LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
Rightly or wrongly, naysayer arguments are generally framed around comparisons of EVs to traditional ICE vehicles on the basis of cost and convenience in an environment where gasoline is conveniently available at what is arguably still a pretty cheap price:
"When I can get one for $15k that goes 500 miles and recharges in three minutes I'll think about it."
Few remember 1974, as they are either too young or have forgotten, but those were some interesting times, even though they resolved themselves in a relatively short period of time. I have to think that a similar event today would completely change the discussion about EVs. Nobody would give a rat's ass what the LEAF's headlights looks like, the only thing that would matter is knowing who you could talk to to get one without having to pay more than $10k over sticker. All the people who think 50 miles/day is nothing would see it differently if they had to walk it - or sit in a line for four hours to get three a three gallon ration.
Maybe it's my imagination, but the current situations in Syria and Egypt seem worse than usual. Not that I'm hoping for trouble in the interest of EV advocacy, but are we facing a near term potential for a disruption in oil supply? Something more than just a $20/bbl price spike that adds 40 cents a gallon. Or is the supply diversified to the point where a localized disruption from an area of supply wouldn't have that big an impact? Still... even if your oil doesn't come from, say, a big Saudi oil terminal, somebody's does, and if that gets disrupted, some part of whatever was going to you is now going to be in demand by whoever that was going to.
I suppose the status quo could continue reliably for a long time to come... on the other hand it seems like a remote possibility we go on without at least some significant oil supply disruption event.
"When I can get one for $15k that goes 500 miles and recharges in three minutes I'll think about it."
Few remember 1974, as they are either too young or have forgotten, but those were some interesting times, even though they resolved themselves in a relatively short period of time. I have to think that a similar event today would completely change the discussion about EVs. Nobody would give a rat's ass what the LEAF's headlights looks like, the only thing that would matter is knowing who you could talk to to get one without having to pay more than $10k over sticker. All the people who think 50 miles/day is nothing would see it differently if they had to walk it - or sit in a line for four hours to get three a three gallon ration.
Maybe it's my imagination, but the current situations in Syria and Egypt seem worse than usual. Not that I'm hoping for trouble in the interest of EV advocacy, but are we facing a near term potential for a disruption in oil supply? Something more than just a $20/bbl price spike that adds 40 cents a gallon. Or is the supply diversified to the point where a localized disruption from an area of supply wouldn't have that big an impact? Still... even if your oil doesn't come from, say, a big Saudi oil terminal, somebody's does, and if that gets disrupted, some part of whatever was going to you is now going to be in demand by whoever that was going to.
I suppose the status quo could continue reliably for a long time to come... on the other hand it seems like a remote possibility we go on without at least some significant oil supply disruption event.