Official Tesla Model S thread

[Valdemar]

Will be interesting to see how they retain their value after the battery warranty is out, I suspect they won't retain any value at all.

 

[Zythryn]

Will be interesting to see how they retain their value after the battery warranty is out, I suspect they won't retain any value at all.

Anything is possible.
Considering past performance though, the batteries seem to hold up quite well.
CPO vehicles all get a new warrantee, however I am not sure how the private market will react.
It will be interesting to see, unfortunately we have at least 4 years to wait.

 

[GRA]

Will be interesting to see how they retain their value after the battery warranty is out, I suspect they won't retain any value at all.

Anything is possible.
Considering past performance though, the batteries seem to hold up quite well.
CPO vehicles all get a new warrantee, however I am not sure how the private market will react.
It will be interesting to see, unfortunately we have at least 4 years to wait.

As previously noted, I expect the ending of free-for-life SC'ing will help hold up the value of used Model S/Xs for several years yet.

 

[edatoakrun]

... I expect the ending of free-for-life SC'ing will help hold up the value of used Model S/Xs for several years yet.

For Tesla's that qualify for that offer, those ordered by the end of this month, yes.

But the rapid depreciation that Ss and Xs have experienced so far, seems to indicate it did not slow price declines to any great extent.

And since all new Teslas will need to pay (unannounced) fees to use the:

...NOT "free...forever" Tesla DC network

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=19617&start=110

You should expect future Teslas to depreciate faster than have all existing Ss and Xs, since all buyers previously were required to pay the price for both the car, and all future DC accesss, bundled into the total purchase price they paid for their used car.

 

[dgpcolorado]

As a used Model S buyer I view the new car depreciation as a good thing! Although I have a Model 3 reservation my inclination is to trade in my Model S for another used one — or, perhaps, a used Model 3 — in a few years to get a fresh CPO warranty (four years, 50k miles). If it weren't for my state EV rebate, it wouldn't even be much of a decision (I'm too low income to qualify for the federal tax credit). It will be interesting to see how things shake out over the next couple of years.

^ Camping and charging in Zion National Park.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Will be interesting to see how they retain their value after the battery warranty is out, I suspect they won't retain any value at all.

Li generally has a limitation of roughly 10 years. now how useful the car will be then is anyone's guess. It could still be useful on a "LEAF" level....

 

[Rebel44]

Will be interesting to see how they retain their value after the battery warranty is out, I suspect they won't retain any value at all.

Li generally has a limitation of roughly 10 years. now how useful the car will be then is anyone's guess. It could still be useful on a "LEAF" level....

source of that claim (10 years effective lifetime)?

 

[GRA]

Via IEVS and Electrek:

Hacker Discovers Usable Battery Capacity For Multiple Versions Of Model S & X

http://insideevs.com/hacker-discovers-usable-battery-capacity-model-s-x/

Technology hacker, Jason Hughes, has been able to gain access to Tesla’s battery management system. He discovered some very interesting information about the “actual” battery capacity of various Tesla models, as well as the “usable” capacity. . . .

• Here is what Hughes found, per Electrek:
  
  Original 60 – ~61 kWh total capacity, ~58.5 kWh usable.
  85/P85/85D/P85D – ~81.5 kWh total capacity, ~77.5 kWh usable
  90D/P90D – ~85.8 kWh total capacity, 81.8 kWh usable
  Original 70 – ~71.2 kWh total capacity, 68.8 kWh usable
  75/75D – 75 kWh total capacity, 72.6 kWh usable
  Software limited 60/60D – 62.4 kWh usable
  Software limited 70/70D – 65.9 kWh usable

IIRR, Hughes is the guy who first found the code for the P100D.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Just curious, is the structure of the center console plywood? (covered with padding and leather)

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Will be interesting to see how they retain their value after the battery warranty is out, I suspect they won't retain any value at all.

Li generally has a limitation of roughly 10 years. now how useful the car will be then is anyone's guess. It could still be useful on a "LEAF" level....

source of that claim (10 years effective lifetime)?

Google. Every manufacturer claims near monthly improvements in battery chemistry so we can probably say we now have 12 years or maybe even 15 years but the fact remains the time is a degradation factor that is unavoidable with any current BMS/TMS technology.

 

[Rebel44]

Li generally has a limitation of roughly 10 years. now how useful the car will be then is anyone's guess. It could still be useful on a "LEAF" level....

source of that claim (10 years effective lifetime)?

Google. Every manufacturer claims near monthly improvements in battery chemistry so we can probably say we now have 12 years or maybe even 15 years but the fact remains the time is a degradation factor that is unavoidable with any current BMS/TMS technology.

BS

There is a difference between warranty and lifetime.

Some degradation is obviously inevitable, but claiming that current batteries have 10 year lifetime isnt true (some might, but differences between various batteries are quite big).

 

[arnis]

Most Tesla owners agree that with modest Tesla use degradation is around
2% first year and 1% per year after that. So 11% lost in a decade.

Newer Leafs degrade around twice (up to thrice) as fast in mild weather.
For Tesla having only 50% of capacity left is still OK.
For Leaf it is ok only for secondary vehicle. For example many Volt users have almost
never used gasoline engine. Those could use 50% degraded Leaf as secondary vehicle.

There is no hard limit to when "battery needs to be replaced due to degradation".


BTW I have two Toshiba laptops from 1997. They still have their original battery in them.
If I remember correctly one of those laptops was able to run for half an hour with that battery,
other for 15 minutes. Are those batteries dead? No.
I also have 5 batteries for my 2012 Dell and 3 of those batteries hold less few minutes.
Those are dead as they also self discharge within an hour. And two of those are from 2014.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

source of that claim (10 years effective lifetime)?

Google. Every manufacturer claims near monthly improvements in battery chemistry so we can probably say we now have 12 years or maybe even 15 years but the fact remains the time is a degradation factor that is unavoidable with any current BMS/TMS technology.

BS

There is a difference between warranty and lifetime.

Some degradation is obviously inevitable, but claiming that current batteries have 10 year lifetime isnt true (some might, but differences between various batteries are quite big).

well I guess that is how well we accept that a pack which is 70% degraded is done (anyone notice the Nissan exchange parameters for capacity warranty is below this?) There is no doubt many will eek it beyond a 4 bar loss

 

[Rebel44]

Google. Every manufacturer claims near monthly improvements in battery chemistry so we can probably say we now have 12 years or maybe even 15 years but the fact remains the time is a degradation factor that is unavoidable with any current BMS/TMS technology.

BS

There is a difference between warranty and lifetime.

Some degradation is obviously inevitable, but claiming that current batteries have 10 year lifetime isnt true (some might, but differences between various batteries are quite big).

well I guess that is how well we accept that a pack which is 70% degraded is done (anyone notice the Nissan exchange parameters for capacity warranty is below this?) There is no doubt many will eek it beyond a 4 bar loss

Current Nissan batteries are those that I dont expect to get past 10 years (likely less) - but others dont suffer as much.

 

[lorenfb]

Most Tesla owners agree that with modest Tesla use degradation is around
2% first year and 1% per year after that. So 11% lost in a decade.

What is your basis for concluding that degradation remains totally linear over time? Actual longitudinal
data for the Tesla Model S is less than 5 years. Projected degradation data for the Roadster was only based
on projected miles driven and not time, i.e. still less than a 5 year projection.

 

[arnis]

Batteries do mostly degrade at the constant speed* if temperature, DoD and everything else
is kept the same. Losing a percent of range on Tesla keeps DoD practically the same
if the commute doesn't change.

*Little bit faster in the beginning due to recent date of manufacturing.

For a Leaf that was at daily 60% DoD and then degraded for 5 years DoD does increase significantly if commute is the same.


It can not be ideally linear but 5-10% change in degradation speed is a fraction of one percent, not possible to notice that in
real life within a decade, especially with 1% annual degradation. Imagine 1.0%, 1,1%, 1.21%, 1,33%...

I believe lab tests confirm that. Unfortunately most are way too extreme (starting at real 100% SOC rather than EV style 4.0-4.1V)
and exaggerate the results. This is why many still believe EV batteries needs replacement annually as Li-ion battery
manufacturers "totally degrade" cells within like few hundred cycles. Therefore 365 cycles per year and EV is dead :lol:

 

[TonyWilliams]

Most Tesla owners agree that with modest Tesla use degradation is around
2% first year and 1% per year after that. So 11% lost in a decade.

"Most" might agree, but I think the facts might not be as clear. Yes, I'm familiar with the crowd sourced polls.

