyond point of fact and logic", then your model of data and logic escape me. Part of the advantage of multi-view thread is the difference of knowledge that can be brought into the discussion.

The Volt is not better than the Leaf, nor is the Leaf better than the Volt. that is an apples to oranges comparison. Each with their own advantages. There are multiple posts in the thread saying BEV+ICE > Volt (or Volt+ICE) with virtually no data, just personal opinion or a 1-person story from which one cannot draw a real conclusion. I was just trying to point out that the scenario for the Volt is much better, for the average household, than many here have been presenting. People thinking about the Volt Leaf choice will be looking for discussion, and I can see this thread having value for them only if it moves beyond single-point example from the extremes and vitriolic brand bashing. Smidge asked for supporting data on long trips and I dug it up and analyzed it.
Loving the Volt. I've saved 29 gallons compared to a BEV+CUV. From 10/29/11 to 12/29/12, went 11097 on 27.7 gallons of gas + 2742kWh Total fuel costs=$259.27, yielding: 0.25 gal./100mi, 400.5 MPG, 101.73MPGe, 166.5 MPG$ or $.0234/mi.

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