BUY NOW or LATER

[LTLFTcomposite]

So all it takes is a congressman from Pennsylvania to introduce a bill then it becomes law? I thought the process was a bit lengthier.

 

[Levenkay]

Republican Congressman Mike Kelly represents Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district. Kelly's bill, H.R. 3768, cites a "lack of mainstream market demand" as the main reason for canceling the credit.

That's so screamingly backwards; why ever does Mr. Kelly imagine incentives are offered, if not to encourage people who wouldn't otherwise take some action? It's stuff the public is clamoring for, like billboard-sized flatscreen TVs, McWhoppers, and Suburmmers that you wouldn't want to incentivize.

Besides, if Mr.Kelly is right and nobody's taking the government's offer, what's it costing?

 

[mitch672]

Republican Congressman Mike Kelly represents Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district. Kelly's bill, H.R. 3768, cites a "lack of mainstream market demand" as the main reason for canceling the credit.

That's so screamingly backwards; why ever does Mr. Kelly imagine incentives are offered, if not to encourage people who wouldn't otherwise take some action? It's stuff the public is clamoring for, like billboard-sized flatscreen TVs, McWhoppers, and Suburmmers that you wouldn't want to incentivize.

Besides, if Mr.Kelly is right and nobody's taking the government's offer, what's it costing?

I think the point he is trying to make is, the people who can afford these "electric car toys" do not need the governments help, and that they can well afford them. Perhaps he is forgetting about how much oil is subsidized, and about how much money we send to countries that are activley trying to destroy our way of life. If the incentive gets a few peope off gasoline quicker, thats what the goal is.

 

[clifsmith]

The LEAF I test drove over 2 weeks ago is STILL available and they discounted it even more. They have all 4 leafs still sitting. This appears to be an indicator that demand here in Texas is not good. Good for buyers now, but if this demand is an indication of what is to come....after the early adopters play out, then we may have a problem on our hands, maybe another EV1 scenario?

These cars are simply not priced for the masses right now. It does not make sense to go drop $35k on a car when you can get many compacts that get 40mpg for 1/2 the price. Just bad economics at current fuel price levels. The price of gas needs to go up considerably to push people into these. If this price of gas does not go up to bring people to EVs, then ultimately EVs will fail. But I would bank on the price of gas going up. I am sure the Mfrs expect this as well or they would not be dropping billions into this. I really pray that the cost/benefit comes together soon so that we can get off these Dino burners and that the MFRs can hold out for demand to pick up. I really think Nissan made a huge mistake raising the MSRP by almost $3k on the 2012 model, just to add $1500 in options (quick charge + cold weather pkg). In Texas we don't need the cold weather pkg. Really these EVs need to be priced around $30k BEFORE the credit to get people to convert. The VOLT....waaaaay overpriced. They will fail.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

The LEAF I test drove over 2 weeks ago is STILL available and they discounted it even more. They have all 4 leafs still sitting. This appears to be an indicator that demand here in Texas is not good. Good for buyers now, but if this demand is an indication of what is to come....after the early adopters play out, then we may have a problem on our hands, maybe another EV1 scenario?

These cars are simply not priced for the masses right now. It does not make sense to go drop $35k on a car when you can get many compacts that get 40mpg for 1/2 the price. Just bad economics at current fuel price levels. The price of gas needs to go up considerably to push people into these. If this price of gas does not go up to bring people to EVs, then ultimately EVs will fail. But I would bank on the price of gas going up. I am sure the Mfrs expect this as well or they would not be dropping billions into this. I really pray that the cost/benefit comes together soon so that we can get off these Dino burners and that the MFRs can hold out for demand to pick up. I really think Nissan made a huge mistake raising the MSRP by almost $3k on the 2012 model, just to add $1500 in options (quick charge + cold weather pkg). In Texas we don't need the cold weather pkg. Really these EVs need to be priced around $30k BEFORE the credit to get people to convert. The VOLT....waaaaay overpriced. They will fail.

You speak the truth clifsmith. Only the adventurous are biting now, although when gas prices start with a "4" interest may pick up. We're almost there now. I would argue that post-credit, the Leaf is about 7 grand more than a comparable gas car. It's possible to save $150-200 a month on fuel with the Leaf, so it is possible to get it to pencil out against a comparable gas new-car purchase, but it has to fit your usage pattern, and a lot of folks still need to be convinced.

