Nissan: “We Were Arrogant” about Electric Car Market

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GaslessInSeattle said:
actually, most folks I've mentioned our Tesla reservation to seem to think the Tesla is $100K and don't realize the base model is $49 K after rebate. Even with the high cost, a remarkable number of folks are still interested because it dazzles in pretty much every way. For $49K you get a super sexy car, 160 miles per charge and without the dramatic fluctuations you get without TMS, you also get 0-60 mph in 6.5 seconds and an 8 year, 100,000 mile battery warranty, that time shows, Tesla will actually stand behind rather than redefine as they go along. Nissan needs to understand their market the way Tesla understands theirs.

To put in perspective, Tesla has had their own misfire as far as indemnifying their early adopters from the vagaries of battery and system design flaws. If the Roadster is not left plugged in, the car will "brick" the battery in a startlingly short period of time. Of course they were happy to sell you a new pack for the nominal price of $40,000.

While it can be reasonably argued that Tesla made this requirement clear, the bottom line IMHO is that they seriously flubbed by making the customer responsible for the consequences of Tesla's poor design choices. The public hears about customers being on the hook for a $40,000 part and they run away from EVs, screaming, with their hair on fire.

hair.jpg


Thankfully, LEAF owners have a car that doesn't self-destruct in a matter of days!
 
It wasn't that "startingly short..." About 12 weeks if the car was fully charged to one week if it was left fully empty... Still, there should have been protection to prevent it from happening at all.

Nubo said:
To put in perspective, Tesla has had their own misfire as far as indemnifying their early adopters from the vagaries of battery and system design flaws. If the Roadster is not left plugged in, the car will "brick" the battery in a startlingly short period of time. Of course they were happy to sell you a new pack for the nominal price of $40,000
 
Nissan wonders why sales didn't double, or even increase in the second year. Giving me the option for more battery allows me to select how space is to be used. Range is far more valuable to me than having empty storage room.

Allowing end users to design this much of their car could be very attractive. In the Spring of 1964 when Ford first offered the Mustang, it was advertised at a very low price, but buyers were allowed to select from dozens of options which could virtually double the price. Buyers did, and Ford had the most successful new car intro ever. Of course, no EV is a head to head compro to that, but success is worth considering.
 
garygid said:
The current recession and lack of jobs could have something
to do with lagging EV sales. Many just do not have the money.
Sure the economy and unemployment rate aren't good but I dunno about that. From http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513604577140440852581080.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (Google for U.S. Auto Sales Finish Year Strong wsj, if you can't read the article, in order to get past their pay wall)
Light vehicles sales for all of 2011 totaled 12.8 million, Autodata said, an increase of 10.3% from 2010.
From http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, cars and "light-duty trucks" (all non-cars) are up YTD from 2011 w/cars up 19.1% and "light trucks" up 8.8%.
 
jackal said:
evnow said:
You can't put a 300 mile pack in a compact & still have usable space in the car.
They don't have to restrict themselves to compact design if this is in the initial requirements.

Anyhow, I suspect that compact is not even the issue. If you see their other EVs in various forms, (vans, infiniti) which are way bigger, the battery pack remains pathetic and there is no bigger range options.
Only EV on sale currently is Leaf. Don't look at the concepts to determine production specs.

Just adding a bigger battery (in a bigger car, for more money) is not rocket science. Even Coda does that.
 
dgpcolorado said:
I think the LEAF is more of a mid-size car than a compact, although I could be wrong about that. Certainly the interior space gives that "feel". The LEAF seems to be about the same size as a Prius; isn't that considered a mid-size car? By contrast, the Volt is a pretty cramped ride (and has hard, uncomfortable seats, to my surprise, having driven one on an eighty mile trip).

Technically, Leaf is mid-size. That is by EPA.

In car markets, they also have the idea of small cars etc. Leaf (and Prius, Volt) would fall in the small car category. This is really what I meant. Mid-Size would be something like Camry.
 
Bricking a Roadster is really not that easy, was warned against in the manual and sure, it's an early design limitation... and I'm not buying a roadster. The limitation has since been designed around in the S. With the Leaf though, if you happen to live in a warm climate, no matter how you drive or charge or how closely you follow the manual, the car essentially does appear to self destruct, at least with respect to range, and for some quite quickly, all the while with Nissan saying it's "normal". Nissan needs to do something about their battery chemistry or add TMS! And to keep heads turning, they are going to need to offer a longer range option, say 30 or 40 kW's.

Nubo said:
GaslessInSeattle said:
actually, most folks I've mentioned our Tesla reservation to seem to think the Tesla is $100K and don't realize the base model is $49 K after rebate. Even with the high cost, a remarkable number of folks are still interested because it dazzles in pretty much every way. For $49K you get a super sexy car, 160 miles per charge and without the dramatic fluctuations you get without TMS, you also get 0-60 mph in 6.5 seconds and an 8 year, 100,000 mile battery warranty, that time shows, Tesla will actually stand behind rather than redefine as they go along. Nissan needs to understand their market the way Tesla understands theirs.

