cwerdna said:Don't have time to respond in much detail but we already have discussed.
Seasonal flu typically kills 12K to 61K people in the US per year (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). CFR (case fatality rate) is about 0.1%Oilpan4 said:We have made the cure for worse than the disease.
2 years ago 60,000 people died from the flu no one did anything different, it barely made the news. Not one single change was made or store closed.
From looking at https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en, CFR for COVID-19 is currently at 5.7%, which is 57x worse. Obviously, testing is a joke in the US and there are have been many more folks infected that never got tested.
Per https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=30885&p=582583&hilit=antibody#p582583, even a test that only gives 5 false positives per 100 people is terrible in a low infection rate population.Oilpan4 said:90 to 96% accurate isn't "a high number of false positives".
To copy and paste what I wrote already:HARRIS: Yeah, that is surprising. But here's a simple way to look at it. Say you are running a test that gives five falsely positive results in 100 people. Sounds like pretty good odds, right? But...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
HARRIS: But consider this, Steve - if 5% of a population is infected and you run the test on 100 people, you should get five true positives, but you also have those five false positives.
INSKEEP: Oh.
HARRIS: And Welch says there's no way to know which is which.
WELCH: The tests will be wrong half the time. Half the people will be falsely reassured.
HARRIS: So it's basically a coin flip.
To make comparisons to seasonal flu are crazy, the 12K to 61K annual deaths in the US from that (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html) are made with ZERO social distancing efforts, no stay at home orders, no closing of schools, prohibition of visiting nursing homes, no closing of non-essential businesses, no limits on how size of gatherings + people in stores, etc. There is a semi-effective flu vaccine each year that almost half of the US population gets each year AND effective treatments (e.g. tamiflu). Also, humans have built up some immunity to it over time unlike a novel (new) virus.
What I wrote on April 20th that we were past 40K deaths in the US. Now per https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, on the 29th, we're 58K deaths in the US.
You've seen what happens when people go to choir at https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=30885&p=582585&hilit=choir#p582585, right? Does flu do that? How about the Smithfield Foods pork processing plant? Look at the examples of plants affected and cases at https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/us-food-processing-plants-become-covid-19-hot-spots?
I posted this at work and haven't had a chance to read the whole thing (from April 22):
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/04/22/meat-packing-plants-covid-may-force-choice-worker-health-food/2995232001/
https://investigatemidwest.org/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19s-impact-on-meatpacking-workers-and-industry/ claimsAnd while experts say the industry has thus far maintained sufficient production despite infections in at least 2,200 workers at 48 plants, there are fears that the number of cases could continue to rise and that meatpacking plants will become the next disaster zones.
Just go search for COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes in the past month all around the country. Lifecare in Kirkland that got all the attention early on was WAY above the norm in terms of # of deaths per month.As of April 28, there have been at least 4,400 reported positive cases tied to meatpacking facilities at 80 plants in 26 states, and at least 18 reported worker deaths at 9 plants in 9 states.
Maybe you should get a free account on TiVoCommunity to look thru this thread?
https://www.tivocommunity.com/community/index.php?threads/for-the-i-worry-more-about-the-flu-crowd.576424/ (title "For the "I worry more about the flu" crowd.... ")
Someone at my work posted this tweet: https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1255323830660276225?s=19.
From looking at the total deaths graph at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/, that's about right. Perhaps you don't understand exponential growth?Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
5h
Reported US coronavirus deaths on date:
Feb. 28: 0 deaths
Mar. 28: 2,043 deaths
Apr. 28: 58,356 deaths
It may be time to ask why don't we do anything for flu when we know 60,000 people could die form it, aside from some people getting the flu shot. The military takes it seriously. They make everyone who doesn't have a nasty reaction to the flu shot get it. In my 14 years I only met one guy exempt from getting it.
And I'm totally in "the more worried about flu camp". I read everything I could find on flu during the h1n1 back when it happened. The last 200 years of flu have been brutal even considering international travel was much more limited and the population was much smaller, it still raged in the big cities.
Have you ever seen how they work people in meat plants? Probably not. I have done electrical work in them and I try to avoid them. They pack hundreds of people shoulder to shoulder and they cut up animals for 8 hours a day.
Some places they cram busses full of these people and bus them to the plant from the big city. I was working on one during the ebola scare, I could tell these people never had a chance during any kind of outbreak.
18 deaths out of 4,400 doesn't sound like a disaster. Have to remember that these people are working at or close to minimum wage so they're poor, the vast majority dont appear to exercise, almost all of them smoke.
I'm surprised the death rate isn't higher.
I already did. Last time I checked half the people dieing from this were nursing home occupants.
You would think that a much stronger response would be going to nursing homes. But no. The only state I know of sending an army of resources and personal into nursing homes to help is Florida.