'16 30 kWh pack - backwards compatibility and warranty?

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desiv said:
GRA said:
..but until we have confirmation that one does in the whole variety of climate that a continent-spanning country like the U.S. offers, that's not the way to go. .
Not sure I agree there, especially during the early adopter phase..
I don't think Nissan has to release 1 car for all people, and especially early in the tech life cycle..

You can do that, but the cost will be high, so you're going to have to make it a high end vehicle, and that part of the market has someone in it at the moment.. ;-)

desiv
A Chevy Spark EV has a liquid-cooled and heated TMS and lists for $26k, not exactly a high end vehicle, so it's not as if such a car was too expensive to do. Personally, I wish GM had stuck with LiFePO4 chemistry, but understand why they made the switch.
 
GRA said:
A Chevy Spark EV has a liquid-cooled and heated TMS and lists for $26k, not exactly a high end vehicle, so it's not as if such a car was too expensive to do. Personally, I wish GM had stuck with LiFePO4 chemistry, but understand why they made the switch.
I didn't mean just liquid cooling would be expensive. I meant the whole EV with everything people need, like a 200+ mile range.

The liquid cooling I just see as something to avoid if you can to keep the car as simple as you can.
Fingers crossed that will work, but either way...

desiv
 
nerys said:
Not offering backwards compatibility will very probably turn me off future nissan purchases. I don't like being left out in the dark so to speak if it is technically and reasonable possible. I don't mind paying an extra $1000 for the higher capacity back.

The way I look at it is: Nissan is already going to have to GIVE me a free Lizard pack when mine drops another 7%. Supposedly, they are "losing money" on these warranty replacements, so here is an opportunity for them to turn a liability into a profit by offering me the 30 kWh pack at an upgrade price. As long as the price isn't too ridiculous, I'd go for it, as I plan on keeping my Leaf for a LONG time, and 25% more range would make it almost perfect for me. Nissan makes a profit instead of taking a loss on the warranty replacement, and I'm a very happy camper again! :D Its a win-win!
 
keydiver said:
nerys said:
Not offering backwards compatibility will very probably turn me off future nissan purchases. I don't like being left out in the dark so to speak if it is technically and reasonable possible. I don't mind paying an extra $1000 for the higher capacity back.

The way I look at it is: Nissan is already going to have to GIVE me a free Lizard pack when mine drops another 7%. Supposedly, they are "losing money" on these warranty replacements, so here is an opportunity for them to turn a liability into a profit by offering me the 30 kWh pack at an upgrade price. As long as the price isn't too ridiculous, I'd go for it, as I plan on keeping my Leaf for a LONG time, and 25% more range would make it almost perfect for me. Nissan makes a profit instead of taking a loss on the warranty replacement, and I'm a very happy camper again! :D Its a win-win!

Completely agree!
 
GRA said:
A Chevy Spark EV has a liquid-cooled and heated TMS and lists for $26k, not exactly a high end vehicle, so it's not as if such a car was too expensive to do. Personally, I wish GM had stuck with LiFePO4 chemistry, but understand why they made the switch.
If you only manufacture a few of them - you can subsidize heavily. Remember they get valuable ZEV credits.
 
desiv said:
GRA said:
A Chevy Spark EV has a liquid-cooled and heated TMS and lists for $26k, not exactly a high end vehicle, so it's not as if such a car was too expensive to do. Personally, I wish GM had stuck with LiFePO4 chemistry, but understand why they made the switch.
I didn't mean just liquid cooling would be expensive. I meant the whole EV with everything people need, like a 200+ mile range.

The liquid cooling I just see as something to avoid if you can to keep the car as simple as you can.
Fingers crossed that will work, but either way...

desiv
Your implication was that providing a liquid-cooled TMS would boost the cost of a PEV so far above a comparable one without it that it would be in a different price class, and that isn't the case. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that adding a full TMS to a Spark boosts the price by $1k. That may be relatively a lot up front, but if it also increases the usable life of the battery by say 3 years, most _buyers_ would consider that an excellent trade-off. Two or three year lessees probably wouldn't care, unless the lack of a battery TMS so increased the degradation rate that the car became unusable for what they bought it for well short of the lease expiration - gee, that sounds familiar.

