Warning, long post, some of which is OT for background info.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
It is interesting how someone that has driven an EV for a few days is the source of so much understanding of EVs.
Us long term EV drivers don't know anything.
It's interesting that early adopters think they represent the priorities and outlook of the typical non-ideological drivers of the general public, who see no reason to switch unless the new tech provides them with essentially the same capabilities as the old tech plus something else they value, and does so for a comparable price.
LOL. Are you claiming that you are a "typical non-ideological driver"?
No, I'm atypical and ideological. But I'm also strongly pragmatic, and as I've mentioned I'm well aware of the differing priorities of early adopters compared to the general public.
WetEV said:
Once again, the general public isn't a lump, it is a distribution. Horses had capabilities that cars didn't, like full self driving, so the automobile was doomed in GRA world.
Oh, please, that's just silly. BTW, at the moment the "lump" is the 98% or so of non-BEV cars being bought by the public.
WetEV said:
While I do pitch PHEVs to some people, I find that the "Trump crowd" used to be totally against them. They would listen to BEVs on two levels: speed and acceleration, like results of Pikes Peak hill climb, and low cost for electric trucks for local delivery. After the Texas freeze, I've sent some stuff on people that plugged their house into a Ford F150 with "Pro Power Onboard generator", 7.2 kW. If they weren't Chevy Truck people, they might have been interested. Instead, they asked the local Chevy dealer when Chevy was getting something like this. Which I think is a win.
Better than nothing, but IMO a waste of time to worry about them now, as there are numerous groups easier to convince at the moment.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
To date, BEVs fail that test. I had plenty of experience selling a new tech (RE) to customers, and am well aware of the very different priorities of those two groups.
Exponential growth isn't good enough for you? Or is a doubling time of 2.5 years is just too long for your quarterly mindset?
You're damned right I consider an artificially boosted (due to the pandemic) sub-2% take rate after a decade of bribery, in a function that everyone uses, demonstrates that the tech is still too premature to cross the chasm. Every survey over that same ten years has raised the same three issues for why people are hesitant to adopt BEVs: Price, Range, Infrastructure. PHEVs minimize or avoid all three issues until they improve enough to no longer be issues. Price and batteries are a lot closer to where they need to be than they were a decade ago; infrastructure still lags but is making some progress, at least for trips.
WetEV said:
Why are you using your considerable sales skills to try to unsell LEAF and other BEV owners? What is your goal?
First, I'm not a "salesman" - I loathe the breed. I considered my job to be customer service, helping inform the customer of the various options to meet their needs and priorities, with the pros and cons of each fully laid out. If asked I would give my recommendation with the reasons for same, but the ultimate choice is theirs. It doesn't matter if
I think it's sub-optimal, because that's an opinion based on my priorities not theirs. What matters most to me is that they be happy and satisfied with their choice, use it to their maximum advantage, and they will inform and probably convert others. One unsatisfied customer makes more noise and has more influence than 10-100 satisfied ones for a new product or tech, so that's to be avoided like the plague.
I am not aware of ever trying to "unsell" LEAF or other BEV owners, as they've already made their choice. However, having made a choice, most (male) owners have a fair amount of their egos wrapped up with it even if they aren't fanboys, and as a result tend to over-emphasize the advantages and downplay or overlook the disadvantages of their choice to potential buyers. As I don't have any ego wrapped up in a particular car or tech I'm technology-neutral, and believe in trying to provide the full range of information, pro and cons, to prospective buyers, and then let them make up their own minds.
So, in the case of the LEAF, I will point out that I consider the lack of an ATMS makes the long term durability of the battery and consequent effects on its range, render it likely less suitable for hot and cold climates than other BEVs with ATMS, but that it's probably a non-issue in climates like yours. In addition, I think the lack of a battery capacity warranty with explicitly defined capacity values, combined with Nissan's history of denying any problems which required a class-action lawsuit to get them to stand behind their product for early owners, should be a consideration for anyone requiring long-term viability from the battery.
