Wholesale value of the 2011 Leaf @Auction March 2018

[TomT]

Unfortunately, that also means he has 4 years on a defective battery in Texas heat...

you have 11,000 miles on your LEAF?
wow

 

[TimLee]

The June 2016 projection is staggering.
My 2011 will finish five years of service May 17, 2016.
For it to only bring $1,775 at auction or $2,375 at retail is an immense fall off the cliff drop in value, for a vehicle with around 35,000 miles on it that cost approximately $24,000 after state rebate and federal tax credit.

And it is unlikely to lose that fourth capacity bar and get a new battery.
Probably lose it at 5 1/2 years partly becsuse I treated the battery too well the first 2 1/2 years.

So to it will need a $6,000 battery replacement.
One really collosally defective product Nissan.

 

[edatoakrun]

The June 2016 projection is staggering.
My 2011 will finish five years of service May 17, 2016.
For it to only bring $1,775 at auction or $2,375 at retail is an immense fall off the cliff drop in value...

...and pure fantasy.

Look back on this thread at the way the future price estimates fluctuate wildly month-to month.

edatoakrun...Love the guessometer-like-performance of the future price projections.

I assume they just plug recent price fluctuations into a future timescale?

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8354&start=330" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[OrientExpress]

The Mk 1 LEAF in total was a pretty successful effort. There were more LEAFs sold in the first 2 years of production than all the electric vehicles that had been sold in the history of the world. It's still the #1 selling BEV world-wide.

Was it perfect at first? No. Could it be better? Yes, and it continues to get better as we see with each new version of the car.

But as with every 1st gen product, technology advancements soon makes that product unattractive, some to the point where they are unwanted at any price. Who wants an iPhone 1? Who wants an iPhone 6S?

 

[edatoakrun]

So, extrapolating from this, mine would sell at auction for around 5 grand!...

Since you're so unhappy, do you want to sell it?

How much would you want to ask for it?

 

[OrientExpress]

Here are this months wholesale actuals for a 2011 LEAF SL at auction. An interesting observation is that the number of cars going through auction has decreased significantly. This is mainly because the majority of 2011 cars were leased, and went through auction last year. That combined with those that bought their cars holding on to them has helped to somewhat stabilize their values.

And please, no snarky remarks about the car being worth $300 next year!

 

[Dyna]

Thanks for the update. This explains the $8k 2011s showing up on used car lots this month. I think prices are going to keep sinking though, when we're done with the summer driving season gas may be less then $2. Great time to pick up an EV.

 

[OrientExpress]

My pleasure.
I must say that despite the low prices, I really can't recommend buying a 2011 or 12 LEAF. And my advice at this point is not directed generally about the car, but rather the Gen-1 battery. The rest of the car is the most reliable trouble-free car that i have ever driven. This is the first car that I had ever had that had NO warranty claims on it for it's entire warranty.

So if you don't care about the battery, or the many inefficient ways it does thing s, then by all means get one.

But remember, the vast majority of 11-12 LEAFs on the road today have some amount of noticeable battery degradation. Eventually the battery will become unserviceable for a whole host of issues. A replacement battery will cost somewhere between $0 & $6000. And most 2011 LEAFs will be going out of battery warranty next year.

So, why not just spend that the $8K that you were going to spend plus the $6000 or less that you will need to spend on a replacement battery and get a 2013-15 LEAF instead? You will get so much more; A better Battery, a better HVAC, a better charger, a better motor, better software, a better ride & handling, a better body structure, A lot of betters!

And so it is, the life of a Version 1, rev 0 product.

 

[Dyna]

My pleasure.
So, why not just spend that the $8K that you were going to spend plus the $6000 or less that you will need to spend on a replacement battery and get a 2013-15 LEAF instead? You will get so much more; A better Battery, a better HVAC, a better charger, a better motor, better software, a better ride & handling, a better body structure, A lot of betters!

And so it is, the life of a Version 1, rev 0 product.

I'd never buy a 2011 with 10-12 bars, but there are a lot of them out there with 9 or fewer bars that will qualify for a free battery before the five years are up. $8k for a Leaf with a brand new battery seems like a steal to me!

 

[OrientExpress]

Yes, $8K w/battery is a deal, but only as long as the battery goes south in the next year or so.

So choose wisely.

 

[dhanson865]

My pleasure.
I must say that despite the low prices, I really can't recommend buying a 2011 or 12 LEAF. And my advice at this point is not directed generally about the car, but rather the Gen-1 battery. The rest of the car is the most reliable trouble-free car that i have ever driven. This is the first car that I had ever had that had NO warranty claims on it for it's entire warranty.

So if you don't care about the battery, or the many inefficient ways it does thing s, then by all means get one.

But remember, the vast majority of 11-12 LEAFs on the road today have some amount of noticeable battery degradation. Eventually the battery will become unserviceable for a whole host of issues. A replacement battery will cost somewhere between $0 & $6000. And most 2011 LEAFs will be going out of battery warranty next year.

So, why not just spend that the $8K that you were going to spend plus the $6000 or less that you will need to spend on a replacement battery and get a 2013-15 LEAF instead? You will get so much more; A better Battery, a better HVAC, a better charger, a better motor, better software, a better ride & handling, a better body structure, A lot of betters!