To put in perspective, Tesla has had their own misfire as far as indemnifying their early adopters from the vagaries of battery and system design flaws. If the Roadster is not left plugged in, the car will "brick" the battery in a startlingly short period of time. Of course they were happy to sell you a new pack for the nominal price of $40,000.

While it can be reasonably argued that Tesla made this requirement clear, the bottom line IMHO is that they seriously flubbed by making the customer responsible for the consequences of Tesla's poor design choices. The public hears about customers being on the hook for a $40,000 part and they run away from EVs, screaming, with their hair on fire.

hair.jpg


Thankfully, LEAF owners have a car that doesn't self-destruct in a matter of days!
 
pksd1 said:
Tesla has and will have problems of their own especially when (WHEN?) they start to sell these cars.

"When they start to sell these cars?" how about 90+ a day, right now with thousands already on the road! Took an extended drive in a production model today, an absolutely mind bogglingly amazing vehicle, well surpasses all the beta's and test drive versions in Tesla stores. But yes, it will take time to see if the car and company stand the test of time.



dgpcolorado said:
GaslessInSeattle said:
...and an 8 year, 100,000 mile battery warranty, that time shows, Tesla will actually stand behind rather than redefine as they go along. Nissan needs to understand their market the way Tesla understands theirs.
This assumes that Tesla will be around in eight years to do the warranty work. While I am hopeful that will be the case, it is by no means certain.

Indeed, the future is uncertain, but this company has all the ingredients to be the Apple of the auto industry, fingers crossed!
 
GaslessInSeattle said:
"When they start to sell these cars?" how about 90+ a day, right now with thousands already on the road! Took an extended drive in a production model today, an absolutely mind bogglingly amazing vehicle, well surpasses all the beta's and test drive versions in Tesla stores. But yes, it will take time to see if the car and company stand the test of time.

pksd1 said:
Tesla has and will have problems of their own especially when (WHEN?) they start to sell these cars.
I think he's talking about the 40 kWh model w/a (I believe) still unknown EPA range rating.
 
After owning my leaf for just a few days im learning that the place i normally like to go, large malls, restaurants that arent in downtown seattle dont offer L2 charging. so if i cant make the return on one charge it is not convenient to take the leaf. I dont want to go to a mall and have to wall 1.5 miles to it. it seems like most charging outside the city center is located hospitals, municipality buildings, and nissan dealers. (most who wont let you charge without THEIR plate frame or a sale. which is a huge mistake for the overall movement!!) here in south sound there are 10 shopping areas/movie theaters within 25 highway mile with no close by charging. THAT is the problem.
 
I currently have no problems with my LEAF. Its range meets my daily needs. As to how well the car (and battery) hold up over time, I shall see. The weather here in Philadephia is not too hot and not too cold, and so hopefully I won't have to deal with the problems caused by extreme heat or cold. The main thing which would occasionally help me is a better built-out public charging infrastructure. Right now, my house and a couple other spots are the only charging points I can absolutely count on, for anything else I have to have a backup plan. This is unacceptable to the masses, who count on the fact that there are gas stations everywhere.

While the LEAF is not perfect, it (the car itself) is very usable. What makes it unusable to most people is the poor development of the public charging infrastructure (compared to the development of the infrastucture for gasoline vehicles). Nissan needs to understand this; LEAF dealers need to understand it, so they can target the right kind of customer. I think, at least, someone at Nissan understood this at the beginning. I remember seeing this pie chart with three equal sized pieces representing the car, battery technology, and the charging infrastructure, and the text which accompanied the chart said that properly advanced technology for all 3 pieces were necessary for the EV to succeed. I'd say Nissan has been very successful at the car piece of the puzzle, moderately successful at the battery piece, but not very successful at the charging infrastucture piece. To be fair, Nissan doesn't have to build the gas stations for it gasoline cars, and they tried to do a good thing by putting in "public" charging points at their dealerships as a stopgap measure to help kickstart the EV revolution. But the problem with these dealership charge points is that they cannot be relied on in the way one can rely on a gas station. From dealers who plain refused to let drivers use them, to business hours only (somewhat restrictive in this era of high availability of 24-hour gas stations), to "call ahead" (come on, when was the last time you called ahead to a gas station), availability of these charge points just did not work out as they should have.

My point is, and this is coming from someone who has driving the LEAF as an only car for over 10 months and almost 11K miles, the car is not the problem, so Nissan, IMHO, you don't need to waste time trying to fix the design of the car. I love it the way it is. Although the battery is somewhat of an unknown at this point, and there have been some reported problems (although none for me so far), I still don't think its the largest problem. It is worthy of continued improvement, so if you're going to make changes to the car, improving the battery is where I think you could get the most "bang for the buck".

Now to the biggest problem: the charging infrastructure, or lack thereof. I see breaking into a few catagories:

1. The sheer magnitude of the required infrastrcture. In the past year and a half, here in Philly, we've gone from a single L2 public charge point to hundreds. But this is a drop in the bucket compared to the 10s of thousands to maybe millions that will be required. Right now there are zero quick-charge, they need to become as numerous as gas stations currently are.

2. The LEAF needs to intellegently support whatever infrastructure is deployed. So this may require minor desgin changes to the car.
a) Right now a 6.6KW on-board charger is a big thing because of scarcity of public charge points and the desire to pick up public charge as quickly as possible. Another driving factor for 6.6KW is current time-based pricing models. While it seems that they might eventually migrate to a kWh-based model, maybe not, since in the tradeoff the value of the parking space, which is traditionally charged by time, may be quite high compared to the value of the electricity consumed given that the circuit is limited to 30A/240V.
b) Then there's the issue of connector standards. Be it SAE vs Chademo vs Tesla supercharger at the quick charge level or J1772 vs Tesla vs having-to-have-the-EVSE-brick for L1 (in USA) or L2 (European "commando"), there ultimately needs to be some resolution. How Nissan deals with this, while it probably won't have long term consequences, it might if important events occur close to one or more tipping points.

So, IMHO, it is charging infrastrcuture piece of the puzzle that is what "got away" from Nissan's original plans. They originally recognized the importance of it, but given the nature of the task, and given that their resources were already consumed by the other to pieces of the EV pie, Nissan counted on AeroVironment and Ecotality (and others) to handle that piece. I think we, and probably Nissan, too, are disappointed in the way AeroVironment and Ecotality fulfilled, or failed to fulfill, this role.
 
tps said:
I currently have no problems with my LEAF. Its range meets my daily needs. As to how well the car (and battery) hold up over time, I shall see. The weather here in Philadephia is not too hot and not too cold, and so hopefully I won't have to deal with the problems caused by extreme heat or cold. The main thing which would occasionally help me is a better built-out public charging infrastructure. Right now, my house and a couple other spots are the only charging points I can absolutely count on, for anything else I have to have a backup plan. This is unacceptable to the masses, who count on the fact that there are gas stations everywhere.

While the LEAF is not perfect, it (the car itself) is very usable. What makes it unusable to most people is the poor development of the public charging infrastructure (compared to the development of the infrastucture for gasoline vehicles). Nissan needs to understand this; LEAF dealers need to understand it, so they can target the right kind of customer. I think, at least, someone at Nissan understood this at the beginning. I remember seeing this pie chart with three equal sized pieces representing the car, battery technology, and the charging infrastructure, and the text which accompanied the chart said that properly advanced technology for all 3 pieces were necessary for the EV to succeed. I'd say Nissan has been very successful at the car piece of the puzzle, moderately successful at the battery piece, but not very successful at the charging infrastucture piece. To be fair, Nissan doesn't have to build the gas stations for it gasoline cars, and they tried to do a good thing by putting in "public" charging points at their dealerships as a stopgap measure to help kickstart the EV revolution. But the problem with these dealership charge points is that they cannot be relied on in the way one can rely on a gas station. From dealers who plain refused to let drivers use them, to business hours only (somewhat restrictive in this era of high availability of 24-hour gas stations), to "call ahead" (come on, when was the last time you called ahead to a gas station), availability of these charge points just did not work out as they should have.

My point is, and this is coming from someone who has driving the LEAF as an only car for over 10 months and almost 11K miles, the car is not the problem, so Nissan, IMHO, you don't need to waste time trying to fix the design of the car. I love it the way it is. Although the battery is somewhat of an unknown at this point, and there have been some reported problems (although none for me so far), I still don't think its the largest problem. It is worthy of continued improvement, so if you're going to make changes to the car, improving the battery is where I think you could get the most "bang for the buck".

Now to the biggest problem: the charging infrastructure, or lack thereof. I see breaking into a few catagories:

1. The sheer magnitude of the required infrastrcture. In the past year and a half, here in Philly, we've gone from a single L2 public charge point to hundreds. But this is a drop in the bucket compared to the 10s of thousands to maybe millions that will be required. Right now there are zero quick-charge, they need to become as numerous as gas stations currently are.

2. The LEAF needs to intellegently support whatever infrastructure is deployed. So this may require minor desgin changes to the car.
a) Right now a 6.6KW on-board charger is a big thing because of scarcity of public charge points and the desire to pick up public charge as quickly as possible. Another driving factor for 6.6KW is current time-based pricing models. While it seems that they might eventually migrate to a kWh-based model, maybe not, since in the tradeoff the value of the parking space, which is traditionally charged by time, may be quite high compared to the value of the electricity consumed given that the circuit is limited to 30A/240V.
b) Then there's the issue of connector standards. Be it SAE vs Chademo vs Tesla supercharger at the quick charge level or J1772 vs Tesla vs having-to-have-the-EVSE-brick for L1 (in USA) or L2 (European "commando"), there ultimately needs to be some resolution. How Nissan deals with this, while it probably won't have long term consequences, it might if important events occur close to one or more tipping points.

So, IMHO, it is charging infrastrcuture piece of the puzzle that is what "got away" from Nissan's original plans. They originally recognized the importance of it, but given the nature of the task, and given that their resources were already consumed by the other to pieces of the EV pie, Nissan counted on AeroVironment and Ecotality (and others) to handle that piece. I think we, and probably Nissan, too, are disappointed in the way AeroVironment and Ecotality fulfilled, or failed to fulfill, this role.

Well said. I hope Nissan makes 2013 the "year of infrastructure"!
 
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