This --> <-- close to ordering a Leaf but have to ask

[GRA]

I'm not expecting airplanes, ships, trains, long-haul trucks and other vehicles that business depends on to electrify.

I'd like the trains to electrify. And while you're at it, triple their speed, and connect to light rail in urban areas so you can go places without always having to take a car. Start with airports and stadiums. <snip>

This is starting to happen. U.S. locomotives have been D-E for decades, but there are now some switching engines that are D-E hybrids. That process will continue, and as fuel prices rise electrification of main lines will also.

 

[mkjayakumar]

- 150 mile range
- 15 minute fill ups
- couple of quick chargers in every other gas station

is all that is needed for this to go mainstream.

 

[Sc0rPs]

Lithium-ion batteries severly outperform NiMH batteries. Lithium-ion have greater capacity for lower weight and can discharge at a faster rate when needed (i.e. when accelerating). NiMH batteries don't have as much energy desnsity so to get the same amount of kWh you would need a heavier pack, probably about 50% heavier. And with the added weight, the range would drop.

In comparison to other specs besides the energy density: NiMH have a stronger energy loss than Li-ion at high temperatures. This is one of the reasons the original EV1 in arizona still used lead acid vs the NiMH it california. NiMH has a greater energy loss when sitting idle. While this energy drain has been improved, Li-ions are superior at maintaining a charge when not in use. Finally, NiMH recharges slower. You can recharge faster, but you risk greater damage to the battery cells, shortening the life span. Li-ion has no issues with charging at a faster rate.

Granted, with improvements and tweaking the battery cells, NiMH can overcome many of the problems, but it will still have less power density than Li-ions. Li-ions are just, in every way, better. Although if you want greater capacity you could use Silver-Zinc batteries (these are the same batteries used in the apollo missions) since, so far, these have the greatest power density. Unfortunately, the life of these batteries are extremely poor as artifacts build up and prevent recharging in just a few cycles on the original ones. But who knows, they could solve that problem and replace Li-ion batteries.

NiMH has already overcome many of those problems, you can purchase LSD (low self discharge) NiMH rechargeables now. However, and trying to avoid any conspiracy stuff here, the main point is that as lithium degrades pretty much the moment it is made what kind of warranties do we have for the battery?

Also in case it was missed, taking a Leaf for a test drive on the weekend.

 

[kubel]

That's why I also asked WHY.

I don't disagree with anything you said. But I think we are kidding ourselves if we say that the benefits of electric drive outweigh the drawbacks for most drivers. Don't get me wrong- there's room to fix misconceptions and myths. But that will only resolve so many issues. There are still very real limitations and very real sacrifices involved with owning an electric cars that people just don't feel comfortable accepting just yet.

You and I could probably spend an hour listing all of the benefits of electric drive, and to us, they are very very important. But to the majority of drivers, those benefits do not make up for the fact that this car has a limited range and takes an extremely long time to recharge compared to gas. I live in a state with 0 DC quick chargers. 0. Even with charging infrastructure in every state and at every employer and every business- there are still some challenges to overcome- and they all are directly related to the batteries.

Short of a drastic increase in gas prices, I don't see electric going "mainstream" soon without battery improvements. I think there's a better chance if we have electric-dominant plugin hybrids. I was very much a fan of the Volt from the very beginning for this reason. Not so much anymore, for me at least. But I think more Americans can accept cars like the Volt over cars like the LEAF.

 

[jackal]

What range do you think is necessary for BEVs to go mainstream (and why?)

I think its a wrong question. Having a 300 mile range at $100K will not be make it main stream. So it's not a question of what range..but what price for the range. Currently, its about a $10,000 premium for 100 miles range. Me thinks once the price goes down to $5,000 for 100 miles, EVs would gain traction.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

- 150 mile range
- 15 minute fill ups
- couple of quick chargers in every other gas station

is all that is needed for this to go mainstream.

I doubt there is a specific definition of "mainstream", or some level of cost/performance that must be met for specific levels, but rather a spectrum of improved levels of increased range, decreased charging times, lower price, and increased infrastructure that picks up more buyers at each step. But if you could get 500 mile range, overnight recharging, and sell the car for $20k you've probably got most everyone, except for the Audi owners who are apparently so in love with the engine sound they will never be plucked from their ICE-mobiles.

