Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[goldbrick]

That is certainly possible and I hope it's the case.

I write firmware for a living and I am actually looking forward to fully automated cars for my old age but I'm not optimistic that the firmware community at large is up for the task of writing code up to the standards of DO-178B or equivalent. The airline industry has proven that commercial software can be extremely reliable but their product cycles and marketing requirements are obviously different.

 

[edatoakrun]

Regardless of who has access to what code, etc, am I the only one surprised that an issue with the operation of the brakes could be identified, updated and sent out to the field in 1 week? That just seems like it wouldn't leave much time for testing and all that stuff....

You might want to read and comment on the article below:

Tesla's Rapid Braking Software Update Is Great, But Hides More Fundamental Problems

Recently Consumer Reports completed its initial evaluation of the Tesla Model 3 and declined to recommend the car based on sub-standard braking performance. As usual, this sent Tesla CEO Elon Musk on a Twitter tirade that included promises to fix the performance with an over-the-air software update. The update has now been pushed out to cars and a retest by Consumer Reports showed stopping distances on pavement improved by 19 feet. While that is a laudable achievement, it also highlights a more insidious problem at Tesla with inadequate testing and validation processes...

As a product development engineer, I spent 17 years working on electronic slip control systems including ABS, traction and stability control. For any given vehicle program we typically spent anywhere from 12 to 18 months testing multiple vehicles with all of the available combinations of braking and suspension hardware and tires. These tests were run on a broad range of surfaces including asphalt, wet ceramic and basalt tiles, powdered and pack snow, glare ice, and various combinations. We went from the heat of Arizona and Florida to the frozen reaches of northern Minnesota and Sweden.

The goal of all this was to develop algorithms and calibrations that would work consistently across anything that a driver might encounter in the real world. This process often entailed compromises that might trade off one surface a bit to gain some stopping distance or stability on another. As we approached a production freeze, we would be battling to cut an extra foot of stopping distance, not 20 feet. On pavement in particular, the performance was generally pretty consistent. Before anything was released to production, it had to go through an extensive review and validation process.

The fact that Tesla engineers were able to slash nearly 20 feet of stopping distance in a couple of days is a sign that there was something fundamentally broken in what they were doing, particularly given the inconsistent results not just between different testers, but even in CR’s own testing...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2018/05/30/rapid-tesla-software-updates-are-great-but-hide-more-fundamental-problems/#74b2834e57de

Due to the obvious safety implications, you would think that Tesla would have prioritized their work on braking performance, and installed the optimum algorithms and calibrations before beginning deliveries, much less almost a year afterward, as elaborated on in the comment below:

Musk doesn’t get it: Why Tesla’s attitude toward over-the-air updates of critical systems is worrying

You shouldn’t tinker with the functionality of the Model 3’s brakes via a casual ‘firmware update’

....The bigger problem here is Musk’s -- and by extension, Tesla’s -- attitude toward something as absolutely critical as vehicular braking. Musk claims that, despite the reports, the braking of all Model 3s the company has sold fall within acceptable, safe parameters, and the upcoming “firmware update” will be rolled out to address the inconsistency problems.

Never mind that he wants to have it both ways here (“the brakes aren’t broken, but we’re fixing them anyway”): That he believes a system as important as brakes can and should be fiddled with from afar is telling...

The important thing is that fixing -- er, optimizing -- the Model 3’s braking system is not like updating a smartphone OS or an app: This is about altering the performance of a system that, for the safety of those inside a given vehicle and on the roadways around it, should perform reliably and consistently for the life of a vehicle (assuming it has been maintained properly).

Brakes are something that should have been nailed down before any Model 3s made it into consumers’ driveways...

http://autoweek.com/article/technology/musk-doesnt-get-it-why-teslas-attitude-toward-over-air-updates-critical-vehicle

 

[dgpcolorado]

It depends. It may have been done already and Tesla rolls updates in waves, monitors them and then continues on. The update may have been pretty much done and the pushed it to that car after it was identified. Tesla owners know that not everyone gets the same update or updates at the same time. Some updates can be very staggered and also targeted. I get updated pushed to my car and it is even possible to revert back to an older update if you have the ability. When visiting service they push any updates to your car you may not have received based on the schedule. Regardless it's not surprising. The deep OTA update feature has many benefits to consumers accompanied by drawbacks as an auto maker can release products before they are fully refined. So far Tesla owners seem to be ok with the trade offs and it gives Tesla haters something to latch onto and gripe about of course.

