The RAV4 EV is back

[Gavin]

Sigh...cool...after being a mod at two EV forums..one for 2 1/2 years, it is fun to be accused of anti ev FUD for the first time...

But that is how it goes on the Internet.

That said, it's all good. Those expensive laptop batteries will get cheaper. Just like nissan's battery pack will get better range over time. The future of EV is getting better every day.

Gavin

Ps...please let us know what the cost to replace a tesla roadster battery today would be...all we have to go by is what musk tells us...currently that is 36k...I imagine it is less but don't have any answer but his...we would love to know a different answer that has more current facts...And a RAV4 electric that goes 250 mile per charge would be bigger than a roadster pack as a RAV4 is bigger and heavier and has much lower aero...so a RAV4 running laptop batteries at current Tesla prices would be...?

 

[evnow]

According to the year and a half old article, a customer can pay $12,000 today for a replacement battery in 7 years.

So, what do you do between 3 and 7 years ?

ps : How about time value of money ?

 

[LEAFer]

According to the year and a half old article, a customer can pay $12,000 today for a replacement battery in 7 years.

So, what do you do between 3 and 7 years ?

ps : How about time value of money ?

I guess between years 3-7 you just have to "suffer" the range loss (not too bad, considering you're starting with 200+ miles). But I think they also offer a $2k/year option if you want one prior to year 7 (don't know for how many years in advance).

Time-value-of-money: True; that's something to consider. But basically the $12k represents simply 10% of the cost of the car (+/-) and is thus an "affordable insurance policy" to a Tesla owner. By extrapolation, for the LEAF the equivalent would be a new battery pack costing $3,300 after 7 years. I would go for that. So if Nissan says they'll take care of me for 7 or 8 years/100k, and after the 8th year, if the car is still performing well otherwise and I still like it, I pay $3,300 ... that's "peanuts" ... especially if I've had no (or very little) maintenance and the likelihood of that will continue ( I should be able to judge that even not being a mechanic after living with the car for so long ).

The big difference here is ... you pay Tesla $12k NOW (non-refundable), but you'll have a "better" car even when it reaches its 7th birthday (or resale value prior to then (the option transfers with the car)).

So ... would I pay $3,300 now (10%) to Nissan and they guarantee an equivalent performance (100 miles) in 7 years ? Hmmm ... need to think more about that, but yes, I might seriously consider that. The lease available with LEAF (not Tesla, or unaffordable) is still really, really attractive, though, given all the uncertainties and near-term (3-4 years) market developments.

 

[evnow]

Well, 54kwh will cost a cool $27k @ $500/kwh. Tesla is assuming a halving of price in 7 years. $12K is about $16k in 7 years @5%.

Anyway, back on topic, I expect Rav 4 EV to aim for 100 mile range with some 30kwh of battery and 5 year warranty.

 

[jkirkebo]

Ps I FULLy support EVs...as a mod here and at Aptera. But I want affordable mainstream EVs. When Tesla makes their promised 30k EV, I will applaud them...till then they are the same as Ferrari...pretty, but elite. And very very niche. Evs need to be very very not niche.

Maybe in the US, but not over here. Gasoline and diesel cars are heavily taxed, EVs are not. A loaded VW Touran 2.0TDI like mine costs about $75K, a BMW 535i (Model S competitior) around $180k. A Model S at $65k (my guess for euro spec.) is cheap in comparison. Even a tiny car here costs $30k.

Even the quite expensive Tesla Roadster is cheaper here than for example a BMW Z4 3.0. And the average selling price of a new car is somewhere around $60k...

 

[jkirkebo]

It's also a function of energy density, of which Tesla is best in class. Unless one doesn't care about the battery weighing in at 2000 lbs

You do get better ED when going with higher capacity as BMS weight doesn't have to go up proportionally with capacity ....

In any case, unless the specs for the Rav4 EV is actually announced, along with price - you can't make any assumptions about the battery.

Yes of course. I am (perphaps wrongly) assuming it would use the same battery case and sheets as the Model S as the prototypes are delivered so soon. Hopefully the production model will also use the same form factor as one of the Tesla cars.

BTW, Leafs battery is what, 600 lbs for 24kWh ? Teslas large ~90kWh battery should weigh in at somewhat less than 1200 lbs. That's nearly twice the energy density...

 

[Zythryn]

... it's all good. Those expensive laptop batteries will get cheaper. Just like nissan's battery pack will get better range over time. The future of EV is getting better every day.

Very true, more and more competition is wonderful and now that companies with the ability to mass produce vehicles are getting in the fray the future may finally be here!

And if I misunderstood you, I do apologize.
This is the quote that really got me going though:

spending 40k on a 3 year battery pack ...