 

[lpickup]

I'd like the trains to electrify. And while you're at it, triple their speed, and connect to light rail in urban areas so you can go places without always having to take a car. Start with airports and stadiums.

I'd like to see that as well, although I was really talking about long-distance freight trains, as it related to "our economy depending on it". Unfortunately in this country today, our economy does not even remotely depend on passenger rail.

 

[lpickup]

Adoption will be driven by both range and cost. The greater the range the greater the flexibility, and the less need for pre-planning. Assuming that battery prices come down significantly, I think the breakpoints will be as follows:

100 mile worst-case range: 0.5-1.0% of vehicles sold.
150 miles worst-case range: 1-5% of vehicles sold (i.e. similar to hybrids, and dependent on fuel prices staying at or above $4/gal.)
225 miles worst-case range: significant %, perhaps as much as 25-50%.
300+ miles worst-case range:Virtually all light duty private vehicles will be BEVs.

I was going to line up your numbers with percentages of people whose daily driving needs would be met by those various breakpoints, but the numbers are so ridiculously close to 100% it would not be meaningful anyway. We hit the 90% mark at 20 miles, 95% mark at 30 miles and by the time you get up to 100 miles it's well over 99% of trips could be met with a BEV100 vehicle (well, my own experience shows is that about once per month I need to take the ICE vehicle instead of the LEAF--this is about a 97% figure, and that's just me). Here's a great article on this very topic: How far do we drive?

Now I get the fact that people are always going to want more just in case. I've seen plenty of people hold out for the 6.6kW charger and most will just charge at home while they sleep anyway, in 3 hours instead of 6. Same people that will buy a 32GB iPhone and have 24GB of free space on it. I also understand that sometimes we need to plan for worst-case scenarios. So yeah, maybe 3% of the time I need a longer range than the LEAF allows. If I didn't have a second gas or hybrid vehicle, I would be stuck. So maybe in that case I need to get a 200 mile or 300 mile vehicle. Or maybe not. As an example, about once a year I need to do something that requires a pickup truck. Does that mean I need to buy a pickup truck to have on hand for that one time a year? In my case, the answer is no. I'll either borrow one, rent one, or pay someone to deliver whatever it is I need to haul. Maybe once every year or two I need to go on a trip with 8 people with lots of luggage. Do I buy a 8-12 passenger van just so I can meet this yearly need and then suffer the reduced mileage for the other 364 days of the year? No. I'll rent a van for that one trip. Even in the case of single car families you can do a similar analysis: how many times a year will I exceed the capabilities of an X-mile BEV. What will be cost differential for upgrading to a 2X or 3X-mile BEV and is it less expensive to just get that higher mileage BEV in the first place, or is it more cost effective to just rent an alternate vehicle for those special occasions.

For some, it's going to make more sense to just buy the higher range vehicle. I think you've mentioned, for example that you're a single vehicle urban dweller that frequently takes long trips out of the city. It would not be worth it to you to have to rent of find alternative transportation all the time. But for multi-vehicle owners that have less frequently long range needs, that will probably not be the case.

Now that may sound like a lot of work for people to figure out. But, there are apps and tools out there to make it easy. For example, see this thread about an app that does allow you to compare different vehicles and battery profiles side by side: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7581

So in the end, the actual breakouts of vehicles sold in each of those categories is going to come down to several factors:

1) The cost differential between them. If the 225 mile version is significantly more expensive than the 150 or 100 mile versions so the economics don't work out, then people will be careful to crunch the numbers beforehand. If there is little difference, then yes, people will probably just go for the extended range.
2) Availability of quick charging facilities. If these are plentiful, most people will feel more comfortable with the lower range vehicles. If they are not, it will favor the higher range vehicles.

I do think that once people start getting experience with cars such as the LEAF and really do find out that most driving needs are met with the 100 mile range, and word spreads that people will be more comfortable with the lower end of this range (assuming that battery range doesn't immediately improve) that the lower end will be viewed as a very viable range point, and I would be willing to bet that the percentages will be higher than what you've shown.

 

[lpickup]

what kind of warranties do we have for the battery?

8 years/100K miles. That was enough for me to shift from lease to buy (plus the fact that the batteries are very modular and could be replaced on an individual cell basis should there be individual fallout). With all the miles we are putting on the car now, we're definitely going to hit the 100K mark before the 8 year mark!

