Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[NeilBlanchard]

The front seats are actually very far back from the nose. And that is a solar car, that is nearly able to generate all the energy it needs, while carrying four people. Here's a picture:

So, "weird" is in the eye of the beholder. I see a very efficient design, with amazing abilities.

 

[evnow]

The front seats are actually very far back from the nose. And that is a solar car, that is nearly able to generate all the energy it needs, while carrying four people.

So, "weird" is in the eye of the beholder. I see a very efficient design, with amazing abilities.

If you don't think this is a weird-mobile - then I can understand why you argue for things you do. You are far outside mainstream.

Musk thinks even Prius is a weird-mobile.

 

[NeilBlanchard]

I think making all cars look just like ICE cars is stupid. The design and function should be the most important thing. A car is not an aesthetic choice - it is transportation.

I didn't say I think the STELLA (or the Prius) is a good looking car - but rather I primarily care about how they WORK.

I think the Model S is great looking - except for the faux grill. Dump that, and it would be completely gorgeous.

 

[N952JL]

The car in american's culture is an visual representation of the owner. As a result the car must not only be functional, but also reflect the taste of the owner.

 

[evnow]

A car is not an aesthetic choice - it is transportation.

LOL. You couldn't be more wrong.

May be when you are the dictator of the world you can enforce this.

ps : In general car is a bad choice for transportation. Public transportation is much more efficient.

 

[dgpcolorado]

The car in american's culture is an visual representation of the owner. As a result the car must not only be functional, but also reflect the taste of the owner.

While that stereotype is valid for some, perhaps even most, people, please don't tar us all with the same brush. I care more about a car's utility than its looks and I would venture to guess that I'm not alone in that view.

 

[N952JL]

I agree, not everyone is the same. That is why we have so many different makes, models, and colors to choose from. Remember you can have a Model T in any color as long as it's black.

 

[evnow]

To bring this back on topic - Tesla's target is solely people who care about these things. Tesla will not make a car that Musk thinks is not beautiful. It will be a conventionally "nice looking" car. It will not be a "weird mobile" - as said as much.

In fact, 3 "needs" to be a "sporty, nice looking" car. It needs to be desirable to those who otherwise may buy a low end BMW or Merc or Audi or Lexus. That is Tesla's target market.

"Value" or utilitarian shoppers are not Tesla's primary target market.

 

[epirali]

To bring this back on topic - Tesla's target is solely people who care about these things. Tesla will not make a car that Musk thinks is not beautiful. It will be a conventionally "nice looking" car. It will not be a "weird mobile" - as said as much.

In fact, 3 "needs" to be a "sporty, nice looking" car. It needs to be desirable to those who otherwise may buy a low end BMW or Merc or Audi or Lexus. That is Tesla's target market.

"Value" or utilitarian shoppers are not Tesla's primary target market.

Ok so I quickly looked up the sales figure for the entire BMW 3/4 series cars (all the variants) in the US in 2014. BMW sold around 100K of the entire group of cars. Musk is projecting "a few million cars a year" by 2025. I don't see how Model 3 can achieve an average sales figure of even a 100K cars if they are just going after low end BMW/Audi with the Model 3. That would imply that not only the Model 3 would have to perceptually and actually match the quality of two of the most successful german car makers in a short period of time, it would then have to take over almost half of their market share almost immediately. This would give it maybe a sales figure of 1 million in ten years after launch. I personally don't even thing the Model S can compete in interior detail to an A4, much less the much much cheaper upcoming Model 3 (if it did what would that do to the current Model S?)

This just doesn't seem likely unless the Model 3 has a much wider target audience. It has to go more after the markets of Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic (250K+ a year for each car).

 

[Zythryn]

Ok so I quickly looked up the sales figure for the entire BMW 3/4 series cars (all the variants) in the US in 2014. BMW sold around 100K of the entire group of cars. Musk is projecting "a few million cars a year" by 2025. I don't see how Model 3 can achieve an average sales figure of even a 100K cars if they are just going after low end BMW/Audi with the Model 3. That would imply that not only the Model 3 would have to perceptually and actually match the quality of two of the most successful german car makers in a short period of time, it would then have to take over almost half of their market share almost immediately. This would give it maybe a sales figure of 1 million in ten years after launch. I personally don't even thing the Model S can compete in interior detail to an A4, much less the much much cheaper upcoming Model 3 (if it did what would that do to the current Model S?)

