Geopolitical potential for a game-changing gas shortage?

[LTLFTcomposite]

Boy I don't know, this just keeps getting messier. Hard to see this not ending badly.

 

[cwerdna]

Relating to my comments about China and India, I came across this recently.

ABG: Global petroleum use hits record high, thanks to boom in Asia
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/08/28/global-petroleum-use-hits-record-high-thanks-to-boom-in-asia/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Asia was consuming about 10 million barrels of oil per day in 1980, and by 2012 that volume tripled to nearly 30 million barrels per day. North America had dominated the chart for years, but moved to second place behind Asia in 2009. Rapidly industrializing economies in China and India have been fueling the growth. China increased petroleum consumption 2.8 million bbl/d and India by 800,000 bbl/d between 2008 and 2012. China is expected to surpass the US as the world's largest oil importer this fall....

About the chinese "middle class":
The annual disposable income per capita in the US is $40k. For the Chinese it is $3k. Take the urban middle class there and it is maybe $6k.
Annual gas expenditures for gas in the US per capita are ~ $2k.
They have a long way to go still and are in no position to seriously compete for oil and gas with the US (or Europe) yet...

If you look at the video, you'll see that Asia's oil consumption is greater than North America's and is about double Europe's.

I just found http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?topL=con" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Although China's oil consumption is "only" 55% that of the US, they're the #2 consumer in the world. Seems like competition to me...

Doesn't it seem crazy that although the US has ~4.5% of the world's population that we consume over 20% of the world's oil production?

 

[klapauzius]

Asia was consuming about 10 million barrels of oil per day in 1980, and by 2012 that volume tripled to nearly 30 million barrels per day. North America had dominated the chart for years, but moved to second place behind Asia in 2009. Rapidly industrializing economies in China and India have been fueling the growth. China increased petroleum consumption 2.8 million bbl/d and India by 800,000 bbl/d between 2008 and 2012. China is expected to surpass the US as the world's largest oil importer this fall....

Well, some people in China are as rich as in the US,

http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/26/news/economy/china-middle-class/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and gas is even more expensive:

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2013/07/20/Gasoline-prices-rise-3-percent-in-China/UPI-39261374332492/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

$4.73 per gallon of gas in Shanghai.

But I assume that is not the national average. At these prices, they have to subsidize and that will cost them a lot of money...
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/07/22/Chinese-fuel-prices-on-the-rise/UPI-12851374492012/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

At these prices though (compared to average income), they will need EVs even more than we do in the long run.
Good for us, since eventually a mass market will come about and hopefully we will benefit from it.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Interesting... the article implies price controls in China (not surprisingly). I don't follow the Chinese gasoline market but I'd heard of price controls there for awhile.

Here's an old article, for example.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/27/gas-inflation-china-oped-cx_dhs_0528oilchina.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
5/28/2008 @ 6:00AM

Why, In China, Gas Is $2.49 A Gallon
...
Current consumption is now about 8 million barrels a day and rising at a rapid 7% annual rate, the highest growth rate in the world.
...
Consider the following: Since January 2007, global crude oil prices have risen by 109%; gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen by 77% (roughly apace); gasoline prices in China have risen only 9%.

Gasoline in the U.S. now sells for around $4 per gallon, but it sells for $2.49 per gallon in China. Beijing last raised domestic gasoline prices in November 2007, by 9%, and that was the first and only hike since January 2007, when crude was $87 per barrel.

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/Business/energy/Local-gas-rates-hiked-as-crude-soars/shdaily.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; appears to be the source of info for that UPI article.

 

[walterbays]

$4.73 per gallon of gas in Shanghai.

I'm visiting now and though there may be few to none electric cars, two wheeled evs are doing well. It seems like there are almost as many electric bikes, mopeds, and scooters as cars. Certainly there are many more of them than gas powered motorbikes, at least downtown.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
You probably also noticed that the subway is relatively cheap and (to me) seemed fairly extensive. Map at http://www.shmetro.com/EnglishPage/EnglishPage.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

For those in the SF Bay Area, BART and Caltrain are a total joke, in comparison, esp. for coverage within a given city.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Aldric and others pretty much hit it. doesnt matter where gas prices go, we will still pay it.

gas jumps up say 15%, we bitch, we renew our efforts to conserve and we use less, consumption goes down and prices drop but not back to where they were. so 6 months later we think we are getting a bargain because we are paying prices that are 12% lower than 2 months ago barely realizing that gas is a quarter more than it was before the rise. But that 12 % drop will still fuel a new spate of large car buyers anyway.

we just never learn

obtw; that $2000 in gas for a household? is a bit of a stretch. if gas averages $3.65 a gallon this year (its gonna have to get a lot cheaper to hit that!) that is 547 gallons or 273.5 gallons per commuter since most households have two or more. Well, my household will definitely hit $2000 in gas this year (about 1370 YTD and pace of gas use is accelerating. remember, the gas car had a pretty short commute for first 5 months of the year)

but at 30 mpg that is only 8190 miles. guessing a better average is closer to 11-12,000 miles per commuter

 

[johnrhansen]

If we keep fighting expensive wars in the middle east, we will end up going broke and we wont be able to afford to drive anything around gas or electric.

 

[klapauzius]

One would hope that the current middle east crisis will drive home the point that we need serious alternatives to oil-based individual mobility.

If people are not open to reason, they might listen to their pocketbooks....

If the gas prices were to double, electric cars will look like a very sweet alternative.

 

[cwerdna]

One would hope that the current middle east crisis will drive home the point that we need serious alternatives to oil-based individual mobility.

If people are not open to reason, they might listen to their pocketbooks....

If the gas prices were to double, electric cars will look like a very sweet alternative.

Yes, it seems the only way to get Americans to listen is via visibly higher gas prices. But, it only seems to have a short-term effect.

I wish people would think more about it in different terms before buying guzzler monstrosity battering rams of death.

Right now per http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/?redirectto=http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, average price of regular unleaded is $3.594.

If someone decided to buy a BRoD 15 mpg combined Ford Expedition instead of 28 mpg combined Camry (already better than the TrueCar TrueMPG), it would be like having gas prices go from $3.594 to $6.70/gal. Americans would be pissed if gas prices went up to $6.70/gal, but that sure doesn't seem to stop BRoD buyers, despite the BRoDs's MSRP starting at over $41K and almost every one that I see being driven around solo or w/minimal cargo and passengers. BRoDs seem to infest my area.

The difference is more dramatic when comparing the 200 hp 41 mpg combined Camry Hybrid to the 15 mpg BRoD. It'd be like raising the gas price from $3.594 to $9.82/gal! Surely, that car is more than adequate to carry around a single person or w/min of cargo and passengers I've observed besides not being too wimpy in acceleration. Besides the fuel savings, the HyCam stickers at $15K less than the base Expedition.

Feel free to run some numbers as to your Leaf's cost per mile w/your electricity charges vs. the HyCam or the Prius.

Supporting URLs:
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=33324&id=33372&id=33374&id=33251" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://blog.truecar.com/2013/08/22/average-fuel-economy-for-new-vehicles-rises-0-7-mpg-as-record-setting-trend-hits-5th-consecutive-month/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2013/06/fuel-economy-vs-performance/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

What's a BRoD?

My thinking still is as long as it's just a matter of price all you get is a lot of bitching. A hiccup in availability is the real game changer.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Battering Rams of Death

 

[edatoakrun]

Battering Rams of Death

No need to use a pejorative.

The correct designation is SUV.

Slow Ugly Vehicle.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

no matter what you call them, cwerdna is right. I know too many people who are complaining right now that their gas bill has gone up $100 a month (they are paying $500 so not really a large percentage jump) driving a Honda SUV (gets about 22-23) and a Ford 4X4 pickup (gets about 17 or so he says...) but these were BOTH cars bought last year when gas was nearing $3.15 a gallon.

But they got the cars because gas had just come down from $4 and all of a sudden they felt they had an extra $100 a month! (how does that logic work???)

Both commute (he about 60-70 miles a day, her about 40-50) and she does all the running around with the kids and stuff and he goes straight to work and then home afterwards. might stop for something at the local store on the way home 1-2 times a month but that is about it.

I tried to talk to them about getting one EV and sharing it with the truck which does cover all the family needs but they didnt want to do it although both admitted leasing was a cheap, "no risk" way to check out EV tech...

 

[johnrhansen]

I've become a big EV advocate at my place of work. I've noticed that people go out of their way to tell me I should have bought a ICE powered car, or how that an electric car will not work for them, and other ways of trying to prove to me how silly of an idea an electric car is. There is lots of resistance to the idea of an EV in mainstream america, most of it not based on logic at all. Not really sure people are going to adopt it into the mainstream until they have to.

My career choice is kind of ironic for someone who is trying to be green. The aircraft I work on spew out more carbon in one flight than I would use driving an ICE car for my entire lifetime. Maybe that's the reason for the EV resistance where I work.

