LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

[NavyCuda]

If you want to get technical, the first EVs were manufactured around a century ago.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...And those negative people are CRAZY for trying to compare a $20K Leaf to a $90K Tesla to begin with. The tesla is only a disposable-income fun toy for the rich...

Hyperbole much? $20k LEAF? Not the last I checked. Used perhaps. Or perhaps counting a federal tax credit (assuming one qualifies, I don't) and state tax credit (assuming one lives in the tiny minority of states that have one, as I do). $90k Tesla? Starting price is $66k, and that's before those same tax credits.

So, start with those outright lies and then make the assertion: "The tesla is only a disposable-income fun toy for the rich..." Hardly. The difference between a Tesla and a LEAF, besides cost, is that the former can serve as one's only car and still easily make thousand mile road trips. In just over three months I put 8000+ miles on mine, which was the annual total of the LEAF it replaced, which never got more than 100 miles from home in more than four years. I bought my Tesla used because I'm not rich (I spent just over $14k last year on an income of $20k, how about you?) and it isn't any more or less a "toy" than was the LEAF. The Tesla is, however, a lot more practical than the LEAF was, being able to handle both local and very long distance driving.

Hard to take you seriously when you make such utterly ridiculous statements...

 

[GetOffYourGas]

A (perhaps) more reliable source reports on the LEAF gen 2, and adds CG's comments on selling BEVs into the cheap-gas headwind:

Next-gen Leaf: More tech despite low sales

Nissan to cut EV's weight, ease charging, boost battery power and driving range

...Officially, Nissan has barely acknowledged that there will be a second-generation Leaf, let alone revealed specifics about the product, which likely will appear in the 2018-20 time frame.

But engineers in Atsugi freely show the work they are doing on a future EV that fits into the Leaf's footprint.

The team is in the late stages of a perfecting a 60 kilowatt-hour lithium ion vehicle battery that has the same dimensions as the 30 kWh battery just introduced on the 2016 Leaf. The 30 kWh battery is an enhancement from last year's 24 kWh battery.

The 60 kWh battery has graduated from r&d last year to running in prototypes today.

Teams also have targeted aerodynamics in a big way for the next EV. Engineers at Atsugi note that even a small improvement in aerodynamic design goes a long way on a battery-powered vehicle...

The enhancements also have targeted the chemical resistance involved in recharging the battery...

In discussing the Leaf's future, Ghosn also hints at a shift in marketing strategy. He acknowledges that U.S. consumers have focused mainly on the economics of owning a battery-powered car. Their equation is how much of the monthly household budget can be saved by not filling up a gasoline tank -- a math equation that loses its excitement when gasoline drops to $1.95 a gallon, as it is in some areas today.

Ghosn says that the marketing focus instead should be environmental...

"The price of gasoline is going to be either head wind or tail wind for us. It will slow you down or accelerate you," he says. "But it's not going to change the direction of where we're going."

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151116/OEM05/311169970/next-gen-leaf-more-tech-despite-low-sales

Thanks - there are several very interesting points there. I really like the emphasis on lower drag aerodynamics - this makes a LOT of sense, because it means the range will be longer for any given battery pack capacity. This means lower weight, and lower cost for any given range.

Also, the lower chemical resistance could well mean better thermal stability. Remember too, that a larger pack puts far less stress on each cell, and so all else being equal, a larger capacity pack will last longer.

I think the IDS Concept looks great!

Looks like a cross between the BMW i3 and i8. I hope we find out what the Leaf 2.0 actually looks like.

We've seen how the general public reacts to the "green" message. A resounding "meh" at best. At worst, it's assumed to be "medicine".

EVs should be built for their environmental benefits. They should not be sold based on those benefits.

EVs should be sold based on their superior characteristics as compared to ICEVs:

• Convenience (home charging - wireless is a nice bonus)
• Instant/linear torque (EVs are fun to drive, even the Leaf with its 80kW motor)
• Cheap to operate
• Quiet operation
• Etc.

 

[fotajoye]

[/TomT wrote:
I have a PhD in electrical engineering and like to think that I have reasonably good critical reasoning abilities... Thus, my experience with my 2011 Leaf specifically, and with Nissan in general, has led me to the opposite conclusion: Nissan will not again get any of my EV business unless there are some dramatic changes in both.quote]

I agree; with your assessment; Nissan has not shown the interest and innovation in EVs I had hoped for when I bought my 2011. They have had 6 years to improve the range; but, have shown little progress, only PR and press releases to convince the less knowledgeable they don't need the range. This stagnate response to the desire expressed by users for more range and their poor policies based on obsolete ICE technology, i.e., the decision to not offer upgraded batteries for the older model cars, etc., is a clear message they are still operating in the ICE world. The result of these poor policies is reflected in the low resale value of the Leaf which is the lowest in the market. Nissan doesn't understand the new world of EVs. They don't get it yet; BMW does and they offer upgrades to their EVs... Tesla does also as does GM who held off building an EV until the longer range batteries were available in mass.

