GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:08 am

johnlocke wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:36 pm
In any large market there is a tendency toward consolidation into a few strong members at the expense of the smaller players. The larger companies either buy out smaller companies to gain mass or undersell them and drive them out of business using economies of scale. The field narrows down to a few strong companies fighting for market share. Tesla is disruptive in this regard because their product strips customers from a stagnant pool. Those customers are not going back to ICE's. The automobile industry is just starting to wake up to this fact and it scares them to hell. With hundreds of billions of dollars invested in equipment to build ICE's. they face the question of reworking or scrapping much of their equipment and converting to EV production or trying to continue selling an inferior product.

Tesla doesn't have any such problem and is open to new manufacturing techniques and unusual solutions (massive tents, anyone?). They brought nearly all their component manufacturing in-house to reduce costs and improve quality. The Gigafactory is the result of careful engineering and design choices. Tesla will only become a monopoly if old line automobile companies decide not to compete. So far the only company to recognize this is VW. Ford and GM are tentatively sticking their corporate toes in the water but refuse to commit. Nissan had an Idea but never really followed through and now they may be too late and have squandered their lead and reputation in the process.
Spot on post. The last sentence makes me want to throw up but is so factual.

After 50 years of personally supporting Nissan's quality vehicles it was hard to accept they introduced the world to EV ownership only to be the gateway to Tesla's success story.

I was looking forward to driving the Ariya that now may never see the light of day.

When the 2014 video was posted the other day by a long time EV promoter referring to the Leaf as a car ahead of it's time it hit Carlos was no Elon.

WetEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:46 am

johnlocke wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:36 pm
In any large market there is a tendency toward consolidation into a few strong members at the expense of the smaller players. The larger companies either buy out smaller companies to gain mass or undersell them and drive them out of business using economies of scale. The field narrows down to a few strong companies fighting for market share. Tesla is disruptive in this regard because their product strips customers from a stagnant pool. Those customers are not going back to ICE's. The automobile industry is just starting to wake up to this fact and it scares them to hell. With hundreds of billions of dollars invested in equipment to build ICE's. they face the question of reworking or scrapping much of their equipment and converting to EV production or trying to continue selling an inferior product.
Do include the proprietary charging network. This another tool for driving out competition. Far more powerful than economies of scale. Economy of scale is what allowed GM to reach 50% of the market, and restrict market share to avoid anti-trust action. One problem with monopolies and near monopolies ("oligopoly") is that they don't have to care... GM dominated...before imported cars that were better engineered. But would Toyota and others manage to get a foothold, if they couldn't fuel at US gas stations?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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johnlocke
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:53 am

cwerdna wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:35 pm
johnlocke wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:36 pm
They brought nearly all their component manufacturing in-house to reduce costs and improve quality.
Source? To what level do you define "components"? Let's set aside seats and batteries. Are you telling me they also manufacture their own glass, semiconductors, switch gear (e.g. switch and buttons), resistors, bearings, headlight and taillight assemblies, bulbs, capacitors, struts for the trunk/hatch and frunk, glass, wiring harnesses, struts, power steering racks (including boots, shafts, motors), AC compressors, heaters, hoses, tubes, tires (definitely not), wheels, fabrics, fasteners (e.g. plastic ones, screws, bolts, nuts, etc.)?
Read Sandy Munro's Teardown Analysis. Note where he talks about the number of parts with Tesla logos. The heating and cooling system is unique to Tesla. Yes, they buy components from other manufacturers. If you build a house do you have to mill all the lumber and forge the nails in order to say you built it yourself? I honestly don't know if Tesla builds their own switches but they do build the computer and all the wiring harnesses. They buy the shocks and tires but build the rest of the suspension system. I suspect the brakes are manufactured by third parties as well. The computer was designed in house by the way as was the vision system.
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johnlocke
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:09 am

WetEV wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:46 am
johnlocke wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:36 pm
In any large market there is a tendency toward consolidation into a few strong members at the expense of the smaller players. The larger companies either buy out smaller companies to gain mass or undersell them and drive them out of business using economies of scale. The field narrows down to a few strong companies fighting for market share. Tesla is disruptive in this regard because their product strips customers from a stagnant pool. Those customers are not going back to ICE's. The automobile industry is just starting to wake up to this fact and it scares them to hell. With hundreds of billions of dollars invested in equipment to build ICE's. they face the question of reworking or scrapping much of their equipment and converting to EV production or trying to continue selling an inferior product.
Do include the proprietary charging network. This another tool for driving out competition. Far more powerful than economies of scale. Economy of scale is what allowed GM to reach 50% of the market, and restrict market share to avoid anti-trust action. One problem with monopolies and near monopolies ("oligopoly") is that they don't have to care... GM dominated...before imported cars that were better engineered. But would Toyota and others manage to get a foothold, if they couldn't fuel at US gas stations?
The charging network is proprietary only in that other manufacturers declined to join. They were given an opportunity to join on reasonable terms. In any case we both know that most charging is done at home. CCS charging stations are becoming common now that VW is being forced to build them. Fault Ford and GM for failing to provide charging solutions sooner. Personally I would like to see Tesla add a CCS charging port for US vehicles like they do in Europe. Failing that, at least a CCS to Tesla converter plug would be nice. You are right in that I shouldn't have to rely on a single network.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
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WetEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:50 am

johnlocke wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:09 am
The charging network is proprietary only in that other manufacturers declined to join. They were given an opportunity to join on reasonable terms. In any case we both know that most charging is done at home. CCS charging stations are becoming common now that VW is being forced to build them. Fault Ford and GM for failing to provide charging solutions sooner. Personally I would like to see Tesla add a CCS charging port for US vehicles like they do in Europe. Failing that, at least a CCS to Tesla converter plug would be nice. You are right in that I shouldn't have to rely on a single network.
The terms were not reasonable.

Would you pay to give information about your future plans to the competition?

Would you pay to give control over part of your business to the competition?



I give Elon a lot of credit for realizing how important changing networks could be, and how charging networks can be a huge competitive advantage. It might well make him the first trillionare.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:55 pm

GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:08 am
...
After 50 years of personally supporting Nissan's quality vehicles it was hard to accept they introduced the world to EV ownership only to be the gateway to Tesla's success story.

I was looking forward to driving the Ariya that now may never see the light of day.

When the 2014 video was posted the other day by a long time EV promoter referring to the Leaf as a car ahead of it's time it hit Carlos was no Elon.
To me, Nissan always seemed of two minds concerning LEAF and I thought it odd until the mess with Carlos blew up.
Only a hunch, but I suspect the LEAF schizophrenia was evidence of the schism between Ghosn and Nissan executives as far back as LEAF launching, and only worsening over time. I think Ghosn himself had the vision but not the following.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

LeftieBiker
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:11 pm

I was looking forward to driving the Ariya that now may never see the light of day.
They are still moving ahead with the Ariya.
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johnlocke
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:58 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:50 am
johnlocke wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:09 am
The charging network is proprietary only in that other manufacturers declined to join. They were given an opportunity to join on reasonable terms. In any case we both know that most charging is done at home. CCS charging stations are becoming common now that VW is being forced to build them. Fault Ford and GM for failing to provide charging solutions sooner. Personally I would like to see Tesla add a CCS charging port for US vehicles like they do in Europe. Failing that, at least a CCS to Tesla converter plug would be nice. You are right in that I shouldn't have to rely on a single network.
The terms were not reasonable.

Would you pay to give information about your future plans to the competition?

Would you pay to give control over part of your business to the competition?



I give Elon a lot of credit for realizing how important changing networks could be, and how charging networks can be a huge competitive advantage. It might well make him the first trillionare.
What terms would you consider reasonable? Would you expect the competition to open their network without charge or control? What would you consider a reasonable fee to use that infrastructure? You know, the one that Tesla built with their own money? The one that GM and Ford said should be built by a third party and that they said they didn't need to contribute to? Ford and GM could have come to an agreement with Tesla if they wanted to. They just wanted EV's to go away, so why pay for something that only encouraged EV use. The CCS standard is only there to fragment the market further. It was chosen only because it wasn't Tesla or Chademo. Why have two standards when you can have three instead? Unless of course you intend to fragment the market further.
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Jamul, CA
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:31 pm

IEVS:
Tesla Is Now Consumer Reports' Highest Ranked U.S. Automotive Brand
https://insideevs.com/news/399837/tesla ... ports-u-s/


Moved up 8 places to #11, so I guess they're now the Spinal Tap of auto manufacturers. :D Good for them, and let's hope they can keep improving the QC and move up even further.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

nlspace
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:33 pm

Oh yeah they have a monopoly--a monopoly on patents for EVs.

Which of the auto makers posted all their patents online and said they would make them available to use for NO COST?

Everyone else is at least 10 years behind and they have no clue about lithium batteries, or charging, or thermal management, etc. They don't even know what it is that they need to know, and are too proud to admit it or accept a generous offer from a technology disrupter.

Change, adapt or die--the books are filled with the names of companies that thought they were too big to fail and refused to believe this lesson of history.

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