 

[TomT]

One thing that does not seem to be taken in to consideration much is that in many locales, the need for a larger battery is driven by the need to use heat and to drive in frequently inclement weather, both of which rob range... Thus a real-world 75 mile car - which is what the Leaf is for most people, not 100 miles - can quickly become only a 40 mile car...

I do think that once people start getting experience with cars such as the LEAF and really do find out that most driving needs are met with the 100 mile range, and word spreads that people will be more comfortable with the lower end of this range (assuming that battery range doesn't immediately improve) that the lower end will be viewed as a very viable range point, and I would be willing to bet that the percentages will be higher than what you've shown.

 

[Pipcecil]

NiMH has already overcome many of those problems, you can purchase LSD (low self discharge) NiMH rechargeables now. However, and trying to avoid any conspiracy stuff here, the main point is that as lithium degrades pretty much the moment it is made what kind of warranties do we have for the battery?

Also in case it was missed, taking a Leaf for a test drive on the weekend.

NiMH has overcome alot of the problems from its original invention, especially on the low self discharge. And yes, as many mentioned Li-ion batteries start to degrade the second they come off the factory floor. But there is still some things to think about:

1) Not all Li-ion batteries are equal. Your iPod battery many only last 2 years while your power tools are maybe 4+. Thats even with the same chemistry most times! You can easily design Li-ion to last longer from self degredation due to time, but it cost money, which is why EV car batteries are so expensive. In my opinion the slow degredation of Li-ion versus NiMH non-degredation but higher degredation due to heat most likely will equal itself out.

2) Despite all the short comings of Li-ion, they are 50% greater in overal energy density. That alone beats anything else NiMH can offer. Top it with fast charge/discharge capabilities and it makes NiMH look like the original wet cell lead acid batteries from long ago.

In the end, you need what gravametric energy density (wh/kg) to be high (lighter) and volumetic density (wh/L)to be higher (smaller). Li-ion in comparison to NiMH (it depends A LOT on the type of Li-ion chemistry they vary), Li-ion has 100% better wh/kg which means about half the weight, and about 30-50% better at wh/L meaning a reduction in size by about 25%. So, easily, you can get a Li-ion with the same amount of kWh with half the wait and 25% of the size. Keep the same size and weight and you get more capacity. That alone makes it worth every penny over NiMH. Gets some chemical engineers in there to extend the life of the battery and vola! Battery for an EV.

 

[Sc0rPs]

NiMH has already overcome many of those problems, you can purchase LSD (low self discharge) NiMH rechargeables now. However, and trying to avoid any conspiracy stuff here, the main point is that as lithium degrades pretty much the moment it is made what kind of warranties do we have for the battery?

Also in case it was missed, taking a Leaf for a test drive on the weekend.

NiMH has overcome alot of the problems from its original invention, especially on the low self discharge. And yes, as many mentioned Li-ion batteries start to degrade the second they come off the factory floor. But there is still some things to think about:

1) Not all Li-ion batteries are equal. Your iPod battery many only last 2 years while your power tools are maybe 4+. Thats even with the same chemistry most times! You can easily design Li-ion to last longer from self degredation due to time, but it cost money, which is why EV car batteries are so expensive. In my opinion the slow degredation of Li-ion versus NiMH non-degredation but higher degredation due to heat most likely will equal itself out.

2) Despite all the short comings of Li-ion, they are 50% greater in overal energy density. That alone beats anything else NiMH can offer. Top it with fast charge/discharge capabilities and it makes NiMH look like the original wet cell lead acid batteries from long ago.

In the end, you need what gravametric energy density (wh/kg) to be high (lighter) and volumetic density (wh/L)to be higher (smaller). Li-ion in comparison to NiMH (it depends A LOT on the type of Li-ion chemistry they vary), Li-ion has 100% better wh/kg which means about half the weight, and about 30-50% better at wh/L meaning a reduction in size by about 25%. So, easily, you can get a Li-ion with the same amount of kWh with half the wait and 25% of the size. Keep the same size and weight and you get more capacity. That alone makes it worth every penny over NiMH. Gets some chemical engineers in there to extend the life of the battery and vola! Battery for an EV.

You make some good points, however as mentioned the real EV applications of NiMH has shown zero degradation with well over 150k miles on them, then the range provided by them is 150 miles. Then few years later Oshinsky introduces a NiMH pack doing 300+ miles on a charge in a vehicle which should take care of most people's 'range anxiety'. Never got that, it's not like gas vehicles were unlimited either...

