1 Nissan mile = .75 real miles in ideal conditions.
200 * .75 = 150 real miles.
5 year old battery = 30% degradation.
150 * .70 = 105 miles in ideal conditions after 5 years.
0F = 17.5% reduction in storage capacity.
105 * .825 = 87 miles.
And we haven't even addressed losses associated with highway driving or heater use. I'm going to guess -25 miles.
Worst case scenario: 62 miles, or roughly what you get from a brand new LEAF on the highway in 70F with climate control off.
I find that the greatest impact to range is a cold battery and wind, and wind we get a hell of a lot here. I find after the initial warm up the heat pump is very efficient, consuming between 400-800 watts with a few peaks to 1Kw and sometimes it's off altogether for a bit. This is with a temp setting of 19 deg C or 66.2 F.
It's a shame Nissan chose not to use thermal management, a warm battery makes a noticeable difference and a big difference to fast charge time.
I find that after 100 Kms between 80-100 Kph or about 50-62 MPH I would want to be close to a charge point or plugged in by 110 Kms or 70 odd miles.
Once we have a real 200 miles range we won't even be worrying about efficiency and probably not about battery life either.
200 miles I would say would need at least 60 Kwh and I can't see the average car having 60 Kwh for another 10 years unless there is some major breakthrough in cost.
I honestly can't see leaf II having more than 40 Kwh max, maybe around 140 miles range or 120 in winter going by the current car.
Delivery 20 th January 2015 . Top Spec with 6.6 Kw Charger . 44,200 miles as of July 2017. Battery SOH 95%