TSLA corporate outlook

LTLFTcomposite said:

holy cow

Click to expand...

Like I said. I will have bumps and this is with all the sort pressure. If they execute on everything as planned this will be small time. I expect plenty of FUD this year though.

I am laughing at the recent stock price gain. It's fully divorced from reality. It's now valued at GM and Ford combined even though combined they make 30X the cars.

EVDRIVER said:

dgpcolorado said:

I figured that TSLA was rather richly priced at $200 and $300 but today it is at $444/share. Go figure, momentum stocks can be pretty bizarre and the short positions have dropped a huge amount as short sellers got squeezed out.

A current news report:

Musk Defies Skeptics, Meets Tesla Delivery Goal; Shares Hit Record

Gigafactory 3 in China going from groundbreaking to delivery of cars (Model 3) in one year boggles my mind. That won't happen with the Berlin Gigafactory 4, I presume.

Click to expand...

Unless Tesla has some major issue I expect this price to double easily, Q1 may be rough but then things will be amazing. Anyone that has followed Tesla closely and not the FUD and had some money to invest is likely in very nice shape now.

Click to expand...

Only double? Why not tripled or quadruple by end of tihs year? I think Tesla should be valued at more than all the world's car companies combined.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

I am laughing at the recent stock price gain. It's fully divorced from reality. It's now valued at GM and Ford combined even though combined they make 30X the cars.

Click to expand...

This is what happens once the irrational short storyline begins to unravel.
The way forward is EVs, and no competition seems to be able to make a car as compelling. Investors are starting to truly appreciate that, and the shorts are getting forced out.

Zythryn said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

I am laughing at the recent stock price gain. It's fully divorced from reality. It's now valued at GM and Ford combined even though combined they make 30X the cars.

Click to expand...

This is what happens once the irrational short storyline begins to unravel.
The way forward is EVs, and no competition seems to be able to make a car as compelling. Investors are starting to truly appreciate that, and the shorts are getting forced out.

Click to expand...

Ah yes, and soon Tesla will have monopoly power, and all of the economic and political power that implies. 80% market share and more important the Tesla only charging network. High margins for ever, meaning high prices to consumers. Tesla will not need to care.

Zythryn said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

I am laughing at the recent stock price gain. It's fully divorced from reality. It's now valued at GM and Ford combined even though combined they make 30X the cars.

Click to expand...

This is what happens once the irrational short storyline begins to unravel.
The way forward is EVs, and no competition seems to be able to make a car as compelling. Investors are starting to truly appreciate that, and the shorts are getting forced out.

Click to expand...

No, sir. Let's be clear. There is nothing rational about a $90B valuation for a company making 500k cars/year that can't even make a profit.

The competition is doing fine. Porsche has now made an EV objectively superior to the Model S (I mean, at least all the reviewers say so). The rest are slow to get there, but Ford's mustang thingy looks pretty interesting--and it's real, and will actually be sold.

There's never been anything difficult about EV. GM, Toyota had EV power trains in cars decades ago. The primary dearth of them is due to the market just not wanting them. It's been apparent to me that the competition would have no problem making EVs when the market really wanted them. They are still irrelevant in the grand scheme.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

No, sir. Let's be clear. There is nothing rational about a $90B valuation for a company making 500k cars/year that can't even make a profit.

Click to expand...

They have an 80% market share, and may get a monopoly position due to their Tesla Only charging networks as the market expands.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

There's never been anything difficult about EV. GM, Toyota had EV power trains in cars decades ago. The primary dearth of them is due to the market just not wanting them. It's been apparent to me that the competition would have no problem making EVs when the market really wanted them. They are still irrelevant in the grand scheme.

Click to expand...

Decades ago, EVs didn't have the batteries to compete. Technology has and will continue to change.

WetEV said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

No, sir. Let's be clear. There is nothing rational about a $90B valuation for a company making 500k cars/year that can't even make a profit.

Click to expand...

They have an 80% market share, and may get a monopoly position due to their Tesla Only charging networks as the market expands.

Click to expand...

So their competitors have about 99% of the market?

How can anybody talk about a charging monopoly when the majority of EV miles are charged at home? And you really think the car companies that currently have 99% of the market cannot come up with a few bucks to build their own networks if they want to? The capital cost of a charge station isn't even a million per.

So much adieu is made of this but EVs are still pretty irrelevant, which is why the big brands have given them so little attention. When you're able to make truck after truck and make thousands on it instead of losing, you tend to make truck after truck.

I heard the Porsche has sucky range, worse than a leaf. Suggests EV engineering isn't as easy as taking a gas car and putting batteries in it. Tesla will continue to attract the top talent because face it what hotshot engineer, material scientist or what have you is clamoring to have Ford on their resume.

WetEV said:

Decades ago, EVs didn't have the batteries to compete. Technology has and will continue to change.

Click to expand...

My point is other competitors were playing with EV when Musk was still a little boy. There's nothing new to the technology and battery technology is available to all. Tesla really has no competitive advantage besides its personality cult. There is nothing else it is doing competitors can't do.

"Then, why aren't they doing it?" people ask?

"Because they are in the business of making profit on their cars." I would respond

Regular car manufacturers don't understand what should be obvious wrt building out a charging network. They still think having some stations at dealers or relying on these ridiculous third party networks is somehow going to be effective.

I'm not so much amazed that Tesla figured it out; I'm amazed that nobody else has. I suspect the explanation lies in a corporate decision making machine made up of people that don't use their own products. Seriously do you think Mary Barra or Alan Mulally have ever taken a road trip and stopped at a Cracker Barrel, Wawa or Flying J? These people make decisions based on what people tell them and what they see on powerpoints. To them their strategies make perfect sense.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

How can anybody talk about a charging monopoly when the majority of EV miles are charged at home? And you really think the car companies that currently have 99% of the market cannot come up with a few bucks to build their own networks if they want to?

