DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 15046
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:31 pm

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:08 am
A thermal managed 2021 Leaf could explain the fire sale on the 2019 and 2020 Leafs.
Or a significant price cut.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 13,705 mi, 93.41% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SageBrush
Posts: 5261
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:31 pm

NEW, 62-ish kWh Bolts with a liquid cooled battery and CCS are in the low $20s.

Nissan may as well start a buy 1, get one free promotion.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 15473
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:37 pm

Nissan may as well start a buy 1, get one free promotion.
They don't sell Bolts. ;)
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2075
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:07 pm

I have seen a new set of 2019 Leaf Plus unit appear at one of the local dealers for 28-29K, which is crazy cheap when you throw in the $7,500. I don't know if these were test drivers or fleet cars, as I don't know where they would have come from.

Do we think that Nissan or GM are making any money on these cars at these levels?

Thermal mgmt is nice, but if you rarely do more than 400-500 miles in a day (at least in Chicago) it kind of a non-issue. We'll see what our Plus batteries look like in a few years, though I don't think either of our Leaf's ever even hit 1 bar above the midway point this year. (admittedly it was a mild summer). The 200+ mile (on a charge) trips in the S+ don't add more than a few degrees F to the battery after hours of driving. The SV+ does heat a bit faster at 70 as its pulling more juice.

I may try a 280 mile at 55 mph highway trip here in a couple weeks, to see if the efficiency is as good as the GOM wants me to believe. Hopefully weather will stay nice.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

SageBrush
Posts: 5261
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:17 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:37 pm
Nissan may as well start a buy 1, get one free promotion.
They don't sell Bolts. ;)
Since you put it that way, Nissan can try buy 1 LEAF, get two LEAFs free
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 15473
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:55 pm

We get that you don't understand why everyone doesn't share your personal preferences. What we don't get is why you refuse to just accept it without that understanding. For a lot of older, less than perfectly healthy people living in the Snow Belt, the Leaf is a better choice than the Model 3. It doesn't have to be that way, but Musk's tunnel vision isn't going to give us a truly comfortable, affordable Tesla for a long time, I suspect.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

SageBrush
Posts: 5261
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:57 am

I could not care less about the plural you, I'm pointing out that Nissan is going to struggle to sell even compliance numbers of passively cooled battery, CHAdeMO LEAFs at prices higher than a Bolt.

Tangentially, I dragged my wife to a Chevy dealership last week to check out a Bolt. I didn't say a word about varying opinions on the ergonomics. She was upbeat until she sat in the car and then balked. In her case though, the seat was fine. She was afraid to test drive the car because she could not see the hood. The car really does give off a mini-van vibe in the inside even though it is a small, narrow car. I asked the salesman how other drivers perform on the test drive who also lack experience with 'hoodless' cars. He mentioned that some get way too close to the car in front of them, and some hit the curb turning corners. That was not what my wife wanted to hear.

Yesterday was Tesla battery day. I was (and still am) ecstatic over the leap in production plans while the message that my wife latched on to was that a Tesla car in the price range she is comfortable paying may be available in 3 - 4 years and our LEAF could last until then ...

Funny how these things go.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 12253
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:09 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:57 am

<Snip>

Yesterday was Tesla battery day. I was (and still am) ecstatic over the leap in production plans while the message that my wife latched on to was that a Tesla car in the price range she is comfortable paying may be available in 3 - 4 years and our LEAF could last until then ...

Funny how these things go.
Of course, you should apply an ECF* to that schedule, so probably we won't see cars at that price until somewhere in the Q3 2024 - Q1 2025 timeframe.


*Elon Correction Factor.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
Posts: 5261
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:20 pm

GRA wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:09 pm
SageBrush wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:57 am
<Snip>
Yesterday was Tesla battery day. I was (and still am) ecstatic over the leap in production plans while the message that my wife latched on to was that a Tesla car in the price range she is comfortable paying may be available in 3 - 4 years and our LEAF could last until then ...
Of course, you should apply an ECF* to that schedule, so probably we won't see cars at that price until somewhere in the Q3 2024 - Q1 2025 timeframe.

*Elon Correction Factor.
Sarcasm aside, I translated the vehicle cost reduction as ~ $10k compared to today.
35 becomes 25
45 becomes 35
50 becomes 40

The $25k car would be ~ 3 years from when the Tesla $35k car became available.
She would probably choose a Model Y at today's specs at $40k in 3 years since it is $50k today.
A more optimistic view would be that today's Tesla prices will drop to 25/35 in 3 years
Last edited by SageBrush on Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2075
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: The 62kWh Battery Topic

Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:28 pm

Well, both Bolt and Leaf Plus can be had for 25K and less today.

Teslas battery day innovations were pretty interesting and exciting. It still amazes me how awkward Elon is in front of the camera after all these years. He is still truly an engineer at heart. I hope the other battery manufacturers are as forthcoming about their equivalent innovations. I even thought Nissan's one the other day on carbon fiber molding was pretty cool. (Though flabbergasted that the new Z is not electric).

I find the Y ugly as hell, M3 is way better looking. In line with Leftir, as I get a few more grey hairs, I do appreciate the higher seating of the Leaf. Its about as sporty as I can handle safely.

Very excited to hear reports that the EA chargers are being unthrottled. I will test our local one in a couple days once my soc gets low enough for a good test.

Any rumors on the 21 Leaf? I am guessing only small changes again, but curious if the rumor mill has heard anything. A few more Australians have imported a Leaf Plus from Japan and making youtube videos about it (though its coming there officially next year). Eastern Europe also seems to be getting Leaf Plus as reviews in just about every eastern European language have popped up over last 6 months. Hopefully South America gets them soon too.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

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