.
To a casual ready, this seems to imply the battery pack is only good for 3 years. The overestimate of your own source (36k vs 40k) only adds to the general negativity of the statement. Then adding that the customer is spending that money for a battery just adds to it.
When buying a Tesla roadster you are indeed spending money to buy the battery, and yes, at last years prices the cost was $36k.
However, if I am buying a spare Roadster battery today for use in my car when the first wears out, it will cost me 12K, not 36K. If the battery needs replacing in a roadster today, it will cost the consumer nothing as it is within the 3 year warranty. The only way I could see the battery costing someone 36k today is if you are making your own EV and want to buy the pack alone from Tesla (if even possible).

I get that you don't think the Tesla Roadster does anything to help get EVs on the road in numbers high enough to make a difference. But I disagree and I guess that is why I was unsettled by what I read in your post.
Roadster's promote the idea of EVs. They get people talking about EVs and shatter some of the misperceptions. Sure, not everyone, or even many people are going to buy a roadster, but they may be considering a Leaf, Aptera, or other EV as a result of seeing what EVs are capable of.
As a fraction of the vehicle cost, the Roadster's battery pack is pretty much in line, if not a smaller percentage than some others. As I recall, the Leaf battery pack is supposed to be about 12K (please correct me if I am wrong)? Which is just a bit over a third of the vehicle cost. If we assume the full price Tesla pays is 36K, that also is just over a third of the full price of the base vehicle 109K.

I do agree with you that we need to get more EVs out there. And the Leaf and Aptera are awesome feats of engineering and wonderful products. However, just because I don't find the Aptera to fit my needs doesn't mean I am going to make negative comments about it in general. While it doesn't fit my needs, it does fit other's needs and we need to get an Aptera in the hands of everyone who's needs it fits
And getting EVs into ALL parts of the market they are capable of filling would be a wonderful thing!

And again, I am sorry if I read more into your comments than was intended. It is one of the things that can be difficult about communicating on the internet

 

[evnow]

BTW, Leafs battery is what, 600 lbs for 24kWh ? Teslas large ~90kWh battery should weigh in at somewhat less than 1200 lbs. That's nearly twice the energy density...

You can't compare the real battery weight of a car near production to that of something coming in perhaps 25-30 months. As I've said elsewhere vaporware is always lighter !

While the 18650 cells that Tesla uses may be somewhat more energy dense, they are nowhere near double of Leafs. We simply don't have enough specs from Nissan to actually figure out the real ED at cell level. At the same time, we can't ignore the fact that Tesla's batteries are warranteed for 3 years. That means they drive the cells much harder than Nissan does - and that could account for the difference in usable ED.

Again as I said, to assume Rav 4 EV will be a 52kwh pack (or even more as in Model S 300 mile) is foolhardy. RAV 4 is a middle class small SUV - starting price of $21,675. The EV version can't be priced like a luxury car. Remember RAV 4 EV is to compete at some level with Nissan Leaf - not Model S. This means they have to price it below $40K - which means the pack can't be too big. Then there is the matter of pack size. Everything points to a 100 or 125 mile range 30kwh battery in RAV4 EV.

ps : SAE reported sometime back that Leaf battery weighs 480 pounds, including control module. I've a feeling the 600 pound being quoted now (by Perry, I guess) includes the charger and some other things that were moved from the front of the car to the back of the pack (and thus the hump we see in the trunc of Leaf now).

http://www.sae.org/mags/aei/7714

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

It would be great if it lasted 10 years...but what if it lasts 4?

That's why I like a longer warranty...peace of mind...it also shows the company believes in the battery pack...

computer laptop batteries are often dead or useless in three years or less...the telsa uses laptop batteries...hence my concerns...

Gavin

No wonder, laptop batteries are charged to 100% and often run very hot. Still they're not dead after 3 years, usually they retain at least 50% capacity after being tortured for 3 years. With proper cooling and charging to a lower voltage they should last much longer.

Toyota might also opt to warranty the packs for a longer time.

The "what if it only lasts 4 years" is applicable to ICE cars too, warranty is usually 3 years (at least over here) and an engine replacent on a 2.0TDI is NOT cheap.

standard laptop batteries are not designed to last 3 years, btw so if you got 3 years out of one, consider yourself lucky. obtw, while we are talking about batteries; cellphone batteries for smartphones are only designed to last a year. sucks when you consider that most are only allowed to upgrade every 2 years. but that is by design. why do u think car chargers are priced at 300% of their real worth?? its because THEY CAN!!!

as far as expected range for the RAV 4?? i dont think that 100 miles will be acceptable in 2 years. it is now, but i think that 200 miles will be the standard by 2012

**edit** as an afterthought, we dont see it because we are "all in" on EV tech. but there are a TON of looky=loo's out there waiting in the wings to see how these cars actually perform.

in two years, the market will be much larger as the Leaf proves itself and more people will be trading in their ICE cars for EV's but will need more range. more charging stations will help, but it may take years before they penetrate the interior of the country in sufficient #'s to support a lower range.

