cwerdna
Well-known member
Coverage from a protest in PA this morning:
https://www.facebook.com/cnn/videos/362600778024619/
https://www.facebook.com/cnn/videos/362600778024619/
We're past 40K deaths in the US now (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-04-20-coronavirus-news-n1187556; 41.6K per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ right now). On April 11, the US passed 20K https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-updates-michael-avenatti-granted-temporary-release-prison/story?id=70098434. (First death in the US seemed to be Feb 29: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html.)LTLFTcomposite said:It's possible the whole thing wasn't as bad as it was made out to be
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html
HARRIS: The test he's using boasts a specificity of 99%, which means it only falsely says a blood sample has antibodies when it doesn't just 1% of the time. But despite that impressive statistic, a test like this is not 99% correct and, in fact, in some circumstances could be much, much worse. That's because of this counterintuitive fact. The validity of a test depends not only on the test itself but, oddly, on how common the disease is in the population you're sampling.
GILBERT WELCH: It is kind of a strange thing.
HARRIS: Dr. Gilbert Welch is a scientist at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston.
WELCH: An antibody test is much more likely to be wrong in a population with very little COVID exposure.
INSKEEP: Richard, I think we need to slow down here. Why would the...
HARRIS: OK.
INSKEEP: ...Accuracy of a test depend on how common the disease is in a population?
HARRIS: Yeah, that is surprising. But here's a simple way to look at it. Say you are running a test that gives five falsely positive results in 100 people. Sounds like pretty good odds, right? But...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
HARRIS: But consider this, Steve - if 5% of a population is infected and you run the test on 100 people, you should get five true positives, but you also have those five false positives.
INSKEEP: Oh.
HARRIS: And Welch says there's no way to know which is which.
WELCH: The tests will be wrong half the time. Half the people will be falsely reassured.
HARRIS: So it's basically a coin flip.
There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.cwerdna said:social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc.
:roll:LTLFTcomposite said:There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.cwerdna said:social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/02/826360394/seattle-area-nursing-home-linked-to-dozens-of-coronavirus-deaths-faces-600-000-f had at least 37 people die. Per https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-kirkland-washington-nursing-home-coronvirus-2020-3#the-number-of-cases-increased-by-march-7-26-people-had-died-with-some-connection-to-the-nursing-home-this-included-13-people-who-died-in-hospitals-and-who-were-confirmed-to-have-the-coronavirus-in-a-typical-month-the-nursing-home-had-between-3-and-7-deaths-18 and others "In a typical month, the nursing home had between 3 and 7 deaths."In South Korea, Daegu became the epicentre of coronavirus.
In early March, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 63.5 per cent of all confirmed cases in the country were “related to Shincheonji [Church of Jesus].”
Now in South Korea, as of reporting, there have been 8,162 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 75 deaths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germ_theory_of_diseaseLTLFTcomposite said:There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.
LTLFTcomposite said:There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.
LTLFTcomposite said:There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.
Perhaps you should skip to about 8:34 of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU and ask yourself how orders like https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/order-health-officer-033120.aspx under "For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Travel” means travel for any of the following purposes:..." reduce contact and the chance of contact with others who may be infected or touching surfaces that have COVID-19 and reduce the chance of spreading it if you have it.LTLFTcomposite said:There is no scientific evidence those actions had any effect on the spread of he virus. We don't have a "control world" where none of that was done to compare the outcomes, so it's all anecdotal.cwerdna said:social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/04/16/coronavirus-nj-state-sends-team-help-andover-nursing-home/5144923002/Because the federal government has not been releasing a count of its own, The Associated Press has been keeping its own tally from media reports and state health departments, finding at least 8,426 deaths linked to coronavirus outbreaks in nursing homes and long-term care facilities nationwide.
...
“It’s fair to say nursing homes have been ground zero” for the virus, Verma said, noting that the Life Care Center nursing home in Washington state became the first COVID-19 hot spot in the U.S. That outbreak eventually claimed 43 lives.
Some of the biggest outbreaks since have included 55 deaths at a nursing home in the Crown Heights section of Brooklyn, 49 at a home outside Richmond, Virginia, 48 at a veteran’s home in Holyoke, Mass., and at least 40 deaths each at five homes in outer boroughs of New York City.
State officials said a total of 35 residents had died at the home since the end of March, with 19 of those deaths linked to COVID-19. The Andover home, which is made up of two separate buildings, is the state's largest long-term care facility, with almost 700 beds and more than 500 residents.
So, it's better to fly blind?LTLFTcomposite said:That's why testing is so important!
(just kidding, testing doesn't accomplish anything, but the groupthink is totally out of control)
Right now, South Korea still only has 237 deaths from COVID-19 per https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Yes, their population is under 16% of ours but we are past 42K deaths and many times 237 die in a day in the US from COVID-19.cwerdna said:Now? The cat is way out of the bag. It's out of control and testing was woefully insufficient for weeks. It still seems problematic in the US.LTLFTcomposite said:The reality is this is just a tough situation and there wasn't anything anyone could have done or can do now to make it all rainbows.
Good luck trying to test, trace and isolate now. In some communities, it's WAY beyond that and impossible, even if there were widely available testing. (AFAIK, there's no tracing going on in my county. Last night on local news, they spoke to a woman who got tested on March 11th and didn't know her results until March 28! Another woman (a Lyft or Uber driver) had to wait 9 days for her results.)
...
South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have handled things pretty well.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster - South Korea and the US apparently got their 1st cases of COVID-19 on Jan 20th.
Have you looked at how many cases and deaths they have (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)? Yes, they're way smaller countries/regions but even if you multiply by how many times the US population is vs. theirs, we're doing poorly w/hospitals getting overloaded in NYC. It seems likely that problem will soon spread.
LTLFTcomposite said:"Contact tracing" is another groupthink line, but totally useless in this situation. Works great for STDs like AIDS where even the most promiscuous can usually recall who they did it with, but the Woohoo virus is so contagious just passing within a few feet of someone may be enough to transmit it. You quickly find everyone has had indirect contact with the entire human race.
Hiring a bunch of people to do contact tracing is fine if you want to make busywork for all the people you're paying anyway with the money you printed, but it won't change any outcomes.
You don't know that. It's anecdotal. We don't have another version of South Korea that didn't do contact tracing to compare it to. There could be many other reasons that explain why South Korea or any other place is having whatever outcomes they are.WetEV said:LTLFTcomposite said:"Contact tracing" is another groupthink line, but totally useless in this situation. Works great for STDs like AIDS where even the most promiscuous can usually recall who they did it with, but the Woohoo virus is so contagious just passing within a few feet of someone may be enough to transmit it. You quickly find everyone has had indirect contact with the entire human race.
Hiring a bunch of people to do contact tracing is fine if you want to make busywork for all the people you're paying anyway with the money you printed, but it won't change any outcomes.
Contact tracing works in South Korea for covid-19.
LTLFTcomposite said:We don't have another version of South Korea that didn't do contact tracing to compare it to.
LTLFTcomposite said:There could be many other reasons that explain why South Korea or any other place is having whatever outcomes they are.
No distance is "completely totally safe". What matters is the spreading factor R.LTLFTcomposite said:Meanwhile, the six foot rule is being questioned, so there goes your bluetooth app out the window. Not that that would have ever worked because it can also be transmitted by touching surfaces.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-why-6-feet-may-not-be-enough-social-distance
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