lorenfb said:
1. You're focusing on gross profit and NOT the GAPP bottom line profit which has been the ongoing issue for Tesla.
2. Your assumption that the $45K - $50K demand is represented by most all the reservations.
3. It's still questionable whether Tesla can deliver the M3 at $35K even in late 2018 and have just a positive gross profit,
irrespective of a positive GAPP.
I'm focusing on what YOU said. I guess once again, you've decided to change your story once it's been shown that your thesis doesn't hold water.
I'm not assuming that the LR/PUP model demand is anything. My response covers the continuum from all reservations are for LR/PUP to none are and how Tesla will shift production at an appropriate time when the demand crosses over from LR/PUP to base model, but likely not before.
Your #3 comment is the only one that makes sense, and it's a fair question. If that's your concern then, why did you not mention that once? And if you have inside information regarding the profitability or lack thereof, please share it. Otherwise you're just speculating. And hey, I get that when you're used to evaluating traditional established carmaker, Tesla may seem completely foreign. GM, BMW, VW, etc. aren't building the company from scratch. They haven't grown from 0 to hundreds of thousands of cars in a single decade. To do that takes a capital which a small company like Tesla 10 years ago didn't have. That doesn't mean it's not an opportunity. Just because they don't have 15 other models generating revenue to fund development of the Model 3 doesn't necessarily mean that they can't turn that enormous investment into a valuable company.
YOU are focused too much on past results, which no surprise, do not reflect a nice consistent profit and dividend. That's simply because that's not the stage of life the Tesla company is at right now. They are growing at an extraordinary rate. What you should be looking at is whether there is something that is fundamentally preventing them from EVENTUALLY turning a healthy profit on their cars, and especially the Model 3. And nothing I've seen you say has convinced me of that. You seem uber focused on what car it's positioned against and losing sight of the fact that there is more genuine hype and demand for this car than probably any in history, and technically it blows everything else away. Yes, they are ramping up more slowly than anyone would like. But if there are any true competitors out there to the Model 3 when you look at the whole package (price, features, performance, looks, capability, charging networks) that have such a rabid following, I'm just not seeing it. Yes, the delay is shortening the lead that Tesla has (assuming the competition is really serious about rolling out their vehicles in 2020), but they still have quite the lead, and guess what: they are not standing still.
I think I've said enough. You won't be bothered to read it, and you'll just change your story to some other unjustified complaint anyway.