ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

[GRA]

Quotes are messed up.

Should be fixed now. I hate typing on my phone: had a close parens instead of a slash inside the bracket. :x

The expense of public charging is a tiny fraction of ownership costs, except for two corner cases. Those few that will not have home, work or apartment charging in about three more decades when needed. And the very few that drive mostly long distances.

You think we can afford to wait three decades? I don't, which is why I consider PHEVs the mainstream option for now, as you don't put all your eggs in what is currently an inadequate basket, while eliminating the vast majority (dare I say 80%?) of emissions ASAP in the areas that need it the most. Those who have stable home or work charging and who rarely if ever take even weekend trips can go BEV now if they can afford it, and everyone else could switch to a PHEV and charge it an increasing % of the time as infrastructure increases, while still being able to do their weekend getaways and road trips as quickly and conveniently as they do now, i.e. an essentially painless transition.

We have no choice about waiting. If sales double every two or three years, which is about as fast as is likely, from a manufacturing prospective and from a social prospective, then it and from an infrastructure prospective, then in about 5 doubling times or 10 to 15 years, the majority of cars sold will be electrics. As the average life of a car on the road is over a decade, then in 20 to 25 years will be starting to be worrying about the infrastructure of the remaining. PHEVs don't change the infrastructure used daily that much.

Which is one of their major advantages for people now, especially but not solely for renters. The most likely, indeed for most people the only (bar electrical upgrades) electric circuit that people will be able to use for home charging has either a NEMA 5-15 or 5-20 receptacle. A PHEV with a battery sized to cover most people's routine daily driving can be fully charged from such a circuit in 8 hours or less, and requires no extra expense, upgrades, permit pulling or other hassle. One to two generations of PHEVs gives us significant reductions in emissions, buying us more time to build the necessary L2 & QC charging and/or H2 fueling infrastructure for BEVs/FCEVs so that we can phase out new fossil-fueled transport in 15-20 years and get rid of them entirely in an unlikely 20 but more probably 25-30 years.

 

[WetEV]

We have no choice about waiting. If sales double every two or three years, which is about as fast as is likely, from a manufacturing prospective and from a social prospective, then it and from an infrastructure prospective, then in about 5 doubling times or 10 to 15 years, the majority of cars sold will be electrics. As the average life of a car on the road is over a decade, then in 20 to 25 years will be starting to be worrying about the infrastructure of the remaining. PHEVs don't change the infrastructure used daily that much.

Which is one of their major advantages for people now, especially but not solely for renters.

Well you certainly misinterpreted that.

The most likely, indeed for most people the only (bar electrical upgrades) electric circuit that people will be able to use for home charging has either a NEMA 5-15 or 5-20 receptacle. A PHEV with a battery sized to cover most people's routine daily driving can be fully charged from such a circuit in 8 hours or less, and requires no extra expense, upgrades, permit pulling or other hassle.

The home charging you need depends on the miles you drive, not on size of battery or if a BEV or a PHEV.

You don't need to fully recharge in 8 hours or any other specific time, you need enough recharging to keep the car moving. A 100 MWh battery? No need to charge in 8 hours. Or even in 800 hours. Yes, a battery that size isn't likely to ever be put into a car, even if feasible. Who would ever want to drive 100,000 miles without stopping at 120 MPH?

If a person drives a fairly average 30 miles a day or 11,000 miles a year, at 3 miles per kWh wall to wheels you need 10 kWh sometime overnight, roughly 12 hours to 14 hours. That's fairly easy at L1 rates (NEMA 5-15 or 5-20), which is fairly cheap and easy to set up. Doesn't matter if PHEV or BEV.

 

[GRA]

We have no choice about waiting. If sales double every two or three years, which is about as fast as is likely, from a manufacturing prospective and from a social prospective, then it and from an infrastructure prospective, then in about 5 doubling times or 10 to 15 years, the majority of cars sold will be electrics. As the average life of a car on the road is over a decade, then in 20 to 25 years will be starting to be worrying about the infrastructure of the remaining. PHEVs don't change the infrastructure used daily that much.

Which is one of their major advantages for people now, especially but not solely for renters.

Well you certainly misinterpreted that.

Nope, just starting from a different premise.

The most likely, indeed for most people the only (bar electrical upgrades) electric circuit that people will be able to use for home charging has either a NEMA 5-15 or 5-20 receptacle. A PHEV with a battery sized to cover most people's routine daily driving can be fully charged from such a circuit in 8 hours or less, and requires no extra expense, upgrades, permit pulling or other hassle.

