'16 30 kWh pack - backwards compatibility and warranty?

[chuck101]

I think the 2016 car will use the same pack as current, but add capacity in the otherwise unused rear portion of the car under hatch floor. (Where guys are modding in spare tires currently.)
It appears there is room there for several cells depending on how they package them and how low they go with the rear floor. At least 6 cells, probably more.

New, higher capacity batteries and backwards compatibility should not be a concern of Nissan. (Or you as a current owner) It is silly for them to even consider this. They should care only for engineering and tooling. It costs money to design and fit a battery, so if they can add capacity without changing the current car, this is good and cheap for them. There is no backwards compatibility between current gasoline cars.
For example: You get an Altima with a gas engine... (Which will eventually fail, just like your battery) Nissan comes out with a new or refreshed Altima with a different engine. No one is bitching about the new engine not being compatible with their current car. I don't know why we are even discussing this. It is a dumb argument really.
I own a Leaf. I don't give two shits whether my 2012 car can fit a bigger battery in the future. If it does, cool. If it doesn't, well it might just give me a reason to upgrade. As it is, I am VERY happy with my 2012 car bought for a really solid value at 12 grand for a real car and not some Mitsubishi imev ugly ass crap or something too expesive like the Tesla. This lets me play with the technology at a price I can stomach. I will drive it till I am sick of it and then look to see what is available at that time. If I put a new battery in it for 5500 or 6500 or buy a refurb battery at some point in the future from a reseller, so be it.
This is a known replacement that I can plan for and buy as I have money saved. This is still much different than an ICE car, where one day my gas engine just blows up or trans just blows up or some other unexpected, and costly repair sneaks up on me.

Or maybe I **** can the car and use the battery to accept power from my solar panels and run my house for the next 10 years. Who knows. What I am trying to say here is you guys need to chill out. If you can't handle an electric car without upgrade options getting you all bent out of shape, sell it and get a minivan, but quit your bitching.

 

[abasile]

The reality is that you won't see a significant wave of people looking to buy new packs for roughly 2-3 years (when MY13-14 cars start hitting degradation and when MY11-12 cars become completely unusable). At this point, the manufacturing costs will have decreased and the current price structure of the replacement packs may yield them a profit.

At least at the current battery prices, notwithstanding the fact that they are subsidized, I don't think we will ever see many customers paying for replacements. How many people will spend thousands on a used car that's only worth $8000 or less at auction? I can tell you that, as long as the vehicle is cosmetically okay and drivable, no dealer would ever do that.

As dgpcolorado suggested upthread, it seems much more likely that used LEAFs will filter down to people with smaller range requirements, possibly in cooler climates.

It also seems possible that, if a battery pack completely fails outside the 8 year / 100K mile warranty and the car is consequently worth next to nothing, someone might choose to install a new pack in it. But even there, the economics seem very questionable; it probably makes more sense to "part it out".

This line of thinking reinforces to me that EV battery systems should be designed to last the lifetime of the car. Nissan has in the past stated that this would be the case with the LEAF (but they failed with the 2011-2014(?) chemistry).

Although the thought of being able to upgrade the battery is very nice and may help sell more cars, when push comes to shove, most of us are guided by the economics in this. If we really get tired of the range of our 2011 LEAF within the next few years and there's no outright pack failure covered under the 8 year / 100K mile warranty, the most sensible choice will probably be to pick up a used 2015+ LEAF. The 2011 LEAF might be sold for peanuts to a poor student who's wise enough to understand that they only really need to drive short distances and that they can save on "fueling" and maintenance.

 

[nerys]

You are probably right for average joe.

The economics make perfect sense to me. $6000 for battery or $24000 for gasoline. No brainer to me especially when i will do that 100,000 miles in 3 or so years

Alas i am an outlier. The exception.

Fingers crossed i can get a 30kw pack.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

I think the 2016 car will use the same pack as current, but add capacity in the otherwise unused rear portion of the car under hatch floor. (Where guys are modding in spare tires currently.)
It appears there is room there for several cells depending on how they package them and how low they go with the rear floor. At least 6 cells, probably more.

Actually, IMO, if this is the case, that's actually a huge positive. It might mean that Nissan can say "want a spare 6kWh? We've got our add-on pack upgrade, for the low low price of $2000." In fact, it makes a hell of a lot of sense for Nissan to do this, and here's why: Take a car that's degraded down to ~75%, slap this add-on pack in, and bam, you've got your near-100% original capacity restored, without having to replace the entire pack. I could see Nissan doing that to augment a bunch of lease returns that have suffered capacity loss, and thus not have to replace the entire large battery.
The more I think about this, if Nissan didn't do this, they screwed the pooch.

 

[desiv]

In fact, it makes a hell of a lot of sense for Nissan to do this, and here's why: Take a car that's degraded down to ~75%, slap this add-on pack in, and bam, you've got your near-100% original capacity restored, without having to replace the entire pack..

But remember, Nissan is also thinking that every extended battery sold might be a sale of a new car lost.

It's not quite so simple as it just makes sense to decrease lease returns.
What's the percentage of potential losses on lease returns compared to possible new car sales???

Lot's of potentials and possibles there.. It's not quite so clear cut..

desiv

 

[ishiyakazuo]

In fact, it makes a hell of a lot of sense for Nissan to do this, and here's why: Take a car that's degraded down to ~75%, slap this add-on pack in, and bam, you've got your near-100% original capacity restored, without having to replace the entire pack..

But remember, Nissan is also thinking that every extended battery sold might be a sale of a new car lost.

It's not quite so simple as it just makes sense to decrease lease returns.
What's the percentage of potential losses on lease returns compared to possible new car sales???

It could be a heck of a lot, given how cheap Nissan is unloading these off-lease cars at auction!
I'm just saying, if I was Nissan, I would be saying to people "Hey, rather than $5000 off the residual, why not take this battery and keep leasing the existing car?" $2k for the add'l battery pack would pay itself back easily in 1 year of lease payments, and if you think about it, it might last longer with higher capacity than getting an all-new pack, given that the degradation that occurs hits hardest early on. Even if they get the car back a year later, they've probably still got a car to sell with higher total capacity than they would have if they got it back a year sooner and had to foot the bill on the battery pack add-on themselves. And I would be in my Nissan dealer ASAP to get that 6kWh pack scheduled to be added. I'd GLADLY pay $2k for an extra 6kWh on my existing battery, and Nissan would have one happy customer.

 

[Reddy]

Well, it took me a while, but I found the quote that I thought might be relevant, highlighted in red. It's from the following locked thread:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13331&p=303727#p303727

TaylorSF: I think I understand your question. You're saying, once you sign up for replacement, you're looking for assurance not above 9 bars, but at a higher capacity level.

We are still finalizing details of the program, and we can take that kind of request into consideration. As it stands today, the program only provides replacement of the pack the second time at a point when the capacity drops below 9 bars.

At the end of ownership, the pack does still belong to Nissan. We expect that the program will be transferred to the new owner, who would need to agree as part of any sale to the existing payment terms for continued use and possession of the battery.

On your last point, we expect to offer the latest tech that is compatible with the owner's LEAF at the time of sign-up for around $100 per month. We are trying to maintain backward compatibility as we develop future technology.

--

Well it is something - does this mean I can't have my battery exchanged to newer technology or similar in the event there is no new technology until my battery displays 8 bars or less? What is the plan for those of us that need more than that - a battery with 8 bars is just as useless to me as one with 10.

What happens at the end of ownership? Is this product replacement or does the pack belong to Nissan and is a separate part from the car itself. In other words, who owns the pack at the time the vehicle is sold?

Should the newer technology mentioned come with a larger range is it Nissan's intention to charge a higher price than $100?

So, read into it what every you can. It sounds like they "expect" to offer the latest battery technology that is compatible, and will make an effort to provide backward compatibility in future developments, but it isn't a guarantee. Pretty much reads like standard disclaimer-talk. So I wait until 2020+ for my in-town EV to degrade into oblivion. I will hope for a 48 KWH replacement battery, but not expect one. I wonder which will come first? A 48 KWH replacement battery or a quick charge station in Mattawa, WA that connect us up to the rest of the WA State electric highway system? Hmmm, I'll bet Tesla comes out with the Model 3 first :lol:

 

[nerys]

I hope first gen leaf prices plummet horribly. I drool over getting 2 cheap leafs and making an electric 100m range minivan. That is what i really really want.

 

[GRA]

So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMN2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.

I don't know that we know that is the case with the Lizard pack tho...
Early reports seem to show it handling the heat better.. (Not sure we have enough time on the packs to know for sure tho...)

No, we don't have enough time on the packs, so everything on them is speculation (and Nissan's say-so, which sells at a discount) and can't be taken at face value until we have enough real-world experience to confirm or disprove Nissan's claims.

I do feel bad for early adopters in hotter climates and wish Nissan handled it better, but I'd still prefer that a simpler system without active TMS will work.

Everyone prefers that "a simpler system without active TMS will work," but until we have confirmation that one does in the whole variety of climate that a continent-spanning country like the U.S. offers, that's not the way to go. Unless, of course, companies are willing to limit sales to only those areas of the country where "a simpler system without active TMS will work." Nissan had that option but chose not to take it, with results that are apparent. You haven't been around here that long, so let me include the original sig I used here to give you an idea of how I believe things should be handled (and how I did myself when I was doing off-grid AE a couple of decades ago): "When nurturing a new technology, under-promise and over-deliver, rather than the opposite."

IMO, this is what GM did with the Volt's pack, being very conservative with both their design and claims (while using essentially the same chemistry as the LEAF), and happy, satisfied customers who are eager to proselytize others and who are eagerly waiting to upgrade to the next generation are the result. Nissan, OTOH, has quite a few dissatisfied customers and former proselytizers who are spreading their dissatisfaction far and wide, and who will probably never buy another Nissan product for the rest of their lives. Which approach do you think makes/made better long-term business sense?

(Also, I don't know if I'd call the parts of the US with moderate climates "the few parts of the country", but that's a matter of perspective.. ;-) )

It's a question of population density as well as sales/leases. The PNW (more accurately, the part of it west of the Cascades) makes up a relatively high % of BEV sales and BEV sales as a % of total sales, but a relatively small proportion of the country. Similarly, the climate along Highway 1 in California is also ideal for BEVs, but few people live there (outside of SF).

 

[ishiyakazuo]

I hope first gen leaf prices plummet horribly. I drool over getting 2 cheap leafs and making an electric 100m range minivan. That is what i really really want.

To be honest, me too. I'd buy one for my folks.

 

[hillzofvalp]

Guys, Nissan is not going to reduce the pack voltage by 10-25% and remove the usefulness of all the chademo stations that are designed for higher voltage. Please eliminate that from the possibilities.

 

[desiv]

..but until we have confirmation that one does in the whole variety of climate that a continent-spanning country like the U.S. offers, that's not the way to go. .

Not sure I agree there, especially during the early adopter phase..
I don't think Nissan has to release 1 car for all people, and especially early in the tech life cycle..

You can do that, but the cost will be high, so you're going to have to make it a high end vehicle, and that part of the market has someone in it at the moment.. ;-)

desiv

 

[ydnas7]

...
(1) I expect that the 30kwh pack is the same cells and chemistry as the current 24kwh Lizard pack and also the same chemistry used in the forthcoming 2017 Gen2 packs. This will make it such mass production can lower the price of the packs over time. ...

Nissan LEAF packs are 2 Parallel, 96 Series packs (ie 48 modules, each module 2P 2S)
To increment this would be say 3 Parallel, 96 Series (ie 50% increment)
so the one thing that can deduced is that the 30kWh pack uses different cells to the 24kWh pack.
Even a secondary pack would be in 12kWh sizes (unless some funky DC to DC boosters were used), and secondary pack would duplicate the cost of having a secondary BMS....)

about all that can be currently determined is that the 30kWH pack uses different cells, perhaps higher Ah (LG), or perhaps higher V (NEC).

The lizard pack is NEC's AESC cells.

It would be great if Nissan offered a secondary pack (ie 24 modules) but, that would entail both an additional BMS and additional safety crash test etc, ie it would far more expensive than what an additional 24 modules would cost in the main pack (gen II)

 

[DaveEV]

So I wait until 2020+ for my in-town EV to degrade into oblivion. I will hope for a 48 KWH replacement battery, but not expect one. I wonder which will come first? A 48 KWH replacement battery or a quick charge station in Mattawa, WA that connect us up to the rest of the WA State electric highway system? Hmmm, I'll bet Tesla comes out with the Model 3 first :lol:

Waiting, is exactly what people will do if Nissan doesn't say whether the 30 kWh pack is backwards compatible or not. As someone else mentioned earlier, even if they do make it backwards compatible, it's very likely that actual sales will be very low, just like actual sales of replacement packs now are very slow.

The announcement of a 24 kWh battery pack sales price was very widely applauded by the LEAF community simply because it made it possible for people to make a reasonable calculation as to whether or not a fresh battery was worth it to them or not.

Nissan could simply price the 30 kWh pack just slightly beyond the point where it would make sense for a lot of people to make economic sense of it, but the announcement would be seen as positive, and it might coerce people to either jump on a fresh new 24 kWh LEAF (I would not be surprised to see a slight price drop for the base model) or jump on a new 30 kWh LEAF and enjoy 100 miles of range with ease in comparison to the 24 kWh LEAF.

 

[dgpcolorado]

... or jump on a new 30 kWh LEAF and enjoy 100 miles of range with ease in comparison to the 24 kWh LEAF.

Well, "100 miles of range with ease" in San Diego, perhaps. Not so much in a lot of other places!

However, I agree with your point that pricing replacement battery packs allows us to calculate the cost and benefit of a pack replacement, in comparison with trading in the car and buying a new one, and paying the considerable costs of a new car purchase/lease.

I wonder if the general idea that putting in a new pack in an older LEAF, with a rather low used car market value, makes more sense than what some are supposing. It's not exactly the same as a new engine in an ICEV. An older ICEV with a new engine might also need a new transmission, or exhaust system (I've lost count of the number of mufflers I've replaced over the years, for example). Putting a battery pack in an older LEAF, which otherwise might well be in good condition, can return the car to like-new performance and lead to many more years of service. The motor should be able to handle many hundreds of thousands of miles and isn't likely to need replacing. I'll guess that the reduction gear system isn't likely to need replacing, just a change in gear oil. The main problems figure to be on-board electronic systems and such things as switches, I would guess.

While I understand that putting a $6000 battery in a $5000 six year old LEAF doesn't make it worth $11,000 on the used market, it could allow the car to provide many more years of service for the owner. I guess the main argument against early LEAFs having a long life is just that they become technologically obsolete compared to newer, much longer range, EVs. But surely there are a lot of people with short range needs who could use an 80 mile car with low fueling and maintenance costs. (The more I drive my LEAF the more frustrating I find the maintenance issues for my ICEV.)

Just "thinking out loud", so to speak.

 

[minispeed]

... or jump on a new 30 kWh LEAF and enjoy 100 miles of range with ease in comparison to the 24 kWh LEAF.

Well, "100 miles of range with ease" in San Diego, perhaps. Not so much in a lot of other places!

However, I agree with your point that pricing replacement battery packs allows us to calculate the cost and benefit of a pack replacement, in comparison with trading in the car and buying a new one, and paying the considerable costs of a new car purchase/lease.

I wonder if the general idea that putting in a new pack in an older LEAF, with a rather low used car market value, makes more sense than what some are supposing. It's not exactly the same as a new engine in an ICEV. An older ICEV with a new engine might also need a new transmission, or exhaust system (I've lost count of the number of mufflers I've replaced over the years, for example). Putting a battery pack in an older LEAF, which otherwise might well be in good condition, can return the car to like-new performance and lead to many more years of service. The motor should be able to handle many hundreds of thousands of miles and isn't likely to need replacing. I'll guess that the reduction gear system isn't likely to need replacing, just a change in gear oil. The main problems figure to be on-board electronic systems and such things as switches, I would guess.

While I understand that putting a $6000 battery in a $5000 six year old LEAF doesn't make it worth $11,000 on the used market, it could allow the car to provide many more years of service for the owner. I guess the main argument against early LEAFs having a long life is just that they become technologically obsolete compared to newer, much longer range, EVs. But surely there are a lot of people with short range needs who could use an 80 mile car with low fueling and maintenance costs. (The more I drive my LEAF the more frustrating I find the maintenance issues for my ICEV.)

Just "thinking out loud", so to speak.

Compare the gear reduction to a final drive, very similar in operation and how many problems have you ever had with a final drive/diff assembly? Aside from high power applications that are driven hard I've never heard of one.

I think that the length of time that the leaf will last/retain value will be the same as any other well built car. It will be the interior. Volvo's are famous for lasting very very long and doing over 300,000 miles but most of the used one's you see for sale have ripped leather, stained carpet, a worn out steering wheel and broken/scratched/missing wear down the inside to the point where no one feels comfortable inside it and no one enjoys it anymore.

The same can be said about a lot of reliable cars, you can replace the leather for a few grand and it would feel new and still have that Volvo reliability but the choice to just scrap it or sell it dirt cheap and buy another one that's in 8.5/10 condition will be hard to resist. Once a used leaf value is less than a new battery it will be similar, if 10/12 bars was fine for someone when they bought their first used leaf but 7/10 isn't then why pay $6500 for 12 bars when you can trade in to a 10/12 bar car in better shape for less.

