July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[GRA]

I don't think the bar has been raised significantly on EVs since the '50s. The ultimate range requirement is for at least 4 hours of range @ freeway speeds, worst case, which virtually every ICE on the market can do, for a comparable price to an ICE. Four hours is a fairly typical human limit (bathroom/food breaks), and is unrelated to the ultimate range capability of the powertrain. Some people can go 5-6 hours or even more, especially if you're an astronaut who's used to wearing diapers :lol:, but 4 hours will cover the vast majority of day and weekend trips.

Interstates and gas stations have make long distance driving easier but I never drive more than a couple of hours straight without taking a break. Driver fatigue causes 20% of driving fatalities. Another reason to drive a Leaf!

People who drive cars that can reliably go over 4 hours straight in comfort would rather travel by air . :lol:

I'd like to see you go by air to some of the trailheads I regularly drive to , and at a reasonable price. As it happens, my current car will go at least 6 hours plus a reserve (and I've done it on a couple of occasions, even if I prefer not to), and the previous one was good for 5 hours.

 

[Rusty]

People who drive cars that can reliably go over 4 hours straight in comfort would rather travel by air . :lol:

I was really excited about the Volt concept's 12.3G tank and 50 MPG CS range of > 600 miles. That's usually the most I like to do in a day (though I've done more). The 350-400 mile CS range of the Volt means I have to stop to get gas in the middle of a day's drive. But I have to stop for food anyway, so it's just an inconvenience.

I will say my Volt is the most comfortable car I've ever driven on a long haul run. And I'd rather drive than fly...

 

[Kane]

GM to Idle Chevy Volt Output as Sales Slow
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577257681918603106.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Below 10,000 sold in US (about 5,000 in stock) = not good.

304 Opel Ampera sold in Europe in 2011
http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2012/03/03/europe-full-year-2011-top-318-all-models-ranking-now-available/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
In Europe over 8,000 i-MiEV (2608), iOn (1926), C-Zero (1830) and Leaf (1726) sold in 2011.

 

[redLEAF]

I don't think the bar has been raised significantly on EVs since the '50s. The ultimate range requirement is for at least 4 hours of range @ freeway speeds, worst case, which virtually every ICE on the market can do, for a comparable price to an ICE. Four hours is a fairly typical human limit (bathroom/food breaks), and is unrelated to the ultimate range capability of the powertrain. Some people can go 5-6 hours or even more, especially if you're an astronaut who's used to wearing diapers :lol:, but 4 hours will cover the vast majority of day and weekend trips.

Interstates and gas stations have make long distance driving easier but I never drive more than a couple of hours straight without taking a break. Driver fatigue causes 20% of driving fatalities. Another reason to drive a Leaf!

People who drive cars that can reliably go over 4 hours straight in comfort would rather travel by air . :lol:

I'd like to see you go by air to some of the trailheads I regularly drive to , and at a reasonable price. As it happens, my current car will go at least 6 hours plus a reserve (and I've done it on a couple of occasions, even if I prefer not to), and the previous one was good for 5 hours.

Very interesting on what people will drive on a stretch ... we owned one of the 2nd gen TDI's (a '98 New Beetle) and had taken a trip from Chicago to Panama City, FL, we did the round trip for about $48 in diesel at the time, can't remember the per gal. price ... that car was a kidney buster as seem to recall we could get almost 700 miles with it's 14.5 tank and just a bit under 50 mpg at 75 mph highway speeds. The front heated cloth seats were quite comfortable but the backs were tough on our kids who needed to stretch at least every 4 to 6 hours. With baggage fees, high parking fees or taxi/limo costs and tolls, etc. you also really need to also look at how much of your time is wasted before you're 'in the air' as well (TSA body scan's, etc.) -- for a relatively 'short' 4 or 6 hour driving trip, we'll drive because flying adds typically 2 hours on both ends and don't get me started on trying to save money by using a connection! Now if you're traveling alone (like flying your kid home from college versus going to get him and driving both ways) that might be an exception or tell the kid to try to car pool both ways when the airfare gets too expensive. In any case, I think most people would be happy to get a 4 hour highway driving range with an EV with a reasonable and accessible refueling option that would take about the same amount of time as a bathroom and gas break with an ICE. Although it's at the top end, 300 range (4 X 75 mph) would seem to suffice; but w/o infrastructure with QC it's pointless right now. In the near term, something like the Ford C-Max Energi with a short pure EV range around town and a highway range of 500 would be an OK compromise but again on your long trip you won't get to recharge it much to offset the pure gas consumption. It's a chicken and egg aspect ... if they build EV's with better range perhaps we'll see many more QC EVSE's being setup alongside the most traveled routes but its going to take time. For now, our LEAF has 'accepted' its role as our around town car and it has done that quite well !