The home charging you need depends on the miles you drive, not on size of battery or if a BEV or a PHEV.

Well, duh. I'm concerned with lopping off the routine daily driving miles for the typical commuter. The average pre-pandemic one-way commute distance in the U.S. was 16 miles, so 32 miles round-trip. At 3-4 mi./kWh and an effective charge rate into the battery (12A @ 75% efficiency) of 1.08kW, you can add 8.64kWh in 8 hours, which should suffice to supply the majority of the country's commutes.

You don't need to fully recharge in 8 hours or any other specific time, you need enough recharging to keep the car moving. A 100 MWh battery? No need to charge in 8 hours. Or even in 800 hours. Yes, a battery that size isn't likely to ever be put into a car, even if feasible. Who would ever want to drive 100,000 miles without stopping at 120 MPH?

I'm not talking about super and mega commuters, who obviously require faster charging if they want to be all-electric. They know who they are, and are willing and able to pay for and install the L2 charging required. Those who aren't will still get at least 20 electric miles and likely more a day from a PHEV.

If a person drives a fairly average 30 miles a day or 11,000 miles a year, at 3 miles per kWh wall to wheels you need 10 kWh sometime overnight, roughly 12 hours to 14 hours. That's fairly easy at L1 rates (NEMA 5-15 or 5-20), which is fairly cheap and easy to set up. Doesn't matter if PHEV or BEV.

Then, aside from your assumption of a somewhat lower average mi./kWh efficiency than I do, as well as my belief that you are assuming overly generous off-peak periods, ISTM that we agree on the value of PHEVs with L1 charging as the simplest, least expensive, and most widely available way NOW to get a significant reduction in emissions soonest, along with getting people used to driving electric, at a price far more people can afford. After all, a Niro PHEV has a 9kWh battery (not sure if that's total or usable) while the BEV has 64 kWh ditto, most of which is just extra weight being hauled around unused most of the time. 7+ PHEVs using most or all of their battery every day has a far greater positive environmental effect than 1 BEV using 1/7th of its capacity to go the same distance.

 

[knightmb]

I would still foresee a problem where the people using the PHEV that never use enough of the battery to require the gas engine to kick in would then need to worry about adding fuel stabilizer to the tank? I've never owned a PHEV (so no experience with how they work doing daily drives), so can that really be a problem of using electric mode so much that you have to find some way to get the gas engine to turn over or do they just fire them up occasional to keep the oil/gas in them good longer? Serious question really. :shock:
For example, my wife only drives 5 miles to work, round trip of 10 miles Monday through Friday. We have a L2 at home, she uses that on her Leaf currently. If she was driving a PHEV instead, she would never use gas, would that be a problem months or years later of the same routine and never using gas, with it just sitting in the tank and the gas engine never being used?

 

[WetEV]

Well you certainly misinterpreted that.

Nope, just starting from a different premise.

To use BEVs for commuting or to use PHEVs for commuting takes the same home and/or work infrastructure was my premise. What was yours?

 

[GRA]

Well you certainly misinterpreted that.

Nope, just starting from a different premise.

To use BEVs for commuting or to use PHEVs for commuting takes the same home and/or work infrastructure was my premise. What was yours?

That we need to transition as quickly as possible away from fossil fuels, and the only way to get mass consumer buy-in is to make the process as simple, inexpensive, anxiety-free and universal as possible. If we want people to be willing to plug in, we have to make that process as normal as we can. No need to talk or even know about adding circuits, upgrading service entrances, NEMA 10-30s vs. 6- or 14-50s, etc. Just plug the EVSE in to any standard home receptacle (which, to be sure, has no other loads on it at the same time as it's charging), which is the only type everyone is familiar with.

To be acceptable to mass market consumers, BEVs must have large battery packs which currently make them more expensive, and to fully charge those packs in a reasonable time to allow use beyond routine daily driving, which is a customer requirement, requires L2 charging or access to QCs. The first is an added cost and hassle at home even if the option is available, and the second will remain sparse for years yet.

PHEVs with adequate AERs to handle most routine use are currently less expensive to buy, less expensive on road trips as well as avoiding forced time consuming stops, can be hassle free as far as charging, eliminate range anxiety and are the lowest common denominator of PEVs, providing the biggest environmental bang for the buck with the least need for special technical education of the consumer. Rapid mass adoption requires the easiest possible transition, at the lowest price and with the fewest barriers, whether financial, infrastructural or intellectual.

