Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[edatoakrun]

...Did all those people know the car doesn't have a radio?

IMO, the sticker shock that will hit when the actual cost of ownership for the "$35k" model 3 is calculated, will be a much bigger problem for TSLA in closing sales than the 3s radio reception...

The Tesla Model 3 Most People Want Will Cost $890 A Month

Ben Sullins of Telsanomics has a good thing going on. A few weeks ago, he put up an online cost estimator that allowed people to see how much the Tesla Model 3 equipped the way they want it will cost. Incredibly, more than 100,000 people used the calculator, which provided Sullins with lots of valuable data. Sifting through the numbers, several trends became clear...

Sullins added up all the numbers, estimated the cost of electricity for a month of driving, assumed a $5,000 down payment and a loan at 4.5%, added $120 a month for insurance and came up with a total cost for a Model 3 equipped the way most drivers like it of $890 a month. Watch the video for more details...

https://gas2.org/2017/09/27/tesla-model-3-people-want-will-cost-890-month/

 

[webb14leafs]

IMO, the sticker shock that will hit when the actual cost of ownership for the "$35k" Model 3 is calculated, will be a much bigger problem for TSLA in closing sales than the 3s radio reception...

Not if you're considering it vs. a BMW, Audi or mercedes.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Looking at what's going on on PR makes me think reception capability for terrestrial broadcasting should be a requirement. IP networks are too delicate to rely on in disaster situations.

 

[SageBrush]

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Collecting that first $1k may turn out to have been a lot easier than then keeping it, and also collecting the remaining $40 to $80k per model 3 delivered...

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting the company?

I'd say the reverse: he shorted TSLA and now spends his days trolling the company

 

[hyperionmark]

Collecting that first $1k may turn out to have been a lot easier than then keeping it, and also collecting the remaining $40 to $80k per model 3 delivered...

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting the company?

I'd say the reverse: he shorted TSLA and now spends his days trolling the company

I suppose that is one way to make a living. You could argue with the ethics of it, but at least he is putting his own money on it.

 

[lorenfb]

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Collecting that first $1k may turn out to have been a lot easier than then keeping it, and also collecting the remaining $40 to $80k per model 3 delivered...

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting the company?

Most wise traders don't short a stock, e.g. TSLA, when its shareholders are irrational investors!

 

[GRA]

Serial #454 has been picked up by its owner, so at least that many: https://www.instagram.com/p/BZlwpn-A3iz/?taken-by=colindough

 

[jlv]

Someone I work with just sat in the first 3 delivered in MA. The owner's son works for SpaceX and gave the slot to his father, so technically this is still an employee delivery.

 

[keydiver]

Looking at what's going on on PR makes me think reception capability for terrestrial broadcasting should be a requirement. IP networks are too delicate to rely on in disaster situations.

Not being a sports fan, I couldn't care less about the lack of AM radio causing me to miss a baseball game, and I have used the FM radio in my Model S maybe once in 2 years. However, having just evacuated from a hurricane, I do worry that the emergency radio stations in the US seem to be primarily AM-based. The signs along the FL Turnpike all advised that I tune to 1620AM, or something like that, for emergency information. Some have mentioned that most AM stations are also available through streaming services, which *should* work fine for emergencies, as long as the cell service is still operational, although most games are blacked out.
Also, I am SURE that the USB port will allow you to play your mp3 files. That has always been a standard Tesla feature. People just need to be patient and wait for the first PUBLIC deliveries.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

All the world loves IP networks. The reality is few understand anything about all the infrastructure it takes to actually make broadband and mobile data networks work, but they sure know how to complain when they fail, assuming it's something that should be as reliable as gravity.

 

[edatoakrun]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Collecting that first $1k may turn out to have been a lot easier than then keeping it, and also collecting the remaining $40 to $80k per model 3 delivered...

In the first ~three month of "production", ~20 model 3s produced per week.

On the bright side, TSLA has close to 500 years worth of deposits, at that production rate...

In the next three months, production ramping up to ~5,000 per week?

Tesla Inc.’s Model 3 rollout didn’t start at ludicrous speed.

The electric-car maker said Monday that it produced 260 Model 3 sedans and delivered 220 of the cars in the third quarter, after holding a launch event for the car at the end of July that included the delivery of the first few cars to employees. Chief Executive Elon Musk has said that he expected Tesla TSLA, -1.62% to produce 100 Model 3 cars in August and ramp up to 1,500 in September, with plans to produce 5,000 Model 3 cars a week by the end of the year...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-model-3-hit-by-production-bottleneck-that-slowed-initial-deliveries-2017-10-02

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Doesn't seem to have hurt the stock. I think customers and investors are glad to see they are taking the time to do this right.

 

[cwerdna]

Doesn't seem to have hurt the stock. I think customers and investors are glad to see they are taking the time to do this right.

Yeah, not down much after hours. Right now, it's down $5.52 or 1.62%. As was stated earlier, it seems many investors in TSLA are irrational.

Some other stocks w/crazy valuations and w/a company w/no profits if they were in this boat could see their stock cut by a 1/3 or in half from something like this.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

It does seem that Tesla has a harder time building cars than others. Probably because the others are just assembling components, not that Tesla doesn't have suppliers too but they are engineering and building a lot more content themselves (or so it appears to me)

 

[lpickup]

On the bright side, TSLA has close to 500 years worth of deposits, at that production rate...

Yes, because of course it is perfectly acceptable to extrapolate the initial few months of a new vehicle's manufacture out indefinitely...

Not that it matters much to me. With Musk's initial goal (which was clearly done to build hype) I had them crossing 200K in early to mid-February '18, which would put them in a position of either not maximizing the full federal tax credit, or having to stockpile inventory...either scenario I'm sure you'd find some reason to complain about endlessly. If you think that 6-12 months after the fact a slower than hyped ramp is really going to matter, when the rest of the industry is still years behind...

A delay now to get their factory "machine" working smoothly will basically translate into hitting 200K in early April '18 which is the ideal scenario for maximizing the US federal tax credit, and probably being able to sell quite a few dual motor variants under the full tax credit. Plus it will align them one quarter closer to GM's phase out such that there will be only one quarter difference between Tesla & GM.

 

[lorenfb]

A delay now to get their factory "machine" working smoothly will basically translate into hitting 200K in early April '18 which is the ideal scenario for maximizing the US federal tax credit, and probably being able to sell quite a few dual motor variants under the full tax credit. Plus it will align them one quarter closer to GM's phase out such that there will be only one quarter difference between Tesla & GM.

Did catch you falling asleep and dreaming?

 

[Nubo]

Collecting that first $1k may turn out to have been a lot easier than then keeping it, and also collecting the remaining $40 to $80k per model 3 delivered...

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting the company?

Most wise traders don't short a stock, e.g. TSLA, when its shareholders are irrational investors!

TSLA was something like 67% of shares outstanding, iirc, prior to the Model S launch. The car was exceptionally well-received and the short-squeeze was phenomenal.

 

[Nubo]

Yes I understand that it hasn't been enabled yet. But word is that bluetooth and FM are right around the corner. I think they are figuring USB and AM are old tech. This car is about looking forward.

Leaving out a feature because of cost is one thing, but an AM tuning circuit is pennies. Leaving it out because of tech-snobbery is silly pandering to tech snobs that might be offended by the very *existence* of AM radio in their vehicle. Personally I couldn't care less about XM radio but some people love it. If they want to pay for friggin' radio be my guest.

And get off my lawn! :evil: :lol:

 

[lorenfb]

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting the company?

Most wise traders don't short a stock, e.g. TSLA, when its shareholders are irrational investors!

TSLA was something like 67% of shares outstanding, iirc, prior to the Model S launch. The car was exceptionally well-received and the short-squeeze was phenomenal.

So, that's old history!
The bottom line now is:
1. Can they produce the M3 at the volumes projected and in the expected time frame?
2. Will they be profitable at ASPs less than $45K?
3. Will they cannibalize MS sales and lose more money?

The next six months is when "the rubber hits the road"!

 

[cwerdna]

Looking at what's going on on PR makes me think reception capability for terrestrial broadcasting should be a requirement. IP networks are too delicate to rely on in disaster situations.

Not being a sports fan, I couldn't care less about the lack of AM radio causing me to miss a baseball game, and I have used the FM radio in my Model S maybe once in 2 years. However, having just evacuated from a hurricane, I do worry that the emergency radio stations in the US seem to be primarily AM-based. The signs along the FL Turnpike all advised that I tune to 1620AM, or something like that, for emergency information. Some have mentioned that most AM stations are also available through streaming services, which *should* work fine for emergencies, as long as the cell service is still operational, although most games are blacked out.

Thanks for the reminder about other purposes of AM radio. I have seen signs on CA highways about tuning to some station on the AM band for highway info and I definitely remember using them.

http://www.dot.ca.gov/paffairs/pr/2017/prs/17pr005.html says

For the latest road condition information, the radio may be tuned to the Caltrans Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) at 530 AM, 1610 AM or 1670 AM or call the Caltrans Road Condition Hotline at 1-800-427-ROAD (7623). Real time conditions are also available online and for mobile phones at Caltrans QuickMap.

I wouldn't want to be doing much w/my phone while driving on the highway.

As for AM, I actually use it somewhat regularly in my Leaf, sometimes as often as a few times a week, mainly to listen to radio news and sometimes traffic conditions. I couldn't care less about baseball as I don't watch or listen to any of that.

As for FM, I actually use that less than AM radio... maybe a few times in a month?

Besides the above, most of my listening in my car is podcasts (well, I only listen to the TWiT podcast now, which is once a week and the ep is usually 1.5 to 2.5 hours long), NPR app, YouTube playing a show (only listening to the audio) via headphone jack from another phone, XM Sirius radio, music stored locally on my iPhone 6, Spotify, Pandora (not much).

The BMW i3 is another car where the AM radio was omitted. Well, the hardware's but not enabled. I've gotten conflicting reports as to whether the crippled radio when enabled is listenable while being driven, due to interference. Stationary, I hear it works ok.