Official Tesla Model S thread

[Firetruck41]

In my case, I've recently begun to have doubts about whether I'd want adaptive cruise control on a car at this time, because unlike regular cruise control, ACC is capable of lulling me into trusting it by working almost all the time. With regular CC, if I stop paying attention there's no doubt whatsoever I'll hit anything I overtake, and I need to remain ready to reduce the set speed/brake/disengage CC/change lanes, so I remain fully alert in judging speeds and closure rates, checking for traffic to either side if I'll need to pass, etc. All I've done by using it is move the control of speed from my right foot to my right hand, but my brain is still fully engaged and responsible for driving the car. Of course, it's possible for someone to use CC and let their attention wander, but most people have enough sense to realize that they're still fully in charge of the car. For the rest, we'll never fully eliminate human-caused accidents as long as we're allowed to control vehicles directly, but we can certainly limit their number and severity by strictly limiting when/where we allow humans that level of control (once the machines can do the job more safely, that is).

Once ACC and auto-steer reach a level of maturity that I'm comfortable with, which will take around 8 or 9 nines reliability, it would be a different matter.

I'm sure others feel the same way, though it makes no logical sense. Many are colored by their anti-Tesla bias, others, maybe fear of the unknown? Basically you are saying you are comfortable using CC and you make a choice to pay attention to your surroundings, but that with "auto-pilot" you would choose to ignore your surroundings. Why wouldn't you just choose to continue to observe your surroundings? I could see not turning it on if you were drowsy, same as one should do with CC.

It amounts to what's implicit in the term "autopilot", verses CC. With CC the driver knows with certainty all the
limitations associated with using CC, i.e. a rear end collision requiring constant attention. Whereas, one typically
lacks the knowledge of the actual system limitations when using "autopilot", and is lulled into an unwarranted
sense of overall safety and security leading to a negligent and unsafe use of the system.

Ignorance and stupidity are great excuses! Frankly, if someone can do a little research and post in full sentences on this forum, I wouldn't expect them to be using that excuse, but kudos for honesty? I assume that if autopilot were named "Super Duper Cruise Control" the naysayers here would have no problem with it. :roll:

 

[lorenfb]

I'm sure others feel the same way, though it makes no logical sense. Many are colored by their anti-Tesla bias, others, maybe fear of the unknown? Basically you are saying you are comfortable using CC and you make a choice to pay attention to your surroundings, but that with "auto-pilot" you would choose to ignore your surroundings. Why wouldn't you just choose to continue to observe your surroundings? I could see not turning it on if you were drowsy, same as one should do with CC.

It amounts to what's implicit in the term "autopilot", verses CC. With CC the driver knows with certainty all the
limitations associated with using CC, i.e. a rear end collision requiring constant attention. Whereas, one typically
lacks the knowledge of the actual system limitations when using "autopilot", and is lulled into an unwarranted
sense of overall safety and security leading to a negligent and unsafe use of the system.

Ignorance and stupidity are great excuses! Frankly, if someone can do a little research and post in full sentences on this forum, I wouldn't expect them to be using that excuse, but kudos for honesty? I assume that if autopilot were named "Super Duper Cruise Control" the naysayers here would have no problem with it. :roll:

Sorry you failed to perceive the point, i.e. the term used and the way it's marketed by Tesla!

 

[lorenfb]

And now the CA DMV joins Germany on the use of the term "autopilot":

https://electrek.co/2016/10/17/tesl...lifornia-dmv-to-change-the-name-of-autopilot/

Tesla basically used MobiEye as the scapegoat for the "autopilot" inadequacies that resulted in the deadly Florida
accident with the truck trailer. The question arises as to how a tech company could put into production a system they
name as "autopilot" for use by basically naive and reliant consumers without extensive system evaluations,
i.e. how could system engineers not foresee "autopilot" not being able to distinguish a truck crossing a vehicle's
path with the essential reliance on an optics system. The use of DSP (digital signal processing) with radar should've
been allowed to override the optics DSP decision as has now been proposed in the latest version of "autopilot".

