Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[LTLFTcomposite]

^ That was the point I was getting at. At some point they need to start cranking these things out in large quantities, and they'd better be reliable or it will be the death of them. They can better afford to have a few more weeks delay or even months than they can to have massive problems in the field.

 

[edatoakrun]

...In the long run, none of this matters. The X had that long, drawn out roll-out, but does that matter anymore at this point? You can just go out and buy one (assuming you have that much cash to burn).

As my wife likes to say: by the time your kid is 4, it doesn't matter if they took their first step at 8 months or 16 months.

Your cash burn situation is not relevant. but TSLA's is.

When your kid took their first step would be much more important, if their future food supply depended on it...

TSLA probably needs to sell several hundreds thousands of model 3s next year, to limit its losses to levels low enough that investors will continue to subsidize operations with further purchases of debt or equity.

The real test is when deliveries can reach those levels.

The latest prediction, is only a few months away:

Musk: Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

When your kid took their first step would be much more important, if their future food supply depended on it...

There certainly are species where that's the case; you get pushed out of the nest and mom and dad move on leaving you to either make it on your own or die. At the other end of the spectrum is the 40 year old kid living in the basement. That kid may be starting a business on the way to being a billionaire or just playing Xbox and the parents are enablers. I suspect investors could keep this going through quite a long period of slow delivery rates as long as they think it's still headed in the right direction.

 

[Zythryn]

...In the long run, none of this matters. The X had that long, drawn out roll-out, but does that matter anymore at this point? You can just go out and buy one (assuming you have that much cash to burn).

As my wife likes to say: by the time your kid is 4, it doesn't matter if they took their first step at 8 months or 16 months.

Your cash burn situation is not relevant. but TSLA's is.

When your kid took their first step would be much more important, if their future food supply depended on it...

TSLA probably needs to sell several hundreds thousands of model 3s next year, to limit its losses to levels low enough that investors will continue to subsidize operations with further purchases of debt or equity.

The real test is when deliveries can reach those levels.

The latest prediction, is only a few months away:

Musk: Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec

Please note, the above goal is not the same as your yardstick. Musk did not (AFAIK) stated 20,000 a month is the level at which Tesla will reach "those levels".
I suspect, as long as they reach half that goal, investors will stick with them for the most part. The direction and how far off 'end of the tunnel' is will play a large part in how patient the majority of investors are.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

From the Bernstein Bears... as noted they need to get it right, even at the expense of getting it fast

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-model-3-fail-could-lead-to-moment-of-panic-for-tesla-bernstein-2017-09-27

Investors “will continue to supply liquidity and overlook Tesla’s cash burn, just as they historically did” with Wal-Mart and Home Depot

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

Tesla Model 3 currently has no FM radio and no bluetooth streaming
And you use the touchscreen for everything — even the windshield wipers

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/27/tesla-model-3-no-fm-radio-no-bluetooth-streaming/

. . . One item sure to generate controversy is the complete lack of a radio. At present, the Tesla Model 3 has no FM radio (AM is completely unsupported), and no streaming of music through a phone or any other electronic device. The only way to play music in the Model 3, at least for now, is to use a third-party streaming service over the car's 4G internet connection. In the end, this won't be too big of an issue, as an over-the-air update is planned that will enable FM radio and bluetooth streaming, and it's thought to be coming very soon.

It's also interesting to see just how many critical functions the touchscreen is used to control. For instance, there are no manual air vent controls. Instead, a sub-menu has to be entered to change the direction and speed or air flow. The windshield wiper controls, too, can only be adjusted through the touchscreen. Everything from the climate controls to the audio volume is adjusted through this one large screen, though there are two buttons on the steering wheel that can be customized as the owner sees fit.

While the lack of buttons and gauges certainly makes for a clean-looking interior, we're not so sure it's the best option for usability. Watch the videos above and below, and feel free to let us know what you think.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

It's like manufacturers have a death wish for their EV offerings over the stupidest things. Aptera figured the windows didn't need to roll down, Chevy said hey let's make the seats like park benches, now Tesla is betting their future on a car that options out at over $50k with no radio.

Please stop it. Just stop it.

 

[edatoakrun]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Midsize U.S. Sedan Demand Stalls Out to Lowest on Record

...Only about one in 10 new cars sold in the U.S. is a midsize sedan, a sharp decline for the best-selling vehicle segment in 20 of the last 27 years, according to data from car-shopping website Edmunds. Models like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord -- both of which were redesigned this year to counteract the slump -- have slipped to the fifth most popular segment, behind compact SUVs, large trucks, midsize SUVs and compact cars. The trend is unlikely to reverse even if gas prices rise, as nearly a quarter of midsize sedan owners are choosing small SUVs when trading in their wheels. “Once someone gets used to the higher ride, extra space and creature comforts they can get in an SUV, it’s almost a fool’s errand to convince them to go back to a sedan,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-27/midsize-u-s-sedan-demand-stalls-out-to-lowest-on-record

 

[hyperionmark]

Tesla is betting their future on a car that options out at over $50k with no radio.

You know this isn't accurate on many levels.

 

[hyperionmark]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

 

[Durandal]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Those aren't real people! They're people like me, who put down $1,000 on the first day, then I canceled my reservation, and bought a used Leaf... Then 4 months later got a reservation again, because after driving my Leaf, decided I would never buy another ICE vehicle again. Then just a month ago, got a 2nd reservation so that my wife wouldn't buy another ICE vehicle again.... Just imaginary people like me. :lol:

In other news, Tesla will address that growing market, the CUV, with the Model Y which is to come out in 2019. In any event, Tesla is consistently supply constrained, not demand constrained, so the size of the market really is moot as long as there are more buyers than there are cars.

 

[edatoakrun]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Collecting that first $1k may turn out to have been a lot easier than then keeping it, and also collecting the remaining $40 to $80k per model 3 delivered...

 

[hyperionmark]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Collecting that first $1k may turn out to have been a lot easier than then keeping it, and also collecting the remaining $40 to $80k per model 3 delivered...

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting the company?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Did all those people know the car doesn't have a radio?

 

[lpickup]

The primary blunder in the model 3 roll out, IMO, is in planning on introducing TSLA's first mass-market BEV in a market segment with rapidly declining mass.

Umm...500k people that put down $1k would disagree with you.

Did all those people know the car doesn't have a radio?

I think it's well understood that at least by the time the vast majority of those people get the car, that it will have at least an FM radio (not defending the fact that Tesla failed to have such a basic feature ready at release, but I'm sure it won't be long in coming). AM is another story, but lack of AM radio is becoming de facto in new cars anyway.

Having said that, I suspect quite a few of those people really don't care for radio either way, provided streaming is available (another feature that is "coming soon" if you mean from your own device), since that is becoming the prevalent means of playing music anyway.

 

[jlv]

Tesla is betting their future on a car that options out at over $50k with no radio.

You know this isn't accurate on many levels.

FM isn't enabled yet. It apparently will be coming in a future firmware update (OTA for cars already delivered).

The 3 does lack an AM radio. The specs also do not mention the ability to play media via a USB port
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/media-mistake-false-no-fm-bluetooth-or-usb-audio-either.98788/


I use a 32GB flash drive all the time in my LEAF (and just deal with the slow and horrible interface). I rarely use Spotify via BT. The funny thing is that I've yet had the desire to use USB media in the Tesla. Between the built-in Slack and Tune-in, and using Spotify via BT, I've just never felt I needed to use plug-in media, even when taking long trips (like the 8hr one from VA->MA I just did).

 

[hyperionmark]

Yes I understand that it hasn't been enabled yet. But word is that bluetooth and FM are right around the corner. I think they are figuring USB and AM are old tech. This car is about looking forward.

Also, keep in mind that tune-in radio streaming is available.

 

[EVDRIVER]

It's funny to see all the nit picking on the Model 3. Tesla will certainly have the ability in all their cars to listen to radio by one means or another without a secondary device. In the end regardless of issues, unless the car is really bad with unfixable bugs or the company is in trouble it will likely outsell all EVs for some time by a large margin.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

AM is another story, but lack of AM radio is becoming de facto in new cars anyway.

That cuts out a lot of sports talk. How will we get in-depth analysis of who's kneeling for the national anthem?

 

[hyperionmark]

It's funny to see all the nit picking on the Model 3. Tesla will certainly have the ability in all their cars to listen to radio by one means or another without a secondary device. In the end regardless of issues, unless the car is really bad with unfixable bugs or the company is in trouble it will likely outsell all EVs for some time by a large margin.

Well said