PHEVs' main disadvantage so far has been explaining the rationale for them; that's a question of marketing and familiarity, along with the right perks - SO HOV stickers, emission-free urban zones, etc. Then, having accustomed a much larger customer base to driving electric, many more will be ready, willing and able to take the next step to a ZEV, at a time when battery and/or FCEV performance, longevity and costs have (hopefully) improved to where they can compete with ICEs, and the charging/H2 fueling infrastructure is able to support a much larger number of BEVs, at energy prices equal or less than fossil fuels.

 

[GRA]

I would still foresee a problem where the people using the PHEV that never use enough of the battery to require the gas engine to kick in would then need to worry about adding fuel stabilizer to the tank? I've never owned a PHEV (so no experience with how they work doing daily drives), so can that really be a problem of using electric mode so much that you have to find some way to get the gas engine to turn over or do they just fire them up occasional to keep the oil/gas in them good longer? Serious question really. :shock:
For example, my wife only drives 5 miles to work, round trip of 10 miles Monday through Friday. We have a L2 at home, she uses that on her Leaf currently. If she was driving a PHEV instead, she would never use gas, would that be a problem months or years later of the same routine and never using gas, with it just sitting in the tank and the gas engine never being used?

IIRR, in the Volt the engine ran automatically every so often if you weren't using it otherwise, to avoid the problem you mention. If your wife really never uses her car for anything else, a small battery BEV sounds like all she needs, and there's no need to haul around an ICE and tank of fossil fuel. That's one extreme of usage.

For that matter, does she even need the passenger capacity of the LEAF, or would something like a SMART be adequate? Unless she hauls kids or lots of friends she doesn't need five seats, nor do many of the 78% of pre-pandemic U.S. commuters who did so alone in a car. Yet almost all of them buy cars that hold 5 or more, a perfect example of the "occasional use imperative" at work.

 

[LeftieBiker]

The PIP did not have an 'automatic run to used old gas' mode. It would be so difficult for most people to avoid the engine starting by itself that it wasn't seen as necessary, I guess.

 

[WetEV]

Nope, just starting from a different premise.

To use BEVs for commuting or to use PHEVs for commuting takes the same home and/or work infrastructure was my premise. What was yours?

That we need to transition as quickly as possible away from fossil fuels, and the only way to get mass consumer buy-in is to make the process as simple, inexpensive, anxiety-free and universal as possible. If we want people to be willing to plug in, we have to make that process as normal as we can.

"Mass consumer buy-in" is a decade or more away, even if there wasn't manufacturing limitations. Time is why everything doesn't happen all at once. Five doubling times needed. BEVs are different, not "normal", and some of those differences are very positive. No oil changes, no smelly gasoline hands, quieter, cleaner, warms up cabin faster in winter and so on. PHEVs are not different in many of those positive ways. Molasses catches more flies than lemon juice.

Sure, if I was commanding what cars were available, PHEVs would make more sense. And I'll recommend PHEVs to anyone that fits the following profile:
1) Could drive mostly in AER
2) Long drives to anywhere without infrastructure. Or lots of long drives.
Notice that I would not recommend a PHEV to you. Or a BEV for that matter. Not enough AER use.

Persuasion is different than command. Rather than saying it will hurt less to switch to a PHEV, I think pointing out the really nice features of a BEV puts more butts in seats. And BEV drivers are loyal to BEVs. Sure, some discover that infrastructure makes a BEV impractical for them, and switch back to a PHEV or evan an ICE. Sure, this requires a more complex view of the market than just "mass market". It accepts that change is gradual, not sudden.

I have Trump loving truck driving relatives. I can talk to them about EVs, show them videos of White Zombie, NIO EP9 tearing up the Green Hell, the electric mustang taking on the Texas mile, and even talk about EV semi trailer trucks lower maintenance costs and both advantages and drawbacks. I can't think of a single way to talk about PHEVs. Suggestions??


Of the top ten worldwide sellers, only two are PHEVs:
http://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global-bev-and-phev-volumes-for-2020-h1/

 

[SageBrush]

The most basic problem with PHEV is that they look a whole lot better on paper than what we see with fleet results. People buy them for the subsidies and perks and then (as a group) tend to use them as ICE vehicles. It is not *so* surprising to see this happening, since for most owners it is a hassle to plug in every day.

I find most convincing the European data. Even though fossil fuel is easily double the cost than in the USA, European PHEV owners do not plug-in PHEVs very often.