So it does come down to size, and I believe it was 15% and not 50% capacity difference in favor of lithium, however the real win comes down to how soon you need to replace them. If the lithium dies even after 10 years that's quite the expensive replacement, plus evironment unfriendly chemistry of the dead batteries to be recycled. As opposed to environmentally friendly NiMH using older generation tech but still going at 100% after about 14 years now.

That is my primary concern, I want the best battery for an EV and worried I will need to replace the lithium ones every 5 - 10 years.

However I decided to go for it, and probably place my ordering this weekend. I figure when the lithiums do go south I can replace with NiMH... increase the range.

I'm in Canada, the cost of a Leaf is right below 39k, while in the US is 34k. I'll have to see if I buy one from the states will the incentives still apply, or will the dealer match the price...

 

[lpickup]

I'll have to see if I buy one from the states will the incentives still apply, or will the dealer match the price...

The main incentive ($7500) is an income tax credit, not a rebate, so unless you pay US taxes for some reason, unfortunately they would not apply to you.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I'll have to see if I buy one from the states will the incentives still apply, or will the dealer match the price...

The main incentive ($7500) is an income tax credit, not a rebate, so unless you pay US taxes for some reason, unfortunately they would not apply to you.

Or he leases the car... Voila, USA Federal tax credit.

 

[GRA]

That's why I also asked WHY.

I don't disagree with anything you said. But I think we are kidding ourselves if we say that the benefits of electric drive outweigh the drawbacks for most drivers. Don't get me wrong- there's room to fix misconceptions and myths. But that will only resolve so many issues. There are still very real limitations and very real sacrifices involved with owning an electric cars that people just don't feel comfortable accepting just yet.

You and I could probably spend an hour listing all of the benefits of electric drive, and to us, they are very very important. But to the majority of drivers, those benefits do not make up for the fact that this car has a limited range and takes an extremely long time to recharge compared to gas. I live in a state with 0 DC quick chargers. 0. Even with charging infrastructure in every state and at every employer and every business- there are still some challenges to overcome- and they all are directly related to the batteries.

Short of a drastic increase in gas prices, I don't see electric going "mainstream" soon without battery improvements. I think there's a better chance if we have electric-dominant plugin hybrids. I was very much a fan of the Volt from the very beginning for this reason. Not so much anymore, for me at least. But I think more Americans can accept cars like the Volt over cars like the LEAF.

I agree, PHEVs will be the way we transition the mainstream into BEVs. Once they get comfortable plugging in and find out how rarely they need to use the gas engine, it will be much easier to get them to make their next car a BEV with a longer range (and the charging infrastructure will be more robust by then).

 

[GRA]

You'll note that I specified "worst-case range". [Edit: I inadvertently left a few items out of the following list. I've added them in Bold]

For me, that means high-speed freeway cruising at 30 deg. F., battery at 80% capacity(due to age and/or QCing), 10% range reserve, MGVW, HVAC, lights and wipers on, No pre-heating or cooling. At colder temps people will be driving more slowly but using more heat/defrost.

One thing that does not seem to be taken in to consideration much is that in many locales, the need for a larger battery is driven by the need to use heat and to drive in frequently inclement weather, both of which rob range... Thus a real-world 75 mile car - which is what the Leaf is for most people, not 100 miles - can quickly become only a 40 mile car...

I do think that once people start getting experience with cars such as the LEAF and really do find out that most driving needs are met with the 100 mile range, and word spreads that people will be more comfortable with the lower end of this range (assuming that battery range doesn't immediately improve) that the lower end will be viewed as a very viable range point, and I would be willing to bet that the percentages will be higher than what you've shown.

 

[GRA]

Adoption will be driven by both range and cost. The greater the range the greater the flexibility, and the less need for pre-planning. Assuming that battery prices come down significantly, I think the breakpoints will be as follows:

100 mile worst-case range: 0.5-1.0% of vehicles sold.
150 miles worst-case range: 1-5% of vehicles sold (i.e. similar to hybrids, and dependent on fuel prices staying at or above $4/gal.)
225 miles worst-case range: significant %, perhaps as much as 25-50%.
300+ miles worst-case range:Virtually all light duty private vehicles will be BEVs.

