July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[TNleaf]

Many Americans have a dependence on gasoline, bordering on clinical addiction.

The LEAF has allowed me to kick my gasoline habit, cold turkey!

+1
:mrgreen:

 

[Nubo]

...oops wrong thread.....

 

[spike09]

Nissan reported a record February for U.S. sales. 106,731 total units, 4,732 imported cars. Therefore the Leaf was responsible for 10% of Nissan US imported car sales.

Here is a link to the sales chart http://nissanmedia.iconicweb.com/mediasite/attachments/NNA_February_Sales_FINAL.pdf

 

[cwerdna]

But there is one more problem -- the plug. Nissan is going to have to find a way to bundle plug (ok, EVSE) installation into the price. While we may have all gotten over the hurdle, it is a huge impediment to others from a psychological perspective.

Have you noticed who else is driving these cars? For now, this car is going to sell to (1) the true believers; (2) the rich with an antipathy for foreign oil. All other markets for the car will be of secondary importance until the price comes down, the range goes up, and the up front plug cost issue goes away.

Exactly. Bundling a 220V EVSE could help spur some sales. I look for factory to dealer incentives in a few months. Wait and watch, it's going to happen.

But you drive home the larger point. Until the range is increased substantially and the price is reduced, EV's will remain a niche vehicle. This is quite obvious. It's tough for some to be objective because their own enthusiasm clouds reasonable analysis.

If this car had a $20,000 sticker on it, they could be selling in bunches. That's a reasonable price for what this car provides. At almost twice that price, it just won't make sense, especially for someone that can only own one car. And getting the EVSE, and finding a way to charge it in a car port in an apt complex, and not going to the concert tonight because it's 60 miles from here and I can't make it there and back. And on and on it goes.

These are all reasonable and understandable obstacles that will will cause someone to choose to buy a petrol powered vehicle instead.

The cost of fuel will not matter, even if it rises to $4.50/$4.75 a gallon. People will just buy less of other things to budget fuel for their vehicle, or they'll drive less. That's the simplest thing to do. They need their car to transport them so they do less pleasure driving.

I'm going to have to agree w/Train, esp. the part I bolded.

This isn't a very good direction for Leaf sales given the wider availability.

 

[jkirkebo]

I think Nissan is continuing to shift deliveries to other countries. In Norway, for example, 214 Leafs were sold in February. Half the number of US deliveries but with 1/65th the population. The Leaf is the 9th most sold car here so far this year with 1.9% market share.

Yes, I suspect Nissan may be intentionally selling as small a percentage it can, in America, out of it's about 3,300 a month (?) total production.

AFAIK, the US LEAF price is the lowest in the world, and at current exchange rates, Nissan is probably losing quite a bit of money, on each US sale.

I wouldn't count on any US incentives, or other effective price cuts, until US production, at much lower cost, starts next year.

And maybe, not even then.

What do you have to pay for a LEAF, in Norway?

The Leaf costs around $49k here, including delivey charge. This is about the same as a VW Golf 1.6TDI costs, though the Leaf has MUCH more standard equipment.

Gas was $10.33/gallon last time I checked.

 

[kmp647]

IF gas was $10.33 a gallon you would see them selling here.

I do think we will see some sort of incentives this year, likely tied to the charging dock, and or installation.

some sort of coupon or whatever, buy a leaf and get the charge dock for free up to whatever $2500 or something.

leaves 1k for the unit and $1500 towards the typical AV routine.


IMO they have 3 problems with Leaf 1. high initial costs , car and charge dock (even with incentives)
2. styling and image of the car needs work (make it sportier, colors, interior,wheels)
3. general public understanding of electric cars is still low (range, charging etc)

 

[adric22]

some sort of coupon or whatever, buy a leaf and get the charge dock for free up to whatever $2500 or something.

I wonder if a better solution would be to include an auto-sensing 120/240 volt portable EVSE with the car to begin with? Basically, something similar to the modified EVSE that Ingineer is making. I'd like to see it designed in a way that it has a proprietary power connector embedded into the EVSE box and then several pigtails included that would make use of 120V and several types of 240V sockets. I'd also add some kind of indicator LEDs to let the end-user know that it is running on 120 or 240 volts and have a switch to select max amps.

Such a solution is not as elegant as having a wall-mounted EVSE in the garage, but the way I see it if they are spending the money to include an EVSE with the car already, it would cost a lot more money to also bundle in a wall-mount L2 EVSE. Might as well just beef up the EVSE they have and I bet that would suffice for a lot of people and be much cheaper than including a second EVSE.

People could always opt for the second EVSE later, but it at least they could drive home the car and it be a bit more usable right away.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

I wonder if a better solution would be to include an auto-sensing 120/240 volt portable EVSE with the car to begin with?

Good point, this is so strange that this was not included, if it is possible for computers and other devices that can work anywhere and everywhere, 120V 220V 240V you name it.
I am not electrical code expert, but heard that 240V devices have to be hardwired, but again not dryer or welder so I am not sure why evse?

