Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[dgpcolorado]

There has been a push to release the AWD versions sooner because many orders have been diverted to AWD and there is strong demand.

Makes sense. However I expect that AWD will be bundled with other expensive options that could make the price rather high; if so, that might dampen demand for that option somewhat. I'll be interested to see how Tesla handles it.

I thought I would want AWD awhile back but I have found that RWD plus good snow tires and modern traction control makes for a very capable snow car, so I no longer have much interest in it. AWD figures to have slightly better handling and efficiency — with some increase in drive train noise, based on reports from dual drive S owners — but those improvements figure to be too small to be worth the cost IMO.

 

[scottf200]

There has been a push to release the AWD versions sooner because many orders have been diverted to AWD and there is strong demand.

I think this is what you get when you put your Model 3 on hold and corresponds with the feedback/demand you mention.

 

[EVDRIVER]

There has been a push to release the AWD versions sooner because many orders have been diverted to AWD and there is strong demand.

Makes sense. However I expect that AWD will be bundled with other expensive options that could make the price rather high; if so, that might dampen demand for that option somewhat. I'll be interested to see how Tesla handles it.

I thought I would want AWD awhile back but I have found that RWD plus good snow tires and modern traction control makes for a very capable snow car, so I no longer have much interest in it. AWD figures to have slightly better handling and efficiency — with some increase in drive train noise, based on reports from dual drive S owners — but those improvements figure to be too small to be worth the cost IMO.

They have not done this on other cars for AWD so I would not expect it. Also AWD is standard on all S cars now. The difference in traction with AWD in an electric drive is pretty amazing. I once tried to lose traction on a muddy clay road and ended up launching like I was on pavement. There is no way I would not have it if I lived in snow country. I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road. The driving differences are dramatic on an S vs AWD S. As mentioned before I expect the new AWD 3 to have an induction motor up front and the same PB in back with a smaller in inverter in the read. I do not expect efficiency gains and perhaps a slight hit of about 5 miles because of the architecture. Total output will be slightly higher.

 

[tattoogunman]

There has been a push to release the AWD versions sooner because many orders have been diverted to AWD and there is strong demand.

Makes sense. However I expect that AWD will be bundled with other expensive options that could make the price rather high; if so, that might dampen demand for that option somewhat. I'll be interested to see how Tesla handles it.

I thought I would want AWD awhile back but I have found that RWD plus good snow tires and modern traction control makes for a very capable snow car, so I no longer have much interest in it. AWD figures to have slightly better handling and efficiency — with some increase in drive train noise, based on reports from dual drive S owners — but those improvements figure to be too small to be worth the cost IMO.

Given the typical Tesla owner (in my experience) has no problem paying a premium price for the cars, I don't think cost is really going to deter many people. Even the "affordable" Model 3 that is now being delivered to their owners are costing $50K - $60K. Now don't get me wrong, I understand in today's climates, most people do not seem to want true base model cars anymore, but most cars don't cost $20K to $30K more in their top trip level when compared to their base trim price.

Tesla has somehow managed to create a rabid and fanatical demand for its products similar to Apple and for those interested, price really doesn't seem to be an issue. I was at an EV event a few months back and I was talking to several Tesla owners. All of them owned both a Model S and a Model X and all of them had ordered a Model 3 "just because". I've never talked to anyone who consistently goes out buying the new model of any brand to add to their collection "just because", so again, I really don't think the typical Model 3 purchaser is going to be that concerned about price. If someone is truly on a budget, I would think they are probably not seriously considering a Tesla anyway, but that's just my opinion. For people like me, even the so called "affordable" base model at $35K is way more than I can afford and that goes for the Leaf as well.

 

[lpickup]

I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road.

Jeez, while I'm sure it CAN do that, wouldn't it be more advisable to just slow down in the rain?

 

[lpickup]

Given the typical Tesla owner (in my experience) has no problem paying a premium price for the cars, I don't think cost is really going to deter many people.