Tesla's OTA update process is fascinating. A new update gets pushed to just a few cars and if feedback comes back that something unexpected escaped internal testing, it gets halted and a new update is written and pushed a few days later. Otherwise it goes to wide release and everybody gets it. (From what I've seen.)

I've had sixteen OTA updates in a little more than two years and that doesn't count several that I skipped early on. Some are basic bug fixes but many add new features ranging from fairly minor — a "ping" on Homelink to help know when it activates — to quite significant, such as "camper mode" that allows climate control to remain on while the car is parked (helpful when leaving children or pets in the car). [Last I heard the Model 3 doesn't have camper mode yet.] The big one for me was the improvement in navigation that was pushed out in April. The new nav is really good at estimating remaining battery level on long trip legs when traveling on highways with speed limits of 75 and 80 mph. It is a big improvement over the energy estimation algorithm that was used in the old navigation. To say that I am pleased with Tesla's OTA updates would be an understatement!

 

[edatoakrun]

Estimated 6,250 M3 sales in USA in May:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-may-2018-u-s/

Quite a bit short of most recent 5k/week- 6k/week production by June-July claims from TSLA.

Anyone heard when/if model 3 production restarted after the last production shutdown?

 

[mtndrew1]

Estimated 6,250 M3 sales in USA (and, IIRC, including Canada) in May:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-may-2018-u-s/

Quite a bit short of most recent 5k/week- 6k/week production by June-July claims from TSLA.

Anyone heard when/if model 3 production restarted after the last production shutdown?

The number does not include Canadian sales. From the InsideEVs article on the matter:

“Lastly, Tesla started delivering some Model 3 in Canada in May too. While we don’t have estimates for Canadian Model 3 sales, we can confidently say that those units upped the total monthly ante by hundreds, if not more.”

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-may-2018-u-s/

 

[SageBrush]

Re Production rates now and in near future.
I don't know how monthly production is estimated for May with Tesla reporting quarterly but any attempt to extrapolate for June should take time offline into account.

E.g., say
April US production was 6500
Canada was 2000
One week line down for upgrades

Then April weekly production is ~ 0.25 * 8500/0.75 = 2833

 

[scottf200]

Estimated 6,250 M3 sales in USA in May:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-may-2018-u-s/
...

Check out the numbers relative to the top 8.

 

[edatoakrun]

Estimated 6,250 M3 sales in USA in May:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-may-2018-u-s/
...

Check out the numbers relative to the top 8.

TSLA's financial plight is that its long-hoped-for stability is now dependent on much higher levels of model 3 production.

As you posted recently:

Re: Best analysis of Model 3 to date (German) - per Elon M tweet so that would lead one to believe it is reasonably accurate....

ELECTRIC CAR DISASSEMBLEDTesla Model 3 can throw off profits

... "If Tesla manages to build the planned 10,000 pieces a week, the Model 3 will deliver a significant positive contribution to earnings," says a test engineer...

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wiwo.de%2Ftechnologie%2Fmobilitaet%2Felektroauto-zerlegt-tesla-model-3-kann-gewinn-abwerfen%2F22625806.html&edit-text=&act=url

And TSLA's fremont factory already appears to be straining to operate at the present much lower production levels:

Tesla workers say factory paint shop has had multiple fires, causing more problems than Tesla let on

Tesla has had at least four fires in the paint shop at its Fremont, California, factory since 2014, according to five people familiar with operations at that plant.

One previously reported fire, in April, was serious enough to stop Model 3 production for multiple shifts that week, these people said. Another fire took place in January 2016 and caused at least a day of suspended vehicle production. Both fires damaged expensive equipment.

These people blamed the fires in part on improper cleaning, maintenance and insufficient training for new employees in the face of high pressure to meet production goals...

Paint shop issues are still hampering Tesla's progress with Model 3 production, according to current employees and other people familiar with Tesla's paint shop. They requested anonymity because they have not been authorized to speak to the media...

The week of the fire, according to two employees and two other people familiar with Tesla's Fremont factory, Musk showed up to assess damage to the paint shop. The fire had burnt an entire zone dedicated to painting Model 3s.

Rather than suspending operations immediately, Musk and others encouraged teams to fix what they could and push through.

Some Model 3 parts, including B-pillars and chassis components, which had been in the paint shop at the time, were moved into a containment area, visually inspected and put back into production, rather than being scrapped or further tested for damages, employees said.

