They are really expanding 40 distribution globally, so no clue.
I think the battery is getting super cheap to build, so they are running with it. They are pushing the 40 all over south east asia, LATAM, eastern Europe, and the middle east. (a bit Africa too).
Cost is a big question. I wonder if they can make an 80 Leaf, whether it will sit maybe at 38-39K to start, then drop the 62 by a couple grand, and the 40 becomes the entry point. I don't know that an 80 would make 300 on EPA without some additional changes. I have run my Plus out past 240 miles on a charge with very careful freeway driving, but that only barely makes 300. I do think they need the 300 moniker to sell a price increase on the car.
What I don't have a great feel for is the impact of drag vs. motor train efficiency on overall range. In the CarWow test, the Niro hit 255 miles compared to 208 for the Leaf+ in cold weather. The battery difference in the cars is only about 3.5kWh. when you look at the EPA testing. The cars have the same drag rating and similar frontal footprint. So I think the Leaf could benefit from an eco+ mode with reduced power and more flattening of the power curve to match the Kia. Hard to tell. With that they could on a WLTP basis probably get to 300.
Still, we love our Leaf Plus. SoH at 97.2 after 8 months. Most of the drop in the first 4 months, and now pretty flat. We are in a medium cold climate of Chicago, so that helps a bit.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh