Biggest problem I have with the Leaf......

[WaunaLeaf]

First, I have a Leaf reserved and intend on acquiring one when it is available in my area. I can live with the range and all the diosyncrasies and details released to date. I also accept it is new technology and there will be some unknowns. Financially, I'm fortunate enough that I can consider being an early adopter even though I am squarely "middle-class". To their credit Nissan has done a great job promoting the car and the reviews seem very positive. The one area I think they could do a much better job in though is assuring their early adopters they will be reasonably looked after.

Since this is really new technology there is a high likelihood of advancements in the most significant part of the car - battery and charging. Nissan has floated warranty ideas around and, of course, the longer the better. But what about providing cost effective upgrades to the charging and battery systems? How will the 2011 model buyers feel when their 3.3Kw charger is replaced by a 6.6Kw in he 2012 models? How will the first 20K owners feel when the the mass market rollout gets a 48Kw battery pack or an upgraded warranty? If my battery becomes unexpectedly degraded after 5 years, what are my options? Do I have to kick another $10K into a five year old car? If the battery lasts just the warranty period (8 years?), is the car worth $0 because you or the next owner have to plunk down $10K into an 8 yo car? Can you even replace the battery?

Now I know the initial response is going to be "that's the cost of being an early adopter" but there's a big difference between being an early adopter of a video camera and a car. I do think Nissan cold relatively easily address these concerns by designing in upgradability and putting some associated policies together. Actualy, just two statements by them would alleviate a lot of my hesitation:

1)The charger system and battery are designed to be field upgradable to take advantage of future technological improvements.
2)The owner will receive a pro-rated credit for the replaced part, x% discount on the replacement and no charge installation.

Simple. Done deal.

 

[mwalsh]

I asked Mark Perry about battery upgrades for early adopters, and he was quite blunt about Nissan wanting us to buy new cars in 5-10 years time. But I think there will be upgraded battery opportunities (and associated software hacks) on the secondary market by then. So we won't need to go "cap in hand" to Nissan.

What I think they need to do is be a bit more sensitive to some of the concerns we still have about this iteration of the vehicle. I know they're under a lot of pressure to get this car out successfully, but sometimes Mark comes off as a bit flippant (and not entirely reassuring) when he's talking with us.

 

[walterbays]

what about providing cost effective upgrades to the charging and battery systems?

I share your unease about improvements that could make my car an early museum relic. But one answer to us could be:

• If you're worried about your new computer becoming obsolete, buy an abacus instead. http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1993-03-08/
  
  If you're worried about your EV becoming obsolete, buy an ICE instead

 

[WaunaLeaf]

I knew an intial response would be the inevitable "if you're worried about improvements, don't buy it". What I'm obviously pointing out is that a computer or blu-ray player is one thing, a car is completely different. A ten year old ICE still has a decent residual value because the basic technology hasen't changed much. Even if your EV is completely functional after 3 years but all the new Leafs (or competitors) have greatly improved range and charge times, your car is worth very little. If in 5-8 years the battery has degraded, then it's worth even less. If it requires a new battery it is essentially worthless. An ICE might depreciate $1500-$2000 per year in this time frame where the Leaf could easily be $3500+ per year. That's a lot of gas PLUS you could have a fairly top tier sedan/SUV/Minivan for $30K.

Again, I'm all in for the Leaf. Nissan has done a great job of the technology and Marketing but I do think they should spend some time on this obsolesence issue in order to speed mass market adoption. I'm just looking for a little cover from Nissan.

 

[smkettner]

Every year cars get better, options added, better performance, etc. How do you feel about those improvements currently? I think many just trade their car sooner than needed to get the new model. Leaf is no different.

A better battery for less money does not exist. If it comes available it will be your option and full cost to upgrade. Most certainly the existing battery pack can be replaced. In fact it is needed to be removed to repaint the car due to heat used in the process.

The faster the battery is charged the more wear and tear with accelerated degridation. JMHO If your battery is at 70% capacity in eight years the faster charger may well have it down to 50% in those same years. Upgrade at your own risk. Any credit will be from selling your replaced charger on ebay. Sorta like upgrading your wheels after the purchase. Until battery technology improves I plan no charging or other upgrades.

There is no doubt in my mind the Leaf three or five years from now will be vastly improved. SAME as other cars. Nissan will be happy to trade you up just as ALL car dealers do right now with existing cars. Why hold Leaf to a different standard than others?

 

[DarkStar]

Even if your EV is completely functional after 3 years but all the new Leafs (or competitors) have greatly improved range and charge times, your car is worth very little. If in 5-8 years the battery has degraded, then it's worth even less. If it requires a new battery it is essentially worthless.

Hmm... My 2003 Subaru Impreza RS lasted 6 years, but needed about $3,000 in repairs for a head gasket issue in year 5 that ended up leaking again in year 6. Sure I could have spent another $3,000 to fix it again, but instead I got rid of the car for scrap. If the only thing my Leaf needs is a new battery after 6 years, I'll not only be ahead of the game in fueling costs, but also in repair costs. By then, I should be able to get a 200 mile battery pack for about $6,000 probably including a 6.6 KW charger too.

Luckily I'll be a heavy user (about 15-20,000 miles per year), so the fuel savings are pretty significant, but I also expect the vehicle (not the battery pack) to last at least 10 years.

We do have some history that we can look at with the Toyota RAV 4 EV and the Chevy S-10 EV... How are they doing with their resale values?

 

[Long4Leaf]

For me, I am not worried about being able to upgrade the LEAF. New cars are always coming out with new features and I don't expect to be able to upgrade my old car with these new features. I am concerned about the life expectancy of the LEAF. I know I am buying a 100 mile range car and can live with that for many years. If it's available in the future, I might choose to buy a new, higher capacity battery, or maybe not. What would be a problem is if in 5 years, I no longer have a car with the the capabilities I am buying today.

 

[TLeaf]

Unless Nissan hasn't done their homework at all, then I think the battery condition in a 10 year time frame is still going to be pretty respectable. Just as the Prius batteries have come to exceed initial expectations, I think we'll find the same with the Leaf batteries even though this is a different application (a pure EV versus a hybrid). Will this be a 60-80 mile range instead of 100? I can't say for sure what the range will be, but it will certainly be much more than 0 unless you really were unlucky enough to get a lemon and, even if it was, the car would certainly still have a respectable residual owing to all of the other expensive and (hopefully) still operational bits that it would contain (think 80kW motor, motor controller board, BMS, tires, scrap metal value, etc.). Let's see, at current scrap market value, we're looking at atleast $500. No one ever said a mass-market car was a good investment!

We also have to keep in mind that Nissan designed the pack with the intention that their dealership techs would be able to take the packs apart and replace individual 4-cell modules as needed. Will there be an appreciable cost with this process? Certainly, but I could imagine a case where it would only take the replacement of 25% of the cells at the cost of $1-2K to return the overall pack back to 90% of original capacity (atleast that seems to be the case with my somewhat under-engineered Vectrix scooter).

I think right now a lot of people are nervous because they see EVs as a "black box" technology; you put electricity in there and through some mysterious process you can press an accelerator pedal and get the wheels to turn. As EVs become more common place, I think this mentality will disappear or atleast mitigated as mechanics and the layman both gain familiarity with the components of EVs and truly understand how they function. Atleast that's been my own experience, but then again, I know plenty of people who watch those "thinking with your dipstick" commercials and have to ask "what's a dipstick?"

 

[palmermd]

We do have some history that we can look at with the Toyota RAV 4 EV and the Chevy S-10 EV... How are they doing with their resale values?

They are just about to tank. They've been getting $40k + for the RAV4ev for years, but they will certainly be under $30k as soon as you can purchase a new LEAF off the lot for $32k.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i addressed this issue in another post and i agree that a successful initial launch must be followed up by additional support and information. an extended battery warranty program would be nice. long term battery goals discussed, further government legislation to make EV more attractive, gas less attractive.

if all this happens, then you will have a bundle of 3rd party options in 3-5 years time. the key thing really is making gas inconvenient. if that means jacking up the price of gas to pay for an extensive charging network or subsidizing the cost of larger battery packs, so be it. i am ok with that. sure it will cost me more money. raising the price of gas will affect the cost of EVERYTHING, so driving an EV will not make me immune but i accept that extra cost if it moves us to a cleaner, independent energy future

 

[evnow]

Every year cars get better, options added, better performance, etc. How do you feel about those improvements currently? I think many just trade their car sooner than needed to get the new model. Leaf is no different.

Very true. My 10 year old Maxima feels ancient now. I didn't even have a CD player.

Ofcourse some of the things like CD or even navigation can be added aftermarket - but some others are not possible.

Leasing is the best option now to get intot he game early and update when more choices are available.

 

[johnr]

My 6-year old ICE car still runs like new and the only service it needs is the occasional oil and tire change. But its KBB value has tanked. Its resale value is 1/4 what I paid for it new. I guess that's to be expected with any car, electric or not. There have been forecasts of a high resale value for the LEAF, but it's really completely unknown as no one has tried selling an electric car in such large numbers until now. But I don't expect much resale value. If you don't want to take that chance, maybe the lease is the best option.

 

[Jimmydreams]

Lease. Consider the monthly payments as your pay-to-play for early adopters and gas-price insurance.

3 years from now, reassess the EV landscape and buy the best option then.

That's my plan.

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

Lease. Consider the monthly payments as your pay-to-play for early adopters and gas-price insurance.

3 years from now, reassess the EV landscape and buy the best option then.

That's my plan.

Affirmative. I just wish the Nissan lease plan had less of a premium. No pre-pay option, no MSD.. works out to be a $2,600 insurance plan.

So that's the question.. do I think I could sell the car for $2,600 less than residual after three years?

 

[charlie1300]

try to ignore the "new technology" fear and do the same economic analysis that you would do for any car purchase:

how long will it last for what you plan to use it for? The closer your daily mileage is to the max mileage, the less utility you get it later years as the battery pack degrades. If your daily mileage is less than 70% of the new battery pack max mileage, then, then you should get a good 6-8 years out of the car. Is that a good value compared to other alternatives available today?

What is your expectation about the price of gas over the next 6-8 years?

Do you think that you will desperately want the next gen EV when it comes out in 3-4 years?

So these would be factors that could lead you to chose lease over purchase. I never leased a car before, but I will certainly consider seriously with the leaf. Thought right now purchase still seems a better value.

A frequent poster on this site put up a spreadsheet on the cost comparisons of ICE, Hybrid, plug-in hybrid and leaf (sorry can't remember the thread) that I thought was very interesting. It might help.

 

[stanley]

Goundloop, It looks like you did your homework on the lease cost. Please share how you got to $2,600.

 

[WaunaLeaf]

Let me ask a simpler question than. For those who have a 2011 Leaf on order, with it's 3.3Kw charger, and given that the 2012 model given a 6.6Kw charger, is it your expectation that you will be able to upgrade the charger? If not, would you consider delaying a purchase until the 2012 model is released, or is charging twice as fast not part of your purchase decision?

 

[WaunaLeaf]

Lease. Consider the monthly payments as your pay-to-play for early adopters and gas-price insurance.

3 years from now, reassess the EV landscape and buy the best option then.

That's my plan.

Affirmative. I just wish the Nissan lease plan had less of a premium. No pre-pay option, no MSD.. works out to be a $2,600 insurance plan.

So that's the question.. do I think I could sell the car for $2,600 less than residual after three years?

So what's the annual mileage limit on the lease? If it's like $.40/mile over 12,000 miles, isn't the benefit over gas imited to just the 1st 12K? After that the per mile cost upcharge offets the gas savings significantly, right?

 

[DaveEV]

Let me ask a simpler question than. For those who have a 2011 Leaf on order, with it's 3.3Kw charger, and given that the 2012 model given a 6.6Kw charger, is it your expectation that you will be able to upgrade the charger? If not, would you consider delaying a purchase until the 2012 model is released, or is charging twice as fast not part of your purchase decision?

L2 charge rates don't matter that much to me. If I need to charge quickly, I expect that there will be sufficient L3 chargers to do that.

L2 charging will be for charging at home or work and charging at 12 miles/hour probably won't make much of a difference vs charging at 24 miles/hour the vast majority of the time. If it does - then a L3 charge would likely be what I really want.

 

[Nubo]

I knew an intial response would be the inevitable "if you're worried about improvements, don't buy it". What I'm obviously pointing out is that a computer or blu-ray player is one thing, a car is completely different. A ten year old ICE still has a decent residual value because the basic technology hasen't changed much. Even if your EV is completely functional after 3 years but all the new Leafs (or competitors) have greatly improved range and charge times, your car is worth very little. If in 5-8 years the battery has degraded, then it's worth even less. If it requires a new battery it is essentially worthless. An ICE might depreciate $1500-$2000 per year in this time frame where the Leaf could easily be $3500+ per year. That's a lot of gas PLUS you could have a fairly top tier sedan/SUV/Minivan for $30K.

Again, I'm all in for the Leaf. Nissan has done a great job of the technology and Marketing but I do think they should spend some time on this obsolesence issue in order to speed mass market adoption. I'm just looking for a little cover from Nissan.

I wouldn't put it as flippantly as "don't like it, don't buy it", but perhaps: "buy it if it does what you want". If the existing charger is sufficient for your needs, and you're ok with the range, then version2 improvements may be nice but shouldn't cause you too much grief. You'll still be drivng a car that satisfies your needs.

I don't expect the rate of charge to be much of an issue for most owners.

As far as resale, not sure the resale value of a 10-year old car is a huge consideration. On the other hand, if a battery pack with twice the range is available at that time, then the potential of the car is doubled. Try that with an ICE!