Re evnow's comment about subsidies, the Volt also uses a liquid-cooled TMS, and it's been built in more than small numbers (by PEV standards). I suspect the Bolt or whatever it will be called will also have one, but that remains to be seen. At the moment, all companies' PEVs remain company-subsidized regardless of whether they have a TMS or not.
 
^ Cost isn't the only, or even major, issue: not having TMS means not having a extra system in the car to leak or break or maintain. It also saves on energy use.

Nevertheless, while having batteries robust enough to not need TMS would be a worthy goal, it appears that it remains necessary for best battery life with current battery technology. In the case of the battery chemistry used by Tesla, the TMS is also absolutely required for safety.
 
Give me 150 mile range and i wont need to even think of tms savings. They would cease to be relevant even with degredation over time.

With a solid 150m i would have a solid 75m range at 0 degrees with heat 100,000 miles down th3 road.
 
GRA said:
Your implication was that providing a liquid-cooled TMS would boost the cost of a PEV so far above a comparable one without it that it would be in a different price class, and that isn't the case.
No it wasn't.
My implication was that active TMS is more expensive than passive.
And that, in addition to other things, like range in the area that makes people comfortable, would raise the price much higher..

That's all I was saying..

desiv
 
desiv said:
GRA said:
Your implication was that providing a liquid-cooled TMS would boost the cost of a PEV so far above a comparable one without it that it would be in a different price class, and that isn't the case.
No it wasn't.
My implication was that active TMS is more expensive than passive.
And that, in addition to other things, like range in the area that makes people comfortable, would raise the price much higher..

That's all I was saying..

desiv
Increasing the size of a pack will boost the cost of any car with or without TMS, so it's not directly related to the issue except as follows: Slowing the rate of degradation by use of a TMS may allow the use of a smaller pack to achieve the same range over a given lifespan (not initially, obviously), so the LCO cost may be lower. Or higher. Or the same. Or, the larger pack may be combined with the TMS to boost both range and life, at a higher upfront cost, but achieving greater capability and longer usable life. The question is how much value will people put on the various choices.
 
I was going to read all this before posting but just couldn't do it...

So why is Nissan doing this?

**personal conjecture only here**

Suppose, you have a better chemistry that was proven in a working prototype but took a bit to get it to a production ready stage? but you finally got there and you really needed to get it out to the public because you could hear the footsteps of the competition hot on your heels?

Now this would be a good thing but not completely in sync with your upgrade time line and what makes it worse is you have thousands of older modules in the various stages of production coming out and so you need to do something with them, right?

But, as luck would have it; the old and the new are nearly the same in size and weight! and this is a good thing, right?

its actually THE thing that makes the 30 kwh pack in a 2016 possible because now, an acceleration of your upgrade schedule (besides being impossible) is not necessary. After all, a complete redesign of the whole car is not an overnight thing.

Now, the old packaging, along with the old design will work with the new pack. Obviously, some changes will be made but the footprint, size and weight will not.

So would it be feasible to make this 30 kwh pack retrofittable? (ya, new word) well, of course it would especially since Nissan will have to gamble that the existing batches of 24 kwh packs already in the production pipeline will be enough to cover all the new 2016 S trims plus any warranty exchanges since they will not be making any more of them (I predict that new batches of 24 kwh packs has probably already stopped btw) so not having a contingency plan would be extremely foolish since these packs can't be hand built in custom lots or anything like that. In fact; battery pack manufacturing resembles an microprocessor FAB more than a car plant.

an article to peruse. notice the publication date

http://www.nec.com/en/press/201210/global_20121009_02.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nissan will have to gamble that the existing batches of 24 kwh packs already in the production pipeline will be enough to cover all the new 2016 S trims plus any warranty exchanges since they will not be making any more of them (I predict that new batches of 24 kwh packs has probably already stopped btw) so not having a contingency plan would be extremely foolish since these packs can't be hand built in custom lots or anything like that. In fact; battery pack manufacturing resembles an microprocessor FAB more than a car plant.

Regarding this, it is not unheard of to delivery hardware that is software limited. In the scenario you described, Nissan could simply start putting 30 kWh packs into the S trim and software limit them to 24kWh. Any lucky owners of such a car would see the advantage of less / better masked degradation. It would also solve the problem of continuing to provide 24kWh packs, if they actually have stopped building them. It may be a cheaper option than building both packs side-by-side.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nissan will have to gamble that the existing batches of 24 kwh packs already in the production pipeline will be enough to cover all the new 2016 S trims plus any warranty exchanges since they will not be making any more of them (I predict that new batches of 24 kwh packs has probably already stopped btw) so not having a contingency plan would be extremely foolish since these packs can't be hand built in custom lots or anything like that. In fact; battery pack manufacturing resembles an microprocessor FAB more than a car plant.

