TSLA corporate outlook

[Rebel44]

Lower numbers are not unexpected - everyone should knows that production was significanly lowered for a few weeks due to switch to producing cars with Autopilot2 HW.

 

[lorenfb]

As expected, Tesla missed the low end of their 2016 guidance (80k), I.e. only 76k.
That's not encouraging for a "growth company".

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

As expected, Tesla missed the low end of their 2016 guidance (80k), I.e. only 76k.
That's not encouraging for a "growth company".

They must have missed it by less than expected, as the stock is up.

76k in that price range is a lot of cars no matter how you slice it.

 

[Zythryn]

As expected, Tesla missed the low end of their 2016 guidance (80k), I.e. only 76k.
That's not encouraging for a "growth company".

They must have missed it by less than expected, as the stock is up.

76k in that price range is a lot of cars no matter how you slice it.

There were some people expecting a much larger miss.
Other factors may be that Tesla has about 6,000 cars in transit to customers. So while they missed on deliveries, they made it with production.

An analyst also gave them an upgrade today.

Although, if it keeps going up, it could even be a short squeeze. If enough people bet on the big miss some were forecasting, and then found only a small miss, they may be trying to cover those calls.

 

[lorenfb]

The 2016 Tesla details provide a better insight:

1. A Q4 production of about 25K and a delivery of about 22K WW resulted in an inventory
increase of about 3K. When one considers that the in-transit units rose about 1k unit over
Q3, the net inventory increase was about 2K units, i.e. unsold vehicles the result of
decreased demand.

2. Model S U.S. deliveries fell by about 1K in Q4 versus Q3 even with Tesla's promotions,
e.g. continued free SC. Q4 of 2016 deliveries of Model S versus Q4 of 2015 were basically
same, another indication of reduced overall Tesla demand.

 

[finman100]

keep spinning...

 

[mtndrew1]

Poor, poor Tesla, with only a 50.7% increase over 2015's deliveries. I mean since 2014, deliveries have only grown 141%. Absolutely tepid!

I sure hope someday they can turn into a "growth" company.

PS: Customer-bound 2170 cells began spitting out of the Nevada Gigafactory today, right on schedule. Model 3 packs begin assembling and aging in Q2. Maybe they could grow then?

 

[Firetruck41]

There are a few people who are disappointed that the news wasn't more disappointing.

 

[lorenfb]

keep spinning...

Speaking of spinning, waiting for the typical Elon spin today!

 

[finman100]

:lol: :mrgreen:

 

[lorenfb]

Another visit to the "feeding trough" for Elon?

Summary
Raising equity a few weeks before the filing of the annual report is extremely rare.
If history repeats itself, Tesla will raise equity in the next few days.
A potential $2B cash flow hit and 2017 capex needs explain why Tesla may choose to raise equity now.
It is extremely rare for an S&P 500 company to raise equity during the "blackout period", let alone before the filing of the annual report. Fundraising during this period comes with significant reputational and legal risks. Both the company and the underwriters risk damage to their reputations and could be liable to investors if the company subsequently reports disappointing results. However, Tesla has historically demonstrated a willingness to take these risks when it comes to raising capital.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4034484-deja-vu-will-tesla-raise-capital-next-week?source=email_rt_article_readmore&auth_param=1adagi:1c6skek:22d23afb1a22cbb721d3f6db450255cd&uprof=44&dr=1

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Elon Musk at the White House meeting of business leaders today... in a very prominent position no less. Add that to the stock approaching its old high suggests somebody thinks the business environment for Tesla may be more accomodative than preconceived notions suggest.

 

[GRA]

Via electrek:

Some Tesla Model 3 reservation holders claim to be canceling orders over Elon Musk’s link with Trump

https://electrek.co/2017/01/31/tesla-model-3-reservation-holders-canceling-orders-elon-musks-trump/

Seems to be pretty limited, at least at the moment.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Via electrek:

Some Tesla Model 3 reservation holders claim to be canceling orders over Elon Musk’s link with Trump

https://electrek.co/2017/01/31/tesla-model-3-reservation-holders-canceling-orders-elon-musks-trump/

Seems to be pretty limited, at least at the moment.

Seems pretty silly to me. I mean, if one is truly anti-Trump (particularly in environmental issues), wouldn't they be excited that someone from "their team" has made ties so close to the president?

 

[edatoakrun]

Elon Musk:

Activists should be pushing for more moderates to advise President, not fewer. How could having only extremists advise him possibly be good?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/06/elon-musk-says-activists-should-be-happy-that-hes-advising-president-trump.html

This may end badly for TSLA.

All evidence to date suggest trump is not very interested in advisers, and instead prefers collaborators.

 

[GRA]

Via electrek:

Some Tesla Model 3 reservation holders claim to be canceling orders over Elon Musk’s link with Trump

https://electrek.co/2017/01/31/tesla-model-3-reservation-holders-canceling-orders-elon-musks-trump/

Seems to be pretty limited, at least at the moment.

Seems pretty silly to me. I mean, if one is truly anti-Trump (particularly in environmental issues), wouldn't they be excited that someone from "their team" has made ties so close to the president?

I agree. I think Elon et al need to give it 6-12 months and see if they can have any positive effects or if this is just window dressing, before deciding whether to opt out. Although I'm skeptical that Donald Trump has the attention span to listen to most advice, even if he were inclined to take it, it's worth a try.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Here comes the UAW

http://www.investopedia.com/news/are-workers-unionizing-teslas-fremont-factory-tsla/

 

[GRA]

Here comes the UAW

http://www.investopedia.com/news/are-workers-unionizing-teslas-fremont-factory-tsla/

Good, wages are negotiable but workplace safety shouldn't be, and the amount of mandatory OT is ridiculous.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I suppose the reason for working people so many hours as opposed to hiring more people is to avoid paying more benefits.

 

[GRA]

I suppose the reason for working people so many hours as opposed to hiring more people is to avoid paying more benefits.

That's exactly it. It's why most union contracts have limits on mandatory OT (aside from the fact that not everyone wants to work 12-16 hours day - that was the reason behind the 8 hour day/40 hour work week:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-hour_day#United_States

When I was younger and working as a Teamster warehouseman, I often used to work a 14.5-15 hour shift once a week, as the OT was great. I also used to work a graveyard shift on Sunday night, then double back and work swing the rest of the week. That got old pretty fast, as all you're doing is eating, sleeping and working.