Volkswagen Group Massive Emissions Fraud Scheme

[Stoaty]

This is mind boggling. Don't they have a legal department or these things were never clarified with the lawyers ? Fairly sure this must have been cleared by some exec high up.

You mean some soon to be ex-high up exec?

 

[cwerdna]

VW aside, the current generation of clean diesels with urea injection from BMW, MB and some others are just that, very clean; as much so as a modern gas engine...

Back on topic - the alt title for this thread would be - dirty little secret of clean diesel.

Well before this scandal, the thing that has annoyed me for ages about the usage of the term "clean diesel" is its greenwashing. It annoyed us Prius drivers (Gen 2 and beyond liftbacks were classified as AT-PZEV). The "clean" part is supposed to refer doing better on smog forming emissions (http://driveclean.ca.gov/Know_the_Rating/Understand_the_Smog_Rating.php) than their "non-clean" versions.

If you go to http://driveclean.ca.gov/searchresults_by_tech.php?tech=45 and go thru the model years, none of them get a smog rating better than 6/10 (and those scores include the cheating on the Audi/VW vehicles).

If you go to http://driveclean.ca.gov/Search_and_Explore/Smog_Rating.php and select 9/10, 8/10 and 7/10, you'll find PLENTY of gasoline powered vehicles scoring 7 to 9 out of 10. Should they be called "clean gasoline" vehicles then? (10/10 is for ZEVs e.g. electric vehicles).

More details on the smog ratings and their limits at http://www3.epa.gov/greenvehicles/you/smog.htm and the PDF at the bottom along with http://driveclean.ca.gov/Know_the_Rating/Understand_the_Smog_Rating.php. It actually includes other limits, listed at http://www3.epa.gov/greenvehicles/documents/420f13022.pdf.

Health effects are describe at many places such as http://www.aqmd.gov/home/library/public-information/publications/smog-and-health-historical-info.

For a vehicle to only score a 6/10 NMOG + NOx (g/mile) allowed is 0.110 to 0.125.

I counted dozens of 2015 vehicles at http://driveclean.ca.gov/searchresults_by_smog.php?smog_slider_value=9&x=21&y=18 that scored 9/10 where the limit is 0.020 to 0.030.

If you compare the upper the bounds, the allowable amount for a 6/10 for 9/10 is ~4.17 times. That's a lot! That's kinda crappy that a vehicle could have 4x the smog impact vs. another.

And, w/the cheating, I've seeing claims that NOx emissions are 10 to 40 times the EPA limits. So, if it were only 10x whats allowed for 6/10 score, that likely means a single cheater VW/Audi TDI is having the NOx impact of ~41 cars that score 9/10.

One can see these ratings via http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=21893&id=22016&id=35556&id=35433&#tab2. Select Alabama and then California for State of purchase at the bottom and look at the EPA Smog Rating. The 06 Jetta diesel is the non-"clean diesel" getting 1/10 in AL. The '15 Jetta diesel gets 6/10 for California and 5/10 for AL.

Not sure why California ratings are broken for the non-"clean diesels" I found. They used to work, long ago.

 

[Stoaty]

VW Group sets aside $7.2 billion (so far) to cover the anticipated cost of resolving its diesel emissions cheating scandal:

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-sets-aside-7-2-billion-pay-emissions-cheating-scandal-n431456

 

[walterbays]

I read speculation that regulators worldwide would scrutinize all diesels much more closely in emissions testing which would be costly. The cars will be heavier, considerably more expensive, and require more maintenance from adding equipment like the urea injectors. They'll have less power and torque, be slower, and get worse MPG. All together that analyst thought it meant the end of diesel passenger cars in the US, and possibly worldwide. And good riddance.

 

[TomT]

Yes, but then again again, there are SO many things that annoy so many Prius drivers... :lol:

It annoyed us Prius drivers (Gen 2 and beyond liftbacks were classified as AT-PZEV).

 

[edatoakrun]

dailykanban ran a special section today linking ~30 reports on this subject.

Go to the link below, for all the descriptions and links:

Wednesday morning car news roundup, September 23, 2015

September 23, 2015 By Bertel Schmitt


Daily Diesel Debacle Roundup

http://dailykanban.com/2015/09/wednesday-morning-car-news-roundup-september-23-2015/

One story there indicates VW is sparing no expense as it lawyers up.

Volkswagen hires law firm that defended BP after oil spill


September 23, 2015 - 6:39 am ET

NEWARK, N.J. (Bloomberg) -- Volkswagen AG has hired the U.S. law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP to help it deal with the widening scandal over the carmaker’s faked pollution controls, according to a company spokeswoman.

Kirkland led BP Plc’s defense in the criminal investigation of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil disaster that claimed 11 lives and caused the worst offshore spill in U.S. history, according to the firm’s website. Kirkland spokeswoman Olivia Clarke declined to comment on the Volkswagen hiring.

VW said as many as 11 million cars are affected and that it’s setting aside at least 6.5 billion euros for the matter....