 

[dgpcolorado]

All this talk of how far one can drive in a day (my personal record is 21 hours, 1072 miles, now that I'm older I limit it to ten to twelve hours; audio books help a lot) or at a single stretch, misses the fact that an EV doesn't have to be all things to all drivers to be useful. With 60% of households having more than one car and a large majority of drivers driving less than LEAF range most days, even the current short-range EVs can provide functional gas-free transportation for many. For a one car household, a plug-in hybrid like the Volt may make more sense and will save a LOT of gas, even if the CS mileage is mediocre.

The problem isn't 300 mile EVs plus QC everywhere, it is educating the public to realize that a short-range EV as a primary car, plus a regular car or hybrid as a backup for long trips, is a viable solution to lowering the use of gas/diesel right now. If/when affordable 300 mile EVs become available and QC infrastructure is in place, great. But it isn't necessary to make a difference today, IMHO.

 

[evnow]

304 Opel Ampera sold in Europe in 2011
http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2012/03/03/europe-full-year-2011-top-318-all-models-ranking-now-available/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
In Europe over 8,000 i-MiEV (2608), iOn (1926), C-Zero (1830) and Leaf (1726) sold in 2011.

Thanks.

 

[edatoakrun]

"dgpcolorado"]All this talk of how far one can drive in a day (my personal record is 21 hours, 1072 miles, now that I'm older I limit it to ten to twelve hours...

Off topic.

I believe my record may be only 745 miles.

But that was winter break 1982, From Estrella, Baja California, to Berkeley CA in a "vintage" Citroen, with 4 badly hungover passengers, requiring frequent stops, for the elimination of various bodily fluids, of various viscosity.

And I think I beat your average speed, as it only took about 14 hours, IIRC, despite the minimally maintained Mexican roads (pay for the toll roads? Hell no!), delay at the border crossing (we had to down those beers we were caught with, in excess of the allowed import quota) and the lowest octane (81?) Mexican gas we ran on, until filling up near Bakersfield.

Oh, to be young (and stupid) again.

 

[GRA]

"dgpcolorado"]All this talk of how far one can drive in a day (my personal record is 21 hours, 1072 miles, now that I'm older I limit it to ten to twelve hours...

Off topic.

I believe my record may be only 745 miles.

But that was winter break 1982, From Estrella, Baja California, to Berkeley CA in a "vintage" Citroen, with 4 badly hungover passengers, requiring frequent stops, for the elimination of various bodily fluids, of various viscosity.

And I think I beat your average speed, as it only took about 14 hours, IIRC, despite the minimally maintained Mexican roads (pay for the toll roads? Hell no!), delay at the border crossing (we had to down those beers we were caught with, in excess of the allowed import quota) and the lowest octane (81?) Mexican gas we ran on, until filling up near Bakersfield.

Oh, to be young (and stupid) again.

Even more OT. 1003 miles in 25? hours via I-70/US-50/I-80, Carbondale, Co. to Oakland Ca. (after installing a PV system on a backcountry ski hut). Time includes a 4 hour or so nap, an encounter with a suicidal deer, and one with a (non-suicidal) CHP officer

 

[lpickup]

Interstates and gas stations have make long distance driving easier but I never drive more than a couple of hours straight without taking a break. Driver fatigue causes 20% of driving fatalities. Another reason to drive a Leaf!