I'll disagree a bit here. I think your "selection bias" is that you talked to current Tesla Model S and X owners. But they don't account for all 400-500K reservation holders. I think more than quite a few of those are in fact sensitive to the cost and are waiting for the base model. I do agree that there are still plenty of people that are aspiring for the $50K model as well, but there is a continuum of people out there that are willing to buy multiple Teslas all the way down to those that $35K is going to be a stretch, but they will probably go for it anyway (I suspect a lot of Model S buyers had to stretch as well).

 

[EVDRIVER]

I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road.

Jeez, while I'm sure it CAN do that, wouldn't it be more advisable to just slow down in the rain?

Yes, these were low speed tests done on closed roads in a controlled environment to test traction control.

 

[lpickup]

I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road.

Jeez, while I'm sure it CAN do that, wouldn't it be more advisable to just slow down in the rain?

Yes, these were low speed tests done on closed roads in a controlled environment to test traction control.

Fair enough, my point being though that if you are not planning on gunning it going around corners in the rain, RWD might be sufficient for many drivers.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Jeez, while I'm sure it CAN do that, wouldn't it be more advisable to just slow down in the rain?

Yes, these were low speed tests done on closed roads in a controlled environment to test traction control.

Fair enough, my point being though that if you are not planning on gunning it going around corners in the rain, RWD might be sufficient for many drivers.

That is not the point. It's not about gunning it simply illustrates the level of traction control because of the extremely high response rate of the two electric motors over mechanical systems. If you live in or go to the snow often the AWD is worth every penny. In addition if will afford more regen and other benefits. I also expect AWD M3 cars to retain much higher resale values. The added traction is also useful in many other cases.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...They have not done this on other cars for AWD so I would not expect it. Also AWD is standard on all S cars now. The difference in traction with AWD in an electric drive is pretty amazing. I once tried to lose traction on a muddy clay road and ended up launching like I was on pavement. There is no way I would not have it if I lived in snow country. I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road. The driving differences are dramatic on an S vs AWD S. As mentioned before I expect the new AWD 3 to have an induction motor up front and the same PB in back with a smaller in inverter in the read. I do not expect efficiency gains and perhaps a slight hit of about 5 miles because of the architecture. Total output will be slightly higher.

I hope that you are right that Tesla will offer AWD as an option that can be added to pretty much all other versions but I'm guessing otherwise. Since they are trying to simplify production, linking AWD to the LR or PUP or EAP would be a way to reduce the number of variants produced and increase the margin. I'll be surprised if AWD is offered as an option for the SR with no other options required. However, you have inside information and the rest of us don't...

Wouldn't adding an induction motor for the front increase manufacturing complexity? I'll be interested to see if you are right about that. Any guesses as to the AWD option cost?

 

[EVDRIVER]

...They have not done this on other cars for AWD so I would not expect it. Also AWD is standard on all S cars now. The difference in traction with AWD in an electric drive is pretty amazing. I once tried to lose traction on a muddy clay road and ended up launching like I was on pavement. There is no way I would not have it if I lived in snow country. I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road. The driving differences are dramatic on an S vs AWD S. As mentioned before I expect the new AWD 3 to have an induction motor up front and the same PB in back with a smaller in inverter in the read. I do not expect efficiency gains and perhaps a slight hit of about 5 miles because of the architecture. Total output will be slightly higher.

I hope that you are right that Tesla will offer AWD as an option that can be added to pretty much all other versions but I'm guessing otherwise. Since they are trying to simplify production, linking AWD to the LR or PUP or EAP would be a way to reduce the number of variants produced and increase the margin. I'll be surprised if AWD is offered as an option for the SR with no other options required. However, you have inside information and the rest of us don't...

Wouldn't adding an induction motor for the front increase manufacturing complexity? I'll be interested to see if you are right about that. Any guesses as to the AWD option cost?

