Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[TomT]

Refundable, yes. Higher than $99, definitely.

yeah but,
is the T3 refundable
is the T3 significantly higher than $99?

 

[evnow]

Higher than $99 is not a given - after all power wall reservation is free.

If they set $99 as the reservation amount that would send a powerful signal.

 

[TomT]

That has never been Musk's model and I doubt he'd change it that dramatically now...
Maybe a grand instead of 5 like for the S or X, but not 99 bucks...

Higher than $99 is not a given - after all power wall reservation is free.
If they set $99 as the reservation amount that would send a powerful signal.

 

[Sondy132001]

Elon Musk on twitter:
Model 3, our smaller and lower cost sedan will start production in about 2 years. Fully operational Gigafactory needed.

$35k price, unveil in March, preorders start then.

For some reason, this forum SW doesnt like me posting exact text of those tweets.... :roll:

Tesla Model 3 preorders to begin March 2016, production in 2 years:

http://mashable.com/2015/09/02/tesla-model-3-preorders-march-2016/

 

[evnow]

That has never been Musk's model and I doubt he'd change it that dramatically now...
Maybe a grand instead of 5 like for the S or X, but not 99 bucks...

Higher than $99 is not a given - after all power wall reservation is free.
If they set $99 as the reservation amount that would send a powerful signal.

Hmm ... as I said Power Wall reservation is free. So, Musk can go all the way from $40k to zero.

 

[nosuchthing]

Something tells me it's going to be $999

 

[Rebel44]

Something tells me it's going to be $999

I agree

 

[evnow]

Something tells me it's going to be $999

Possible.

Here is my take.

Tesla needs to get a humongous number of reservations. This keeps the stock price high allowing Tesla to raise more capital (that they definitely would need) at a low cost.

To get max reservations - Tesla could offer free reservation. But free reservations - everyone will say - means nothing much. So a low reservation price of $999 or if Musk is feeling bold $99 is likely.

The $99 send the signal that 3 is really for the masses and signals that Tesla is ready to tackle the mass market. This could get them upward of 250k reservations. This would tell us - Tesla is making a Leaf priced car - but a much better one.

 

[dhanson865]

I've been assuming $3,000 for a regular Model 3 reservation and $15,000 for a signature. But it's just a guess.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Something tells me it's going to be $999

Possible.

Here is my take.

Tesla needs to get a humongous number of reservations. This keeps the stock price high allowing Tesla to raise more capital (that they definitely would need) at a low cost.

To get max reservations - Tesla could offer free reservation. But free reservations - everyone will say - means nothing much. So a low reservation price of $999 or if Musk is feeling bold $99 is likely.

The $99 send the signal that 3 is really for the masses and signals that Tesla is ready to tackle the mass market. This could get them upward of 250k reservations. This would tell us - Tesla is making a Leaf priced car - but a much better one.

my take is there will be no reservation signup at all. they will simply start taking orders a few weeks before delivery

 

[evnow]

Dave,

You missed Elon's tweet that we can preorder 3 starting next march.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Dave,

You missed Elon's tweet that we can preorder 3 starting next march.

when will they start selling?

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
http://insideevs.com/tesla-ceo-model-3-pre-orders-debut-march-35k-pricing-confirmed/

 

[evnow]

when will they start selling?

Late 2017, officially.

I'd be surprised if it isn't 2018, in practice.

But unlike X, I expect 3 to not slip too much. Tesla will pay a very heavy financial price if it does. So, I'm sure they will give up on the "awesome" / "perfect" - and consider "shipping" as the most important feature.

 

[DanCar]

when will they start selling?

Late 2017, officially. I'd be surprised if it isn't 2018, in practice.
But unlike X, I expect 3 to not slip too much. Tesla will pay a very heavy financial price if it does. So, I'm sure they will give up on the "awesome" / "perfect" - and consider "shipping" as the most important feature.

Also the first ones sold will be the expensive ones with all of the options costing $60K.

 

[cwerdna]

when will they start selling?

Late 2017, officially. I'd be surprised if it isn't 2018, in practice.
But unlike X, I expect 3 to not slip too much. Tesla will pay a very heavy financial price if it does. So, I'm sure they will give up on the "awesome" / "perfect" - and consider "shipping" as the most important feature.

Also the first ones sold will be the expensive ones with all of the options costing $60K.

Yep.... knowing them, they'll start with the way most expensive fully loaded models and make available cheaper ones as time progresses... and they might pull the same business they did w/the 40 kWh Model S (http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=434835#p434835).

 

[evnow]

Tesla can't use the same tactics they used with premium car to sell a mass market car.

They should do away with sigs, offering the highest spec cars first, etc.

 

[Zythryn]

Tesla can't use the same tactics they used with premium car to sell a mass market car.

They should do away with sigs, offering the highest spec cars first, etc.

I disagree.
What better way to test a new line at full speed other than to simplify the number of variables.
And if you are going to start with one trim level, it just makes business sense to start with the one with the higher profit margin.

I don't expect the addition of other trim levels to take as much time as it did with the S, which was many months.
The X is much faster. Other than the signatures actually, I don't know that they are doing more expensive tri. Levels first, so perhaps my first statement is wrong and they will roll out all trims (minus signature models if they do those) at the same time.

 

[evnow]

I disagree.
What better way to test a new line at full speed other than to simplify the number of variables.
And if you are going to start with one trim level, it just makes business sense to start with the one with the higher profit margin.

A better way to start would be to see what kind of optics their actions give Tesla - that of catering to elites or to mass market.

Look at all the news articles on X. They all state how expensive it is - even though it is sig.

Since Musk keeps talking about $35k - the first offering that gets a lot of press - better cost $35k and not $70k

 

[Zythryn]

I don't think there will be fewer "sensationalized" headlines no matter what Tesla does.
The Model 3 is not a Camry competitor, it is a BMW 3 series competitor.
And if you are expecting the first Model 3s off the line to cost $35k, get ready for disappointment, as they will cost more than that.

Sure, the base Model will be $35k, or possibly even $35k in 2013 dollars. The people that put down the first deposits though will likely be people that wanted lots of options.
And most likely, their will be a signature edition, in which case, those will carry a higher price.