People who drive cars that can reliably go over 4 hours straight in comfort would rather travel by air . :lol:

Certainly not a record, but when we go to visit the in-laws we drive for 16 hours, 13 of which the car is in motion. We COULD fly I suppose, but the expense of taking 4 people on the plane, with luggage, and having to rent a car on the other end anyway (in-laws are 90 minute drive from nearest airport) plus all the delays and hassles associated with air travel, I really prefer to drive that one. I really don't foresee making that trip in a BEV for a LONG time with only 3 hours of downtime over a 16 hour period.

 

[Nubo]

I don't think the bar has been raised significantly on EVs since the '50s. The ultimate range requirement is for at least 4 hours of range @ freeway speeds, worst case, which virtually every ICE on the market can do, for a comparable price to an ICE. Four hours is a fairly typical human limit (bathroom/food breaks), and is unrelated to the ultimate range capability of the powertrain. Some people can go 5-6 hours or even more, especially if you're an astronaut who's used to wearing diapers :lol:, but 4 hours will cover the vast majority of day and weekend trips.

Well, I drove my Miata from Fullerton, CA to Cuyahoga County, OH in 39 hours. I did nap for 90 minutes in Shamrock Tx, and made the mistake of calling home from Dayton, OH, which cost me another 90 minutes (Mom is a talkaholic) :lol:

I guess I could set that as a monumental bar -- "EVs won't be practical unless I can cross a continent at one go"!

As an only car, perhaps there is that need for a car that can handle the endless road trip. But there are many millions of 2-vehicle households where even today's EV will be more than adequate. We need to dispel the notion that an EV has to be capable of serving the complete satisfaction of every single buyer. We don't hold any ICE model to that standard.

 

[dgpcolorado]

As an only car, perhaps there is that need for a car that can handle the endless road trip. But there are many millions of 2-vehicle households where even today's EV will be more than adequate. We need to dispel the notion that an EV has to be capable of serving the complete satisfaction of every single buyer. We don't hold any ICE model to that standard.

Exactly right.

 

[SteveInSeattle]

It seems more than clear that the Volt is not a market success-- sales are limited by demand, not just availability. What do we make of the low February Leaf sales? Is Leaf demand dropping as well? How can we differentiate demand from availability to make sense of this? How long is the wait if I sign up for one today?

 

[thankyouOB]

20,000 electric cars in the USA. They are wearing out the roads and not paying their fair share.
Let's tax them right away!!!
Those damn EV drivers want the rest of us to foot their bills -- damn freeloaders.

 

[GRA]

As an only car, perhaps there is that need for a car that can handle the endless road trip. But there are many millions of 2-vehicle households where even today's EV will be more than adequate. We need to dispel the notion that an EV has to be capable of serving the complete satisfaction of every single buyer. We don't hold any ICE model to that standard.

No one has suggested that BEVs aren't practical for many households in the conditions you describe, only that BEVs won't reach mainstream acceptance until they can provide approximately the same performance at the same price as an ICE.

 

[adric22]

No one has suggested that BEVs aren't practical for many households in the conditions you describe, only that BEVs won't reach mainstream acceptance until they can provide approximately the same performance at the same price as an ICE.

I'm not convinced of that either. People used to say DVD players would never reach mainstream consumers unless they were as cheap as VCRs and could record TV shows. And while both issues eventually became reality, DVD players were mainstream well before either took place.

Its all about pros and cons. People have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons. In my case, they certainly do. If gas prices continue to rise, I imagine the pros will overtake the cons for a lot of people.

 

[GRA]

No one has suggested that BEVs aren't practical for many households in the conditions you describe, only that BEVs won't reach mainstream acceptance until they can provide approximately the same performance at the same price as an ICE.

I'm not convinced of that either. People used to say DVD players would never reach mainstream consumers unless they were as cheap as VCRs and could record TV shows. And while both issues eventually became reality, DVD players were mainstream well before either took place.

Its all about pros and cons. People have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons. In my case, they certainly do. If gas prices continue to rise, I imagine the pros will overtake the cons for a lot of people.

As I stated earlier, my personal opinion is that they will 'jump the chasm' to mainstream acceptance when they achieve at least two hours of worst case freeway range at about the same price as an ICE (assuming L3 charging or battery swapping infrastructure is widely available), but that the _ultimate requirement_ to replace ICEs is 4 hours or more at the same price.

 

[tps]

As I stated earlier, my personal opinion is that they will 'jump the chasm' to mainstream acceptance when they achieve at least two hours of worst case freeway range at about the same price as an ICE (assuming L3 charging or battery swapping infrastructure is widely available), but that the _ultimate requirement_ to replace ICEs is 4 hours or more at the same price.

I bought my LEAF not to replace an ICE car, but to have a different driving experience. Had I wanted to replace my ICE, I'd have bought another ICE. One factor in mainstream acceptance of EVs is when many people realize they don't need to replace the range of an ICE. Also when they ride in or drive an EV, they will "get" the advantages of the EV driving experience. I don't mind giving up the range of the ICE, which I almost never used anyway, to get the smooth and quiet EV experience. And I don't have to deal with that smelly, obnoxious stuff called gasoline anymore. Every day when I get into my LEAF I am thankful that I get to have another day of the EV driving exprience. Most people don't know what they're missing. But they'll learn when they see their friends and neighbors driving LEAFs.

Honestly, I think the biggest factor holding back the floodgates of EV acceptance right now is price. I know several people who, after seeing my LEAF, want one themselves, but can't afford it.

 

[TomT]

As much as we like our Leaf, for the foreseeable future our second vehicle will remain an ICE of some kind, be it ICE, PHEV or HEV. We simply need the extra range, size and carrying capacity too often to give it up entirely... I suspect that many share this same situation.

I bought my LEAF not to replace an ICE car, but to have a different driving experience. Had I wanted to replace my ICE, I'd have bought another ICE. One factor in mainstream acceptance of EVs is when many people realize they don't need to replace the range of an ICE. Also when they ride in or drive an EV, they will "get" the advantages of the EV driving experience. I don't mind giving up the range of the ICE, which I almost never used anyway, to get the smooth and quiet EV experience. And I don't have to deal with that smelly, obnoxious stuff called gasoline anymore. Every day when I get into my LEAF I am thankful that I get to have another day of the EV driving exprience. Most people don't know what they're missing. But they'll learn when they see their friends and neighbors driving LEAFs.

 

[SanDust]

It seems more than clear that the Volt is not a market success-- sales are limited by demand, not just availability. What do we make of the low February Leaf sales? Is Leaf demand dropping as well? How can we differentiate demand from availability to make sense of this? How long is the wait if I sign up for one today?

It's not clear to me that either car is "not a market success". The Leaf had a bad month, but over the last few months, compared to hybrid/green cars, both the Volt and the Leaf are selling better than most. Other than the Prius and maybe the Camry I don't see anything else really outselling them, which is surprising given their price points and how new they are to the market. Not to mention the manufactured "fire" controversy.

It took the Prius 10 years from when it first went on sale in Japan to when it hit 100K units in North America, and Toyota only moved 5K units the during the first year of NA sales. I think the adoption rate for EVs/EREVs will be faster because the technology is more interesting and more beneficial, but expecting sales of 100K units in the first year or two is delusional. If you have have realistic expectations then both cars are doing as well or slightly better than expected. Continued talk of $5 per gallon gas won't hurt going forward.

 

[DaveEV]

I have to wonder if Nissan is withholding cars from the US market on purpose... Exchange rate is still not favorable for Japanese imports - and Smyrna should be coming online soon to satisfy local demand. There are still very few cars on the lots and many people are still ordering their cars online.