And so it is, the life of a Version 1, rev 0 product.

If you think you can buy a used 2015 or very late year 2014 at that price go for it but 2013 battery packs are degrading at roughly the same rate as 2012 packs did as far as I can tell.

The 2014 packs are mostly the same as the 2013 (rumor is some late 2014 leafs got the 2015 pack but we have no idea on how many or where the changeover started).

There is a fresh query in another thread from a user looking at a 2013 in San Jose with SOH of 90%. 1 bar loss happens at 85% and there are two 2011 Leafs in the wiki with the first bar lost around 22 to 36 months. The poster didn't give us date of manufacture so if we guess June then that car is around 24 months in and on track for losing the first bar within the first 36 months. Nothing impressive to me there.

I'm willing to say there might be a very slight improvement for a 2013 Leaf but I wouldn't pay any extra for the pack change.

In fact I just bought a 2012 SL with SOH of 83% earlier this year and it is down to 81% now. I have no regrets vs the data I'm seeing coming in for SOH on the 2013 Leafs discussed on mynissanleaf.com. At the time of purchase I got it for $8995 and the cheapest 2013 Leafs were several thousand more. If I could have found a 2013 with a higher SOH at a close enough price I would have payed more for higher SOH% but not because it was a 2013.

So in short

* don't pay more for 2013 vs 2012
* do pay more for SOH % if you need it and can trust it (beware of resets)

 

[TimLee]

... So, why not just spend that the $8K that you were going to spend plus the $6000 or less that you will need to spend on a replacement battery and get a 2013-15 LEAF instead? You will get so much more; A better Battery, a better HVAC, a better charger, a better motor, better software, a better ride & handling, a better body structure, A lot of betters!
...

I concur with faster 6 kW on board charger and heat pump heater being big improvements if you go with SV or SL.
Not much significant difference on the rest unless you get 2015 with heat resistant chemistry and there isn't any data to prove that yet.

2013 and 2014 battery had some minor tweaks.
Some rave about it being better.
But no one seems willing or able to present quantifiable data :|

 

[Dyna]

Here's a graph based on the posts in this thread.

 

[OrientExpress]

42 months yields about a 75% decrease in wholesale pricing. This is not unusual for a vehicle that is a first generation vehicle and has been superseded by a versions with significant improvements and has aged by 3 and a half years.

February 2012

July 2015

Despite this rock-bottom pricing, I cannot recommend purchase of a 2011 ~ 2012 LEAF any more than I could recommend purchasing an iPhone vs. an iPhone 4 or 5.

And lastly, I am confident that used 2014 LEAFs are available today in the $14 ~ $15K price range, that have all of the improvements noted, and will only get less expensive in the coming months. For the cost of a 2011~12 LEAF + battery changeout today, a superior 2014 ~ 2015 can be had with a better battery, and a longer battery and a manufacturer's warranty.

Current wholesale pricing for a 2014 LEAF SV

 

[TomT]

The best deal would likely be a 2011 or 2012 with a battery replacement with an E or later revision Lizard battery. Cheap, very reliable car, with (we hope) a better battery...

 

[Valdemar]

The best deal would likely be a 2011 or 2012 with a battery replacement with an E or later revision Lizard battery. Cheap, very reliable car, with (we hope) a better battery...

If the depreciation trend continues for the 2015 cars the best deal will be 2015 in 2016.

 

[TomT]

One of the reasons why I would never buy a new Leaf (versus leasing) unless I planned to keep it a VERY long time until it was just trash... Even then, it likely would not have a good ROI... I'm not sure that EVs (with the exception of Tesla) will be a good new purchase ROI choice for some time to come...

The best deal would likely be a 2011 or 2012 with a battery replacement with an E or later revision Lizard battery. Cheap, very reliable car, with (we hope) a better battery...

If the depreciation trend continues for the 2015 cars the best deal will be 2015 in 2016.

 

[Dyna]

42 months yields about a 50% decrease in wholesale pricing. This is not unusual for a vehicle that is a first generation vehicle and has been superseded by a versions with significant improvements and has aged by 3 and a half years.

I think it's more like a 75% decrease.

28,000-6,700=21,300

21,300/28,000=76.1%

 

[OrientExpress]

The best deal would likely be a 2011 or 2012 with a battery replacement with an E or later revision Lizard battery.

True, but very few cars that have this replacement will find their way into the resale market at this point in time.

 

[Valdemar]

One of the reasons why I would never buy a new Leaf (versus leasing) unless I planned to keep it a VERY long time until it was just trash... Even then, it likely would not have a good ROI... I'm not sure that EVs (with the exception of Tesla) will be a good new purchase ROI chose for some time to come...

The best deal would likely be a 2011 or 2012 with a battery replacement with an E or later revision Lizard battery. Cheap, very reliable car, with (we hope) a better battery...

If the depreciation trend continues for the 2015 cars the best deal will be 2015 in 2016.

Is 6 years a very long time? If the stars align after 6 years and 120,000 miles my 11 Leaf will cost me about $350/mo including the cost of charging it, it won't be trash but in need of a new battery for sure. I'll likely pay less overall than I would have for 2 consecutive 20,000 mile/year leases for an equivalent car.