Having said all this, I enjoy the car except for the range anxiety caused by the limitations of the battery. Dismissing the battery range problem and battery upgrades for 200,000 used Leafs is flawed Nissan management thinking.

 

[Phatcat73]

In alignment with TomT . Nissan was 1st on market, and ended up as one of the biggest production disappointments. I don't believe any other EV manufacturer has passive cooling, as they did their homework.

Navycuda must work for Nissan.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I agree; with your assessment; Nissan has not shown the interest and innovation in EVs I had hoped for when I bought my 2011. They have had 6 years to improve the range; but, have shown little progress, only PR and press releases to convince the less knowledgeable they don't need the range. This stagnate response to the desire expressed by users for more range and their poor policies based on obsolete ICE technology, i.e., the decision to not offer upgraded batteries for the older model cars, etc., is a clear message they are still operating in the ICE world. The result of these poor policies is reflected in the low resale value of the Leaf which is the lowest in the market. Nissan doesn't understand the new world of EVs. They don't get it yet; BMW does and they offer upgrades to their EVs... Tesla does also as does GM who held off building an EV until the longer range batteries were available in mass.

IMHO, the statement in bold is the crux of the problem and the source of our collective frustration. In the ICE world, technology doesn't move very quickly. A typical car design has a life cycle of 5-6 year, with only a modest face-lift in the middle. I believe that Nissan is learning a ton with the Leaf, but they are stuck in the mindset of a 5-6 year cycle. The first Leaf, btw, was a 2011 Model Year. We are on 2016 (6 years later), and looking to see the next Leaf next year. I think we all expect it to be a huge leap forward from the current Leaf. Which only supports my thesis.

 

[NavyCuda]

In alignment with TomT . Nissan was 1st on market, and ended up as one of the biggest production disappointments. I don't believe any other EV manufacturer has passive cooling, as they did their homework.

Navycuda must work for Nissan.

Nice assumption.

I'm currently a CNC jet machining operator.

As I've pointed out and some of you choose to ignore, active thermal management is a bandaid, passive is the future.

So if Nissan pisses off a few people like you to develop a superior product, it's well worth them losing your business.

 

[OakLeaf]

As I've pointed out and some of you choose to ignore, active thermal management is a bandaid, passive is the future

Once active thermal management is in place it's too easy to just say, "we have thermal management already so lets only focus on energy density." Thermal management adds complexity to a car that is almost completely solid state.

In the long term, active thermal management is likely to be unnecessary as the many benefits of a passive system are inarguably desirable.

The cost benefits realized with a passive system should prevent complacency and should ensure continued development on the thermal performance front.

Passive is the future - the problem is we have to build with what we have in our hands today.

 

[Phatcat73]

Except most people after 3 years will be pissed with their Leaf, unless they win the battery lottery which will buy them 1 or 2 years. Passive will work with a solid state batteries but that's around 10 years away. I'll tend to side with the vast majority of EV R&D engineers and their homework in implementing a safety net for current LI-Ion chemistries.

 

[Nubo]

The point is that Nissan is taking the more difficult road and if they solve the chemistry issues they'll have a significant leg up over the competition.

Once active thermal management is in place it's too easy to just say, "we have thermal management already so lets only focus on energy density." Thermal management adds complexity to a car that is almost completely solid state.

I can understand why some manufacturers would choose to take the easy route, but Nissan is taking the right path. The greater the risk the greater the reward.

I can't agree with that. By doing it wrong (no thermal management with current chemistry) for years, while hoping to eventually get it right, they are not so much "getting a leg up over the competition" as "losing both current and future EV buyers."

If you take LEAF owners as a whole and not just members of this forum, Nissan's strategy may not be as flawed as it seems here. Active cooling is not without its drawbacks, in complexity, efficiency, and vampire draws. Other makes have had customer problems that stem from those drawbacks. Also, how many LEAFs have burst into flames? There is no perfect, one-size-fits-all. There are lots of LEAF owners who don't know what a GID is and are happy with their cars.

My personal opinion is that there was either a flaw in the pre-production battery test methodology, or that negative results somehow did not complete the communications loop due to "Go Fever". Thus early results were not what they should have been, but that doesn't necessarily make a complete case against passive cooling as a strategy. Personally I've been very happy with our LEAFs, now midway through our 2nd leased vehicle. I would still not buy at this point, regardless of the cooling approach. The technology is evolving too rapidly. In another couple of years the market may be quite different.

 

[LeftieBiker]

My personal opinion is that there was either a flaw in the pre-production battery test methodology, or that negative results somehow did not complete the communications loop due to "Go Fever". Thus early results were not what they should have been, but that doesn't necessarily make a complete case against passive cooling as a strategy. Personally I've been very happy with our LEAFs, now midway through our 2nd leased vehicle. I would still not buy at this point, regardless of the cooling approach. The technology is evolving too rapidly. In another couple of years the market may be quite different.

I seem to recall something about proposed active cooling being dropped (or maybe it was that the problematic chemistry was green-lighted) because of a tight production schedule - they essentially said "Damn the torpedoes - full speed ahead!" