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mwalsh
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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:08 pm

gascant wrote:Why would he say that with the rumors of a 200 mile range EV being produced by Nissan/Infiniti swirling about?
I don't think we'll see 200 miles as achieveable with the next EV from Nissan/Infiniti. More like 150 LA4/100+ real world. But who knows - we're probably 2 years away and anything could happen.
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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:34 pm

Herm wrote: Why would he say that with the rumors of a 200 mile range EV being produced by Nissan/Infiniti swirling about?
...
If those rumors dont stop they will kill present sales of product.

They may weaken it, but it depends on the buyer - my pending LEAF will work as my primary car about 360 days a year and stay cheaper than a 200mile range until economy of scale and better battery tech brings the 200miler down to same price in 4-5yr (whereas a widespread QC network will take probably 10-15y to develop)

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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:05 pm

My "average" trip length means very little. My longer trips, not my 10-mile trips, are what keeps my LEAF from "doing everything".

As the battery ages, some of the longer "daily" trips will become difficult to do without a small recharge.

Longer range, perhaps 150 LA4 miles when the battery is new, still is likely to be less than 90 when the Battery has aged, and the Heater and Lights are required.

So, Quick Charging is the solution for most of us, that cannot afford to pay to haul the extra batteries around.

With properly placed Fast-Fueling stations, we will be able to do those occasional longer trips, even with adverse conditions.

The FF (or QC) is a MUST-HAVE.
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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:15 am

I'm obviously in the minority, but I really don't need more range. The QCs will be available soon and that's what I plan to use for extended trips more than 100 miles or so. It won't bother me too add a few hours to my out-of-state trips.
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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Fri Oct 28, 2011 1:47 am

Hmmm, for me, while I guess there isn't a huge need for me to have a 200-300 mile EV, if I have a 2nd car, it would be nice if the Leaf's range were ~160 miles as pegged by the EPA.

I've currently held off on picking a dealer for my Leaf since I don't know where I'll be working. I live in south SJ where everything is far. My last job in the Bay Area in Mountain View and was ~24 miles away, one way. The Leaf would work for that and is currently sufficient for vast majority of my current driving.

But, I could have a job that could be as much as 60 miles away, one way w/o any means of charging at work. 160 miles would be probably enough for that w/some slack for battery degradation, some faster driving, cold temps, heavy AC use, etc.

Right now, there's no way I can make to San Francisco and back w/o charging somewhere in SF.

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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:00 am

I think that it comes down to purpose of the car.
And having 2 cars ( the price of a bigger battery would pay for a second car)

I can drive the leaf to work 5 days a week and have no range issues and
Drive 800 miles a month pollution free.

On the weekends we take the ICE. Is it worth dragging around a bigger battery to cover my weekend trios.
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edatoakrun
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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:51 am

Lets take a quick and dirty look at the economics of battery size, vs. charge point economics.

For a self-sustaining market driven system, you probably need about 1 DC charge point for each 100 BEV vehicles. This is because most BEV drivers will do most of their charging at home, where it is most convenient, and undoubtedly far cheaper.

But in order to get the geographic distribution to cover major highways, you need an absolute number of DC charge locations, say 5,000 to cover the 48 contiguous states.

So an American DC charge network needs a significant minimum number of vehicles on the road to support it, 500,000 using the examples above.

Is it surprising that the manufactures planning to build only a few thousand BEVs a year, have little interest in the public fast charging infrastructure, and instead have a "lets just put more batteries in the damn thing" engineering approach to BEV range?

But I am also disappointed in The mass market BEV companies. Nissan and Mitsubishi, who seem to only want to build out the DC infrastructure as fast as they need to, in order to sell their current planned output.

These companies are a generation ahead, in BEV design and production, of those manufactures who simply pick the cheapest ICEV glider they can find, and convert a few thousand to BEVs, for PR or regulatory (CARB) purposes.

IMO, Nissan (and Mitsubishi) should be gearing up now to have a full range of BEVs in production ASAP. And IF there is a DC charge network available in 5 years, they will be able to sell every BEV sedan, hatchback, crossover/wagon, and sports car, they can turn out.
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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Fri Oct 28, 2011 7:05 am

Much of that data is from early adopters that bought the car based on it's restraints. He is likely trying to support their present business model since making an industry assumption on skewed data is not only unscientific but foolish. This is more Perry marketing speak not anything that supports market demand or even present user demand. More silly tidbits that mean little.

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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Fri Oct 28, 2011 8:46 am

Mark Perry's comment is unfortunately based upon skewed data. First, because of the car's range constraint of course his data would reflect that people are getting by with the shorter range. Secondly, how many of those people have more than one vehicle. In my case I use a motorcycle to go beyond 80 miles. If my Leaf could get 150 freeway miles I would be totally satisfied with the Leaf range. For now I rely on 20% of my trips on the second vehicle. I hate it when PR people rely on skew data in making their comments.

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Re: "No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Pe

Fri Oct 28, 2011 8:49 am

edatoakrun wrote:Is it surprising that the manufactures planning to build only a few thousand BEVs a year, have little interest in the public fast charging infrastructure, and instead have a "lets just put more batteries in the damn thing" engineering approach to BEV range?

But I am also disappointed in The mass market BEV companies. Nissan and Mitsubishi, who seem to only want to build out the DC infrastructure as fast as they need to, in order to sell their current planned output.

These companies are a generation ahead, in BEV design and production, of those manufactures who simply pick the cheapest ICEV glider they can find, and convert a few thousand to BEVs, for PR or regulatory (CARB) purposes.

IMO, Nissan (and Mitsubishi) should be gearing up now to have a full range of BEVs in production ASAP. And IF there is a DC charge network available in 5 years, they will be able to sell every BEV sedan, hatchback, crossover/wagon, and sports car, they can turn out.
Judging from the looks of what's happening at Smyrna, it looks as if Nissan is definitely planned to crank up BEV production in 2013. It'll be intesting to see if they can get their <$20K quick charger deployed to support these BEVs, or if another company steps up with a cost effective alternative.

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