This just doesn't seem likely unless the Model 3 has a much wider target audience. It has to go more after the markets of Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic (250K+ a year for each car).

This is one of the really cool things about the next generation of electrics.
It used to be that saving gasoline had to be your number one priority to buy a hybrid. This was because you really had to sacrifice performance, handling, etc for most hybrids that gave you outstanding fuel efficiency.
Now, with electric cars, you get low cost fueling, much higher efficiency, exceptional drive quality, performance, cargo/passenger space, and convenience all in one package.
When the next gen comes out at lower prices per mile of range I think they will have little trouble expanding sales dramatically.

Tesla, Nissan and perhaps GM are positioned to take advantage of this.

As for the millions on the road by 2025, I suspect that means all Tesla vehicles. Or possibly was he referring to cumulative sales?

 

[epirali]

This is one of the really cool things about the next generation of electrics.
It used to be that saving gasoline had to be your number one priority to buy a hybrid. This was because you really had to sacrifice performance, handling, etc for most hybrids that gave you outstanding fuel efficiency.
Now, with electric cars, you get low cost fueling, much higher efficiency, exceptional drive quality, performance, cargo/passenger space, and convenience all in one package.
When the next gen comes out at lower prices per mile of range I think they will have little trouble expanding sales dramatically.

Tesla, Nissan and perhaps GM are positioned to take advantage of this.

As for the millions on the road by 2025, I suspect that means all Tesla vehicles. Or possibly was he referring to cumulative sales?

I have no argument about the superiority of an all electric car, believe me. Big fan here, will not go back to traditional ICE if I can avoid it.

But the BEV achilles heal is the recharge/infrastructure, cost of batteries, longevity of batteries and weight. The Model 3 is compelling on paper because it can provide a range that is better than what is available today at a price that would allow mass adoption (so this excludes the Model S). But at $35K, assuming the credits expire, it is still a car that will compete with a number of near luxury cars in the segment. Or alternatively it has to be a much more mainstream car for large scale sales, and priced around $25K.

I understand the total cost to own is much lower for electric cars, but this is harder sell to most people than one realizes. To say "spend 10K more now to save $20K over 10 years" doesn't really fly. This is assuming there is enough battery life left after 10 years for useful day to day range.

Also I believe for sales numbers that the Model 3 is supposed to generate it has to function very well as the primary car for a lot of people (not secondary or with an ICE as backup). And I find it hard to believe that we will have any kind of infrastructure than can support a million electric cars in daily use any time soon.

 

[evnow]

Also I believe for sales numbers that the Model 3 is supposed to generate it has to function very well as the primary car for a lot of people (not secondary or with an ICE as backup). And I find it hard to believe that we will have any kind of infrastructure than can support a million electric cars in daily use any time soon.

I don't think they are going to have a million 3s anytime soon.

Just as Leaf2 will not sell a million anytime soon.

In the US - Leaf 2 can hope to achieve 100k sales a year. This would be mostly for families without one other car as the backup (which could be an ICE or a PHEV).

For 3 the problem will be the price. Without the tax credit - avg selling price will be north of $40k. Infact a decently optioned 3 will be north of $40k.

To get to a point where a significant % of people start having only BEVs in the family - we would need a couple of things.
- 3 to 4 hours of highway range
- Ubiquitous charging, which gives 3 to 4 hours of highway driving range in 30 minutes. The charging infrastructure needs to be everywhere and in such large numbers that I would almost always find an empty slot when I need it.

BTW, in a lot of states we are going to see incentives only for cheaper EVs. Already in WA only $35k and less EVs get sales tax off. So, unless I can get a 3 for $34,999 (and hopefully add after market options from Tesla), this would add 10% to the cost.

 

[epirali]

Also I believe for sales numbers that the Model 3 is supposed to generate it has to function very well as the primary car for a lot of people (not secondary or with an ICE as backup). And I find it hard to believe that we will have any kind of infrastructure than can support a million electric cars in daily use any time soon.

I don't think they are going to have a million 3s anytime soon.

Just as Leaf2 will not sell a million anytime soon.

