2016 Nissan LEAF Information - 30 kWh SV/SL, 24 kWh S

[TomT]

I think you need a reality check, Dave...

From KBB: "The estimated average transaction price of a new car or truck sold in the U.S. in April, 2015 was $33,560."

Tesla is targeting a $35,000 EV like everyone will flock to it and I think they are CRAZY. last I checked, no one wants to pay that much for any kind of car...

 

[ydnas7]

I think you need a reality check, Dave...

From KBB: "The estimated average transaction price of a new car or truck sold in the U.S. in April, 2015 was $33,560."

Tesla is targeting a $35,000 EV like everyone will flock to it and I think they are CRAZY. last I checked, no one wants to pay that much for any kind of car...

Tesla will probably do very well with its model 3, lots of profit available vs Merc,BMW,Audi,Lexus,Cadilac :lol:

If I3 and VOlt had been made with swapped badges, the i3 would be a disastrous laughing stock, and the Volt would be manna.

exclude trucks, the median price of new cars is a lot lower than the average transaction price of cars and trucks.

 

[evnow]

exclude trucks, the median price of new cars is a lot lower than the average transaction price of cars and trucks.

Do you mean exclude SUVs as well ?

In the US, people are willing to pay more for larger vehicles. So a compact like Model 3 - can only get BMW 3 series like sales. BMW 3 series sales, though, are very good - about 100k per year. They sell about 500k world wide and that is the target Tesla has.

It is difficult to say how much Tesla can actually sell.

 

[ydnas7]

exclude trucks, the median price of new cars is a lot lower than the average transaction price of cars and trucks.

Do you mean exclude SUVs as well ?

In the US, people are willing to pay more for larger vehicles. So a compact like Model 3 - can only get BMW 3 series like sales. BMW 3 series sales, though, are very good - about 100k per year. They sell about 500k world wide and that is the target Tesla has.

It is difficult to say how much Tesla can actually sell.

Considering how well Tesla model S sells vs Mercedes S class, BMW 7 class etc it seems reasonable that Tesla model 3 will sell very well in the midsize premium vehicles (BMW 3 series, Audi, Merc, Lexus etc)
What I don't expect is that Tesla will deliver many at $35k price point for the first 3 years of Tesla 3 production. GM (and Ford) and others who prioritize EVs over hydrogen will make longer range EV to sell in CARB states, at a price point set by Nissan who openly sells globally. But Nissan and Tesla will significantly close in price/range but basically continue to not overlap, I'm expecting a fairly lineal range/performance/price offering from Nissan and Tesla with a Nissan top end ending below Tesla's entry level model S. Actually I'm expecting Nissan's and Tesla next gen cars to have almost the same cost per mile range, similar passenger space but significant acceleration difference.

 

[evnow]

But Nissan and Tesla will significantly close in price/range but basically continue to not overlap, I'm expecting a fairly lineal range/performance/price offering from Nissan and Tesla with a Nissan top end ending below Tesla's entry level model S. Actually I'm expecting Nissan's and Tesla next gen cars to have almost the same cost per mile range, similar passenger space but significant acceleration difference.

Nissan will have an Infiniti EV that will compete directly with Model 3 by the time Model 3 is out.

 

[ydnas7]

My understanding of Nissan Infiniti EV
originally Infiniti EV was to be luxury trim LEAF but was canned because it was not different enough.
then Infiniti EV was to be a luxury trim LEAF sedan with 20% more motor but was canned because it was not enough range.
Then Infiniti EV was to be gen 2 luxury trim LEAF sedan, but then Nissan merges the development of the Infiniti and the LEAF (ie Nissan decides to use Infiniti (gen 2 LEAF) as the actual gen 2 LEAF, ie gen 2 LEAF is dead.

so Nissan Gen 1 LEAF continues on in version 1.xxxx 24-30kWh
Nissan Gen 2 LEAF (Infiniti donor) is available with 2x range of earlier Gen 1 LEAF
Nissan also gets the commercial van version of the NV-200 electrified.
so Nissan has a 3 EV product range (excluding Twizy)

Nissan is well capable of making vehicle which share names but have different platforms
Nissan is well capable of making vehicles that share platform but have different names.

consider Nissan Pulsar B17,C12 and C13

 

[dgpcolorado]

I think you need a reality check, Dave...

From KBB: "The estimated average transaction price of a new car or truck sold in the U.S. in April, 2015 was $33,560."

