frontrangeleaf
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

danrjones wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:56 pm That's actually one solution to the "Great Filter", in the context of the Fermi paradox, and is one such possible resolution to the paradox

Every sentient species essentially kills itself off through greed.
OT: Can't speak for other sentient species, should they exist. Jury is still out on us, that much seems certain.

However, our improving understanding over the last 15 years or so of just how rare and unlikely the development of complex life, much less complex life capable of forming differentiated tissues, was - just now reaching the more mainstream science outlets - suggests other less sensational solutions for the Fermi Paradox.

What we typically mean with "life on Earth" - namely the stuff we can see, effectively - represents just a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of biodiversity on our planet, and all of it a rather late development. Simple life forms arose rather quickly after the formation of the oceans, as the evidence increasingly suggests, but it was another 2 billion years before complex single cells arose, and another 1.5 billion before those complex cells evolved into organisms. No differentiated tissues means no brain, no hands, no opposed thumbs. And simple life forms, despite their enormous head start, have never developed anything even beginning to approach the complexity of more complex life forms.

"Life on Earth," as we commonly refer to it, arose just 500 million years ago here. Primordial life, on the other hand, arose somewhere near 4000 million years ago. Not a trivial difference. And the mechanism for that step change from simple life to complex cells is apparently a single event. If that finding stands, it's a revolutionary insight.

TLDR: Expect to find simple life forms along the lines of bacteria and archaeans more or less everywhere conditions have been favorable for a few hundred million years. Fish? Amphibians? Oxygen producing plants? Not so much. Sentient beings? Once you get to complexity, we see lots of possibilities arise. The problem is getting to complexity.
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danrjones
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Yep, it is entirely possible (plausible) we are past the great filter. Who knows?
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LeftieBiker
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

I think that it's pretty self-evident that life that never evolves the means to manipulate the environment with tools is much more likely to survive for a very long time than life that becomes the equivalent of a 6 year old child with a tool kit. In that case it's Hide The Appliances time.
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frontrangeleaf
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

LeftieBiker wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:24 pm I think that it's pretty self-evident that life that never evolves the means to manipulate the environment with tools is much more likely to survive for a very long time than life that becomes the equivalent of a 6 year old child with a tool kit. In that case it's Hide The Appliances time.
Nicely said.

OT: For those interested in the folks behind the latest developments I referenced above, start here: https://nick-lane.net/publications/why- ... way-it-is/

-b
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johnlocke
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

OldManCan wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:32 pm
danrjones wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:45 pm Stock holders certainly didn't like the news.
One should look at who is buying the dip... Elon waves the wand, stock moves and millions are made along the way...
Ride the wave or get crushed by it. Making money in the stock market is easy, keeping it is way harder.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tesla owned 43,000 Bitcoin valued at $2 billion at the end of Q1.

Today's value would be $1 billion.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tesla raises prices, again
Select Model 3, S, Y, and X cars are affected
By Jon Porter@JonPorty Jun 16, 2022, 4:56am EDT
https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/16/2317 ... odel-3-y-s

Tesla's 10% staff cuts have kicked off, with ex-employees confirming on LinkedIn that they've been laid off
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-e ... gun-2022-6

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tesla is sending untrained employees to work on cars as service becomes problematic
https://electrek.co/2022/06/16/tesla-un ... oblematic/

Tesla (TSLA) lays off more employees, and hourly ones this time despite Elon Musk’s comments
https://electrek.co/2022/06/17/tesla-ts ... employees/

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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Musk says Tesla’s factories in Berlin and Texas are ‘gigantic money furnaces’
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/musk-sa ... llars.html
Tesla’s factories in Texas and Berlin are losing “billions of dollars right now” as supply chain disruptions hamper the electric vehicle giant’s ability to ramp up production, CEO Elon Musk said.
“Both Berlin and Austin factories are gigantic money furnaces right now. Okay? It should be like a giant roaring sound which is the sound of money on fire,” Musk said.
He said some of the tools required to make some cars are “stuck in a port in China” because of a resurgence of Covid there and the resulting lockdowns.

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johnlocke
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

cwerdna wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:41 am Musk says Tesla’s factories in Berlin and Texas are ‘gigantic money furnaces’
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/musk-sa ... llars.html
Tesla’s factories in Texas and Berlin are losing “billions of dollars right now” as supply chain disruptions hamper the electric vehicle giant’s ability to ramp up production, CEO Elon Musk said.
“Both Berlin and Austin factories are gigantic money furnaces right now. Okay? It should be like a giant roaring sound which is the sound of money on fire,” Musk said.
He said some of the tools required to make some cars are “stuck in a port in China” because of a resurgence of Covid there and the resulting lockdowns.
If you read the entire article, the problem comes down to batteries. Musk needs a 1000 batteries per car. If each factory is capable of producing 500000 cars per year and you have 4 factories, that's 2,000,000,000 (2 billion) batteries per year., Until he gets the battery lines up and at full production, he can't produce the cars. That's why he's after Panasonic and LG Chem and anyone else he can find to buy batteries from. It's also why he's looking at LFP batteries and existing 21700 production as stopgaps. Add to that the expectation that he'll build a couple of more plants in the next couple of years and you see where this leads.
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