 

[abasile]

These cars are simply not priced for the masses right now. It does not make sense to go drop $35k on a car when you can get many compacts that get 40mpg for 1/2 the price.

True, but people still buy all kinds of $30,000+ cars that do not make sense. Fiscally, new car purchases almost never make sense. On a smaller scale, expensive gadgets like the iPhone don't make fiscal sense for a large number of people; I'm always surprised at the number of people I see who are on the brink of poverty and carrying around the fanciest phones. I think people need to see that it is very cool to drive an EV. Electric drivetrains do have some very nice attributes.

But I would bank on the price of gas going up.

This is likely, but by no means a given. Because of the higher cost of extracting from oil sands, shale oil, etc., coupled with greater demand in Asia, I don't see prices going down significantly. But there might also be enough supply of the aforementioned dirty sources of oil to keep prices from going up a great deal.

Even if oil prices drop and the US and Canada end up producing enough oil to eliminate Middle East imports, reducing dependence on oil is still a very good thing. Year by year, gasoline and diesel are only getting dirtier while electricity is getting cleaner. We have to consider the needs of future generations.

 

[lpickup]

and a lot of folks still need to be convinced.

This is the key statement. I think most people (myself included before I just happened to look into it) have no idea how much money you can save by driving electric.

Still, I think the other problem is simply that the majority of Americans will simply buy the cheapest thing they can that gives them the features they want. Period. They aren't going to look a few years out and see that they can actually come out ahead, and they aren't going to spend extra money because of other benefits (environmental, foreign oil dependence, national security). It's like the cartoon that was posted on here awhile back (that I did take issue with, but it does speak a truth) that even for a modest increase in price and possibly enormous side benefits (and future returns), the average consumer is not going to pay an additional 10%.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

Actually I think the economics are quite good, at least from what I'm finding but it does involve a substantial investment. With all the ranting and raving against EV's, bail outs and subsidies there is no mention of the potential savings over time. I do think the political environment is doing a lot of damage to EV sales. As for the savings, we are about to roll over 12,000 miles for just over $300 in electricity. This car is saving us close to $2K a year in gas. in terms of long term economics, there isn't a better deal with any other type of car. No other type of car stands to pay for it's self in it's life time in fuel savings. I do not think price is holding back sales, I think in the short run it's lack of a QC network to point to to show people where this is headed and in the long run it's going to come down to larger battery packs... people make their purchase decisions on extreme scenarios and what if's. People want either quick recharging or a large enough pack to never have to run it below 1/4 to 1/8th of a "tank" and still get where they want to go consistently or both, IMHO.

The LEAF I test drove over 2 weeks ago is STILL available and they discounted it even more. They have all 4 leafs still sitting. This appears to be an indicator that demand here in Texas is not good. Good for buyers now, but if this demand is an indication of what is to come....after the early adopters play out, then we may have a problem on our hands, maybe another EV1 scenario?

These cars are simply not priced for the masses right now. It does not make sense to go drop $35k on a car when you can get many compacts that get 40mpg for 1/2 the price. Just bad economics at current fuel price levels. The price of gas needs to go up considerably to push people into these. If this price of gas does not go up to bring people to EVs, then ultimately EVs will fail. But I would bank on the price of gas going up. I am sure the Mfrs expect this as well or they would not be dropping billions into this. I really pray that the cost/benefit comes together soon so that we can get off these Dino burners and that the MFRs can hold out for demand to pick up. I really think Nissan made a huge mistake raising the MSRP by almost $3k on the 2012 model, just to add $1500 in options (quick charge + cold weather pkg). In Texas we don't need the cold weather pkg. Really these EVs need to be priced around $30k BEFORE the credit to get people to convert. The VOLT....waaaaay overpriced. They will fail.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

people make their purchase decisions on extreme scenarios and what if's.

Oh but what if I want to drive cross country?

In 30 years I've had probably eight different cars, maybe four more or so jointly with my wife, almost lost count. One thing I haven't lost count of though is the number of times I've driven cross country: Three. In 30 years. All of were times I needed to move a car and could have probably shipped it just as easily.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

people make their purchase decisions on extreme scenarios and what if's.

Oh but what if I want to drive cross country?

In 30 years I've had probably eight different cars, maybe four more or so jointly with my wife, almost lost count. One thing I haven't lost count of though is the number of times I've driven cross country: Three. In 30 years. All of were times I needed to move a car and could have probably shipped it just as easily.

