Valdemar
Well-known member
Whatever, I'm done here. Let's continue to salivating.
I concur fully.desiv said:...
And it's great that you will tell your truth, and others will tell their truth.
But no one really should tell only one side of the truth..
I think it's good for people to know ALL the truth..
...
TimLee said:Even if I do get a capacity warranty replacement, I will honestly tell everyone that Nissan sold a defective product and that they did not properly support what they sold.
Sure, they'll last longer in ideal climates. Since when, though, is coastal SoCal considered an unreasonable climate?WetEV said:GRA said:cars routinely lasting only about three years for what they were bought for, leasing is the only reasonable option for most LEAF owners.
In hot places, perhaps. In very hot places I agree.
Seems like Leafs might last a lot longer in reasonable climates like Norway or Seattle. Like a decade longer.
Oh, but do keep up the Fool Cell Propaganda.
Don't you mean pre-2014 (or maybe pre-Lizard) Leafs? The current Lizard chemistry hasn't been out long enough to make this judgement.GRA said:Which doesn't change the fact that outside of benign climates, _current_ LEAFs are three year cars for most people, and certainly not five, which is why they're worth so little used.
OrientExpress said:TomT said:Mark my words: There will never - NEVER - be a Nissan battery upgrade for the current version of the Leaf!
That is correct, the key word is Nissan upgrade, however a 3rd party upgrade product is a possibility. It won't be cheap, and volumes will be very low.
minispeed said:OrientExpress said:TomT said:Mark my words: There will never - NEVER - be a Nissan battery upgrade for the current version of the Leaf!
That is correct, the key word is Nissan upgrade, however a 3rd party upgrade product is a possibility. It won't be cheap, and volumes will be very low.
There are far too many hurdles to setting up a business with an aftermarket battery replacement for the Leaf. The pack is way too big to ship out to customers and also ship back the cases for core returns. Even in leaf hot beds with lots of cars that can be driven to the shop I doubt anyone would want to start this task when the market is guaranteed to dry up when the first gen cars get scrapped. If the second gen cars are 150+ miles with heat resistant cells then any work they do on the first gen won't be any good when the second gen cars start aging as they should all do 100+ miles.
Even if commercial wholesale prices of packs gets to $200/kWh that's $4800 just to get back up to 24.
So at least $5K on a car that's worth no more than $7-9K. This also at a time when we'll probably start seeing off lease 2017s.
I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm not saying there won't be people who want it. I just think that no one will try because the market will be so small and if someone does try it will be almost guaranteed to fail.
As for Nissan providing the pack..... they can loose a few buyers who want to buy 3 cars over 30 years in favour of more who will then own 5-10 cars during that same period because the new pack is only in the new car.
Quite so. OTOH, who would take Nissan's word for it, when they haven't improved the warranty at all? Even with no change in warranty (and IMO they should go to at least 8 yrs/100k to match the competition), the 2nd gen will have some value for commuting to a fair number of people for a decade or more.jhm614 said:Don't you mean pre-2014 (or maybe pre-Lizard) Leafs? The current Lizard chemistry hasn't been out long enough to make this judgement.GRA said:Which doesn't change the fact that outside of benign climates, _current_ LEAFs are three year cars for most people, and certainly not five, which is why they're worth so little used.
GRA said:Sure, they'll last longer in ideal climates. Since when, though, is coastal SoCal considered an unreasonable climate?
THIS. This, this, this. Remember that LEAF, Tesla and i-MiEV are pretty much all that's available nationally. In bang-for-buck, NOTHING touches the LEAF in much of the country.WetEV said:Southern California isn't the world, do remember that your words are read outside Southern California.
Sure my words are read outside of So Cal (I'm in NorCal, BTW). They may be read in all of California, which makes up 45% of the PEV sales in the country. And in the southwest, Texas, the central plains states, the southeast, the Mid-Atlantic states and on up to New England and around the Great Lakes, across the northern plains states and back to the PNW. The question is, what % of the country, and even more importantly, what % of the country where LEAFs have been widely sold, is going to see batteries lasting 10 years with reasonable use remaining? Atlanta? Phoenix? Texas? Florida? The Carolinas? DC? Outside of the PNW, the northern tier states and maybe New England, battery degradation is going to be a severe problem in the U.S., and the northern tier states have such reduced winter range that even moderate degradation will make them non-viable.WetEV said:GRA said:Sure, they'll last longer in ideal climates. Since when, though, is coastal SoCal considered an unreasonable climate?
Suppose the situation was reversed, and Leafs were doing great in SoCal, and not so good in the cooler parts of the country. You owned, and loved a Leaf, and I wouldn't stop saying how horrible the Leaf was, and how the batteries kept losing capacity rapidly, without ever mentioning that it was different elsewhere.
Southern California isn't the world, do remember that your words are read outside Southern California.
Based on how batteries have done elsewhere, I've got a very reasonable expectation that it will be over 10 years and over 100k miles before my battery is down to 70% of original capacity, which isn't a disaster to me as I've have and will continue to plan on less capacity as the car gets older. And if I have an option for 30kWh battery retrofit in 10 years? Cool.
ishiyakazuo said:THIS. This, this, this. Remember that LEAF, Tesla and i-MiEV are pretty much all that's available nationally. In bang-for-buck, NOTHING touches the LEAF in much of the country.WetEV said:Southern California isn't the world, do remember that your words are read outside Southern California.
Newporttom said:As some who owns, and is probably going to qualify for a new battery, offering backwards compatibility might offer a new revenue stream. I'd gladly pay $2,000 to upgrade from 24 to 30 as part of battery replacement.
I don't know that we know that is the case with the Lizard pack tho...GRA said:So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMN2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.
desiv said:I don't know that we know that is the case with the Lizard pack tho...GRA said:So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMN2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.
Early reports seem to show it handling the heat better.. (Not sure we have enough time on the packs to know for sure tho...)
I do feel bad for early adopters in hotter climates and wish Nissan handled it better, but I'd still prefer that a simpler system without active TMS will work.
desiv
(Also, I don't know if I'd call the parts of the US with moderate climates "the few parts of the country", but that's a matter of perspective.. ;-) )
minispeed said:desiv said:I don't know that we know that is the case with the Lizard pack tho...GRA said:So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMN2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.
Early reports seem to show it handling the heat better.. (Not sure we have enough time on the packs to know for sure tho...)
I do feel bad for early adopters in hotter climates and wish Nissan handled it better, but I'd still prefer that a simpler system without active TMS will work.
desiv
(Also, I don't know if I'd call the parts of the US with moderate climates "the few parts of the country", but that's a matter of perspective.. ;-) )
After a year I think it's safe to say that the lizard packs will live up to or be very close to what Nissan promised with capacity loss originally. I doubt we`ll see many if any packs that even come close to warrantee issues for capacity. 1 year of heavy use on mine with 0% loss (built May 2014 delivered July 23rd).
Active TMS has its advantages right now but ultimatelyit can be engineered so it`s not needed that`s a good thing for the industry and for us.
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