I was going to line up your numbers with percentages of people whose daily driving needs would be met by those various breakpoints, but the numbers are so ridiculously close to 100% it would not be meaningful anyway. We hit the 90% mark at 20 miles, 95% mark at 30 miles and by the time you get up to 100 miles it's well over 99% of trips could be met with a BEV100 vehicle (well, my own experience shows is that about once per month I need to take the ICE vehicle instead of the LEAF--this is about a 97% figure, and that's just me). Here's a great article on this very topic: How far do we drive?

Now I get the fact that people are always going to want more just in case. I've seen plenty of people hold out for the 6.6kW charger and most will just charge at home while they sleep anyway, in 3 hours instead of 6. Same people that will buy a 32GB iPhone and have 24GB of free space on it. I also understand that sometimes we need to plan for worst-case scenarios. So yeah, maybe 3% of the time I need a longer range than the LEAF allows. If I didn't have a second gas or hybrid vehicle, I would be stuck. So maybe in that case I need to get a 200 mile or 300 mile vehicle. Or maybe not. As an example, about once a year I need to do something that requires a pickup truck. Does that mean I need to buy a pickup truck to have on hand for that one time a year? In my case, the answer is no. I'll either borrow one, rent one, or pay someone to deliver whatever it is I need to haul. Maybe once every year or two I need to go on a trip with 8 people with lots of luggage. Do I buy a 8-12 passenger van just so I can meet this yearly need and then suffer the reduced mileage for the other 364 days of the year? No. I'll rent a van for that one trip. Even in the case of single car families you can do a similar analysis: how many times a year will I exceed the capabilities of an X-mile BEV. What will be cost differential for upgrading to a 2X or 3X-mile BEV and is it less expensive to just get that higher mileage BEV in the first place, or is it more cost effective to just rent an alternate vehicle for those special occasions.

For some, it's going to make more sense to just buy the higher range vehicle. I think you've mentioned, for example that you're a single vehicle urban dweller that frequently takes long trips out of the city. It would not be worth it to you to have to rent of find alternative transportation all the time. But for multi-vehicle owners that have less frequently long range needs, that will probably not be the case.

Now that may sound like a lot of work for people to figure out. But, there are apps and tools out there to make it easy. For example, see this thread about an app that does allow you to compare different vehicles and battery profiles side by side: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7581

So in the end, the actual breakouts of vehicles sold in each of those categories is going to come down to several factors:

1) The cost differential between them. If the 225 mile version is significantly more expensive than the 150 or 100 mile versions so the economics don't work out, then people will be careful to crunch the numbers beforehand. If there is little difference, then yes, people will probably just go for the extended range.
2) Availability of quick charging facilities. If these are plentiful, most people will feel more comfortable with the lower range vehicles. If they are not, it will favor the higher range vehicles.

I do think that once people start getting experience with cars such as the LEAF and really do find out that most driving needs are met with the 100 mile range, and word spreads that people will be more comfortable with the lower end of this range (assuming that battery range doesn't immediately improve) that the lower end will be viewed as a very viable range point, and I would be willing to bet that the percentages will be higher than what you've shown.

Lance, I agree with everything you've written here, indeed I've said much the same myself in other threads. But my list is only about 50% based on people's actual range needs, and 50% on their perceived range needs. Most people aren't willing to spend as much (any) time quantifying them, as opposed to the more detail-oriented types that frequent this forum.

For instance, I know that a 100 mile worst-case range would meet my minimum requirements (provided convenient charging infrastructure existed at my destination, which is not currently the case). 150 miles of range would probably allow me to get to Lake Tahoe or Yosemite with just one QC; 225 miles would definitely allow it, and 300 miles might allow me to do it non-stop (ranges are 175-207 miles, but 6-10,000 feet of elevation gain), which I can easily do in my ICE. But someone like Tony, you or me who has this kind of knowledge at their fingertips or is willing to figure it out, is not representative of the mainstream auto buyer.

Even in this forum, we get people who ask questions about the Leaf that could be easily answered by reading the manual. But for every geek like me who reads the manual cover to cover when they buy a car (nowadays, with manuals on the web you can do this before you buy), there are 100 or 1,000 people who've never opened it.