And here's the new "autopilot" system (sans the software promised later):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/401...e05f9e4639d86d79e8c53146d4&uprof=44&dr=1#alt1

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2016/10/21/tesla-reaches-new-self-driving-milestone-first-to.html

Tesla Motors will charge customers $8,000 to activate its latest self-driving technology, but drivers can offset the cost by joining the company’s ride-hailing network.

The $8,000 cost covers the software that operates the vehicles’ Full Self-Driving Capability hardware. The price goes up to $10,000 if purchased separately from the vehicle. The software will come via over-the-air updates and is still undergoing regulatory approval.

That's one hell of an in-app purchase.

I wonder how many $125k luxury sedan buyers are interested in having spring breakers puking in the back seat?

 

[finman100]

Go Elon and Tesla! I'm sorry for all the short stockers out there.

Tesla and crew keep doing everything cool. You do have to pay to play.

Keep it up, the Tesla future is happening, despite those who want them to fail. sad, sad. oh well, there's plenty of people wanting these products.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/20/watch-this-autonomous-tesla-drive-from-home-to-work-on-its-own/

wow. Autopilot 2.0. Mind blown.

 

[GRA]

In my case, I've recently begun to have doubts about whether I'd want adaptive cruise control on a car at this time, because unlike regular cruise control, ACC is capable of lulling me into trusting it by working almost all the time. With regular CC, if I stop paying attention there's no doubt whatsoever I'll hit anything I overtake, and I need to remain ready to reduce the set speed/brake/disengage CC/change lanes, so I remain fully alert in judging speeds and closure rates, checking for traffic to either side if I'll need to pass, etc. All I've done by using it is move the control of speed from my right foot to my right hand, but my brain is still fully engaged and responsible for driving the car. Of course, it's possible for someone to use CC and let their attention wander, but most people have enough sense to realize that they're still fully in charge of the car. For the rest, we'll never fully eliminate human-caused accidents as long as we're allowed to control vehicles directly, but we can certainly limit their number and severity by strictly limiting when/where we allow humans that level of control (once the machines can do the job more safely, that is).

Once ACC and auto-steer reach a level of maturity that I'm comfortable with, which will take around 8 or 9 nines reliability, it would be a different matter.

I'm sure others feel the same way, though it makes no logical sense. Many are colored by their anti-Tesla bias, others, maybe fear of the unknown? Basically you are saying you are comfortable using CC and you make a choice to pay attention to your surroundings, but that with "auto-pilot" you would choose to ignore your surroundings. Why wouldn't you just choose to continue to observe your surroundings? I could see not turning it on if you were drowsy, same as one should do with CC.

Because the human brain doesn't work that way (I used to live with a woman whose field this was). Maybe there's one person in a million who will maintain full alertness all the time despite the fact that the ACC has worked properly and more rapidly than they could the last 1,000 times it was necessary. Although I'm more aware of the limits of the capabilities of automatic systems and how much they can be trusted than the average person, I have my doubts that I would be that millionth person.

Just to take an example, my current car has ABS. Before I had ABS, I used to provide that capability manually in situations that required it (driving on ice, say). I've since trained myself to rely on the ABS, and just mash the pedal as hard as I can in emergency situations rather than trying to control the level of application to prevent lock-up, because the ABS can do the job far faster than I can, and does so reliably. But if the ABS were to fail, the odds against my being able to recognize the situation and revert to past practice in time to avoid an accident are small (I do have a tiny chance). ABS is more capable and reliable now in its field by several orders of magnitude compared to ACC systems in theirs, as the Brown accident and others have demonstrated.

IMO It's high time for governments to start writing and enforcing regulations for the various aspects of autonomous systems, instead of largely taking a company's word for it, just as they do for braking and other safety-critical systems. This is not for the purpose of delaying the tech, but to ensure that its adoption isn't retarded by a consumer backlash due to accidents caused by immature tech being pushed too fast, as I believe Tesla is doing. As a pedestrian and cyclist who has to dodge serious injury or death from distracted or bad drivers several times a month, autonomous cars can't get here soon enough. But if they injure/kill more people than they save, or even if that's just the perception the public has, then their arrival will be delayed. There's enough resistance to them as it is, without providing ammunition unnecessarily.

