Not to get into the "what's going on with the Tesla estimate" at InsideEVs too much, but we spend an inordinate amount of time trying to come up with a real-world/realistic estimation of monthly sales for Tesla.
We in no way look at the company worldwide quarterly estimates at all to arrive at a US delivery number, or for any theories on what the US split should be. We just do the research to the best of our abilities and "it is, what it is". August = crappy, September = exceptionally high.
That being said of the historical results, we have never been off more then 300 units net on any quarter where result were quantifiable 100%, and our average quarterly miss is a little under 150 units...so its not too shabby. But I'm not saying in anyway we are perfect; it is more than possible for us to get a month or quarter wrong now or in the future.
As InsideEVs is a media outfit only concerned really about plug-in news specifically, we don't allow for any 'financial/stock ownership position" considerations. I personally don't own any Tesla shares...as long as I work at IEV I will not own any shares; none of the persons on the staff own shares (or are holding options).
Truth be told, the day Tesla starts reporting monthly numbers will be the best month ever. Its very tricky/time consuming doing the work...and because our track record has very accurate so far, we get pounded near daily to explain the methodology/research behind the numbers, and to make future predictions by those employed in the investment community.