In November 2012, BP agreed to plead guilty to 14 criminal counts, including 11 for felony manslaughter, and pay $4 billion to resolve the criminal case. BP agreed in July to pay a record $18.7 billion to settle all federal and state civil claims.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150923/OEM01/150929934/volkswagen-hires-law-firm-that-defended-bp-after-oil-spill?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+autonews%2FBreakingNews+%28Automotive+News+Breaking+News+Feed%29

 

[TomT]

They have no choice but to do so. They would be even bigger fools if they did not...

Meanwhile, the CEO of VW resigned over the emission lies. But Toyota had gas pedal and GM ignition switch issues which killed people and were initially covered up, and yet their CEOs never resigned and they both received paltry fines...

One story there indicates VW is sparing no expense as it lawyers up.

 

[edatoakrun]

...the CEO of VW resigned over the emission lies. But Toyota had gas pedal and GM ignition switch issues which killed people and were initially covered up, and yet their CEOs never resigned and they both received paltry fines...

One story there indicates VW is sparing no expense as it lawyers up.

If the actual emissions from VW diesels are anywhere near the levels that have been reported, they have probably killed far more people than the issues you cite at GM and Toyota.

 

[vwDavid]

Dam I was hoping for a diesel PHEV from VW as my Leaf companion. I guess that's off the table now...need towing capacity. Been a passionate VW owner for nearly 20 years. What a bummer.

 

[TomT]

My guess is that it will turn out that the levels are not nearly as exorbitant as the doomsayers are claiming... And I seriously doubt that would be true regardless... Ships, airplanes and heavy diesels are far more significant...

If the actual emissions from VW diesels are anywhere near the levels that have been reported, they have probably killed far more people than the issues you cite at GM and Toyota.

 

[Valdemar]

My prognosis is as lawyers get busy this story will get played down over time, VW will come out with a fix of sorts, EPA will get its check which will be nowhere close to $18b, and everything will be back to normal. Just business.

 

[finman100]

In an ideal "green" world, I'd like to see ALL diesels investigated. And yes I mean the big machines that pollute SOOOOO much more (cargo ships, large trucks, heck, even semi's.) But are also needed to make our lives happen. That part I get. Now is the time to REALLY look at alternatives. I mean, not just FIX the emissions, but seriously look to something that isn't allowed black soot in our blue skies. just sayin'.

Oil spills and the whole fracking debacle got me from a Prius to a Leaf. And I shouldn't even care about the future since I have no kids! I just can't fathom those producing the next-generation (people, not products, haha) would want a diesel to be their future.

 

[LKK]

Wouldn't the fix be as simple as reflashing the computer to remove the bypass software so the car can only run on the legal software? If such a simple fix is possible owners should not be allowed to renew their registration until after the new software has been installed. Pretty simple but I suspect owners would be unhappy as this could result in worse fuel economy, worse performance and lower resale value. As such, I think these owners are due some compensation.

 

[GRA]

Wouldn't the fix be as simple as reflashing the computer to remove the bypass software so the car can only run on the legal software? If such a simple fix is possible owners should not be allowed to renew their registration until after the new software has been installed. Pretty simple but I suspect owners would be unhappy as this could result in worse fuel economy, worse performance and lower resale value. As such, I think these owners are due some compensation.

I imagine that reflashing (assuming that's possible) will be the fix employed in the U.S., plus compensation. I'd think the latter will be based on the amount of performance/resale value lost, because what's the legal argument if the car now only gets its EPA mileage ratings instead of well over them? As to denying registration, AIUI that will be required, as the cars aren't compliant with the Clean Air Act now and thus can't be certified. There may need to be a law passed to allow for a year's delay or whatever until they can test and certify the fix, although it seems pretty straightforward if they're just going to run the engine all the time in the test configuration.

 

[TimLee]

... they have probably killed far more people than the issues you cite at GM and Toyota.

Data :?:
In my opinion there is less than a 2% chance the statement is correct.
But I will review data and reevaluate if you can provide.

 

[GRA]

A couple of articles on that subject:

VW Cheating Added Pollution of as Many as 19 Million U.S. Cars

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/vw-cheating-added-pollution-of-as-many-as-19-million-u-s-cars

How many deaths did Volkswagen's pollution scandal cause?
A back-of-the-envelope estimate.

http://www.vox.com/2015/9/23/9383641/volkswagen-scandal-pollution

. . . 1) How much extra pollution did Volkswagen cause? Bloomberg crunched some numbers and estimated that Volkswagen's 482,000 deceitful US cars may have added between 3,000 to 12,000 additional tons of nitrogen oxide pollution (NOx) to the atmosphere each year, assuming the cars were driven an average amount.**

Extrapolating that out to 11 million cars around the world, and we get somewhere between 68,000 and 274,000 additional tons of NOx emissions each year.