 

[kmp647]

Nissan could easily provide an EVSE to a leaf purchaser, put it in the car at port, or ship it to the owner at delivery.
they could also make or source an EVSE at very low cost.

with all of their experience and ability to negotiate with parts mfrs

specifically if I worked for Nissan i would ask Panasonic to bid a 240v plug in or hardwire evse with UL approval

make target $395 retail and bundle with car right on the window sticker.
sell em retail right on the current leaf journey site also.

Its a wonder Nissan isnt seeking some help and advice here

 

[spike09]

I wonder if a better solution would be to include an auto-sensing 120/240 volt portable EVSE with the car to begin with?

Good point, this is so strange that this was not included, if it is possible for computers and other devices that can work anywhere and everywhere, 120V 220V 240V you name it.
I am not electrical code expert, but heard that 240V devices have to be hardwired, but again not dryer or welder so I am not sure why evse?

The National Electric Code has a whole sub-section on EVSEs. They can be plugged in or hardwired. But there are multiple 240V outlets in common use. Maybe if everyone decided to adopt the use the same 240V outlet it would be worth including a dual voltage portable EVSE. The cost involved in all those pigtails is only something Tesla can afford to do. One reason for all the different types of 240V outlets is amperage. The other is grounding which is why that idea probably never gets passed the legal department at a big car company. Compare that to the industry standard 120V 15A grounded outlet that is ubiquitous in the USA.

 

[GRA]

But there is one more problem -- the plug. Nissan is going to have to find a way to bundle plug (ok, EVSE) installation into the price. While we may have all gotten over the hurdle, it is a huge impediment to others from a psychological perspective.

Have you noticed who else is driving these cars? For now, this car is going to sell to (1) the true believers; (2) the rich with an antipathy for foreign oil. All other markets for the car will be of secondary importance until the price comes down, the range goes up, and the up front plug cost issue goes away.

Exactly. Bundling a 220V EVSE could help spur some sales. I look for factory to dealer incentives in a few months. Wait and watch, it's going to happen.

But you drive home the larger point. Until the range is increased substantially and the price is reduced, EV's will remain a niche vehicle. This is quite obvious. It's tough for some to be objective because their own enthusiasm clouds reasonable analysis.

If this car had a $20,000 sticker on it, they could be selling in bunches. That's a reasonable price for what this car provides. At almost twice that price, it just won't make sense, especially for someone that can only own one car. And getting the EVSE, and finding a way to charge it in a car port in an apt complex, and not going to the concert tonight because it's 60 miles from here and I can't make it there and back. And on and on it goes.

These are all reasonable and understandable obstacles that will will cause someone to choose to buy a petrol powered vehicle instead.

The cost of fuel will not matter, even if it rises to $4.50/$4.75 a gallon. People will just buy less of other things to budget fuel for their vehicle, or they'll drive less. That's the simplest thing to do. They need their car to transport them so they do less pleasure driving.

I'm going to have to agree w/Train, esp. the part I bolded.

This isn't a very good direction for Leaf sales given the wider availability.

+1 to both. Even the latest (currently vaporware) battery announcement by Envia won't do it, assuming a more realistic doubling of specific energy (Wh/kg) and halving of $/kWh: 400-500 cycles to 80% DoD is inadequate -- probably 1000-1,200 at a minimum is necessary to allow the battery to last at least ten years/150,000 miles at lesser DoDs.

If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh), you can either double the range for the same price (useful, but still too expensive) or drop the MSRP down below $30k and keep the same range. The best option, IMO, would be to provide one lower-cost version with a freeway range of 100 miles, and another with double current freeway range at the current price. Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.

 

[ENIAC]

If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh)

Rumored where? The reports are the LEAF battery pack was $375/kWh two years ago.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/05/nissan-leaf-battery-packs-break-the-400kwh-barrier/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[spike09]

+1 to both. Even the latest (currently vaporware) battery announcement by Envia won't do it, assuming a more realistic doubling of specific energy (Wh/kg) and halving of $/kWh: 400-500 cycles to 80% DoD is inadequate -- probably 1000-1,200 at a minimum is necessary to allow the battery to last at least ten years/150,000 miles at lesser DoDs.

If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh), you can either double the range for the same price (useful, but still too expensive) or drop the MSRP down below $30k and keep the same range. The best option, IMO, would be to provide one lower-cost version with a freeway range of 100 miles, and another with double current freeway range at the current price. Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.

I would trade my 100 mile range /10 year warranty battery pack for 400 mile range /3 year warranty battery pack in a heartbeat.

 

[Nubo]

... Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.

Ever since the '70's I've been hearing the argument "EVs won't be viable until..."

What I find interesting is that the bar keeps getting raised on the "until" part.

I guess that's a good thing in that it reflects the increasing capabilities of EV technology. They've been getting better. Meanwhile, oil is getting more expensive and scarcer. Where those two trends intersect is the "until" point. For me and lots of people here, that time has already come. That's the ignition point. Now that the game is on for real amongst the major car manufacturers, the rate of improvements is bound to accelerate.