 

[lorenfb]

Go Elon and Tesla! I'm sorry for all the short stockers out there.

Tesla and crew keep doing everything cool. You do have to pay to play.

Keep it up, the Tesla future is happening, despite those who want them to fail. sad, sad. oh well, there's plenty of people wanting these products.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/20/watch-this-autonomous-tesla-drive-from-home-to-work-on-its-own/

wow. Autopilot 2.0. Mind blown.

Autopilot 2.0 insight:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/401...64733e1bd98b844a7d06cfe371&uprof=44&dr=1#alt1

What Elon probably emails to present owners of Model S/X:

Dear Tesla Model S/X Owners,

We apologize for not having done a robust worst case analysis on what was required of a system processor
to implement a "true autopilot" system. As a result, we have designed-in a new processor, i.e. 40X the GFLOPs
of your processor, in all future Model S/X deliveries. Presently, though, we have not designed the software
to utilize the new processor, but we'll be working on that in the near future. If you would like to have your system
hardware upgraded at a modest cost less than $10K and be ready for the OTA software delivery when it's
available, please contact our Sales Department.

Regards,
Elon Musk

 

[lorenfb]

How does Tesla's "new" autonomous driving system, Autopilot 2.0, compare with other corporate developments?
And how will autonomous driving be affected by future governmental regulations the result of inherent
deficiencies, i.e. a random intervention (an indeterminate step function input), resulting in a system's inability
to fully equal that of a human driver, thus compromising passenger safety? Can a systems' AI operate without
human intervention at an acceptable level?

An insightful view:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/401...b60f3a17349f6af4370fc86098&uprof=44&dr=1#alt1

 

[GRA]

Safety recall, via IEVS:

Tesla Issues Recall For Certain Charging Adapters Due To Overheating / Potential For Fire

http://insideevs.com/tesla-issues-recall-certain-charging-adapters-due-overheating-potential-fire/

Only the optional NEMA 14-30 (some), 10-30 and 6-50 adapters are affected; standard 5-15 and 14-50 (came with car), 6-15, 5-20 and are okay.

 

[edatoakrun]

A few recent articles have noted that depreciation has resulted in relative bargains on used S's, now that a number of them a few years old are available for sale:

Instead Of Waiting For A Model 3, You Can Buy A Tesla Model S For Less

...in order to check out the pre-owned (code word for: used) market, I decided to glance through Autotrader. To my surprise, I found quite a few Model S used vehicles listing around $42,000. Why is that number significant? Elon Musk tweeted that, “Selling price w avg option mix prob $42k” — so he’s expecting most Model 3 vehicles to be sold around that price. Okay, you’re probably thinking that it’s unfair to pit Model S vehicles versus the Model 3 average selling price. What about the Model 3 base price? To my shock, I found a used 60kWh 2013 Model S with about 50,000 miles listing for $34,400...

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/10/instead-waiting-model-3-can-buy-tesla-model-s-less/

Recent EBAY listings and completed sales (in green) here:

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=6001&_nkw=tesla+s&LH_Complete=1&_dmpt=US_Cars_Trucks&_sop=12

Looks like you still have to accept a bit of shabbiness, for ~$33k:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Model-S-Base-plus-Supercharging-no-tech-package-/302153748749?forcerrptr=true&hash=item4659c4510d:g:HpAAAOSw4GVYM57U&item=302153748749#cvip_desc

I'd caution buyers should expect rapid depreciation to continue, and maintenance and repairs will be very costly, so even a three year old S bought today at ~ half the new price probably will remain a very expensive car to own in the future.

 

[abasile]

My opinion is that the best way to buy a used Model S is through Tesla Motors and obtain their pre-owned vehicle warranty which is good for five years or 50,000 miles. As for depreciation, my understanding is that Tesla vehicles are actually holding their values quite well compared to similar-class vehicles. Premium or luxury cars do depreciate! That said, our LEAF has been the fastest-depreciating car we've ever owned.

