Nubo
Well-known member
LakeLeaf said:Jimmydreams said:I think Nissan is wondering (and rightly so) how the batteries will last when in the hands of your average, everyday driver.
Asking first adopters of this kind of technology what they can live with, at least to me, is very different then trying to determine what the warranty needs to be to get the car in the hands of the "average, everyday driver". Nissan is clearly trying to ramp up the production of the vehicle to be a common, everyday car for the average commuter - they clearly are marketing to this segment and not to just the enthusiast segment.
Because of that - I would think that the average buyer would look for Nissan to at least match the Prius California battery warranty - 10 years or 150,000 miles. That is certainly what I am looking for.
To think about spending $37k on a car (car, tax, title, license - forget the tax break as it will only be in place for very early buyers) that might end up being drivable for only 40-50 miles in real world situations (varied weather and roads) and then may lose more then 25% of that range within just a couple of years - it's a no brainer to pass on it. People need a car to get them where they are going every trip - not just when the weather is perfect and the roads are flat. Most folks don't have the luxury of spending this type of coin for a fair weather only car.
What's the point of talking about how little maintenance the car will need because it has no engine, no transmission, etc. etc. etc. when you have to spend $10-$15k on new batteries after only 5 years. I'm not interested buying such a vehicle. I'm glad this car is better for the environment - but in order to convince the average person to buy it - it has to be better for their environment. The average person is not going to increase their transportation budget by 50% just for the inconvenience of buying a car that only goes around the block a few times. I bought a 2010 Prius and expect to drive it for at least 10 years and expect to not incur any significant maintenance costs over that time period. Between the low cost of the Prius, and the savings in gas, and the strong warranty - I expect that car to be good for my bottom line as well as the environments. If Nissan can convince me the same is true of the Leaf, I will be that too. If, on the other hand, the Leaf costs more to run then a Prius, or another hybrid or ICE, I'm out.
If Nissan wants to truly make this an everyday car for the average person - they need to really step up to the plate on the warranty. To cover their bases - if this means increasing the number of batteries in the car at time of sale to be sure a minimum range is still there after 1, 5, 8, 10 years - so be it. Selling a car that may barely be enough to get the job done on day one under ideal conditions, and then degrading from there isn't going to get Nissan where they want to be. Selling a car that over-delivers for those willing to drive it nicely will certainly help. So far, we have no indications that the Leaf will over-deliver. Some of the allure of the Prius is reading how person after person is able to get 55, 60, 65, and better MPG with the car - heck I've even bettered those numbers so it can't be too hard to do. This encourages everyone to to try to drive it a manner that it exceeds it's advertisement. With the Prius - even if you just get in and drive - it's pretty hard to not get the EPA mileage rating (unless of course you are my wife). If Nissan wants the Leaf to be a success - the average Joe needs to be able to get in and regularly achieve 100 miles to a charge - and enthusiasts need to be able to get significantly more then that. If only the hardcore EV'ers can get 100 miles to a charge, and the batteries degrade quickly, the car will be a miserable failure.
Certainly you should expect to be able to do things to kill the mileage and the battery life - but those activities should be outside the general operating curve of the car for the average person. If Nissan has some way to measure that type of driving and take it into account in the warranty - great. (How they do that, I don't know).
So I say - battery warranty needs to be at least 10 years and 150,000 miles. Range needs to be at least 100 miles under normal - not ideal - driving conditions, and the range can't degrade more then 10% over 10 years. If that means that more batteries need to be added to insure the average person will be getting 90 miles on a charge after 10 years, then that is what is needed.
I do agree the car needs to meet the specs they have advertised, and hopefully exceed them. But I think some of your expectations may be unjustified/unrealistic. The Prius cells live a much easier life than an EV. I don't have the actual figures but I've read the state of charge of those batteries is kept within extremely conservative limits; maybe between 40% and 70% state of charge. That's fantastic for battery life, and suitable for a Hybrid. But not very realistic for a battery-powered car to only utilize 30% of the battery capacity. BEV requires more compromise in this area. What you're asking for really isn't in the cards with the current state of the art, as I understand it. Heck, 10/150,000 warranty is a bit much even for gas-powered drivetrains, and those have been undergoing refinements and worldwide R&D for over 100 years. Let's see what Nissan decides upon.