 

[klapauzius]

no matter what you call them, cwerdna is right. I know too many people who are complaining right now that their gas bill has gone up $100 a month (they are paying $500 so not really a large percentage jump) driving a Honda SUV (gets about 22-23) and a Ford 4X4 pickup (gets about 17 or so he says...) but these were BOTH cars bought last year when gas was nearing $3.15 a gallon.

But they got the cars because gas had just come down from $4 and all of a sudden they felt they had an extra $100 a month! (how does that logic work???)

Both commute (he about 60-70 miles a day, her about 40-50) and she does all the running around with the kids and stuff and he goes straight to work and then home afterwards. might stop for something at the local store on the way home 1-2 times a month but that is about it.

I tried to talk to them about getting one EV and sharing it with the truck which does cover all the family needs but they didnt want to do it although both admitted leasing was a cheap, "no risk" way to check out EV tech...

It seems that money, like gas, comes from some mysterious, infinite reservoir, and its dispensation is not related to real world factors such as IQ, availability or environment.

A 70 mile commute in a 4x4 truck?
Did you forget to tell us he is in construction or logging and needs the truck at work to haul around heavy loads over unpaved roads? That would make perfect sense.

 

[klapauzius]

I've become a big EV advocate at my place of work. I've noticed that people go out of their way to tell me I should have bought a ICE powered car, or how that an electric car will not work for them, and other ways of trying to prove to me how silly of an idea an electric car is. There is lots of resistance to the idea of an EV in mainstream america, most of it not based on logic at all. Not really sure people are going to adopt it into the mainstream until they have to.

My career choice is kind of ironic for someone who is trying to be green. The aircraft I work on spew out more carbon in one flight than I would use driving an ICE car for my entire lifetime. Maybe that's the reason for the EV resistance where I work.

On the positive side, I have seen the opposite. People actually got a Leaf after seeing ours and doing the math, i.e found that their lease was cheaper than their current gas costs.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

no matter what you call them, cwerdna is right. I know too many people who are complaining right now that their gas bill has gone up $100 a month (they are paying $500 so not really a large percentage jump) driving a Honda SUV (gets about 22-23) and a Ford 4X4 pickup (gets about 17 or so he says...) but these were BOTH cars bought last year when gas was nearing $3.15 a gallon.

But they got the cars because gas had just come down from $4 and all of a sudden they felt they had an extra $100 a month! (how does that logic work???)

Both commute (he about 60-70 miles a day, her about 40-50) and she does all the running around with the kids and stuff and he goes straight to work and then home afterwards. might stop for something at the local store on the way home 1-2 times a month but that is about it.

I tried to talk to them about getting one EV and sharing it with the truck which does cover all the family needs but they didnt want to do it although both admitted leasing was a cheap, "no risk" way to check out EV tech...

It seems that money, like gas, comes from some mysterious, infinite reservoir, and its dispensation is not related to real world factors such as IQ, availability or environment.

A 70 mile commute in a 4x4 truck?
Did you forget to tell us he is in construction or logging and needs the truck at work to haul around heavy loads over unpaved roads? That would make perfect sense.

umm, no. He works for a company that contracts package delivery for UPS. IOW, he drives a Semi. He used to have 2 cars. A 28 mpg Ford Fusion and a 1990 Ford pickup. He needs a truck because he does have boat, camper, etc. and his old truck which did not have full extended cab (he had those child jump seats that sit sideways...his kids too big for that option)

but the Honda was a strange one. there is only one kid that needs chauffeuring any more so getting large car was a strange decision. Her commute is only about 20-25 miles and the extra is random errands picking up kid, shopping, etc.

the real tragic thing is they voiced concerns over gas mileage but did not want a compact car...my alternative car for them was a Prius or a Fusion hybrid (they really liked their old Fusion) but they balked at the price (the Honda cost about $1,000 more...)

 

[johnrhansen]

So many people use an inefficient vehicle every day just so they can use it a few times a year for it's intended purpose. I know several people who commute a lot of miles to work every day in a full size 4wd pickup, just so they can haul their boat around a few times a year during the summer. What's going on is that with what they paid for the big truck, they can't afford another car payment so they are forced to drive it. It baffles me. So many better ideas, why do people not do it? They are plenty smart. They just do dumb things.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

So many people use an inefficient vehicle every day just so they can use it a few times a year for it's intended purpose. I know several people who commute a lot of miles to work every day in a full size 4wd pickup, just so they can haul their boat around a few times a year during the summer. What's going on is that with what they paid for the big truck, they can't afford another car payment so they are forced to drive it. It baffles me. So many better ideas, why do people not do it? They are plenty smart. They just do dumb things.

my in laws do that but both work locally and have about 10 mile RT commutes. so they are doing it right if one "has" to drive inefficient vehicles