That's why I agree with Kubel that PHEVs will be used to make the transition. HEVs have become mainstream because they require the average owner to make no change in their normal routine, don't generate range anxiety, and require no infrastructure changes by the owner. PHEVs are the next baby step, with the sole addition of allowing you to plug them in if you choose; it appears that at least some California PiP buyers don't have any intention of doing so, being willing to pay the premium just to get the HOV stickers. But most owners will plug them in, because it's saving them money and providing other benefits. Indeed, without some artificial advantage like the HOV stickers, you'd be an idiot to pay the premium for a PHEV instead of an HEV and not plug it in.

 

[lpickup]

Lance, I agree with everything you've written here, indeed I've said much the same myself in other threads. But my list is only about 50% based on people's actual range needs, and 50% on their perceived range needs. Most people aren't willing to spend as much (any) time quantifying them, as opposed to the more detail-oriented types that frequent this forum.

We're pretty much on the same page. But I was answering the question: what would it take for a BEV to become mainstream. There are two options: count on battery breakthroughs and put bigger capacity batteries into the vehicles; or change people's perceptions.

I think there is room to make headway in both areas. But as you've pointed out (and I agree with), the battery path will take time and $$$. The perception route is free (although maybe impossible? :lol: ) Anyway, it's been a good discussion!

 

[Pipcecil]

You make some good points, however as mentioned the real EV applications of NiMH has shown zero degradation with well over 150k miles on them, then the range provided by them is 150 miles. Then few years later Oshinsky introduces a NiMH pack doing 300+ miles on a charge in a vehicle which should take care of most people's 'range anxiety'. Never got that, it's not like gas vehicles were unlimited either...

So it does come down to size, and I believe it was 15% and not 50% capacity difference in favor of lithium, however the real win comes down to how soon you need to replace them. If the lithium dies even after 10 years that's quite the expensive replacement, plus evironment unfriendly chemistry of the dead batteries to be recycled. As opposed to environmentally friendly NiMH using older generation tech but still going at 100% after about 14 years now.

That is my primary concern, I want the best battery for an EV and worried I will need to replace the lithium ones every 5 - 10 years.

However I decided to go for it, and probably place my ordering this weekend. I figure when the lithiums do go south I can replace with NiMH... increase the range.

I'm in Canada, the cost of a Leaf is right below 39k, while in the US is 34k. I'll have to see if I buy one from the states will the incentives still apply, or will the dealer match the price...

It will be interesting how long they engineered the batteries in the leaf (or other EVs) to last in years. Really, I am guessing 10+ I think we are all being very conservative and guessing they will die quite fast. As for the NiMH comparison, its not quite fair. You cannot compare say the EV1's range with NiMH or a Rav4's range to the Leaf. Smaller car, lighter weight, only 2 seater (the EV1), better aerodynamics (much to do with the car's size) and so few accessories/saftey improvements.

If you put the same size/weight NiMH in the leaf today, I bet your average range would be 50 vs 73 (using EPA numbers). Since the 90's the additional saftey features added increase car weight, and comforts such as better radios, homelink, etc. all increase weight as well. NiMH just doesn't have the energy density and range would suffer greatly. No one would buy a 50 mile range (epa) EV. I know for sure that the faster you charge a NiMH the shorter its life (you can easily cut your life in half). I would say it would definetely rule out Level 3 charging but I am unsure about the Level 2 usage, how much kWh charger could it take before the battery has fits. Li-ion really doesn't care how fast you put energy in it, only heat.

 

[TLeaf]

Since the 90's the additional saftey features added increase car weight, and comforts such as better radios, homelink, etc. all increase weight as well.

I found it somewhat surprising when I discovered that the Prius C weighs 700 pounds LESS than the LEAF.. As I recall, this is a little more than the weight of the entire battery pack, so I'm thinking that even the LEAF could stand to shave off a few pounds. I'd concede an extra 200 pounds for better build quality in the LEAF (how many people make that argument!), but that's still a fair bit of extra heft..

I would also add that I've seen plenty of NiMH batteries fail, sometimes in as few as 2,000 miles (Vectrix electric scooter) and certainly in timeframes less than 10 years even in properly designed applications. Proper cooling system design, system sizing for the application, good charge/maintenance control and vehicle usage all come into play when talking battery chemistries in an EV. I've so far been impressed with how well the batteries have held up in my LEAF and certainly expect them to be "functional" for me (at least 50 miles freeway range) until it's time for me to consider retiring in another 15 years..