Do you disagree with any of the above factual info? Does providing these facts represent trying to "unsell" someone to you? If so, then I will happily accept that's what I do, because that's info I would want to have if
I were the potential customer in question.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Edit: On that point, and getting back directly on topic, the following is from ABG:
I'm not driving an electric car to California. Give me a plug-in hybrid
Electric car devotees are quick to decry plug-in hybrids since they still burn gasoline. Yet, this all-or-nothing position is counterproductive to the larger cause. Plug-in hybrids can run on gasoline, but in the typical use case, they rarely do. They'll mostly travel around on battery power, which will save a massive amount of CO2 from entering Earth's atmosphere. And in many cases, those savings never would've happened without the presence of that gasoline engine: Most buyers would have instead gone with a pure gasoline vehicle or at best, a traditional hybrid. I'm definitely not alone in my hesitancy to make longer journeys with an electric car.
The amusing thing is I have and will continue to suggest PHEVs and even HEVs or ICEs to people with a use case that fits best into.
And I have and will continue to do likewise. I have a friend who's an even more extreme example of the "active outdoors" demographic than I am, who's been driving and mostly self-maintaining one or another used Volvo wagon in the 40 years I've known him, and who I'd been keeping more or less up to date on the progress of PEVs/FCEVs and their infrastructure for the past five years or so. He's an environmentalist and has both solar water heating and grid-intertied PV for his home, so he's well prepped and more than willing to switch.
We hadn't communicated much in the past year, as his winter job where I'd usually see him was shut due to Covid, and so I was unaware that his latest Volvo had died a premature death (8 years & 132k, far less than he's usually gotten) late last year, leaving him looking for a replacement. AFAIK he's never held a 9-5 job in his life and he's in his mid-'70s now, so local commuting isn't an issue, although he does live out of town at the urban/wildland interface so his errands involve a fair amount of driving.
His normal "commute" to the winter job above is about 185 miles to the trailhead at Badger Pass in Yosemite @ 7,240', then a 9 mile ski with a net gain of another 1,300 feet or so. As in my case, the lack of Infrastructure at/on the way to the remote places he likes to visit rules out a BEV/FCEV for now, although his commute can finally be done with a BEV thanks to the recent Chargepoint site opening in Groveland (For Tesla a couple of years ago) and the coming soon EA site in Buck Mdws.
Anyhoo, being disappointed by the most recent Volvo he decided to buy his very first new car ever. He went looking, and after trying and rejecting the RAV4 (probably the HEV. IDK if the dealer didn't have a Prime or did but had the seemingly typical $5-$10k ADM) as too big and clumsy feeling, wound up with a CR-V hybrid. He's getting 38-40 mpg on trips, has room for all his and friend's gear and/or his dog, can like his Volvo wagons sleep two side by side (usually human + dog in his case) and cost him $31k before tax, far more than he's ever spent on a car before.
If a smallish battery PHEV CUV that met his needs had been available at a reasonable price, I'm sure he would have gotten it, as he says he often maxes out his battery charge via the regen paddle just descending the road from his house, but I can't argue with his choice given the available options right now.
OTOH, when we got together for the first time since January of last year and had dinner at my local brewpub Thursday night (Yay, Warriors!), I did suggest that when his wife's early RAV4 gave out, something like a Bolt EUV or similar 2WD BECUV would be a good fit, as she isn't doing her own long trips anymore when he's on one of his. She likes to sit up high to see, and with two replacement knees I suspect getting in and out of low cars may also be an issue, As she also has trouble now turning to see behind and to the sides I suggested a car with a rear-view camera, blind-spot warning, AEB etc. like his CR-V has would be a good idea. So I may still see them as an HEV + BEV household eventually - they're anything but averse to the idea, but like me keep equipment until it can no longer perform its job. Given both of their ages I doubt a further round of car buying is likely, and probably the next step should be MaaS AVs in any case.
WetEV said:
Do notice about half of the miles in the typical PHEV are electric, unlike the claim above.
I
disagree to some extent. To me, "typical use case" + "mostly travel around" refers to/implies routine local & regional use, not trips, although the other reading is also plausible. Providing better incentives for EV miles might boost the % from ca. 50 to maybe 70% but not much more, because people would be choosing PHEVs rather than BEVs precisely because of the trip capability (amongst other reasons).
WetEV said:
Most buyers will go with an ICE or hybrid for years into the future. Will not be PHEVs or BEVs due to the manufacturing capacity, the infrastructure or the distribution of knowledge needed. Doubling time of roughly 2-3 years. Everything takes time.
I suspect the years will be somewhat fewer than you do, albeit upcoming bans will likely play a significant role in that.