My 2015 Tesla (with over 50,000 miles) is at about 5% degradation, which I think is exceptional. But, my 80,000 mile 2012 Toyota Rav4 EV is about 15% degraded. It uses the same cells as the Tesla Roadster, which I find to also be in the 10-18% degraded range on average for the many that I have actually checked with 6-8 years of use, and all of which have low miles for their age. There have been a number of Roadsters with battery replacements (out of only 2500 total cars). Very few Rav4 EVs have had the battery replaced (less than 10 that I know of) out of 2500 cars in contrast. I suspect the newest Model S / X is an order of magnitude better yet.

There's a very large gap between the Nissan LEAF and a Tesla, but Tesla owners tend to be optimists. Their batteries are indeed good, and likely getting better, but let's not blow smoke.

 

[lorenfb]

Most Tesla owners agree that with modest Tesla use degradation is around
2% first year and 1% per year after that. So 11% lost in a decade.

"Most" might agree, but I think the facts might not be as clear. Yes, I'm familiar with the crowd sourced polls.

My 2015 Tesla (with over 50,000 miles) is at about 5% degradation, which I think is exceptional. But, my 80,000 mile 2012 Toyota Rav4 EV is about 15% degraded. It uses the same cells as the Tesla Roadster, which I find to also be in the 10-18% degraded range on average for the many that I have actually checked with 6-8 years of use, and all of which have low miles for their age. There have been a number of Roadsters with battery replacements (out of only 2500 total cars). Very few Rav4 EVs have had the battery replaced (less than 10 that I know of) out of 2500 cars in contrast. I suspect the newest Model S / X is an order of magnitude better yet.

There's a very large gap between the Nissan LEAF and a Tesla, but Tesla owners tend to be optimists. Their batteries are indeed good, and likely getting better, but let's not blow smoke.

Thanks for your rational and insightful comments.

 

[lorenfb]

Batteries do mostly degrade at the constant speed* if temperature, DoD and everything else
is kept the same. Losing a percent of range on Tesla keeps DoD practically the same
if the commute doesn't change.

*Little bit faster in the beginning due to recent date of manufacturing.

For a Leaf that was at daily 60% DoD and then degraded for 5 years DoD does increase significantly if commute is the same.


It can not be ideally linear but 5-10% change in degradation speed is a fraction of one percent, not possible to notice that in
real life within a decade, especially with 1% annual degradation. Imagine 1.0%, 1,1%, 1.21%, 1,33%...

I believe lab tests confirm that. Unfortunately most are way too extreme (starting at real 100% SOC rather than EV style 4.0-4.1V)
and exaggerate the results. This is why many still believe EV batteries needs replacement annually as Li-ion battery
manufacturers "totally degrade" cells within like few hundred cycles. Therefore 365 cycles per year and EV is dead :lol:

Based on your somewhat circular argument and basically anecdotal evidence, your theory concerning
expected long term Tesla battery degradation is questionable.

Again, without any long term longitudinal data study, any future Tesla ten year battery life expectations
are essentially conjecture.

 

[arnis]

Most Tesla owners agree that with modest Tesla use degradation is around
2% first year and 1% per year after that. So 11% lost in a decade.

"Most" might agree, but I think the facts might not be as clear. Yes, I'm familiar with the crowd sourced polls.

My 2015 Tesla (with over 50,000 miles) is at about 5% degradation, which I think is exceptional. But, my 80,000 mile 2012 Toyota Rav4 EV is about 15% degraded. It uses the same cells as the Tesla Roadster, which I find to also be in the 10-18% degraded range on average for the many that I have actually checked with 6-8 years of use, and all of which have low miles for their age. There have been a number of Roadsters with battery replacements (out of only 2500 total cars). Very few Rav4 EVs have had the battery replaced (less than 10 that I know of) out of 2500 cars in contrast. I suspect the newest Model S / X is an order of magnitude better yet.

There's a very large gap between the Nissan LEAF and a Tesla, but Tesla owners tend to be optimists. Their batteries are indeed good, and likely getting better, but let's not blow smoke.

My bad. I meant Model S and X owners only.

And yes there are batteries that degrade at not expected rate. Like Leaf in hot climate.

lorenfb - I'm tired to give evidence on everything I say. That evidence is mostly not respected. And as I don't earn money for that I
will do it only if I'm interested and willing.

http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=22752&start=30
I gave evidence and what? Didn't prove anything.