Ghosn Still Sees 1.5 Million LEAFs

[Nubo]

Asked today at the annual results conference in Yokohama whether he wants to back off from his old target of 1.5 million Nissan Leaf by 2016, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn displayed an astounding degree of determination. He still believes in 1.5 million Leafs. Maybe a little later than 2016.

So far, Nissan sold 62,000 of the battery-operated car. In the last months, Ghosn observes “an acceleration of the sales of the Leaf.” The people who bought the leaf are happy, says Ghosn.

http://beforeitsnews.com/motor-junkies/2013/05/nissan-green-friday-ghosn-still-sees-1-5-million-leafs-2467140.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Also: "It makes sense to focus on Electric Vehicles"

http://green.autoblog.com/2013/05/10/carlos-ghosn-makes-sense-to-focus-on-electric-vehicles/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"When we started this effort on electric cars, the first challenge for us was to build credibility for the car itself. Because in the minds of many consumers, the electric car was a golf cart. Zero emission, yes, but everything else was wrong. This first challenge is over today. People driving the Leaf today know it's a real car. Acceleration, driving performance, silence – everything – it's a real car. They still complain. So, all the people who bought the Leaf are very happy. But a lot of people are testing the Leaf and not buying it. We asked them, why are you not buying the car?"

There were two main answers: high price and worries about charging infrastructure. In the US, Nissan dropped the base price of the 2013 Leaf by $6,400 earlier this year and Ghosn said Nissan will "continue to reduce the price as a function of the cost." This will happen not just because of reduced shipping costs and less reliance on currency fluctuations, but because there are still efficiency gains to be had in the new production locations, Ghosn said. "It's not finished."

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[TomT]

1.5 million would not require acceleration, it would require warp drive!

So far, Nissan sold 62,000 of the battery-operated car. In the last months, Ghosn observes “an acceleration of the sales of the Leaf.”

 

[johnqh]

If Leaf follows the same sales growth as Prius, it will reach total 200,000 cars by the end of 2016 in US. Add another 200,000 (?) outside US.

After that, the growth will be explosive.

I think it is possible that Leaf reaches 1.5 million by 2019, or 2018 the earliest.

 

[TomT]

I don't think it will since, unlike the Prius, the Leaf requires a different mindset and also acceptance of certain limitations...

If Leaf follows the same sales growth as Prius, it will reach total 200,000 cars by the end of 2016 in US. Add another 200,000 (?) outside US.
After that, the growth will be explosive.

 

[adric22]

Hmmm.. So if my math is correct then Nissan has to sell 1,438,000 more cars over the next 42 months. So that is an average of 34,238 Leafs per month. That definitely seems optimistic. But maybe he knows something we don't?

 

[TomT]

You mean like what a replacement battery costs? :lol:

But maybe he knows something we don't?

 

[Nubo]

Hmmm.. So if my math is correct then Nissan has to sell 1,438,000 more cars over the next 42 months. So that is an average of 34,238 Leafs per month. That definitely seems optimistic. But maybe he knows something we don't?

Your math is ok but your assumptions are wrong. Ghosn conceded that the target will likely come after 2016.

 

[johnqh]

I don't think it will since, unlike the Prius, the Leaf requires a different mindset and also acceptance of certain limitations...

If Leaf follows the same sales growth as Prius, it will reach total 200,000 cars by the end of 2016 in US. Add another 200,000 (?) outside US.
After that, the growth will be explosive.

Same thing can be said with Prius when it was introduced.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I see over 50,000 this year. 200,000 next year (US only) so 2016? probably not but 2018? no... but 1.5 million EVs from Nissan? absolutely!

 

[apvbguy]

I see over 50,000 this year. 200,000 next year (US only) so 2016? probably not but 2018? no... but 1.5 million EVs from Nissan? absolutely!

