Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

[jlv]

Neither the Tesla S or the Gen 2 LEAF are in production and available for sale yet.

I'm sure you meant your disparaging comment to be about the 3 rather than the S. And the statement is so bogus in regards to the 3 it just undercuts your credibility.

 

[jlv]

I test drove a Model X, and I will say if it's bullshit, that was some mighty fine bullshit I was driving!

There are no new Nissan Leafs for sale in my area. I'd wager lunch at David's Burgers nearby the SuperCharger in my city (Little Rock) that I will have my Model 3 that I will purchase for $36,000 (I'm optioning for blue instead of the free black color, so that's an extra $1,000) in my driveway before any of my local Nissan dealerships have any Gen 2 Leafs in stock.

I had a P90D X loaner for a day. Mighty fine indeed... I don't like those doors, but that is an incredible vehicle to drive.

However, on your bet: I definitely suspect there will be LEAF 2 generally at Nissan dealers before 3s become generally available, especially on the east coast. To me Nissan is a pedestrian auto manufacturer, but they do know how to make cars and get them out. While the 3 is in production and already being sold (unlike some claim above), Tesla has admitted it will take the rest of the year for them to trickle out here.

Update: I'll back-pedal and think this is a close call either way. My estimated delivery date for a 3 if I take the first production is Oct-Dec 2017. Nissan is only offering test drives of the LEAF 2 starting in October. Thus, it really it looks like either could happen first.

 

[jlv]

Of course, if I took the bet, I'm pretty sure I could get down there to meet you in person at David's Burgers by driving my S. And, because of the SC network, it would be no hassle at all. I wouldn't want to attempt such a trip in the LEAF 2 (or even a Bolt), since the general infrastructure is still too immature to make such long distance travel stress free for cars other than a Tesla. My wife would certainly never accept such a risky trip. In contrast, she had no problem with the similar trip we considered to NC for the eclipse, even if it required 4 SC stops (2hr total charging for a 12hr trip). All because you can just depend upon the SC being where you need it and just working.

 

[SageBrush]

The leaf is banal as they come. Utilitarian to a fault. I like that, but for the same reason people pay more for leather in a car they will pay more for things that don't necessarily pencil out. The Model 3 may cost $10k more and get a mere 25% extra range. Seems like a lot, but you also get things the leaf doesn't offer like EAP (caveat: still interested in seeing what propilot will do), and the equivalent of a hundred extra horsepower, which is the difference between being "snappy in traffic", which the leaf will be, and downright fast, which the model 3 will be.

There are more unmentioned benefits from the presumed $10k extra paid for a Model 3 over a LEAF2, from my POV:
1. Tesla support. Some people do not care; I do, a lot. I want my money to support clean energy and clean cars. Giving money to a compliance manufacturer is better than buying an ICE, but buying from Tesla is better. Vastly better.
2. High Power, well planned and mature DCFC network
3. Expected long-term car reliability and battery reliability. Saving $10k now and then having to replace the car in 5 years is no savings at all.
4. Outstanding customer support, in exact juxtaposition to outright negligent Nissan support.

 

[internalaudit]

^

For #3,
It seems the battery is very reliable and is not subject to too much degradation but from sample (biased since I searched for them) readings on TMC, I wouldn't say it's above average in reliability. The 2012-14 models are out of warranty for the non-DU and battery components but guessing at the demographics of Model S buyers, majority are well-off that many will just sell their Tesla's or trade them in when they experience too many issues. And move back to their past car brands. With Model 3, you will a lot more complainers; in the future, even those who bought their Model 3 cars used will complain about reliability issues.

For #4,
Tesla cannot afford not to offer outstanding customer support since it isn't well diversified in its offerings and likes to play theatrics (who can blame them when the stock price needs to go up and up) It's totally understandable Tesla needs to quell notions that 1) the labor and parts cost it charges are not revenue neutral and that 2) the car will not be reliable after four years (maybe eight with the ESA). The volume of customers is peanuts compared to a mass manufacturer like Nissan so it's much cheaper to appease customers at the moment.

We will see how Tesla unfolds its game plan going forward with the Model 3 and its SCN.

 

[jlv]

Neither the Tesla 3 or the Gen 2 LEAF are in production and available for sale yet.

Pictures of production VIN #107
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2257816/

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

The essential difference between a company like Tesla, which specializes in selling bullshit, and a company like Nissan, which primarily sells vehicles, is illustrated by the fact that TSLA claims the model 3 is in production

The Model 3 is in production. Not an amount to fill demand any time soon which is the result of:

1) This is the first high volume vehicle they have tried to make
2) Demand is very high

Nissan will be able to fill demand for the leaf 2 easily because:

1) Nissan has lots of experience making high volume cars
2) Demand is very low

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

The leaf is banal as they come. Utilitarian to a fault. I like that, but for the same reason people pay more for leather in a car they will pay more for things that don't necessarily pencil out. The Model 3 may cost $10k more and get a mere 25% extra range. Seems like a lot, but you also get things the leaf doesn't offer like EAP (caveat: still interested in seeing what propilot will do), and the equivalent of a hundred extra horsepower, which is the difference between being "snappy in traffic", which the leaf will be, and downright fast, which the model 3 will be.

There are more unmentioned benefits from the presumed $10k extra paid for a Model 3 over a LEAF2, from my POV:
1. Tesla support. Some people do not care; I do, a lot. I want my money to support clean energy and clean cars. Giving money to a compliance manufacturer is better than buying an ICE, but buying from Tesla is better. Vastly better.
2. High Power, well planned and mature DCFC network
3. Expected long-term car reliability and battery reliability. Saving $10k now and then having to replace the car in 5 years is no savings at all.
4. Outstanding customer support, in exact juxtaposition to outright negligent Nissan support.

Some fo the numbers on truedelta are pretty ugly for the s, though. I know it's better, and there are people with 100k on theirs who haven't had many problems beyond a bad door handle or something trivial. I have a co worker who has a friend (yeah my girlfriend's brother's cousin) who has an S and it has apparently stranded him a couple of times. I can say I've never been stranded in any car in my life.

I would give the edge to the nissan on problems per mile.

I don't know much how tesla customer service is, though their presales are pretty professional. Nissan's battery stuff early on was nothing short of a debacle. I can't tell if nissan is building the leaf as a compliance car or not. GM has admitted they are with the bolt, and that's probably why it looks like a $35k Sonic.

So to your #1 I agree, Tesla is in this to win. It's make or break. They can't fail at this because if they do that's the company. Nissan problem doesn't much care, like the rest of the manufacturers out there.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Neither the Tesla 3 or the Gen 2 LEAF are in production and available for sale yet.

Pictures of production VIN #107
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2257816/

@&#( that gray one looks nice in the first pic. Some of the pics I've seen make the nose on these look a bit weird and too rounded, but that is a damn fine looking vehicle.

 

[edatoakrun]

The essential difference between a company like Tesla, which specializes in selling bullshit, and a company like Nissan, which primarily sells vehicles, is illustrated by the fact that TSLA claims the model 3 is in production, and Nissan, which has undoubtedly put far more Gen two LEAFs on the road than Tesla has model 3s, does not.

It also now appears likely that you will be able to look at, test drive, and have delivered, a gen 2 LEAF available in a complete range of trims for ~$30k to $35k , long before you will be able to experience any of those with a Tesla model 3, priced anywhere below $50,000.

I test drove a Model X, and I will say if it's bullshit, that was some mighty fine bullshit I was driving!

Might the price have been a factor in your passing on an X?

Every Tesla model sold to date has been bullshit, insofar as its average sale price in fact increased to near twice the price originally announced and promoted by TSLA.

Why would anyone expect the model 3 claimed/actual prices to be any different?

"Durandal"
...There are no new Nissan Leafs for sale in my area. I'd wager lunch at David's Burgers nearby the SuperCharger in my city (Little Rock) that I will have my Model 3 that I will purchase for $36,000 (I'm optioning for blue instead of the free black color, so that's an extra $1,000) in my driveway before any of my local Nissan dealerships have any Gen 2 Leafs in stock...

Be sure to report back when you have the opportunity to look at and test drive a model 3.

Or do you plan to take delivery, without doing either first?

Below, AFAIK, are the latest claims by TSLA RE the model 3 delivery timeline, actual deliveries to non-employees to start in November, but to California buyers only...as previously reported.

...If you believe their timeline it sort of looks like:
Aug-Sep: Employee LR, very small amounts of cars
Oct: Start existing Owner LR - scaling to 1500 cars/wk
Nov: Owner and First day non-owner LR, Employee SR - scaling to 4000 cars/wk
Dec: More LR orders, start Owner SR - scaling to 5000 cars/wk
Jan: Unknown mix of SR and LR to everybody at 5000 cars/wk...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/queue-position-effect-of-day-1-m3-orders-delayed-due-to-later-availability-of-35k-model.96312/

When do you expect delivery of your 3?

I'm sure TSLA will eventually deliver at least a few 3's at the ~$36,000 price, and maybe you'll get one.

But I also expect them to be about as rare as "$50,000" model Ss were, and for the same reason.

Since TSLA will likely lose quite a bit of money selling 3's at ~$36k, it will make those versions as unattractive as possible, to limit sales of these loss-leaders.

^
...It seems the battery is very reliable and is not subject to too much degradation but from sample (biased since I searched for them) readings on TMC, I wouldn't say it's above average in reliability...

Tesla is the only major BEV manufacture that does not use fire-resistant battery designs, instead relying on other means, including "armoring" the packs to mostly prevent fires resulting from collisions.

Tesla S's and X's have nevertheless suffered catastrophic battery pack fires, due both to collisions, and internal pack failures.

Regarding collision fires in particular, it remains to be seen if the under-two-ton model 3's pack will be as well-armored, and have as high a pack survivability rate as those in the much larger and heavier S an X models.

 

[internalaudit]

^

"Tesla is the only major BEV manufacture that does not use fire-resistant pack designs, instead relying on other means, including "armoring" the packs to mostly prevent fires resulting from collisions. "

What is the reason why Tesla is not using fire-resistant pack designs, to save on space?

=====

Interesting that Mazda may introduce a BEV ahead of Toyota, using the latter's technology!

http://insideevs.com/mazda-skyactiv-x-to-add-plug-in-variant-in-2021/

For 2019, the Japanese company is expected of offer:

more hybrids and,
an all-electric model (with and without range-extender) using tech borrowed from Toyota


=====

I'm not going to cancel my Model 3 reservation yet since it's only $1k and lots of things will unfold going into late 2018 (my estimated delivery date) but the more I learn about the Leaf, the Bolt and the Ioniq, the less I am inclined to overstretch myself when purchasing a BEV.

I'm after reliability and cost of ownership and I may not be on the right side of the fence with a Tesla but we'll have to see.

 

[IssacZachary]

What is the reason why Tesla is not using fire-resistant pack designs, to save on space?

Tesla I guess isn't trying to compete with other EV's but to compete with gasoline cars that don't use fire-resistant gasoline.

 

[internalaudit]

What is the reason why Tesla is not using fire-resistant pack designs, to save on space?

Tesla I guess isn't trying to compete with other EV's but to compete with gasoline cars that don't use fire-resistant gasoline.

I'm not an engineer or a subject matter expert but the ICE engine is contained within a firewall.

If it's so safe, why the need to upgrade the plates? In most casualties, Tesla seems to be able to point a finger towards the driver after having read their black boxes. I'm usually trusting but of course, some skepticism isn't unwarranted.

Tesla Adds Titanium Underbody Shield and Aluminum Deflector Plates to Model S
https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/tesla-adds-titanium-underbody-shield-and-aluminum-deflector-plates-model-s?redirect=no

 

[edatoakrun]

^

"Tesla is the only major BEV manufacture that does not use fire-resistant pack designs, instead relying on other means, including "armoring" the packs to mostly prevent fires resulting from collisions. "

What is the reason why Tesla is not using fire-resistant pack designs, to save on space?...

Years ago, the small-format cylindrical cells TSLA uses were very cheap to manufacture, relative to other designs.

As the prices of other BEV batteries have fallen rapidly, that may not remain a very significant factor today.

To be clear, I should have written:

...Tesla is the only major BEV manufacture that does not use fire-resistant battery designs, instead relying on other means, including "armoring" the packs to mostly prevent fires resulting from collisions...

A fairly recent discussion, here:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/large-prismatic-cells-and-small-cylindrical-cells-in-bevs.58792/

 

[IssacZachary]

One thing is flammability and another is shielding.

Remember how Ford Pintos would blow up if rearended? I guess putting the fuel tank right in front of the rear bumper wasn't such a good idea.

 

[abasile]

I'm sure TSLA will eventually deliver at least a few 3's at the ~$36,000 price, and maybe you'll get one.

But I also expect them to be about as rare as "$50,000" model Ss were, and for the same reason.

I agree that the majority of Model 3 buyers will probably go for the Premium Upgrades Package for an additional $5000.

