2013 Nov Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2003, Volt 1920

[jhm614]

Next year we are probably going to have an "other" category...the chart is getting too darn big

Or split BEV & PHEV.

^^^ that's the ticket

I hope BMW shows split sales for the i3, that way it will have a spot in both charts.

 

[Deleted member 9549]

It is interesting to note that last year PHEVs outsold BEVs by over 3:1 while this year they have just barely outsold them (1:1). That seems like a very big shift to me. I wonder what is behind it. Perhaps it is due to some who need the additional range purchasing the Tesla Model S? Or just the halo effect of Tesla in general? Or perhaps so many LEAFs being seen on the roads?

Thoughts?

I've thought that PHEVs initially sound good as people try to ease into EVs. Sounds like a nice easy transition from ICE to EVs. Get the best of all worlds.

But in practice it doesn't work that way. You can't have your cake and eat it too. Everything is a compromise. Having an ICE and EV drivetrain increases the cost of the vehicle, reduces available volume and increases it's weight. Makes it less efficient in either mode than a purpose built vehicle.

PHEVs are attractive to those who are concerned that a BEV may not be sufficiently useful to them. As people get more comfortable with the idea of BEVs actually being practical, there is less need to carry around an ICE. PHEVs were always intended as a transition design until BEVs have sufficient range and can recharge quickly enough. As the Model S and the LEAF become more commonplace, consumer awareness grows and people realize that BEVs are already good enough for many.

 

[adric22]

PHEVs are attractive to those who are concerned that a BEV may not be sufficiently useful to them. As people get more comfortable with the idea of BEVs actually being practical, there is less need to carry around an ICE. PHEVs were always intended as a transition design until BEVs have sufficient range and can recharge quickly enough. As the Model S and the LEAF become more commonplace, consumer awareness grows and people realize that BEVs are already good enough for many.

Range and charging aren't the only equation for a PHEV. Lets face it, people need/want more than 75-ish miles range. But not everyone is going to want to spend the money on a HUGE battery pack. PHEV gives the vehicle the extra range they need at a cost much less than a similar amount of additional battery pack.

Owning both a Volt and a Leaf, I can see the beauty of the PHEV and how for the mid-range and low-end cars it is really the best option to go electric without huge sacrifices. Ford is an interesting case study. They sold almost 2,000 plug in vehicles last month, but sold 14 times more PHEV than they did BEV.

I'm making a prediction.. Unless battery prices fall, PHEVs will rule the plug-in segment. BMW will be an interesting case study, to see how many people are willing to pay another $4,000 to get the I.C.E. range extender. I know personally, I would not buy the regular i3, but if I can afford it, I'll consider the i3 REX.

 

[RegGuheert]

... I wonder what is behind it...

Yes, huge shift. Add to the list of reasons is that Nissan dropped the price. A car without a gas engine is cheaper than one with one, everything else being the same. For example the Mitsubishi SUV. If they had the option to drop the gas engine and just be pure BEV, I would probably prefer it.

Yes, this is certainly part of the reason. But I will note that GM lowered the price on the Volt also, albeit later in the year. And I don't think Tesla has lowered the price of anything!

Unless battery prices fall,..

Did you really mean to say "unless"? I simply cannot imagine the price of batteries not falling.

Perhaps the bigger issue is the slope at which battery prices (and perhaps battery mass) fall?

 

[evnow]

It is interesting to note that last year PHEVs outsold BEVs by over 3:1 while this year they have just barely outsold them (1:1). That seems like a very big shift to me. I wonder what is behind it. Perhaps it is due to some who need the additional range purchasing the Tesla Model S? Or just the halo effect of Tesla in general? Or perhaps so many LEAFs being seen on the roads?

Thoughts?

Couple of reasons
- Essentially flat Volt sales
- 2.5x increase in Leaf sales
- 16k Model S

Infact last couple of months the increase in PIP & Energi sales along with one solid Volt month put the PHEV a little ahead, otherwise BEV has more YTD sales than PHEV.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

It is interesting to note that last year PHEVs outsold BEVs by over 3:1 while this year they have just barely outsold them (1:1). That seems like a very big shift to me. I wonder what is behind it. Perhaps it is due to some who need the additional range purchasing the Tesla Model S? Or just the halo effect of Tesla in general? Or perhaps so many LEAFs being seen on the roads?

Thoughts?

restrained supply. several areas are just now getting a decent supply of EVs to buy while other areas are still lacking. also main seller is word of mouth which moves exponentially fast but starts out slowly

and the other is partially the big Tesla splash creating a halo big enough to cover the entire EV spectrum...

i am fully confident that there will be over 150,000 EVs sold in 2014 if not more. we will fall just short of 100,000 this year, and predicting 300,000 for 2015 and it will continue to go up from there.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Jan, the LEAF guy at Glick Nissan, Westboro MA, (drives a LEAF too) told me yesterday that he had a hard time getting the S that just came in, and that the 2014s won't be delivered until February.

 

[tps]

As people get more comfortable with the idea of BEVs actually being practical, there is less need to carry around an ICE. PHEVs were always intended as a transition design until BEVs have sufficient range and can recharge quickly enough. As the Model S and the LEAF become more commonplace, consumer awareness grows and people realize that BEVs are already good enough for many.

Of course a big part of BEV acceptance is building up the charging infrastructure. And that's happening, at least here in the Philadelphia area. In July of 2011 when I rented the Hertz LEAF at Manhattan and drove it to my house on the north side of Philly, there were exactly 3 public charging stations. One was a Chargepoint L2 at the Liberty filling station in south Philly (which I did not use back then), a 120V-only Chargepoint network station at the Element Hotel in Ewing, NJ (which I'd have used in an emergency), and 1 6-20 240V outlet for car charging at the parking garage at the train station in Hamilton NJ (which I did use).

2 1/2 years later there are many L2 charging stations. And now we have 3 QC stations; hopefully more soon.

So the infrastructure is definitely getting more friendly to EVs, and this will be a big factor in helping their acceptance for many drivers.

 

[N1ghtrider]

Approximately how many LEAFs have been sold overall? How many in the USA? Thanks.

 

[Stoaty]

Approximately how many LEAFs have been sold overall? How many in the USA? Thanks.

See the first post in this thread for USA numbers.

 

[TomT]

Pretty soon, if model year introductions keep falling back as they have done with the Leaf every year, we'll be getting the 2016s in 2018...

Jan, the LEAF guy at Glick Nissan, Westboro MA, (drives a LEAF too) told me yesterday that he had a hard time getting the S that just came in, and that the 2014s won't be delivered until February.

 

[KJD]

Approximately how many LEAFs have been sold overall? How many in the USA? Thanks.

There is a short article over at insideEV's about this.

The total worldwide Nissan LEAF sales through the end of November was at least 88,500 units.
Nissan sold to date over 40,000 LEAFs in U.S., over 16,000 in Europe and likely over 32,500 in Japan.

http://insideevs.com/insideevs-pie-charts-worldwide-nissan-leaf-sales-since-december-2010-launch/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The US sales are broken down in detail in this article.
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;