Tesla emphasized that no damaged parts were used in new vehicle production...

Two Tesla employees say that vehicle production goals have been the highest priority in recent months, sometimes at the expense of fire and environmental considerations. They said, for example, that months before the April fire, the sprinkler heads were clogged and coated at least an inch thick of paint and clear-coat. Filters below the paint booths and exhaust systems that clean and carry air into and out of the building were also visibly coated, they added.

A former paint shop employee said associates there are given minimal training — just what they need to meet OSHA safety requirements — before they are put to work on jobs that need more specialized skills. The result is that while Tesla has invested in state-of-the-art equipment, these inexperienced employees don't follow best practices. The result: botched jobs and a potentially unsafe environment, according to the former employee, who spoke on condition of anonymity...

On a tense earnings call in May, Musk plainly acknowledged that the paint shop at Tesla's Fremont factory poses a risk to mass-production of the Model 3 electric sedan.

The CEO said: "General assembly is probably our biggest risk, and I'm refocusing personally on that a lot in the next — in the coming month. And then our paint shop is maybe the second biggest risk after general assembly."..

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/tesla-factory-paint-shop-fires-worse-than-revealed-workers.html

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

TSLA's financial plight is that its long-hoped-for stability is now dependent on much higher levels of model 3 production.

...

And TSLA's fremont factory already appears to be straining to operate at the present much lower production levels:


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/tesla-factory-paint-shop-fires-worse-than-revealed-workers.html

Oh, you must be so excited to see a month old issue re-hashed and regurgitated at a time when model 3 production is ramping up just as was foretold by Tesla.

I suggest you research about a small Canadian insurance company called "Fairfax". It was the subject of an unsuccessful bear-raid in the early 2000's. You'll see parallels to what you're so convinced of is wrong with Tesla. You might want to reconsider where your prejudices lie.

Here's a reference if you're willing to check it out: https://dbarphconsulting.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/how-to-survive-a-bear-raid/
and also: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2777638/ (the actual report is an attachment in that post)

We're in the middle of a bear-raid and you're a pawn (unwittingly perhaps?).

Edit: If it wasn't clear, that cnbc report was full of hearsay and innuendo - zero substantiated source material.

 

[SageBrush]

TSLA's financial plight is that its long-hoped-for stability is now dependent on much higher levels of model 3 production.

No, troll.

At 5k a week Tesla is stable and producing the Model 3 SR
At 10k a week Tesla is awash in profits

I figure you have 6 months before your shorts put you in a homeless shelter. You should start thinking about where your internet access will come from.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Sat in one at the Tesla store, had a nice feel. Once the crowd dies down I expect I'll be ordering one. Timing should dovetail nicely with the less expensive versions being available and them getting the kinks worked out.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

TSLA's financial plight is that its long-hoped-for stability is now dependent on much higher levels of model 3 production.

No, troll.

At 5k a week Tesla is stable and producing the Model 3 SR
At 10k a week Tesla is awash in profits

I figure you have 6 months before your shorts put you in a homeless shelter. You should start thinking about where your internet access will come from.

Does the obamaphone have unlimited 4g data?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Better yet, Starbucks... I hear they are all being converted to homeless shelters with free WiFi.

 

[SageBrush]

Does the obamaphone have unlimited 4g data?

No, but the trumphone does. Needed for pedophilia and late night pornography between tweet storms

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Regardless of who has access to what code, etc, am I the only one surprised that an issue with the operation of the brakes could be identified, updated and sent out to the field in 1 week? That just seems like it wouldn't leave much time for testing and all that stuff....

You might want to read and comment on the article below:

Tesla's Rapid Braking Software Update Is Great, But Hides More Fundamental Problems
https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2018/05/30/rapid-tesla-software-updates-are-great-but-hide-more-fundamental-problems/#74b2834e57de

http://autoweek.com/article/technology/musk-doesnt-get-it-why-teslas-attitude-toward-over-air-updates-critical-vehicle

These articles nail it. Tesla releases updates more regular than Apple does. For a phone, which if even bricked won't actually cost anybody any harm.

That Tesla can release a 20 foot patch so quickly is extremely alarming. Do they not test brakes themselves? How were they not aware that under conventional brake testing their car was doing so badly?

They release OTA updates on the model 3 constantly, with mere days between them. There is concern recently that one update has decreased the 0-60 time. Lots of people noticing a loss of jolt when they floor the car. I believe that the regular update process they are doing with what is clearly an insufficient amount of testing could one day lead to an oh-sh*t type release, the kind that costs lives. It could be something like autopilot sees something up ahead and overcompensates by aggressively side swiping another car. Tesla's agility with OTA is both a blessing and a curse. It is fire, and they play with it, and they may get burned. These are two ton vehicles going at 70 mph. They need to be exceptionally diligent with testing and controls.

 

[lpickup]

Estimated 6,250 M3 sales in USA in May:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-may-2018-u-s/

Quite a bit short of most recent 5k/week- 6k/week production by June-July claims from TSLA.

Anyone heard when/if model 3 production restarted after the last production shutdown?

I didn't see that coming: Ed not understanding the difference between production and sales, particularly in light of what appears to be an attempt to divert sales to Canada and delay deliveries into 3Q to avoid the 200K tax credit milestone.

As I've said before, June's numbers will probably look even worse, as will Tesla's official 2Q numbers when released in early July and I'm sure the likes of Ed will chime in to tell us all about the "huge miss".

My own estimate for May was 5,982, so I probably slightly overestimated the number of Canadian deliveries.

For June, my estimates are as follows. My estimates are "conservative" in that I am estimating high on the production side for the purposes of determining whether 200K will be crossed in June or July, so assuming "best case" production numbers to see what it would take to defer until 3Q. I am estimating 6K/week during the last week of June, but realistically they will probably only be at 5K.

Production (not sales Ed, there is a difference): 21,000
Delivery pipeline lagged potential sales: 16,500
Diversions to Canada: 4,300
Shipments to US delivery centers but not sold until July 1: 9,000
Net actual June sales: 3,200

End of June "cars in transit" ready to be sold on July 1: 12,000 (higher than the 9,000 which represents the cars built in June, but an additional 3,000 cars built in May are in this group)

If we assume a 5K/week build rate for the last week of June and throughout July, the total number of cars sold in July should be in the neighborhood of 30-31,000 (counting the 12,000 "in transit")

Sure, this number is not sustainable due to the temporary stockpile, but August & September should be able to sustain a 20K/month rate. That's a nice 70K quarter! For comparison, TOTAL 4Q17 US EV sales (BEV + PHEV combined) was 57,600.

 

[scottf200]

They release OTA updates on the model 3 constantly, with mere days between them.

You have no clue what you are talking about and not using any facts or reasoning.

Days? The major firmware numbers have the week of the year in them: 2017.48, 50; 2018.04, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20

The issue was with emergency braking on several surfaces not everyday braking. Others testing emergency braking with reasonable results before that. Most Model 3 users were saying they had no issues with the braking at all and called it quite good. See the CR videos.

 

[leafkabob]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, I'm loving my model 3. This is a fantastic car. In two weeks I'll be taking it on a road trip to Wisconsin and back. 3,400 miles round trip. I don't expect to be too concerned with how many cars are produced per week or how quickly OTA updates are pushed out.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, I'm loving my model 3. This is a fantastic car. In two weeks I'll be taking it on a road trip to Wisconsin and back. 3,400 miles round trip. I don't expect to be too concerned with how many cars are produced per week or how quickly OTA updates are pushed out.

Dropping in to a SC at a lower SOC 7-20 will give you a much higher charge rate and not sharing a stall 1A/!B will give you a much higher Kw charge- FYI

 

[leafkabob]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, I'm loving my model 3. This is a fantastic car. In two weeks I'll be taking it on a road trip to Wisconsin and back. 3,400 miles round trip. I don't expect to be too concerned with how many cars are produced per week or how quickly OTA updates are pushed out.

Dropping in to a SC at a lower SOC 7-20 will give you a much higher charge rate and not sharing a stall 1A/!B will give you a much higher Kw charge- FYI

Thanks for the tip. That is what I found out when I took my first trip from Phoenix to Vegas.

I'm planning on following (at least initially) the Tesla trip planner found on their web page. https://www.tesla.com/trips

But I reckon by the end of the trip I will have nailed it as far as knowing the optimal times to charge.

Driving my model 3 reminds me of my first days in my Leaf. Back then I looked at other ICE drivers and thought "If you guys could just drive this car, you would want one." I feel exactly the same about the 3 now, except I would now revise that to "when I look at other EV and ICE drivers." (Tesla S and X drivers excluded, of course).