However, the "$50,000" Model S of which you speak, the Model S 40, had only about 160 miles of range as I recall, and the vast majority of early buyers wanted more range. The base Model 3 should have more range than the old Model S 60, and a sizable number of base Model S 60 cars were sold without added options. Including the federal income tax credit, they were available for about $63K. That's respectable.

I fully believe that Tesla will eventually produce enough base Model 3 vehicles to satisfy demand, and that the base model will still be an attractive car. I guess time will tell. Personally, I appreciate Tesla's mission and their products, knowing full well that Tesla and Elon Musk do have their flaws, and I hope to see them succeed and push the envelope on EVs, solar, and energy storage. They've already done a huge amount of good - if nothing else, they've lit a fire under the other automakers to build long-range EVs.

 

[DaveInAvl]

One thing is flammability and another is shielding.

Remember how Ford Pintos would blow up if rearended? I guess putting the fuel tank right in front of the rear bumper wasn't such a good idea.

IIRC the problem was that the fuel tank was pierced in the sedans - but not the station wagons - by some metal part driven into it in a rear-end collision. The shield to prevent this in sedans would have cost several dollars, and Ford elected not to install it...

 

[Durandal]

The delivery estimate given to me by Tesla currently is that I should expect delivery of my Model 3 in June-July of 2018 if I elect for the $35,000 model. If I go for the $49,000 model, I can get it in April or May.

If there is a Model 3 available for test-driving prior to taking acquisition, I will do so, but I doubt there will be any real deal-breakers. All the reviews so far have been absolutely glowing. As long as the interior fit/finish is as good as my 2012 Leaf SL then I will be satisfied. I don't really care for leather seats, so the move to cloth seats will be satisfactory for me. If I can't get a test drive prior to purchase, I'm OK with that. I pretty much bought my Leaf after it had been delivered to my house with me taking a test drive down the road from my house for a quick 5 minute jaunt just to make sure there wasn't anything horribly wrong with it, then I signed the paperwork, and they hauled off my Kia.

So, yes, in 11-12 months, I fully expect to be riding in my Model 3, with the Leaf as the "second" vehicle, with our ICE Nissan Versa acting as a third backup vehicle until we get a Model Y, in which I expect we will sell the Leaf, keeping the Versa as a utility beater car until it dies. (Likely via another premature transmission failure.)

In that time, there won't be a single 2nd-Gen Leaf to be found in any dealership nearby me, unless Nissan starts forcing dealerships to take them.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Here is an interesting graphic, from 2016 consumer reports.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/car-brands-ranked-by-satisfaction/

If nothing else it makes the notion that Tesla runs substantially on "bullshit" seem a dubious claim, does it not?

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

The delivery estimate given to me by Tesla currently is that I should expect delivery of my Model 3 in June-July of 2018 if I elect for the $35,000 model. If I go for the $49,000 model, I can get it in April or May.

If there is a Model 3 available for test-driving prior to taking acquisition, I will do so, but I doubt there will be any real deal-breakers. All the reviews so far have been absolutely glowing. As long as the interior fit/finish is as good as my 2012 Leaf SL then I will be satisfied. I don't really care for leather seats, so the move to cloth seats will be satisfactory for me. If I can't get a test drive prior to purchase, I'm OK with that. I pretty much bought my Leaf after it had been delivered to my house with me taking a test drive down the road from my house for a quick 5 minute jaunt just to make sure there wasn't anything horribly wrong with it, then I signed the paperwork, and they hauled off my Kia.

So, yes, in 11-12 months, I fully expect to be riding in my Model 3, with the Leaf as the "second" vehicle, with our ICE Nissan Versa acting as a third backup vehicle until we get a Model Y, in which I expect we will sell the Leaf, keeping the Versa as a utility beater car until it dies. (Likely via another premature transmission failure.)

In that time, there won't be a single 2nd-Gen Leaf to be found in any dealership nearby me, unless Nissan starts forcing dealerships to take them.

I drove a model s recently and made no secret with the place that I was substantially interested in a model 3. After my reservation they contacted inviting me to test drive an S. I think a number of people are driving Ss with the same intention. I had a great idea of what the S would be and it was essentially exactly that. The 3 will be like an s except smaller, sparser on the inside, and slower (if the S is a brand new one, that is). I've bought cars before without test driving and would have done the same with the 3, as long as reviews pan out positively in coming months.

One plus on the extended range may be, depending on when it comes out, the ability to get full federal vs only half if that starts to age out. If I could get extended range for $5k I would. Otherwise 220 for me.