Regarding this, it is not unheard of to delivery hardware that is software limited. In the scenario you described, Nissan could simply start putting 30 kWh packs into the S trim and software limit them to 24kWh. Any lucky owners of such a car would see the advantage of less / better masked degradation. It would also solve the problem of continuing to provide 24kWh packs, if they actually have stopped building them. It may be a cheaper option than building both packs side-by-side.

that won't happen I think. I have no idea how many 24 kwh packs are already in the production pipeline but its not likely to be an insignificant number and it will be much more than warranty needs but I do see them as a future upgrade/warranty exchange simply because making two packs won't make sense.

the other possibility would be an extreme price cut to keep the 24 kwh option but I just don't see how they can make money on that since the module costs would not be that much lower. The issue with batteries is the time it takes to build one. Its not a "5 minute" assembly line average. they are built in batches that take a long time. Each pack is tied up in the process from day one to the end. Can't rush the process no matter what so have to think batches are pretty large
 
This will be their policy in 12 months with warranty replacement packs for Leaf.

If your battery drops below 9 bars on your leaf we will gladly replace your battery with a "lizard" pack. This will be a 24kwh pack that has 9 bars of capacity or higher. We do not guarantee that this will be a brand new pack. If you would like to purchase a pack upgrade to the 30kwh pack, we will make a new 30kwh pack available to you at an upgrade price of $2500 for the pack plus an additional fee for the required mounting hardware required.

As was said before, this gives them the ability to make some money off your warranty replacement as they will be able to walk away with $2500 + some yet defined labor/hardware that is necessary for the 30kwh pack. The reason you would want to do this over a new 24kwh pack is that the free warranty pack may not be at full capacity. As of now they are giving out brand new packs, but I'd be willing to bet that they are starting to get some refurb packs available from 2015 models with other problems. All they need to do is install a few decreased capacity (even 11 bar) packs in a few warranty replacements, it gets out on the blogs and nobody will take the risk, they'll all get 30kwh packs.
 
File this under, "How Nissan can piss off even more people and degrade their image even further than they did with the battery degradation/capacity warranty fiasco!"

tkdbrusco said:
This will be their policy in 12 months with warranty replacement packs for Leaf.

If your battery drops below 9 bars on your leaf we will gladly replace your battery with a "lizard" pack. This will be a 24kwh pack that has 9 bars of capacity or higher. We do not guarantee that this will be a brand new pack. If you would like to purchase a pack upgrade to the 30kwh pack, we will make a new 30kwh pack available to you at an upgrade price of $2500 for the pack plus an additional fee for the required mounting hardware required.

As was said before, this gives them the ability to make some money off your warranty replacement as they will be able to walk away with $2500 + some yet defined labor/hardware that is necessary for the 30kwh pack. The reason you would want to do this over a new 24kwh pack is that the free warranty pack may not be at full capacity. As of now they are giving out brand new packs, but I'd be willing to bet that they are starting to get some refurb packs available from 2015 models with other problems. All they need to do is install a few decreased capacity (even 11 bar) packs in a few warranty replacements, it gets out on the blogs and nobody will take the risk, they'll all get 30kwh packs.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
...So would it be feasible to make this 30 kwh pack retrofittable? (ya, new word) well, of course it would especially since Nissan will have to gamble that the existing batches of 24 kwh packs already in the production pipeline will be enough to cover all the new 2016 S trims plus any warranty exchanges since they will not be making any more of them (I predict that new batches of 24 kwh packs has probably already stopped btw) so not having a contingency plan would be extremely foolish since these packs can't be hand built in custom lots or anything like that. In fact; battery pack manufacturing resembles an microprocessor FAB more than a car plant...
I don't buy the notion that 24 kWh battery production has, or will, cease. My guess is that the new 24 kWh battery will just use fewer cans than the 30 kWh battery, with spacers taking up the rest of the space. Assembling 24 kWh batteries and 30 kWh batteries would be fairly simple. As I understand it, it is the individual cell pouches that take considerable time to manufacture and test in batches.