I think Mr Ghosn may be paying a little lip service to his board and the stock holders, his estimates sound a bit optimistic.
Until Nissan can solve the range/weight/cost puzzle the LEAF will not go mainstream

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I see over 50,000 this year. 200,000 next year (US only) so 2016? probably not but 2018? no... but 1.5 million EVs from Nissan? absolutely!

I think Mr Ghosn may be paying a little lip service to his board and the stock holders, his estimates sound a bit optimistic.
Until Nissan can solve the range/weight/cost puzzle the LEAF will not go mainstream

I think the LEAF will do well but a 5 passenger mid sized sedan will do better. too bad we have to wait another year for the infiniti LE

 

[Petecomp1]

Inspiring news, only 2 things will make it materialize IMHO: Petroleum supply disruption or a big battery breakthrough. Agree that the most beneficial announcement Ghos could make right now is a battery replacement plan for Leaf.

 

[TomT]

Perhaps for some. We have no need for a mid-size 5 passenger sedan ourselves... The Infiniti LE holds no interest for us unless it offers significantly better range and TMS...

I think the LEAF will do well but a 5 passenger mid sized sedan will do better. too bad we have to wait another year for the infiniti LE

 

[KJD]

Inspiring news, only 2 things will make it materialize IMHO: Petroleum supply disruption or a big battery breakthrough. Agree that the most beneficial announcement Ghos could make right now is a battery replacement plan for Leaf.

It is obvious that the existing warranty is not worth the paper it is written on. Nissan can and should do better.

If they ever want to see 1.5 million LEAF sales this problem will have to be addressed first.

 

[TomT]

I think that within 2 or 3 years, Tesla will completely own the U.S. EV market.

It is obvious that the existing warranty is not worth the paper it is written on. Nissan can and should do better.
If they ever want to see 1.5 million LEAF sales this problem will have to be addressed first.

 

[Nubo]

I'm not so sure Tesla has the ultimate formula. They're making impressive cars, but in terms of mainstreaming EVs I see problems with high-energy active thermal management and dependence on commodity 18650 form-factor cells. Clever but perhaps not elegant.

Not to say they can't overcome such issues as the tech evolves, but I like Nissan's approach. Which of course has some technical challenges of its own but in the long run, using battery energy to coddle batteries is something that I hope can be avoided.

I do agree Nissan needs some improvement in the battery warranty and customer assurance area to remove some very important impediments to consumer confidence. Last summer was heated in more ways than one and in another month or two there is going to be some hell to pay if they haven't gotten on top of this issue.

 

[apvbguy]

I think the LEAF will do well but a 5 passenger mid sized sedan will do better. too bad we have to wait another year for the infiniti LE

Passenger capacity may be an issue for many, I believe that the LEAF's range needs to be increased by at least 50-100% before the average Joe will be attracted to it. The Tesla is already there but it's cost is beyond the means of most people.

 

[Maxvla]

Dave, how do you figure 50,000 this year? We are only at about 6k so far this year on course to sell 15-20k at most. I know there are more markets than the US, but not enough to make up 35,000 units.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I think that within 2 or 3 years, Tesla will completely own the U.S. EV market.

It is obvious that the existing warranty is not worth the paper it is written on. Nissan can and should do better.
If they ever want to see 1.5 million LEAF sales this problem will have to be addressed first.

I'm going to give them six years if the Tesla Gen-III car and Tesla pickup truck are cost competitive with what's out there right then. When I think of all the cool things you could do with a pickup truck, I can see it being the "gotta have" for the cool crowd. Gen-III truly needs to be the LEAF-killer to have any hope of volume and have a low enough price for mass appeal. They have a HUGE factory... make it work.

I don't hold much hope for Roadster II to be much of a factor, since it will truly be limited production.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Dave, how do you figure 50,000 this year? We are only at about 6k so far this year on course to sell 15-20k at most. I know there are more markets than the US, but not enough to make up 35,000 units.

I Think We Will STart Seeing 5,000-6,000 Unit Monthly Sales By June Spurred By "Something" To Dk With A Pricing Announcement.
Not Really A Prediction, More A Wish Or A Dream