It is possible that LR may be the one requirements depending on the AWD final output specs. They can put a small induction up front the in the AWD S and it would likely be lower cost than two PMs. No idea of the cost but it has to be less than the S. The Because AWD is in high demand It may be an option for both models, we shall see soon. I am getting the LR among other reasons for the SC speed advantage.

 

[lpickup]

If you live in or go to the snow often the AWD is worth every penny.

I think this is the point you were trying to make.

I'd probably wait until I saw what the price is before making that determination.

I used to live in Vermont and owned a RWD Nissan 240SX (1990), long before active traction control or even ABS. I did put on studded snow tires in the winter, but never really had much of an issue (and I frequently took the car skiing).

So yeah, while AWD would be helpful, I would not make the claim that it is worth every penny before knowing how many pennies we are talking about. If it's too many, I would probably just slow down around those curves!

 

[EVDRIVER]

If you live in or go to the snow often the AWD is worth every penny.

I think this is the point you were trying to make.

I'd probably wait until I saw what the price is before making that determination.

I used to live in Vermont and owned a RWD Nissan 240SX (1990), long before active traction control or even ABS. I did put on studded snow tires in the winter, but never really had much of an issue (and I frequently took the car skiing).

So yeah, while AWD would be helpful, I would not make the claim that it is worth every penny before knowing how many pennies we are talking about. If it's too many, I would probably just slow down around those curves!

Many CA people that have driven the S and SD agree the AWD is worth it-subjective as always. I think it's more than snow as it has man other gains as discussed before, If it's under $3K and in budget I think it's a no brainer. I would still pay more but I now would not own a car without it as there are so many safety advantages plus not need for chains in CA.

 

[lpickup]

If it's under $3K and in budget I think it's a no brainer.

I would agree that under $3K is a no-brainer. I would be incredibly surprised to see anywhere close to that price point though.

 

[GRA]

<snip>
So yeah, while AWD would be helpful, I would not make the claim that it is worth every penny before knowing how many pennies we are talking about. If it's too many, I would probably just slow down around those curves!

Many CA people that have driven the S and SD agree the AWD is worth it-subjective as always. I think it's more than snow as it has man other gains as discussed before, If it's under $3K and in budget I think it's a no brainer. I would still pay more but I now would not own a car without it as there are so many safety advantages plus not need for chains in CA.

It's that point that makes AWD worth say $1.5 to maybe $3k to many Californians, including myself, who do a lot of driving in chain control areas. I've seen a few cars here that weren't AWD that had badges on them indicating they were Without that I benefit wouldn't bother, as AWD isn't going to improve braking traction.

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Strategy Analytics slams user experience of Tesla Model 3

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/20180126-model3.html

In a new user experience evaluation report, Strategy Analytics has slammed the Tesla Model 3, calling the experience “inferior to that of other Tesla systems.”

Author Chris Schreiner said that the 15" touchscreen seems designed for driving use cases that are currently unavailable, resulting in a “suboptimal experience”.

• While simplicity in UI design remains apparent, the smaller screen combining both cluster and infotainment information results in an experience inferior to that of other Tesla systems. . . .

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Oddly, my delivery box options look and read different than those above, and mine shows Feb, Perhaps the next page after that selection? I never got a date option on that page.

Since you are in California I would have expected you to have earlier dates than I received. I was surprised that Tesla didn't slip my Nov to Jan time window (again) when reports of delays in production surfaced last fall. I was even more surprised when they actually hit the window and allowed me to configure earlier this month.

Perhaps the "take rate" on First Production has been low enough, as reservation holders wait for configurations more to their liking, that Tesla has been able to move through the list more quickly than many of us expected. Or, perhaps, there just weren't all that many Model 3 reservations by current USA Tesla owners to begin with.

I took heat for it from a tesla forum but I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort.

I know a woman with a ton of money and she buys clothes all the time and immediately returns them. She just enjoys the buying process but doesn't enjoy the actual follow-through. That's what refundable deposits do.

People who have the option to order and are deferring are not yet cancellations, but I'll be surprised if even half of the original reservationists actually end up buying it.

Your full federal plus state is a true incentive. My state credit is much smaller. You could get a LR PUP model 3 now for $37k or so, that's a killer price for it.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

...They have not done this on other cars for AWD so I would not expect it. Also AWD is standard on all S cars now. The difference in traction with AWD in an electric drive is pretty amazing. I once tried to lose traction on a muddy clay road and ended up launching like I was on pavement. There is no way I would not have it if I lived in snow country. I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road. The driving differences are dramatic on an S vs AWD S. As mentioned before I expect the new AWD 3 to have an induction motor up front and the same PB in back with a smaller in inverter in the read. I do not expect efficiency gains and perhaps a slight hit of about 5 miles because of the architecture. Total output will be slightly higher.

I hope that you are right that Tesla will offer AWD as an option that can be added to pretty much all other versions but I'm guessing otherwise. Since they are trying to simplify production, linking AWD to the LR or PUP or EAP would be a way to reduce the number of variants produced and increase the margin. I'll be surprised if AWD is offered as an option for the SR with no other options required. However, you have inside information and the rest of us don't...

Wouldn't adding an induction motor for the front increase manufacturing complexity? I'll be interested to see if you are right about that. Any guesses as to the AWD option cost?

Whether they add AWD to SR or not I would bet good money they won't mate it to SR until they have at least fully tapped out those willing to pay for the LR premium with it! So assume it costs another $4k or so you're up to low $50's. Put EAP on and it's a $60k car.

 

[EVDRIVER]

...They have not done this on other cars for AWD so I would not expect it. Also AWD is standard on all S cars now. The difference in traction with AWD in an electric drive is pretty amazing. I once tried to lose traction on a muddy clay road and ended up launching like I was on pavement. There is no way I would not have it if I lived in snow country. I have been in P100DL cars in the rain that can take curves at full throttle and hold the road. The driving differences are dramatic on an S vs AWD S. As mentioned before I expect the new AWD 3 to have an induction motor up front and the same PB in back with a smaller in inverter in the read. I do not expect efficiency gains and perhaps a slight hit of about 5 miles because of the architecture. Total output will be slightly higher.

I hope that you are right that Tesla will offer AWD as an option that can be added to pretty much all other versions but I'm guessing otherwise. Since they are trying to simplify production, linking AWD to the LR or PUP or EAP would be a way to reduce the number of variants produced and increase the margin. I'll be surprised if AWD is offered as an option for the SR with no other options required. However, you have inside information and the rest of us don't...

Wouldn't adding an induction motor for the front increase manufacturing complexity? I'll be interested to see if you are right about that. Any guesses as to the AWD option cost?

Whether they add AWD to SR or not I would bet good money they won't mate it to SR until they have at least fully tapped out those willing to pay for the LR premium with it! So assume it costs another $4k or so you're up to low $50's. Put EAP on and it's a $60k car.

Personally I would not get the car without LR and AWD because of the many advantages they both have. If SR worked for me I would still not get it without AWD.

 

[lpickup]

I took heat for it from a tesla forum but I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort..

I'll be surprised if even half of the original reservationists actually end up buying it.

Entirely reasonable assumption.

I'd probably go with about 60-70% of the original reservation holders end up buying it, but at that point we're somewhat splitting hairs. But since the number of original reservations were about 2X what everyone expected, a 50% uptake is actually not bad!

With the amount of data we have now, it really is hard to draw conclusions. Are we seeing deferrals because they are waiting for other options? Are we effectively seeing cancellations because the previous owner group put in their deposits "just because" and don't really need another Tesla at this time? Even once we start getting into the non-owner groups it will be tough to tell because you just don't know if they are waiting for some other option. But I do think that more recent reservation holders are probably a bit more serious about their reservations. And once the backlog does get down to something more manageable and there are more out there on the road the interest level will be sustaining.

But yes, I agree with your initial statement that the massive reservation list will not actually turn into that many sales.