Yes. I paid more than $35k for my LEAF SV, although I guess that doesn't count since I took advantage of the tax credits. Just my luck that the 2012 MY was the high water mark in LEAF pricing. Oh well...

...But Nissan and Tesla will significantly close in price/range but basically continue to not overlap, I'm expecting a fairly lineal range/performance/price offering from Nissan and Tesla with a Nissan top end ending below Tesla's entry level model S. Actually I'm expecting Nissan's and Tesla next gen cars to have almost the same cost per mile range, similar passenger space but significant acceleration difference.

I suppose it depends on what one means by "range" and "performance". Without Supercharging capability Nissan's cars aren't even in the same league as Tesla, regardless of battery size and price. If all one wants is a car for local/regional travel, fine. But if one is looking for a BEV that can do local/regional travel AND long road trips, Tesla has no competition at all, so far.

I confess that I am baffled by suggestions that Supercharging doesn't matter. To me it is the BEV game changer. The others are just "also-rans".

 

[ydnas7]

But Nissan and Tesla will significantly close in price/range but basically continue to not overlap, I'm expecting a fairly lineal range/performance/price offering from Nissan and Tesla with a Nissan top end ending below Tesla's entry level model S. Actually I'm expecting Nissan's and Tesla next gen cars to have almost the same cost per mile range, similar passenger space but significant acceleration difference.

Nissan will have an Infiniti EV that will compete directly with Model 3 by the time Model 3 is out.

No

Nissan's EV plan was that longer range Infiniti EV is released just before the end of Nissan 88 and that LEAF is released just after the end of Nissan 88 (but is still considered a Nissan 88 product)

Now we see that Nissan LEAF gen 2 is being released when the Infiniti was to have been released. With the range expected of Infiniti EV.
Infiniti EV is back to being dead.
Nissan LEAF gen 1 is given new cells.

So no, Nissan does not compete with Tesla gen 3

but Tesla does set the ceiling to which Nissan can sell their top spec LEAF.

if 5% of Nissan LEAF gen 2 and Tesla model 3 sales overlap in price, I consider that to be non competition.
vs
if 95% of BMW 3 series and Tesla model 3 sales overlap in price, I consider that competition.

 

[ydnas7]

I confess that I am baffled by suggestions that Supercharging doesn't matter. To me it is the BEV game changer. The others are just "also-rans".

agree

I'm curious if Gen 2 Nissan boosts cell voltage from 3.8 to 4.5 V

 

[TomT]

But I doubt that it will be able to compete with the corporate culture and way of doing things that has made Tesla so attractive. Even if the Infiniti was slightly better and slightly cheaper, I'd still go with the Tesla because of that!

Nissan will have an Infiniti EV that will compete directly with Model 3 by the time Model 3 is out.

 

[TomT]

+10!

I confess that I am baffled by suggestions that Supercharging doesn't matter. To me it is the BEV game changer. The others are just "also-rans".

 

[ydnas7]

But I doubt that it will be able to compete with the corporate culture and way of doing things that has made Tesla so attractive. Even if the Infiniti was slightly better and slightly cheaper, I'd still go with the Tesla because of that!

Nissan will have an Infiniti EV that will compete directly with Model 3 by the time Model 3 is out.

which is why Infiniti EV is dead yet again.

globally, VW significantly outsell Audi. yet Audi is still a great success.
Tesla has a great brand, but it comes at a price.

 

[evnow]

No

I don't think Infiniti will throw in the towel this soon.

if 5% of Nissan LEAF gen 2 and Tesla model 3 sales overlap in price, I consider that to be non competition.
vs
if 95% of BMW 3 series and Tesla model 3 sales overlap in price, I consider that competition.

A lot of people may stretch their budget to buy a Model 3 - for eg - if there was no Leaf 2. Or if Model 3 price is too close to Leaf 2, some may stretch their budget to get 3 over Leaf. That is how - even if they don't compete at the same price - they are competitors.

if one went with your definition, Windows & Linux are not competitors.

 

[evnow]

But I doubt that it will be able to compete with the corporate culture and way of doing things that has made Tesla so attractive. Even if the Infiniti was slightly better and slightly cheaper, I'd still go with the Tesla because of that!