 

[knightmb]

I've noticed the same thing with the friends that own one. Instead of using it as a sometimes gas vehicle for long trips, they just use it as a gas vehicle all the time and ignore the battery part completely. They use the "gas" to charge it up, which kind of defeats the point if you never plug it in. Why not just get a very good MPG gas vehicle instead carrying a heavy battery all the time? :lol:

The most basic problem with PHEV is that they look a whole lot better on paper than what we see with fleet results. People buy them for the subsidies and perks and then (as a group) tend to use them as ICE vehicles. It is not *so* surprising to see this happening, since for most owners it is a hassle to plug in every day.

 

[SageBrush]

Why not just get a very good MPG gas vehicle instead carrying a heavy battery all the time?

The perks and subsidies.

Even though I am an EV advocate through and through, I think a fair argument can be made for 50+ MPG vehicle subsidy. I just do not distinguish between HEV and PHEV since the fleet carbon emission results are similar.

 

[GerryAZ]

I would really like to have a PHEV 4X4 SUV (with true off-road capability) for an office vehicle. Since I sometimes use the vehicle as a portable office, it would be great to be able to drive long distances to remote construction sites and then use A/C or heat without running the engine and run an inverter for computer power without discharging the 12V battery. Charging from station power at substation or communication sites, when possible, would also help to minimize air pollution and fuel consumption.

Costs for DCQC will not be competitive with gasoline or diesel in many areas unless there are changes in commercial electricity rates to address high demand charges. Tesla gets around the demand and energy charges by having PV solar installations associated with many of their supercharger stations. PV solar installations are probably more cost effective for Tesla than other charging networks because Tesla has a division that manufactures PV solar systems.

 

[WetEV]

Costs for DCQC will not be competitive with gasoline or diesel in many areas unless there are changes in commercial electricity rates to address high demand charges. Tesla gets around the demand and energy charges by having PV solar installations associated with many of their supercharger stations.

Tesla has higher volume of charging at each location, so pays a smaller fraction of costs as demand charges. Storage matters, shaving the demand peak by 100kW saves about $1,041.

If you have one 150kW charge per month, all of the demand charge is allocated to that one charge. If you have 100 150kW charges per month, much cheaper.

https://www.pse.com/-/media/Project/PSE/Portal/Rate-documents/summ_elec_prices_2021_01_01.pdf

PSE Schedule 25 for OCT - MAR Demand charge is $10.41 per kW over 50 kW. And $0.098514 per kWh.


This might be why many chargers are just under 50 kW. Demand charge doesn't start until then.

One charge per month at 150kW for 20 minutes will cost (kW over 50kW) * $10.41 + 150kW/3 * 0.0985 = 100*10.41 + 50* 0.0985 = $1045.93

At one hundred charges per month, $15.34 each.

With three hundred charges per month, $8.40 each.


For more than one charger at a location, probably on PSE schedule 26.

 

[GerryAZ]

PSE commercial rates are much more conducive to DCQC than the rates in Arizona. Demand charges kick in at 20 kW (15-minute demand) and energy costs are also significantly higher here.

 

[WetEV]

Got a Trump loving Truck Driving relative?

Send them this EV advertisement.

https://youtu.be/uyd6ONBV5V4

 

[GRA]

To use BEVs for commuting or to use PHEVs for commuting takes the same home and/or work infrastructure was my premise. What was yours?

That we need to transition as quickly as possible away from fossil fuels, and the only way to get mass consumer buy-in is to make the process as simple, inexpensive, anxiety-free and universal as possible. If we want people to be willing to plug in, we have to make that process as normal as we can.

"Mass consumer buy-in" is a decade or more away, even if there wasn't manufacturing limitations. Time is why everything doesn't happen all at once. Five doubling times needed. BEVs are different, not "normal", and some of those differences are very positive. No oil changes, no smelly gasoline hands, quieter, cleaner, warms up cabin faster in winter and so on. PHEVs are not different in many of those positive ways. Molasses catches more flies than lemon juice.

We're agreed that mass consumer buy-in of BEVs is at least one (car) generation away, until they come closer to meeting people's requirements. That will take better, cheaper, longer-lasting batteries and a lot more charging infrastructure.

Sure, if I was commanding what cars were available, PHEVs would make more sense. And I'll recommend PHEVs to anyone that fits the following profile:
1) Could drive mostly in AER
2) Long drives to anywhere without infrastructure. Or lots of long drives.
Notice that I would not recommend a PHEV to you. Or a BEV for that matter. Not enough AER use.

We agree on whose needs are best matched by a PHEV.