Unfortunately, people are less interested in facts than they are in their own impressions. No matter how much I tell people that "the average person" only drives around 30 miles a day, they just get stuck on the "limited" range. The reason gas tanks are so big is to make people feel more secure, and in this case, irrational fears trump reality when it comes to buying cars. For a lot of people, one's car reflects a deep sense of personal identity. People get very wrapped up in it, it's like the car is a symbol, an extension, of one's own virility... people want a car that makes them feel limitless. DC fast chargers will help span the gap until we have much larger batteries.

 

[IBELEAF]

These cars are simply not priced for the masses right now. It does not make sense to go drop $35k on a car when you can get many compacts that get 40mpg for 1/2 the price. Just bad economics at current fuel price levels. The price of gas needs to go up considerably to push people into these. If this price of gas does not go up to bring people to EVs, then ultimately EVs will fail. But I would bank on the price of gas going up. I am sure the Mfrs expect this as well or they would not be dropping billions into this. I really pray that the cost/benefit comes together soon so that we can get off these Dino burners and that the MFRs can hold out for demand to pick up. I really think Nissan made a huge mistake raising the MSRP by almost $3k on the 2012 model, just to add $1500 in options (quick charge + cold weather pkg). In Texas we don't need the cold weather pkg. Really these EVs need to be priced around $30k BEFORE the credit to get people to convert. The VOLT....waaaaay overpriced. They will fail.

if someone is selling you Leaf for $35k after credit then it might be overpaying for it, but I personally paid after credits $26100 OTD (no tax) and I am not sure which 40 mpg car you can get for 1/2 price of that, but if looking at fully loaded 2012 Elantra w/ Navi, it would be roughly $25k w/ tax.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

For a lot of people, one's car reflects a deep sense of personal identity. People get very wrapped up in it, it's like the car is a symbol, an extension, of one's own virility... people want a car that makes them feel limitless.

Not like Madison Avenue hasn't given folks plenty of cues there. Look at all the car ads, you always see the driver fiddling with the gearshift, itself a phallic symbol.

This is my all time favorite:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVN9rHhwK3A

Notice at the 25 second mark she actuates the "go fast" lever, sort of like going into hyperspace. Lady you're already going forward! It's an automatic, leave it alone!

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Its the same thread over and over. If it does not work for you then don't do it. It is not supposed to work for everyone. Now I can sit here and tell how wonderful or is footer me but that isn't gonna mean squat to someone else.

Sure I like saving $80 a month in gas. Sure I like the coolness the attention and the electric driving experience but that means nothing to someone who might have to walk because he can't fund a plug

But dint worry. Better options are being announced every day. More public charging options are coming online every day and eventually we will see some real governmental support and not the current lip service we receive now

The last big car trip made happened 3 months before my Leaf was delivered and it was a great family experience that will be talked about for years and it could only have been done on a gas Car a cart we still have. It is not going anywhere and neither are electric cars

 

[StrangerTides]

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...st-less-go-wireless-travel-further-be-smarter

Okay, so as someone who's decided to wait for the 2014 model, a silly question maybe... any info (or speculation) about what the buying process will be like then?

I must be one of the few (considering all the orphans out there) who had a reservation but didn't order. Nissan USA called, reminded me to order, I said no thanks; they offered my $99 back, I said hold on to it, I may be interested in the future. So am I still in a queue of some kind that will translate to 2014, or at that point will it not matter, since anyone will able to just walk into a dealership and place their Leaf order?

 

[clifsmith]

Folks, I am really PRO EV, but the timing needs to be good and make financial sense. So me not buying now is not a statement that I am not interested in going green. I pray that this country is completely off foreign oil within a decade. It is currently the Achilles heel of the US. We are so vulnerable and if we were all driving EVs that would essentially get us off foreign oil. I want a leaf really bad now and still have not completely ruled out a demo or orphan 2011. But May 2014 is when I will lose (if I wait to buy leaf) my current 2011 Scion XB to my daughter and the timing should be excellent to get a decent deal on a improved 2014 model. I am really hoping the price will fall to around $30k (before credit) with 120 mile range and the tax credit will still be available.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Folks, I am really PRO EV, but the timing needs to be good and make financial sense. So me not buying now is not a statement that I am not interested in going green. I pray that this country is completely off foreign oil within a decade. It is currently the Achilles heel of the US. We are so vulnerable and if we were all driving EVs that would essentially get us off foreign oil. I want a leaf really bad now and still have not completely ruled out a demo or orphan 2011. But May 2014 is when I will lose (if I wait to buy leaf) my current 2011 Scion XB to my daughter and the timing should be excellent to get a decent deal on a improved 2014 model. I am really hoping the price will fall to around $30k (before credit) with 120 mile range and the tax credit will still be available.

its always a waiting game and you might win or you might lose.


Winning;
1) the 2014 Leaf may have the extra 20-30 miles of range we all seem to say would make this car MUCH better.

2) it may have 6.6 KW or higher charging which some people seem to think they need.

3) you could buy a Leaf that has a much more developed support system (public charging options)

4) you will be getting a refined Leaf. one that has addressed the quirks of the first gen model.

but then again you could

1) list this first because it looks like we are on the cusp of another one of those gas price swings. multiple news reports of gas prices nearing $5 a gallon by Memorial Day. now it will probably drop back into the 3's by Winter 2012 but will probably swing a bit higher by 2013 and so on. you could be paying $100+ per month for the additional cost of that gas.

2) The EV tax credit goes full bore for the first X units. 150,000 i think. right now i looks good that we will have not sold that many by then. but if gas prices spike , that might change

3) remember the Prius in Spring/Summer 2008? the first year we hit $4 gas? they were selling for waaaay over sticker. used Priuses were commanding a ridiculous price. if gas prices go high enough, it might take 2-3 years for Nissan to catch up with demand. the competition? most dont seem poised for any kind of volume production any time soon. Remember Nissan is set for 150,000 per year starting with a factory ramp up this fall, but the big thing is that they have covered their needs end to end. they also have a battery plant too.

4) the rest is something that you really cant understand mostly because every Leaf owner could tell you if they could but its just the feeling of driving electric. driving past the gas stations, never having to worry about filling up anywhere but your own garage.

its hard to explain but i really feel it 3-4 times a month when the SO trades cars and i have to gas up the Prius. its (currently at reduced prices that are already no longer available) $35 a pop and that is already a pipe dream (gas has jumped 7 c since i filled up last 2 days ago)

i really see this gas bubble we have enjoyed coming to an end. i see $4 -$4.50 gas being the norm cycling into $5 and beyond every summer. it should not be a shock. the rest of the world pays much more and has been doing so for years.

 

[Herm]

Excellent post Dave.

 

[planetf1]

Interesting discussion.

I must admit I'm facing a similar dilemma at the high level-- whether to go for one or not, though admittedly a lot of finer details differ

- over here in the UK I think I worked out our "gas" (petrol) prices are around $8/US gallon
- My current car is a yr 2000 ford focus (very reliable, good to drive) - just now showing signs of a little rust, think clutch may be on it's way, a few other small items need sorting -- nothing *that* expensive but got me thinking
- Like the US the *purchaser* benefits from a ~ 800 usd credit, no road tax (annual fee for having a car) and other road charging benefits
- Like the original poster I've been keeping an eye on EVs and the leaf for a few years, and I finally have an opportunity and excuse
- My journeys are work (4m), gym (8m), city/shopping (8-12m), beaches/coast (mostly up to 30m)

the excuse? I like modern tech, am intrigued, loved the electric drive experience, my car is old
the opportunity? I can take a company lease for 3 years for around 160-200 USD more than my current car is costing to run (factoring in repair costs, insurance etc)

Very tempted.. but even for lease I'm sat here thinking - when will the new 6kW charger hit, when will the new batteries come onstream, is the competition better - but it's silly since the risk profile is so much lower. tbh my "guilt" is probably more at disposing of a properly working reliable car that I own and so is fully depreciated.

More pondering over next few days, though I reckon 80% chance I'll join in the party

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

my "guilt" is probably more at disposing of a properly working reliable car that I own and so is fully depreciated

You can always keep the old car for longer trips, since you may not get much for it anyway.

From the description of your usage, larger battery and faster charging might not benefit you anyway.

 

[abasile]

my "guilt" is probably more at disposing of a properly working reliable car that I own and so is fully depreciated

You can always keep the old car for longer trips, since you may not get much for it anyway.

Or just sell the old car, let someone else benefit from it, and rent on those infrequent occasions when you choose to take trips. There is no guilt in that; your old car will not go to waste, and your overall, long-term impact on the planet will be lessened.