 

[tkdbrusco]

If they offer the 30kwh pack to MY11-15 owners at any price under $7500 it is still a great deal. There is a huge market for 110mi range EVs as commuter cars and daily drivers. The new 200+ mi EVs that will hit the market in the next couple years will be competitive and affordable only as long as the government incentives remain in place (2019 max, depending on manufacturer) IMO Nissan, Chevy, and Tesla will begin losing these in 2018 or so. All of the sudden when that happens, those prices on the 200+ range cars begins to creep up. Right now a new Leaf winds up costing $16-24K depending on model and state after you factor in the incentives, but when those are gone and the 200+ mile cars wind up costing a real $35-40K, a used leaf Gen1 that costs $11000 and gives you the option of a 110 mi replacement battery for $7500 (perhaps even less by then) becomes a really good deal! I think that there's no way Nissan doesn't make these 30kwh packs backward compatible. They need to do something to stop the flood of lease returns. A sold car is a sold car for them whether they sell the lease return to a new customer, the leasee, whoever, the reality is that they sell them the Nissan brand. And even if that person drives the car for a few years and wants a second gen EV, they will likely buy another Nissan. Offering the replacement pack also sends the message that they support their customers. Even if it does cost $7500, at a gas savings of $2K/year, that's gonna pay for itself in about 4 years and even with modest degradation, the 110mi pack will still have 90mi of range after 4 years and another good 3 years of heavy driving in it. Its still a great deal! The EV market is going to be so big when the Bolt, Gen2 Leaf, Tesla3 hit showrooms that Nissan doesn't need to worry about selling cars. They will be selling every car they make to new EV buyers, people will be lining up to take advantage of the government incentives.

The reality is that the depreciation we are complaining about on our Gen1s is nothing compared to an ICE car. In 2011, I bought a slightly used Hyundai Sonata for $18500 (19700 with tax and fees). That car today has 83K miles on it and a KBB value of $9500. Combined with my gas costs and maintenance, that car has a cost of ownership today of about $21,000!!!! Compare that to my 2015 Leaf, that wound up costing $18,000 including tax and fees (thanks to government incentives). If I drive that car for 3 years, and sell it for a low price of $11K, my cost of ownership will be $7500. That's a hell of a lot lower than any ICE car.

The sad truth here is that the whole EV market is manipulated by government incentives. The costs are skewed and it's tough to make real judgements here. once those incentives go away, there's going to be a big upswing in used car prices for EVs

 

[abasile]

It does make sense that used LEAF prices might go up when the Federal income tax credit phases out. On the other hand, if Nissan lowers its prices on new LEAFs accordingly, as they've previously suggested they would do, then there might not be much of an effect on used car prices.

I agree that if one considers the total cost of ownership over the last four years of a 2011 LEAF that was purchased new, the picture is rosier than if one focuses only on depreciation. However, in my case, with 55K miles on our LEAF, if we had driven those miles in our family's 2010 Prius instead, then we would have spent about $4K on fuel and an extra $500 or so on oil changes and other maintenance. Our electricity is a little pricy, so I'd estimate we've saved roughly $2500 compared to "just driving the Prius". That by itself is not compelling, though competing with a Prius on cost is probably as tough as it gets, as Prii tend to be quite reliable. Further, we've had to work around the LEAF's range limitations, the primary factor that will generally cause consumers to discount whatever cost advantages the LEAF might have.

Regardless, I'm very glad that we've added fewer GHGs to the atmosphere, supported the transition to EVs, and enjoyed the superior driving dynamics of an EV. I'm just not inclined to be optimistic as to future valuations of used, sub-100-mile EVs.

Another line of thinking is, if perhaps putting a higher-capacity replacement pack in an older LEAF is perceived by enough people as offering a major improvement in utility (as it would in our case if we don't buy a Tesla), then maybe it'll improve the resale value by more than some of us have speculated. Unfortunately, 30 kWh might not be enough additional capacity to substantially lift the market value, and retrofitting still more capacity won't be cheap.

Finally, I agree with dgpcolorado that an older LEAF with a new battery pack should last quite a while (assuming no major heat-related degradation), and that it would be cheaper to upgrade the pack in an older LEAF than it would be to sell the older LEAF and buy a new one. The question is, would the amount saved be enough to make up for driving an older car? I like minispeed's thinking here - sell the older LEAF and replace it with another used LEAF that's a few years newer. If I end up doing that, I'll get a faster onboard charger (for L2), a more efficient vehicle, a little more cargo space, and other, newer features.

 

[TimLee]

... The motor should be able to handle many hundreds of thousands of miles and isn't likely to need replacing. ...

Maybe.
Not enough experience yet to know this is a certainty.
Have been a few warranty motor replacements.
TickTock got one. A video showing the bad sound it was making was included.

 

[ydnas7]

there is always the possibility the 30kWh pack will be 2013/14 compatible but not 2011/12 compatible.
ie, if there is a pack level voltage change.