 

[edatoakrun]

... my understanding is that Tesla vehicles are actually holding their values quite well compared to similar-class vehicles...

You are in the position to test that assertion and report the depreciation costs for new and used S owners (if you'd like to) by answering:

What was the MY and list price with options of your S when sold new?

What did you pay for your S, at what date and milage?

What do you think you could you get for your S, if you sold it today, at what milage?

 

[abasile]

... my understanding is that Tesla vehicles are actually holding their values quite well compared to similar-class vehicles...

You are in the position to test that assertion and report the depreciation costs for new and used S owners (if you'd like to) by answering:

What was the MY and list price with options of your S when sold new?

What did you pay for your S, at what date and milage?

What do you think you could you get for your S, if you sold it today, at what milage?

As for our personal situation, I'll simply say that we'd do just fine if we had to part with our Model S today.

Here's an article on this topic, albeit three months old, that references what seems to be a reputable study: https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/tesla-model-s-value-retention-leading-segment-losing-only-28-after-50k-miles/

 

[edatoakrun]

="abasile"

... my understanding is that Tesla vehicles are actually holding their values quite well compared to similar-class vehicles...

You are in the position to test that assertion and report the depreciation costs for new and used S owners (if you'd like to) by answering:

What was the MY and list price with options of your S when sold new?

What did you pay for your S, at what date and milage?

What do you think you could you get for your S, if you sold it today, at what milage?

As for our personal situation, I'll simply say that we'd do just fine if we had to part with our Model S today. ...

If your bliss is the result of ignorance, you may not want to read on...

="abasile"
...Here's an article on this topic, albeit three months old, that references what seems to be a reputable study: https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/tesla-model-s-value-retention-leading-segment-losing-only-28-after-50k-miles/

Reputable?

I suggest choose your sources more carefully, rather than relying on those posted on a Tesla fansite.

Used Tesla prices did hold up quite well in the past (not unlike how LEAF prices did for the first few years) due to supply/demand imbalance and the lack of competition from used models, or competing BEV models from other manufactures.

And of course, Tesla's reale price guarantee (now discontinued) also tended to prop up used Tesla prices in the past.

However, past performance seems not to have predicted future results.

Not infallible, but KBB values certainly seem to be in line with the sales prices cited on the previous page, and other reputable sources.

It looks to me that KBB shows your S, in good condition, with no options other than the 85 kWh pack, to have a trade-in value of ~$33k, and private party sale value of ~$36k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/sedan-4d/?vehicleid=412348&intent=trade-in-sell&mileage=74000&pricetype=trade-in&options=6811297|true&condition=good

Wasn't the original list on the same 2012 S85, with no other options, ~$77.4K?

If so, between you and the original buyer, close to $40 k (and over 50%) depreciation taken in ~74k miles, much greater than the source you posted shows, and close to the same depreciation rates suffered by most other expensive vehicles.

Of course, you need to deduct the incentives received on initial sale, and add all other operating costs, to find total cost of ownership.

Any way you do the math, a Tesla has been a very expensive car to own.

This was before a much lower cost BEV in the same range class (Bolt) was available.

And several BEVs in the same range and price class, from MB, Audi, and Jaguar, will soon be available (and perhaps the Tesla 3, as well) for new BEV buyers to choose over a Tesla S or X, new or used.

So, good luck, as to what your S will be worth in the future.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

my really close 2nd choice was a CPO Tesla. there were tons in the $40,000's range including a few S85's with the tech package (most were over $110,000 new) there was also one with tech package, dual chargers (don't need) etc. with 21,000 miles for $50,000... so what is bad for Telsa is good for us.

FYI; A CPO Telsa has not been elminated from possible future plans

 

[abasile]

While Electrek may be a Tesla fan site, they referenced a study done by a third party that seemed reputable.

For our personal needs, there's no comparison between a Tesla and a Bolt. We have a much larger vehicle that's great as a family car and has access to the Supercharger network. In any case, relative to those KBB values, we are doing fine. Tesla did give us a pre-owned warranty and our car is pretty well optioned out. And we are happy that Tesla was able to benefit from selling us a car. Hopefully we won't be selling either of our EVs for a long time.