In the US - Leaf 2 can hope to achieve 100k sales a year. This would be mostly for families without one other car as the backup (which could be an ICE or a PHEV).

For 3 the problem will be the price. Without the tax credit - avg selling price will be north of $40k. Infact a decently optioned 3 will be north of $40k.

To get to a point where a significant % of people start having only BEVs in the family - we would need a couple of things.
- 3 to 4 hours of highway range
- Ubiquitous charging, which gives 3 to 4 hours of highway driving range in 30 minutes. The charging infrastructure needs to be everywhere and in such large numbers that I would almost always find an empty slot when I need it.

BTW, in a lot of states we are going to see incentives only for cheaper EVs. Already in WA only $35k and less EVs get sales tax off. So, unless I can get a 3 for $34,999 (and hopefully add after market options from Tesla), this would add 10% to the cost.

I am in complete agreement with you here. The millions sales figure comes from Musk and is what a lot of Tesla/BEV supporters believe will happen with the Model 3. In fact unless Tesla manages to sell a lot of Model 3s their entire business plan is a bust. I personally believe companies like Audi and BMW (or even Nissan) have a better chance with a more limited range BEV with range extension in the near luxury market price range.

And I have always been surprised by the tax credit for expensive electric cars. That is a waste of targeted money to expand BEVs. Anyone who wants to spend $70k + on a car isn't being significantly swayed by the credit. But a $35k car purchase will be swayed. Or instead put the money used as credit towards expensive BEVs into multi-standard public infrastructure. In an indirect way we are giving money to Tesla via tax credit to build out a proprietary charging infrastructure.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...I am in complete agreement with you here. The millions sales figure comes from Musk and is what a lot of Tesla/BEV supporters believe will happen with the Model 3. In fact unless Tesla manages to sell a lot of Model 3s their entire business plan is a bust. I personally believe companies like Audi and BMW (or even Nissan) have a better chance with a more limited range BEV with range extension in the near luxury market price range...

My recollection was that Tesla wants a million total cars by 2020. That's all S, X, and 3s produced to that date.

For production of more than 500k per year I think that Tesla may need a second factory. That would be a happy problem to have if it actually happens. We shall see...

 

[epirali]

...I am in complete agreement with you here. The millions sales figure comes from Musk and is what a lot of Tesla/BEV supporters believe will happen with the Model 3. In fact unless Tesla manages to sell a lot of Model 3s their entire business plan is a bust. I personally believe companies like Audi and BMW (or even Nissan) have a better chance with a more limited range BEV with range extension in the near luxury market price range...

My recollection was that Tesla wants a million total cars by 2020. That's all S, X, and 3s produced to that date.

For production of more than 500k per year I think that Tesla may need a second factory. That would be a happy problem to have if it actually happens. We shall see...

Right, that is what I was talking about. To meet that number the number of Model 3s that are sold have to be in the 200K range/year average.

 

[Rebel44]

Elon Musk on twitter:
Model 3, our smaller and lower cost sedan will start production in about 2 years. Fully operational Gigafactory needed.

$35k price, unveil in March, preorders start then.

For some reason, this forum SW doesnt like me posting exact text of those tweets.... :roll:

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I can't wait until March! I wish I could justify a deposit that soon.

 

[keydiver]

I'll probably put down a deposit. By 2017 I will have either given the Leaf to my parents or sold it.

 

[evnow]

I'll cancel my X reservation at some point and reserve 3.

Would be very interesting to see how many reserve 3 in the first few days.

This is the rate at which Leaf got reservations.

6,000 in the first 2 days @ 3,000/day
3,000 in the next 22 days @ 135/day
3,000 in the next 3 days @ 1,000/day
6,000 in the next 85 days @ 70/day.
1,000 in the next 28 days @ 35/day

 

[ydnas7]

I'll cancel my X reservation at some point and reserve 3.

Would be very interesting to see how many reserve 3 in the first few days.

This is the rate at which Leaf got reservations.

6,000 in the first 2 days @ 3,000/day
3,000 in the next 22 days @ 135/day
3,000 in the next 3 days @ 1,000/day
6,000 in the next 85 days @ 70/day.
1,000 in the next 28 days @ 35/day

yeah but,
is the T3 refundable
is the T3 significantly higher than $99?