Click to expand...

Tesla's market share of the total car market is around 2%, not 1%.

Do try to keep up. The future isn't the same as the past.

So how would a car without a charge network compete? Only on price, yes?
Tesla can afford to lose money at the bottom end of the market as their margin will be high at the top of the market where there is no competition.

It is not just bucks needed to build a charging network. It takes time. And time is ticking away.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

So much adieu is made of this but EVs are still pretty irrelevant, which is why the big brands have given them so little attention. When you're able to make truck after truck and make thousands on it instead of losing, you tend to make truck after truck.

Click to expand...

Gasoline cars before the Model T were pretty irrelevant. I'm sure the buggy whip business was profitable then...

LTLFTcomposite said:

Regular car manufacturers don't understand what should be obvious wrt building out a charging network. They still think having some stations at dealers or relying on these ridiculous third party networks is somehow going to be effective.

I'm not so much amazed that Tesla figured it out; I'm amazed that nobody else has. I suspect the explanation lies in a corporate decision making machine made up of people that don't use their own products. Seriously do you think Mary Barra or Alan Mulally have ever taken a road trip and stopped at a Cracker Barrel, Wawa or Flying J? These people make decisions based on what people tell them and what they see on powerpoints. To them their strategies make perfect sense.

Click to expand...

Let me assure you that you are 100% correct. I have sat with board members of one of the largest and oldest car makers and NONE of them had ever rode in an EV although they had prototype EVs of existing models. The stupidity, ignorance, and conservative cultures of these companies is a big issue. Fear is another. Also, Tesla is NOT a car company and the car companies, analysts, and many here do not get that important fact.

LTLFTcomposite said:

Regular car manufacturers don't understand what should be obvious wrt building out a charging network. They still think having some stations at dealers or relying on these ridiculous third party networks is somehow going to be effective.

I'm not so much amazed that Tesla figured it out; I'm amazed that nobody else has. I suspect the explanation lies in a corporate decision making machine made up of people that don't use their own products. Seriously do you think Mary Barra or Alan Mulally have ever taken a road trip and stopped at a Cracker Barrel, Wawa or Flying J? These people make decisions based on what people tell them and what they see on powerpoints. To them their strategies make perfect sense.

Click to expand...

Stations at dealers are often not useful, unless perhaps you have business at the dealership, like repairs.

Third party networks is what we hope wins out long term. If proprietary charging networks win, then there likely will be one EV company left standing, the one with the best network. That's probably Tesla, as the mostly ICE companies are not building proprietary networks, at least yet. And hopefully, never.

EVDRIVER said:

Let me assure you that you are 100% correct. I have sat with board members of one of the largest and oldest car makers and NONE of them had ever rode in an EV although they had prototype EVs of existing models. The stupidity, ignorance, and conservative cultures of these companies is a big issue. Fear is another. Also, Tesla is NOT a car company and the car companies, analysts, and many here do not get that important fact.

Click to expand...

Tesla Mission Statement said:

to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

Click to expand...

I do not see anything about a car company in their mission statement. And if they keep improving both the cars and the solar products and energy storage systems at the rate they are going, they are going to certainly grow into their current valuation.

LTLFTcomposite said:

Regular car manufacturers don't understand what should be obvious wrt building out a charging network. They still think having some stations at dealers or relying on these ridiculous third party networks is somehow going to be effective.

I'm not so much amazed that Tesla figured it out; I'm amazed that nobody else has. I suspect the explanation lies in a corporate decision making machine made up of people that don't use their own products. Seriously do you think Mary Barra or Alan Mulally have ever taken a road trip and stopped at a Cracker Barrel, Wawa or Flying J? These people make decisions based on what people tell them and what they see on powerpoints. To them their strategies make perfect sense.

Click to expand...

Executives at other car companies have spent their entire careers with the energy-supply infrastructure as a given.

Wow SP just keeps going.

I wonder how close they are to getting some of these other vehicles into production (not just the Y but semi and roadster 2 as well) to support the growth story.

"Tesla is not a car company" is abject nonsense, often said as a way to justify a price that is only attributable to growing tech companies, which can grow by leaps and bounds, not constrained by unavoidable realities that exist for manufacturing companies. If you make a new app you can put it in the hands of millions of people for the cost of scaling a few servers. Impossible with a physical product.

Tesla is now at $538. Beyond laughable.

I guess I'll eat a ton of crow later this year when the 1 million robocar fleet is deployed.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

"Tesla is not a car company" is abject nonsense, often said as a way to justify a price that is only attributable to growing tech companies, which can grow by leaps and bounds, not constrained by unavoidable realities that exist for manufacturing companies. If you make a new app you can put it in the hands of millions of people for the cost of scaling a few servers. Impossible with a physical product.

Tesla is now at $538. Beyond laughable.

I guess I'll eat a ton of crow later this year when the 1 million robocar fleet is deployed.

Click to expand...

Tesla is a play for a potential monopoly.
Electric cars are not exactly cars. Cars have fully public "charging". Tesla has their own network, and if Tesla can get and keep a large enough market share they will own the market for electric cars as electric cars replace ICEs. Electric cars are cheaper to own now, and will be cheaper to buy in the near future. Much of that gain can be captured by Tesla, if Tesla has a monopoly.
Time is running out for the old car makers. Getting close to time to panic.

Predicting the future never sounds sane. Could be a world like smartphones where you have Apple and a bunch of others building hardware to some reference design and loading some other "big" OS/software.