Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[lorenfb]

Did you intend to say "Tesla Model 3" in your last post, given what your other post stated? The MS is not expected to have significant growth in 2018 over 2017 (~ 50K).

Yes. Thanks for the correction. I will edit my post...

You're welcome. And thank you for your recent contributions to this thread, as they seem to have helped to reduce some of the emotion
and provided rational insights some may have not considered.

 

[Zythryn]

Software version 10.5 just got delivered. Nice improvements and some changes based on customer feedback.
I am looking forward to getting a chance to take it out and check out any improvements to autopilot.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Here is the vid. It is exciting to know we're on the cusp of this.

The cusp?

I'll just try to get through these turns and then I'll activate it again...

Cars have been in this country for over a hundred years, so in the grand scheme, yes, the cusp.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Tesla keeps bungling this production ramp. I reserved last year because I expected a $35k well featured Tesla (they even said it would have auto drive--sorry, auto drive hardware :roll. A reasonably appointed Tesla with auto drive even without federal credit would be a steal for $35k. But with the endless delays I won't get a nickel of federal, and to get a model 3 worth owning (the basic one has less features than cars costing 2/3rd as much) I'd need premium plus eap, so I'm out $45k, which feels too much for what the car is.
...
I really do believe Tesla was--let's say--"disingenuous" with the $35k. I put a reservation in with intent for the $35k. They start producing LR cars in mid 2017, but now all they care about is LR after LR, even though getting SR out the door would actually require slightly less resources (pack is smaller). Even early reservation holders will have to wait well over a year for the SR, while tesla sells as many of the expensive one as they can.

I agree. As I pointed out at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/might-order-my-3-soon-very-begrudgingly.110591/page-8#post-2616476, Elon at the Model 3 claimed deliveries would begin 2017 and that the price would be $35K w/o any specifics. It wasn't until much later did their FAQ say

Additional configurations, including the Model 3 with standard equipment for $35,000, will become available as production ramps, which we expect to be in November 2017.

Well, we're way past that and there's still no standard range version available and nothing available for $35K.

And then you have fanboys like this guy at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/might-order-my-3-soon-very-begrudgingly.110591/page-8#post-2616480 and https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/might-order-my-3-soon-very-begrudgingly.110591/page-8#post-2616528 slamming me and others for "entitlement" because there's no $35K car yet. :roll:

More than a few people seem to be annoyed, and count me as one of them, that Tesla is so dedicated to not making the $35k variant that now it appears they are going to release the AWD one first. Most people's delivery estimates indicate they can buy AWD first. That is surely going to be with the LR and pup, so a massively expensive car.

I'm keeping my $1k out of habit now with Tesla but I have mostly given up on it and don't terribly care anymore. The repeated BS moves from Tesla management has gotten into the territory of it's really my fault to keep subjecting myself to it.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Becase so many early reservations converted including many employees. Use you wallet and vote your voice. Cancel. It’s a conversion not a conspiracy. If you ask enough early reservation holders they opted for awd and other options. Glad to see a company support their employees as well.

 

[Nubo]

Here is the vid. It is exciting to know we're on the cusp of this.

The cusp?

I'll just try to get through these turns and then I'll activate it again...

Cars have been in this country for over a hundred years, so in the grand scheme, yes, the cusp.

Well in the grand scheme the Earth will be a burnt cinder orbiting a dwarf star, but I was shooting for something more relevant. :lol:

I'll put it this way, you won't be able to buy a fully autonomous car that is capable of driving all US roads, anytime in the next 20 years. There may be some available for roadways that have been upgraded to meet a certain autonomous standard but the general-purpose always-self-driving car with no provision for human driver and goes everywhere today's cars go? Nope.

 

[cwerdna]

I'll put it this way, you won't be able to buy a fully autonomous car that is capable of driving all US roads, anytime in the next 20 years. There may be some available for roadways that have been upgraded to meet a certain autonomous standard but the general-purpose always-self-driving car with no provision for human driver and goes everywhere today's cars go? Nope.

Yep. You're probably about right on that timeline for level 5 (https://web.archive.org/web/20161120142825/http://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf) deployed into actual customers' hands for use within the US.

It's quite comical that some fanboys like at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/i-am-now-planning-to-get-the-full-self-driving-option-and-here-is-why.108299/#post-2556640 say "I am essentially banking on FSD being released in 2019 and being more expensive. So I want to get it before the price increase. " :lol:

Not sure if that guy eventually became convinced after reading thru https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/autonomous-car-progress.99413/ and looking at efforts from companies who are WAY ahead like Waymo (Google's effort).

 

[EVDRIVER]

I don't expect to use full autonomous but I do expect to have improved and move advanced AP features built on the hardware in the car. I think anyone paying for the full autonomous option enabled now on a M3 is throwing money away.

 

[scottf200]

I'm keeping my $1k out of habit now with Tesla but I have mostly given up on it and don't terribly care anymore.

'habit'? That is a funny way of putting it since you don't repeat it You should just get your $1k back and use it for something else. Some segment of the population likes AWD even if they are not in snowy country. Some like it for rain conditions, freezing conditions, additional power/performance, ability to turn off in milliseconds for efficency on the highway, etc. Tesla is a business after all and needs to be $uccessful as a top priority to continue their growth and support existing customers!

 

[sparky]

Software version 10.5 just got delivered. Nice improvements and some changes based on customer feedback.
I am looking forward to getting a chance to take it out and check out any improvements to autopilot.

Aside from the AEB working up to 90 mph now, better EAP, on par with the 10.4 rollout for S/X, my favorite part of the update is the much improved rear camera. Fish-eye is reduced and aspect ratio is similar to S/X now. Love the OTA "refreshments". Heading out today 350 mi trip. Should be a good test.

Let me just add that despite liking much of what I see in the early Jag I-Pace show-and-tell, Tesla is the only BEV where I can wake up and learn I need to drive 340 mi from SoCal-NorCal in a couple hours and without any planning, just get in the car and go.

 

[lorenfb]

I'll put it this way, you won't be able to buy a fully autonomous car that is capable of driving all US roads, anytime in the next 20 years. There may be some available for roadways that have been upgraded to meet a certain autonomous standard but the general-purpose always-self-driving car with no provision for human driver and goes everywhere today's cars go? Nope.

Yep. You're probably about right on that timeline for level 5 (https://web.archive.org/web/20161120142825/http://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf) deployed into actual customers' hands for use within the US.

It's quite comical that some fanboys like at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/i-am-now-planning-to-get-the-full-self-driving-option-and-here-is-why.108299/#post-2556640 say "I am essentially banking on FSD being released in 2019 and being more expensive. So I want to get it before the price increase. " :lol:

Not sure if that guy eventually became convinced after reading thru https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/autonomous-car-progress.99413/ and looking at efforts from companies who are WAY ahead like Waymo (Google's effort).

Yes, Tesla has real competition:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4159335-another-nail-teslas-self-driving-dreams?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

Things don’t stand still, though. So the question again beckons. Who will be first to self-driving, Jaguar or Tesla? You know the answer, don’t you?
After today’s news, the answer is obviously “Jaguar.” Tesla doesn’t have a prayer. The reason, of course, is simple: Jaguar just teamed with Google/Waymo (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) to introduce self-driving into the Jaguar I-Pace. Google/Waymo has long been the self-driving leader. And the I-Pace is the same Jaguar which compares favorably to the Tesla Model X on many counts, including price.
This isn’t just about bragging rights, though. There are at least two practical consequences from today’s development:
• One is that everybody is ahead of Tesla when it comes to self-driving.
• The other is that as a result of the first, Tesla’s practice of selling FSD snake oil will make for an ever-more-present liability.
Tesla is still selling cars with an FSD promise. A promise it can’t deliver. A promise, even for those out there optimistic enough that it can deliver somewhere down the road, it can’t deliver in useful time. By “useful time," I mean a couple of things:
• Tesla can’t deliver FSD in time for the two-year and three-year leases it sold cars on (with the FSD promise) to actually enjoy the feature. For these owners it's a straight certainty that they were wronged. For all others, it's a matter of what's "reasonable," but they can point to an entire class of owners for which it obviously wasn't reasonable - and that implies it wasn't reasonable for anyone.
• Tesla can’t deliver FSD ahead of other automakers. For now, this looks like “all other automakers” (as long as they’re willing to partner with Waymo, though Tesla also trails General Motors (NYSE:GM)).

The key point for present owners of a Tesla vehicle is that the existing AP processor, e.g. Nvidia GPU, installed in their vehicle will
unlikely be capable of FSD when the technology/software becomes available. No OTA update will solve that issue, i.e. a new updated
processor (hardware) will need to be installed, if even possible at a significant cost to the owner for an upgrade.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Tesla is the Kleenex of EVs. Does anyone really take other manufacturers efforts seriously? I don't. Certainly not Nissan with their self destructing batteries in cars that brick if you fast charge them. They seemingly haven't learned a thing in the nearly eight years since they entered the market, and I don't see anything that makes me think others will do any better.

 

[lorenfb]

Does anyone really take other manufacturers efforts seriously? I don't. Certainly not Nissan with their self destructing batteries in cars that brick if you fast charge them.