 

[evnow]

as far as expected range for the RAV 4?? i dont think that 100 miles will be acceptable in 2 years. it is now, but i think that 200 miles will be the standard by 2012

**edit** as an afterthought, we dont see it because we are "all in" on EV tech. but there are a TON of looky=loo's out there waiting in the wings to see how these cars actually perform.

There is no doubt a larger range is desired. The question is what does that do to price, weight, usable space. Sometime back, there was some PR about Panasonic delivering the highest density cells available to Tesla.

http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/en091218-2/en091218-2.html

How much did the Ed actually improve ? 620wh/L to 675wh/L or less than 10%. Unless we get to NMC the ED is not going to get high enough to allow 200 mile range in high volume EVs (in other words inexpensive, mass market EVs). There are a dozen companies working on NMC - including Nissan, LG, Panasonic. But it will not get to market in 2012.

Let us look at it this way. 100 mile range needs 25kwh, 200 mile would be 50kwh. That is a good $25K @ $500/Kwh. So, every 100 mile range adds $10-$15K in cost. Ofcourse there is that problem of higher weight and space needs too, which is far from trivial.

 

[AndyH]

From a viewpoint of someone that works with lithium cells, builds and tests packs, and assembles a number of battery management systems, I really, really want to address something.

Most people think that "lithium ion" means laptops and cell phones. Yes - cell phones and other portable devices use lithium cobalt and/or lithium polymer cells. Yes - when allowed to run to their voltage limits, when charged with very cheap, dumb chargers, and when 'planned obsolescence' allows a company to add to their revenue stream selling replacement batteries, these cells can be configured to work for a year.

But the exact same cells CAN be used and managed to provide many years of life! It's the difference between 500 charge cycles and 2000 cycles.

The 1 year life of Li-ion and LiPo in SOME applications is an absolute reflection on management decisions and not a reflection on battery capability.

 

[evnow]

The 1 year life of Li-ion and LiPo in SOME applications is an absolute reflection on management decisions and not a reflection on battery capability.

Exactly. The same Tesla 3 year 52kwh pack can be turned into a 8 year Rav4 40 kwh pack. Both would cost upward of $25K. Afterall GM turned a 16kwh pack into a 8 kwh pack for Volt.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

From a viewpoint of someone that works with lithium cells, builds and tests packs, and assembles a number of battery management systems, I really, really want to address something.

Most people think that "lithium ion" means laptops and cell phones. Yes - cell phones and other portable devices use lithium cobalt and/or lithium polymer cells. Yes - when allowed to run to their voltage limits, when charged with very cheap, dumb chargers, and when 'planned obsolescence' allows a company to add to their revenue stream selling replacement batteries, these cells can be configured to work for a year.

But the exact same cells CAN be used and managed to provide many years of life! It's the difference between 500 charge cycles and 2000 cycles.

The 1 year life of Li-ion and LiPo in SOME applications is an absolute reflection on management decisions and not a reflection on battery capability.

agreed 100%. take NiMH. Toyota is now legendary in proving that the chemistry can go the distance. but i also use them in my RC cars. the race is 5 minutes long, so longevity is not the issue. so we charge them just before the race and rely on the "float" charge to give us that extra speed and power, granted, it will last only the first few minutes of the race and the battery is good for about 50 recharges. but then again, its all about what we want from the battery.

i am getting a new cellphone on Monday, i am going to see if charging it differently will make a difference. i plan to never fully charge it or fully discharge it. i will see what happens when i maintain a charge level between 25-75%. my current phone,i fully charged every night and the battery has lost probably a good 30-40% of its capacity after about 10 months. i currently have significantly less than half its capacity left.

 

[AndyH]

How much did the Ed actually improve ? 620wh/L to 675wh/L or less than 10%.

So...we can drive will full range for 4 years. Then we start a maintenance routine of adding 1/4 tablet to the battery box each year for the next 2 years, 1/2 a tablet for the next 2...


http://www.cialis.com

[sorry :lol: ]

 

[TimeHorse]

So ... would I pay $3,300 now (10%) to Nissan and they guarantee an equivalent performance (100 miles) in 7 years ?

That's basically what I suggested in the comment area of the Battery survey, although I came upon $5000 as an estimate of a gamble if the battery pack on the LEAF now costs $20,000 that it could become much cheaper and there's a chance Nissan could make money on this, as well as loose money if the price doesn't decrease enough. Like an insurance policy. With the 7 year, 100,000 mi warranty they have set up, this is less of an issue, but I personally hope to be driving my LEAF for a decade and perhaps even into the 2020's.