In my particular case, a PHEV doesn't make sense from a TCO and maybe an environmental (emissions during battery production and recycling vs. driving emissions) perspective. OTOH, I am ideologically motivated, albeit not as an overriding priority, and a PHEV would allow me to control emissions where I wanted to, and I would definitely be making full use of the AERat every opportunity, and charging whenever it's convenient (and reasonably priced), so the choice for me between a PHEV and an HEV isn't quite so clear cut. And the recent opening of a QC site on my most common roadtrip route, with the hoped-for opening soon of another site 11 miles further along, makes a BEV quite a bit more useful for me, if still lacking the rapid, go-anywhere capability that I need.

Persuasion is different than command. Rather than saying it will hurt less to switch to a PHEV, I think pointing out the really nice features of a BEV puts more butts in seats. And BEV drivers are loyal to BEVs. Sure, some discover that infrastructure makes a BEV impractical for them, and switch back to a PHEV or evan an ICE. Sure, this requires a more complex view of the market than just "mass market". It accepts that change is gradual, not sudden.

I have Trump loving truck driving relatives. I can talk to them about EVs, show them videos of White Zombie, NIO EP9 tearing up the Green Hell, the electric mustang taking on the Texas mile, and even talk about EV semi trailer trucks lower maintenance costs and both advantages and drawbacks. I can't think of a single way to talk about PHEVs. Suggestions??

Lower price, performance, go anywhere without the hassle of BEVs, pretty much the points I've previously mentioned. There's also a need to alter the perks and reduce or eliminate subsidies for all ZEVs, which would boost the economic argument for PHEVs vs. BEVs. I can see no justifiable reason whatever that tax dollars should be used to help people buy cars costing over $40k out-the-door.

Of the top ten worldwide sellers, only two are PHEVs:
http://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global-bev-and-phev-volumes-for-2020-h1/

If you've been reading the general EV sales topic, you'll notice that over the last few months PHEV sales have been greater than BEV sales in most European countries. While it's too early to be sure of the reasons, my guess is that the early adopters have bought their BEVs, and now more mainstream customers are making the more rational choice for PHEVs. Whatever the reason, it does show that PHEVs can sell.

 

[GRA]

The PIP did not have an 'automatic run to used old gas' mode. It would be so difficult for most people to avoid the engine starting by itself that it wasn't seen as necessary, I guess.

Indeed. The Prime had a much more usable all-electric mode, but I'm not sure if Toyota provided a Volt-type auto-engine run function. They may have felt it wasn't necessary for the Prime, as the typical Prius buyer is motivated by cost or environmental reasons to minimize gas use and/or emissions. Sagebrush had a Prime: any info?

 

[GRA]

The most basic problem with PHEV is that they look a whole lot better on paper than what we see with fleet results. People buy them for the subsidies and perks and then (as a group) tend to use them as ICE vehicles. It is not *so* surprising to see this happening, since for most owners it is a hassle to plug in every day.

I find most convincing the European data. Even though fossil fuel is easily double the cost than in the USA, European PHEV owners do not plug-in PHEVs very often.

You'll note that one reason a lot of fleet users don't plug-in is that they are reimbursed for gas, but not for electricity, especially at home. This isn't an insoluble problem. Also, we need to make PHEV perks dependent on using electric mode. See below.

We need to change the subsidies to make PHEVs the economic as well as practical choice compared to BEVs. I've been advocating for years here for lower price caps on subsidies, but IMO even better would be to eliminate them altogether. That would automatically drive a higher share of PEV sales to PHEVs (until BEV prices come down), if combined with more focused perks. Here in California, Caltrans has been building HOT Lanes in the major urban areas. I've never been a fan of "Lexus Lanes", although nowadays they night be more rightly called "Tesla Lanes". I see no reason why wealthy solo ICE drivers should benefit from reduced travel times when they provide minimal benefit to the rest of society.

I'm not a big fan of SO-HOV stickers generally, but at least if we're going to let PHEVs use these lanes they should only be allowed to do so when running on the battery. As HOT lanes require the use of FasTrak transponders for billing, what we need are transponders modified to show that PHEVs are in fact running on the battery, otherwise they're subject to ticketing and being billed.

 

[GRA]

I've noticed the same thing with the friends that own one. Instead of using it as a sometimes gas vehicle for long trips, they just use it as a gas vehicle all the time and ignore the battery part completely. They use the "gas" to charge it up, which kind of defeats the point if you never plug it in. Why not just get a very good MPG gas vehicle instead carrying a heavy battery all the time? :lol:

See my immediately preceding reply to Sagebrush, where I suggest a couple of ways to incentivize people buying PHEVs to use the battery.