That's not always true, i.e. there're many methods of fast charging that don't contribute to significant battery degradation as do other factors;
ambient heat, battery charge/discharge - SOC used, age, and obviously chemistry.

 

[edatoakrun]

Tesla is the Kleenex of EVs...

Because it sells BEVs that are flammable, disposable, and end up carrying human waste?

 

[arnis]

The only thing Tesla does very well (cars only) is battery degradation and battery capacity.
EVERYTHING else is either average or worse than average (compared to premium vehicles).
And, I literally mean at least 90% of the whole vehicle when I say EVERYTHING

Maybe, just maybe, Model 3 has a good drivetrain, but it has not been proven yet.
Therefore I still stand in the long long line, but I'm not sufficiently satisfied right now.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

The cusp?

Cars have been in this country for over a hundred years, so in the grand scheme, yes, the cusp.

Well in the grand scheme the Earth will be a burnt cinder orbiting a dwarf star, but I was shooting for something more relevant. :lol:

I'll put it this way, you won't be able to buy a fully autonomous car that is capable of driving all US roads, anytime in the next 20 years. There may be some available for roadways that have been upgraded to meet a certain autonomous standard but the general-purpose always-self-driving car with no provision for human driver and goes everywhere today's cars go? Nope.

I understand level 5 to mean you can send the car down to navigate an unmarked road maybe figure out a fresh cut path through an open field or something like that. And yeah that's far off, but also it's irrelevant, nobody needs/cares about it.

Level 3 read a book while the car goes from onramp to exit, reliably through gridlock traffic, highway speeds, avoids accidents, etc .we're very close to it. 2-3 years for a competent system maybe...? Level 4, meaning leave my driveway and arrive to work while reading a book and it navigates traffic lights would be beyond that.

The problem with estimating this stuff is unlike building a house with a known process and end point, this is only complete when it's complete. Until we are there we can't say exactly how far off it is.

 

[GRA]

I understand level 5 to mean you can send the car down to navigate an unmarked road maybe figure out a fresh cut path through an open field or something like that. And yeah that's far off, but also it's irrelevant, nobody needs/cares about it.

Level 3 read a book while the car goes from onramp to exit, reliably through gridlock traffic, highway speeds, avoids accidents, etc .we're very close to it. 2-3 years for a competent system maybe...? Level 4, meaning leave my driveway and arrive to work while reading a book and it navigates traffic lights would be beyond that.

The problem with estimating this stuff is unlike building a house with a known process and end point, this is only complete when it's complete. Until we are there we can't say exactly how far off it is.

No, those aren't quite what the SAE levels are. L3 still requires that the driver be able to take over in an emergency at short notice and take the right action despite being disengaged from the situation, something that humans are lousy at. L4 is true autonomy, limited to certain situations but not requiring any rapid handoff to a human in an emergency, and L5 is anywhere/time a human can drive, the car without any need for human intervention ever. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Classification

 

[RegGuheert]

This article was posted elswhere as its own thread, but I think it belongs here.

Tesla's problem with Model 3 production may be too much automation:

The top Japanese car-makers attempt to limit automation (the use of robots) because according to statistics the automation correlates to quality. Perhaps this is why Tesla's quality issues with the flawed parts have slowed down the delivery of Model 3 vehicles.

The Japanese car-makers are doing the opposite of what Tesla does. First, they want to make sure their process is right, then they bring in the robots for automation. Tesla has started with automation. Fiat and Volkswagen have already tried this and failed. They have tried to bring more automation and have also failed.

It seems their approach is known to have serious drawbacks, yet they are pursuing it anyway.

Assuming this assessment is accurate, then the question becomes this: Is Tesla willing to die on the altar of "automation at all cost"?

ETA: I suppose this could be yet another factor which accounts for the difference in ramp rates between the Tesla Model 3 and the 2018 Nissan LEAF.

 

[lpickup]

The top Japanese car-makers attempt to limit automation (the use of robots) because according to statistics the automation correlates to quality. Perhaps this is why Tesla's quality issues with the flawed parts have slowed down the delivery of Model 3 vehicles.

I have no idea whether it's true or not (sounds plausible though), but I'll even one-up that...not only is Tesla attempting to highly automate the line, they are simultaneously (although not successfully at this point) attempting to speed the automation up to unprecedented levels. Either one alone is probably difficult. The combination of these two things would be quite risky.

I do think they'll get over the hump, but clearly it's way more difficult than they expected.

 

[Zythryn]

...It seems their approach is known to have serious drawbacks, yet they are pursuing it anyway.
...

The approach of trying to land rocket stages also has serious drawbacks, yet SpaceX pursued that route anyways.
Perhaps the advantages are worth the challenge?