But, TomT, not everyone is you. There are people who aren't as well informed and just buy based on sales person's recommendations. They will recommend Leaf/Infiniti - not Tesla. Infact they'll actively dissuade Tesla ... (it is a new company, who knows how many years they will remain - just look at Fisker etc).

Then, there is the lease. NMAC will definitely be able to offer attractive leases compared to what Tesla's banking partner can. Considering most premium cars are leased ...

 

[evnow]

...From articles I've read GM is already starting to be vague as to what the 200 mile number will relate to and if I remember correctly hearing 200 from Nissan started up after the 200 from GM.

What articles are you talking about ? That mis-statement from China that Insideevs latched on to ? Did you read the update ?

I'm fairly sure Nissan knows more about Bolt (and before it became public) than what GM puts out by the way to press releases.

 

[ydnas7]

No

I don't think Infiniti will throw in the towel this soon.

if 5% of Nissan LEAF gen 2 and Tesla model 3 sales overlap in price, I consider that to be non competition.
vs
if 95% of BMW 3 series and Tesla model 3 sales overlap in price, I consider that competition.

A lot of people may stretch their budget to buy a Model 3 - for eg - if there was no Leaf 2. Or if Model 3 price is too close to Leaf 2, some may stretch their budget to get 3 over Leaf. That is how - even if they don't compete at the same price - they are competitors.

if one went with your definition, Windows & Linux are not competitors.

This is about cars, not operating systems. Yeesh

I agree that people will wait/stretch to get the Model 3 instead of the LEAF. but seriously, that is like someone stretches from a VW Golf to get a Audi A4.

Yes, people will quickly compare Tesla and Nissan, but seriously they are different segments and different prices.

 

[dhanson865]

Yes, people will quickly compare Tesla and Nissan, but seriously they are different segments and different prices.

I don't think you realize what the supercharger network is worth to a perspective buyer.

Anyone that has been screwed by NRG, Blink, chargepoint, etcetera or even has had some medium to minor hassles with public charging will have a strong distaste for the alternative once they see Superchargers 8 across with no card reader, no touch screen, nothing but just plug your car in and relax.

Supercharging isn't just faster, it's more pervasive (compared to chademo or other high speed charging types), its more convenient, its better in every possible way (talking about the chargers themselves and how they interact with the user and the car).

Just look at http://supercharge.info" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and if there is a dot near you the advantage goes to Tesla. That's worth more than a few thousand dollars to quite a few people.

 

[evnow]

This is about cars, not operating systems. Yeesh

So ? There is an entirely different meaning for competitors when it comes to automobiles ?

Yes, people will quickly compare Tesla and Nissan, but seriously they are different segments and different prices.

I don't think we are talking competitors in the same way. I'm using classic Porter definition. These could be substitute products. What are you using ?

 

[ydnas7]

I don't think we are talking competitors in the same way. I'm using classic Porter definition. These could be substitute products. What are you using ?

I'm using Sloan's 1924, "A Car for Every Purse and Purpose" https://history.gmheritagecenter.com/wiki/index.php/1924,_%22A_Car_for_Every_Purse_and_Purpose%22" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Currently VW is the company most Sloan in style. (Seat/Skoda/VW/Audi/Porsche/Bently/Lamboghini/Bugatti) http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/content/en/brands_and_products.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I just don't see a vehicle at twice the lease cost as being a competitor in automotive terms, Color me skeptical, but I reckon the Nissan LEAF gen 2 will be a competitor to a CPO Tesla model 3. And that will be about 3 years after first delivery of Tesla model 3. Further point I expect market demand will be greater than what Tesla and Nissan combined can supply. That is, Tesla's production will go to the highest bidder, which is not the Nissan LEAF type clientele. Nissan's LEAF 2 will itself grow marketshare in a significant way, with Nissan able to restrict supply of base model LEAF. It may change by the time Tesla gets to 500,000 vehicles a year, but that takes time.

 

[jhm614]

But, TomT, not everyone is you. There are people who aren't as well informed and just buy based on sales person's recommendations. They will recommend Leaf/Infiniti - not Tesla. Infact they'll actively dissuade Tesla ... (it is a new company, who knows how many years they will remain - just look at Fisker etc).

Then, there is the lease. NMAC will definitely be able to offer attractive leases compared to what Tesla's banking partner can. Considering most premium cars are leased ...

Also, there are some states where you can't buy a Tesla (such as Texas). That will give Leaf 2 / Infiniti EV a serious leg up on the TM3 in those places.