Yes, I'm just guessing too!
 
dgpcolorado said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
...So would it be feasible to make this 30 kwh pack retrofittable? (ya, new word) well, of course it would especially since Nissan will have to gamble that the existing batches of 24 kwh packs already in the production pipeline will be enough to cover all the new 2016 S trims plus any warranty exchanges since they will not be making any more of them (I predict that new batches of 24 kwh packs has probably already stopped btw) so not having a contingency plan would be extremely foolish since these packs can't be hand built in custom lots or anything like that. In fact; battery pack manufacturing resembles an microprocessor FAB more than a car plant...
I don't buy the notion that 24 kWh battery production has, or will, cease. My guess is that the new 24 kWh battery will just use fewer cans than the 30 kWh battery, with spacers taking up the rest of the space. Assembling 24 kWh batteries and 30 kWh batteries would be fairly simple. As I understand it, it is the individual cell pouches that take considerable time to manufacture and test in batches.

Yes, I'm just guessing too!

This is exactly what I suspected and said earlier. I bet the new lizard pack actually uses smaller cells and both are essentially the same guts.
 
tkdbrusco said:
This is exactly what I suspected and said earlier. I bet the new lizard pack actually uses smaller cells and both are essentially the same guts.

In the OEM LiIon world (loose cells) the normal developmental path is the same form factor/package size will see incremental improvements in capacity (AH) each year. Same cost, same package.

It's a chemistry/mfg thing... not a packaging thing normally.

This does not mean that there are not occasional packaging breakthroughs, etc. Just that it's very expensive to change packaging, while the "process" part of mfg is often where improvements occur.

So my bet is similar cell size and config in Nissan packs. Just higher capacity. And if used in older leaf's, no consumer visible changes. They just don't degrade as much. And maybe have more hidden reserve.

If they expose the change with a capacity/range increase... then everyone clamors for retrofit/replacement.

I also believe this means assumptions about exposed but undocumented/unsupported engineering data (GID's, etc) may no longer be valid. I already suspect this may be the case based on 3 different 2013 leaf experiences I'm aware of.

Never underestimate the Japanese "Quality Circle" approach for process/product improvement and in year mfg/process changes. My bet is the battery capacity has slowly improved, but we won't see it surface in stated range improvements except as particular refresh periods. (Model year change, etc)

The other thing I've learned from radio engineering for LiIon/Poly cells is that the ever improving energy density may not be apparent if the protection & balancing circuitry does not expose it. Especially when there are capacity (fuel gage/GOM) type calculations. They may still think they have the old capacity. Remember, there is no direct measure of capacity of a cell except to cycle it and *accurately* measure the Voltage/Current from full to discharged. SOC is normally measured by voltage, but the capacity (AH) is derived from there based on assumptions. Yes, they can measure charge/discharge current and associated voltage curves. But most do not bother, and most current measurement approaches just estimate current drain via magnetic field as to put accurate measurement in place wastes energy (shunt based current measurement).

Some devices do not make capacity assumptions, and measure real world usage to develop those assumptions for fuel gauge usage. Others use a stated capacity model, and would never know if higher capacity batteries were installed as they don't even try to measure real world apparent capacity. Most laptop chargers/circuits are like this. My read is that Nissan has a very conservative "stated capacity/drain" approach.

As an aside, my 2015 GOM is nearly always showing 105-106 miles range at full charge. Then drops to what I'd expect once driving. And then is nearly always more conservative in projection than reality. IE: I nearly always arrive at destination with more than it projected. I don't trust any of it until I get more miles, but this is a very different behavior than we saw with the 2013.
 
Pinzgauer said:
...Never underestimate the Japanese "Quality Circle" approach for process/product improvement and in year mfg/process changes. My bet is the battery capacity has slowly improved, but we won't see it surface in stated range improvements except as particular refresh periods...
We've probably seen this already, in the results of the AVTA 2013 LEAF battery capacity tests.

...Initial capacity (tested at ~500 miles) ranging from 23.6 to 24.6 kWh, averaging 24.2...
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=18555" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Which was a ~3.4% actual capacity increase over the ~23.4 kWh tested average of the 2011 LEAFs.

IMO, it's very likely there have been additional increases in The LEAF's average battery capacity since 2013.
 
That is ehat my 2012 does. Shows 103 to 105 on the gom (yeah i wish) and rapidly drops to the 88 or so miles that is more realistic to reality
 
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