Now, there are tons of assumptions and simplifications embedded in these estimates, particularly around how many miles VW's cars were actually driven. But that's ... potentially a large amount of extra NOx pollution. At the high end globally, it's 25 times what a typical coal plant without emission controls puts out in a year.

2) How many deaths might that extra pollution have caused? Now, it's harder to calculate the precise health damage from all that extra NOx. Certain types of nitrogen oxides are hazardous both both because they can irritate the lungs and because they can help form harmful particulate pollution and smog. Higher smog levels have been linked to respiratory illnesses, increased asthma attacks, and even premature deaths (especially among the sick or elderly). The tricky part is that the exact levels of smog formation can vary from place to place, depending on sunlight, temperature, local winds, and other factors.

Still, we can get ballpark figures using data from the Environmental Protection Agency, which calculates that every ton of NOx leads to somewhere between 0.00085 and 0.0019 premature deaths. (Note that this only includes impacts from particulate formation, not smog effects, which are harder to quantify; see p. 40 of this report.)

Putting this all together, the estimated extra pollution from Volkswagen's US cars could be expected to lead to an additional 3 to 23 premature deaths each year. If we extrapolated worldwide to all 11 million vehicles, that would come to somewhere between 58 and 520 premature deaths annually.

Again, this is a crude, back-of-the-envelope exercise, not a peer-reviewed scientific analysis. Keep in mind all the caveats listed above. And criticisms and refinements are welcome. But if Volkswagen's deception really was responsible for that much additional pollution, it's safe to say it did noticeable damage to public health.

ISTM that VW's not on the hook for additional deaths/health issues of all 11 million cars, because only the U.S. (and maybe some European countries) have environmental regulations that strict. So, while the extra NOx is bad, it isn't illegal in many countries where these cars were sold. Anyway, taking the low estimate of an additional 3 U.S. deaths/yr, that works out to 20 extra deaths (6 2/3 yrs x 3) from 2009 to current. Taking the high estimate, that would be 153 extra deaths. And remember, these estimates only count direct effects of NOx, not the effects of more smog. So, "probably killed far more people" may be an exaggeration (GM deaths 124) or it may not, depending on the effects of smog.

 

[edatoakrun]

... they have probably killed far more people than the issues you cite at GM and Toyota.

Data :?:
In my opinion there is less than a 2% chance the statement is correct.
But I will review data and reevaluate if you can provide.

I imagine public inquiries and lawsuits will eventually produce various estimates of the number of deaths and serious illnesses VW's violations have caused, over and above the very large numbers of deaths and illnesses legal diesel emissions cause each year.

You are welcome to do your own search and produce your own estimate of deaths caused by VW's actions, if you like.

I believe this report summarizes the human health data the EPA (and other state and federal agencies) used in developing diesel emission standards:

Health Assessment Document for Diesel Engine Exhaust (Final 2002)

http://cfpub2.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=29060

Plenty of sensationalist reporting is now being done, covering the same topic.

Volkswagen emissions scandal: diesel "worse than the black plague" and responsible for 50,000 premature deaths a year in the UK alone


The rigging of diesel emissions by Volkswagen and other car manufacturers is a public health catastrophe “worse than the black plague” that is responsible for tens of thousands of premature deaths in the UK alone.

Simon Birkett from the Clean Air in London campaign has called for a royal commission to investigate carmakers' activities in the UK.

"Everybody has been affected by diesel emissions - we know it has killed people. Even the black plague only affected a finite number of people. There’s nothing on this scale in history to my knowledge," Birkett told the Independent.

Some 50,000 people in the UK suffer premature deaths because of nitrogen oxide emitted by diesel vehicles, estimates show.

Volkswagen is not the only car manufacturer whose cars emit more than they are legally allowed

A report published by the mayor of London's office in July said up to 10,000 deaths were attributable to long-term exposure to air pollution in London in one year of a total of 50,000 deaths. Each such death is likely to have been about 12 years early...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/volkswagen-emissions-scandal-diesel-worse-than-the-black-plague-and-responsible-for-50000-premature-10513845.html

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

would be nice to see the punishment fit the crime and I would petition for VW to install 10,000 dual head Quick chargers nationwide to start... but they will lose enough in public perception and the cost to fix the existing fleet that fines will be insignificant as always...

 

[timhebb]

Wired.com has published a surprising (to me, at least) explanation of just how the defeat device works, in terms of knowing when to deploy full emissions controls, and when to turn them off. Wired quotes a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Michigan, Anna Stefanopoulou.

The solution, rather than relying on deep software integration, is almost shockingly low-tech.

"Stefanopolou says computer sensors monitored the steering column. Under normal driving conditions, the column oscillates as the driver negotiates turns. But during emissions testing, the wheels of the car move, but the steering wheel doesn’t. That seems to have have been the signal for the “defeat device” to turn the catalytic scrubber up to full power, allowing the car to pass the test."

Who'd a thunk?

http://www.wired.com/?p=1854297

 

[TomT]

A slightly different take on the significance of the VW/Audi cheat...

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-emissions-standards-20150924-story.html