 

[Zythryn]

...

Used Tesla prices did hold up quite well in the past (not unlike how LEAF prices did for the first few years) due to supply/demand imbalance and the lack of competition from used models, or competing BEV models from other manufactures.

And of course, Tesla's reale price guarantee (now discontinued) also tended to prop up used Tesla prices in the past.

However, past performance seems not to have predicted future results.

Not infallible, but KBB values certainly seem to be in line with the sales prices cited on the previous page, and other reputable sources.

It looks to me that KBB shows your S, in good condition, with no options other than the 85 kWh pack, to have a trade-in value of ~$33k, and private party sale value of ~$36k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/sedan-4d/?vehicleid=412348&intent=trade-in-sell&mileage=74000&pricetype=trade-in&options=6811297|true&condition=good

Wasn't the original list on the same 2012 S85, with no other options, ~$77.4K?

If so, between you and the original buyer, close to $40 k (and over 50%) depreciation taken in ~74k miles, much greater than the source you posted shows, and close to the same depreciation rates suffered by most other expensive vehicles.

Of course, you need to deduct the incentives received on initial sale, and add all other operating costs, to find total cost of ownership.

Any way you do the math, a Tesla has been a very expensive car to own.

This was before a much lower cost BEV in the same range class (Bolt) was available.

And several BEVs in the same range and price class, from MB, Audi, and Jaguar, will soon be available (and perhaps the Tesla 3, as well) for new BEV buyers to choose over a Tesla S or X, new or used.

So, good luck, as to what your S will be worth in the future.

The Tesla continues to hold up well.
That type of depreciation is typical for luxury cars.

For example, a base BMW 7 series, 2013 Model year, had a base price of about $82k. KBB used sale price pegs it, with 74k miles, at... $33k. Which is actually a bigger depreciation than the Tesla's you mentioned, from the same source.

Feel free to twist facts and hate Tesla all you want, but the facts don't seem to support your positions.

There is no doubt the Teslas are expensive cars, I don't think that was ever a secret. They are cheaper than other similarly equipped luxury cars though.

 

[edatoakrun]

...There is no doubt the Teslas are expensive cars, I don't think that was ever a secret...

Well, not a secret to anyone who knew Elon musk was in fact dissembling when he announced his master plan:

Elon Musk, Co-Founder & CEO of Tesla Motors August 2, 2006

...So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation...

https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me?redirect=no

But it's good to see from your post that you now at least accept the reality that Tesla's depreciate at about the same rate as other expensive vehicles.

Meaning that Tesla resale values drop like a rock...

 

[Zythryn]

...There is no doubt the Teslas are expensive cars, I don't think that was ever a secret...

Well, not a secret to anyone who knew Elon musk was in fact dissembling when he announced his master plan:

Elon Musk, Co-Founder & CEO of Tesla Motors August 2, 2006

...So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation...

https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me?redirect=no

But it's good to see from your post that you now at least accept the reality that Tesla's depreciate at about the same rate as other expensive vehicles.

Meaning that Tesla resale values drop like a rock...

:lol:
You are so funny Ed.
I have always held that Teslas depreciate no faster than similar cars in the same price bracket.
You may have me confused with someone else.

BTW, this is exactly the position that Musk held when he announced the buy back garauntee.
According to the data you shared, Tesla's are holding up even better than other large luxury cars.
If you take the rebate into count, it is even better.

But yes, that much of a drop in value could be termed "drop like a rock". Thing is, all cars depreciate, Tesla is not unique, and they do better than others of its class.

 

[abasile]

With EVs, especially Teslas, depreciation is part of the price of progress. The rate of improvement in EV range and features has been faster than many predicted. Today's Tesla vehicles are selling with hardware that is being advertised as sufficient to enable full autonomy. Assuming that proves to be the case, as I expect it will, though probably not as quickly as hoped for, that'll represent a huge leap forward. It's no surprise that the advent of "AutoPilot 2" this Fall may have caused some additional depreciation in used Tesla vehicles! Not enough to worry me, though.