Ghosn Still Sees 1.5 Million LEAFs

[rcyoder]

I love my Leaf, but wish that Nissan gave you the option for a larger pack. At 36 kW in a Leaf you'd have a true 100 miles range. At 48 you should be really close to 150 miles - especially if you go for an all aluminum frame to pull some weight out - but you may have to make the vehicle larger to accommodate 2x the pack volume & weight.

I'm curious what sales would do if Nissan went with the option to add a 48 kW or 72 kW pack at the Infinity LE. With a luxury brand they could get away with some extra cost - leave the Leaf parked in the low end of the space before Tesla get's it's Gen III car out and use the Infinity brand to suck some air out of the luxury space.

The Model S is selling at reasonably high rates because of the big battery - people were willing to pay $10K to go from 40 kW -> 60 kW and another $10K to jump to 88 kW - in fact orders of the 40 kW pack car basically evaporated.

Nissan could throw Tesla's game back at them. Be a fun fight to watch. (And we consumers would only win.)

 

[ydnas7]

It should read 'Ghosn Still Sees 1.5 Million Renault/Nissan EVs'

Renault ZOE has bigger aspirations than the LEAF in terms of production capacity.

 

[RegGuheert]

It should read 'Ghosn Still Sees 1.5 Million Renault/Nissan EVs'

+1

That's exactly what I am thinking reading this...

 

[sonnylax]

I think the LEAF will do well but a 5 passenger mid sized sedan will do better. too bad we have to wait another year for the infiniti LE

Passenger capacity may be an issue for many, I believe that the LEAF's range needs to be increased by at least 50-100% before the average Joe will be attracted to it. The Tesla is already there but it's cost is beyond the means of most people.

this^^^^^^^^^

 

[TomT]

I don't think that is likely. Nissan is your typical big car company and simply is not nimble enough to move with the likes of Tesla...

Nissan could throw Tesla's game back at them. Be a fun fight to watch. (And we consumers would only win.)

 

[adric22]

I love my Leaf, but wish that Nissan gave you the option for a larger pack. At 36 kW in a Leaf you'd have a true 100 miles range. At 48 you should be really close to 150 miles - especially if you go for an all aluminum frame to pull some weight out - but you may have to make the vehicle larger to accommodate 2x the pack volume & weight.

Yes, yes.. Everyone keeps saying that. But where do you put a battery twice the size in the Leaf? I suspect Nissan is working on a larger car that will have room for more batteries. The only thing I can imagine is that they might could engineer a second battery pack to go in the hatchback area much like the Ford plug-in vehicles have done. They'd probably need to beef up the suspension some more for the extra weight. They might manage to squeeze that 36kW into a Leaf that way. That should get you around 110 miles of range. I'm sure there'd be people who would pay the extra to get it. That would actually be a pretty good strategy as long as they are still selling the low-end Leaf with the $28,000 entry price tag.

 

[KJD]

I love my Leaf, but wish that Nissan gave you the option for a larger pack. At 36 kW in a Leaf you'd have a true 100 miles range. At 48 you should be really close to 150 miles - especially if you go for an all aluminum frame to pull some weight out - but you may have to make the vehicle larger to accommodate 2x the pack volume & weight.

Yes, yes.. Everyone keeps saying that. But where do you put a battery twice the size in the Leaf? I suspect Nissan is working on a larger car that will have room for more batteries. The only thing I can imagine is that they might could engineer a second battery pack to go in the hatchback area much like the Ford plug-in vehicles have done. They'd probably need to beef up the suspension some more for the extra weight. They might manage to squeeze that 36kW into a Leaf that way. That should get you around 110 miles of range. I'm sure there'd be people who would pay the extra to get it. That would actually be a pretty good strategy as long as they are still selling the low-end Leaf with the $28,000 entry price tag.

Yes I agree, keep the LEAF base model S with 24kwh as the entry level model. Make the SV about 30kwh. The top of the LEAF line would be the SL at a 36kwh battery pack.

Price each car at a reasonable rate and let the customer decide how much range they are willing to pay for.

By the way I was interested in leasing a 2013 SL until I found out that you can have any color leather you want as long as that color is black. I was no longer interested after that. Why not offer a light and a dark color option in the 2013 SL.

 

[Maxvla]

Dave, how do you figure 50,000 this year? We are only at about 6k so far this year on course to sell 15-20k at most. I know there are more markets than the US, but not enough to make up 35,000 units.

I Think We Will STart Seeing 5,000-6,000 Unit Monthly Sales By June Spurred By "Something" To Dk With A Pricing Announcement.
Not Really A Prediction, More A Wish Or A Dream

Considering they can't even make 5-6,000 units per month, how do you figure they will pull that off? April sales were about 2000 units with 2300 left on dealer lots. That 2300 number only increased by 300 from March. That means they made approximately 2300 Leafs in one month.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Dave, how do you figure 50,000 this year? We are only at about 6k so far this year on course to sell 15-20k at most. I know there are more markets than the US, but not enough to make up 35,000 units.

I Think We Will STart Seeing 5,000-6,000 Unit Monthly Sales By June Spurred By "Something" To Dk With A Pricing Announcement.
Not Really A Prediction, More A Wish Or A Dream

Considering they can't even make 5-6,000 units per month, how do you figure they will pull that off? April sales were about 2000 units with 2300 left on dealer lots. That 2300 number only increased by 300 from March. That means they made approximately 2300 Leafs in one month.

Do I Really Have To Answer That Question? If You Choose To Base Your Prediction On The Shortcomings Of The Past Of A Factory With A 4 Month Production Then Do So.

 

[kentuckyleaf]

I love my Leaf, but wish that Nissan gave you the option for a larger pack. At 36 kW in a Leaf you'd have a true 100 miles range. At 48 you should be really close to 150 miles - especially if you go for an all aluminum frame to pull some weight out - but you may have to make the vehicle larger to accommodate 2x the pack volume & weight.

Yes, yes.. Everyone keeps saying that. But where do you put a battery twice the size in the Leaf? I suspect Nissan is working on a larger car that will have room for more batteries. The only thing I can imagine is that they might could engineer a second battery pack to go in the hatchback area much like the Ford plug-in vehicles have done. They'd probably need to beef up the suspension some more for the extra weight. They might manage to squeeze that 36kW into a Leaf that way. That should get you around 110 miles of range. I'm sure there'd be people who would pay the extra to get it. That would actually be a pretty good strategy as long as they are still selling the low-end Leaf with the $28,000 entry price tag.

I still think Nissan should offer a small range extender like the BMW, something that can generate around 10 - 15 kW while driving. If I'm going to drive a long distance, I know where I'm going when I get in the car. No need to wait for the battery to drain like the BMW before kicking in the extender, have an "extended range" button I can press, and the extender kicks in below 80% charge and stays on until I shut the car off. This same extender can provide the heat and defrost that many of us need in the winter, and offers the ability to use the 80% charge option year round. I know this takes us closer to the Volt, and looking at my situation, that's what I'm after. More battery only range and smaller range extender than the Volt. Then all we would need is a QC infrastructure that is 150 miles apart along the interstates. I might still need to drive 60mph in the right hand lane, but I can get to the next city. I can warm up in the wintertime, and I can still commute 100% on battery in the summer. You could sell millions of this car

 

[johnqh]

All the wishes are fine, but they all add significant cost.

So I repeat my wish, with little addition manufacturing cost:

Design a plug-in extended battery pack. Leaf is still 24kwh. The battery pack can be 12kwh, 300lbs and add 40% range. When you want a long trip, go to a Nissan dealer to rent it.

And for those who have long commute, make it a purchase option.

 

[kentuckyleaf]

All the wishes are fine, but they all add significant cost.

So I repeat my wish, with little addition manufacturing cost:

Design a plug-in extended battery pack. Leaf is still 24kwh. The battery pack can be 12kwh, 300lbs and add 40% range. When you want a long trip, go to a Nissan dealer to rent it.

And for those who have long commute, make it a purchase option.

And I agree, this could be an option, and the fuel powered range extender could be another option. If a 12kwh battery weighs in at 300 lbs, it might as well be a hard installed option, I can't pick it up. If you figure the extended battery at $300 a kwh, it is a $3600 option. A 15 kw generator could be a $5000 option, and it will take you much further than a 12kw battery, especially in the winter when you have an awesome use for the waste heat. So we have a Leaf, a Leaf +, and a Leaf +G. I know there are economies of scale, so you wouldn't want a 10kw, 12kw and 15kw fuel powered range extender. Many of the Leaf's cold weather problems would go away with a half gallon of fuel during a commute.

 

[TonyWilliams]

... they might could engineer a second battery pack to go in the hatchback area much like the Ford plug-in vehicles have done. They'd probably need to beef up the suspension some more for the extra weight. They might manage to squeeze that 36kW into a Leaf that way. That should get you around 110 miles of range.

Already considered, and I believe likely to be implemented, although I doubt it will get to 36kW (HOURS).

 

[TonyWilliams]

Many of the Leaf's cold weather problems would go away with a half gallon of fuel during a commute.

Or propane, CNG, etc.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

I think that within 2 or 3 years, Tesla will completely own the U.S. EV market.

It is obvious that the existing warranty is not worth the paper it is written on. Nissan can and should do better.
If they ever want to see 1.5 million LEAF sales this problem will have to be addressed first.

No way. Their cars are just too damn expensive and will be for the foreseeable future.

Even if they had a competitor to the Leaf today they lack the dealer network.

Nissan is certainly the best hope for EV prevalence at the moment.

The Model S is selling at reasonably high rates because of the big battery

Also because it's a far nicer car than the Leaf. The S is a luxury sedan and the Leaf is an entry level econobox, really.

Nissan will not be using fuel extenders, no chance at all and nor should they. You just can't make everybody happy and Nissan needs to do what it's doing: lower costs as aggressively as possible. You start telling a lay person that the car has good range, and oh if it doesn't you can rent a pack from your nissan dealer or use this gas range extender and 99% of potential customers will want out of the conversation as soon as possible. This works in the Volt because it's irreparably and seamlessly coupled to the vehicle and because it's an absolute necessity (its pack is simply too small to exist without the gas engine).

I think the Leaf is a great car and would definitely buy another one.

 

[Nubo]

Nissan is certainly the best hope for EV prevalence at the moment.

The Model S is selling at reasonably high rates because of the big battery

Also because it's a far nicer car than the Leaf. The S is a luxury sedan and the Leaf is an entry level econobox, really.

Yeah, the LEAF gets that a lot. I think some of that comes because of its close resemblance in shape to the Versa. But it's really not "just an electric Versa". I think the LEAF is fairly well appointed. When I think "econobox" I think of something that is tinny, poorly appointed and kind of short on room and comfort. The LEAF is really none of those things. It has quite a few nice features, feels solid, and has a LOT of room. Certainly not a luxury car but I think good enough for something to happen. And that is, people coming to lust after the Tesla, and then coming around to the conclusion that the LEAF gives them most of what they really want, for a third of the price!

Nissan will not be using fuel extenders, no chance at all and nor should they. You just can't make everybody happy and Nissan needs to do what it's doing: lower costs as aggressively as possible. You start telling a lay person that the car has good range, and oh if it doesn't you can rent a pack from your nissan dealer or use this gas range extender and 99% of potential customers will want out of the conversation as soon as possible.

Absolutely agree, and the same applies to any kind of temporary add-on battery module. Put that into the sales talk and the entire car instantly becomes questionable. Offering multiple built-in battery capacities is a great idea. But telling someone to come on down and hook up a "booster box" just makes the whole thing seem too much of an experiment.

 

[adric22]

Design a plug-in extended battery pack. Leaf is still 24kwh. The battery pack can be 12kwh, 300lbs and add 40% range. When you want a long trip, go to a Nissan dealer to rent it.

And for those who have long commute, make it a purchase option.

Seriously? This is ridiculous. An extra battery pack would be fine for those with long commutes that want to pay for the added feature. But renting it for long trips? How much further do you think 12Kwh is going to take you? I doubt it would be worth a trip to the dealer to have it installed so you could go an extra 30 miles on that trip?