 

[BlueSL]

If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh), you can either double the range for the same price (useful, but still too expensive) or drop the MSRP down below $30k and keep the same range. The best option, IMO, would be to provide one lower-cost version with a freeway range of 100 miles, and another with double current freeway range at the current price. Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.

Correctamundo. I have already decided that when my lease expires in June 2014, if there is no "100 miles at freeway speeds" Nissan Leaf available (or rolling out shortly for MY2015), I will get a Tesla or other EV that will go that far. I am worried about it. Nissan has earned my business. I totally respect and admire Nissan for getting EVs to this point and want to remain in the Nissan camp if possible.

 

[hill]

I wonder if a better solution would be to include an auto-sensing 120/240 volt portable EVSE with the car to begin with?

Good point, this is so strange that this was not included, if it is possible for computers and other devices that can work anywhere and everywhere, 120V 220V 240V you name it.
I am not electrical code expert, but heard that 240V devices have to be hardwired, but again not dryer or welder so I am not sure why evse?

The National Electric Code has a whole sub-section on EVSEs. They can be plugged in or hardwired. But there are multiple 240V outlets in common use. Maybe if everyone decided to adopt the use the same 240V outlet it would be worth including a dual voltage portable EVSE. The cost involved in all those pigtails is only something Tesla can afford to do . . . . . snip

well I can't afford a Tesla - but my 4 adapter cords cost a whopping $55 to make up. Granted, I did already have a few feet of #10 3and 4 wire laying around ... just sayn' ... it ain't that much.

... and no ... hard wiring isn't a law.

If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh)

Rumored where? The reports are the LEAF battery pack was $375/kWh two years ago.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/05/nissan-leaf-battery-packs-break-the-400kwh-barrier/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

sigh ... another one to throw onto the "myths" dung heap

 

[Herm]

If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh), you can either double the range for the same price (useful, but still too expensive) or drop the MSRP down below $30k and keep the same range.

There is another option if you double the energy density (power also).. provide two options on range using the same physical space in the car. Lets say a Leaf Classic for those that can live with 100 miles of range at a much lower cost and those that want the Leaf 200 option.. plus an easily replaceable battery pack. Not everyone needs the weight and range of a 200 mile pack.

 

[GRA]

If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh)

Rumored where? The reports are the LEAF battery pack was $375/kWh two years ago.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/05/nissan-leaf-battery-packs-break-the-400kwh-barrier/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Don't remember where (it's been awhile, maybe in a thread here), but the numbers were in the same ballpark as rumors about the Volt's cells and pack ($8/10,000 for them). If Nissan really is able to produce the pack for $9,000 you've got to wonder why the car is as expensive as it is relative to the Volt, especially with the lack of a TMS.

 

[GRA]

... Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.

Ever since the '70's I've been hearing the argument "EVs won't be viable until..."

What I find interesting is that the bar keeps getting raised on the "until" part.

I guess that's a good thing in that it reflects the increasing capabilities of EV technology. They've been getting better. Meanwhile, oil is getting more expensive and scarcer. Where those two trends intersect is the "until" point. For me and lots of people here, that time has already come. That's the ignition point. Now that the game is on for real amongst the major car manufacturers, the rate of improvements is bound to accelerate.

I don't think the bar has been raised significantly on EVs since the '50s. The ultimate range requirement is for at least 4 hours of range @ freeway speeds, worst case, which virtually every ICE on the market can do, for a comparable price to an ICE. Four hours is a fairly typical human limit (bathroom/food breaks), and is unrelated to the ultimate range capability of the powertrain. Some people can go 5-6 hours or even more, especially if you're an astronaut who's used to wearing diapers :lol:, but 4 hours will cover the vast majority of day and weekend trips.

 

[spike09]

... Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.

Ever since the '70's I've been hearing the argument "EVs won't be viable until..."

What I find interesting is that the bar keeps getting raised on the "until" part.

I guess that's a good thing in that it reflects the increasing capabilities of EV technology. They've been getting better. Meanwhile, oil is getting more expensive and scarcer. Where those two trends intersect is the "until" point. For me and lots of people here, that time has already come. That's the ignition point. Now that the game is on for real amongst the major car manufacturers, the rate of improvements is bound to accelerate.

I don't think the bar has been raised significantly on EVs since the '50s. The ultimate range requirement is for at least 4 hours of range @ freeway speeds, worst case, which virtually every ICE on the market can do, for a comparable price to an ICE. Four hours is a fairly typical human limit (bathroom/food breaks), and is unrelated to the ultimate range capability of the powertrain. Some people can go 5-6 hours or even more, especially if you're an astronaut who's used to wearing diapers :lol:, but 4 hours will cover the vast majority of day and weekend trips.

Interstates and gas stations have make long distance driving easier but I never drive more than a couple of hours straight without taking a break. Driver fatigue causes 20% of driving fatalities. Another reason to drive a Leaf!

People who drive cars that can reliably go over 4 hours straight in comfort would rather travel by air . :lol: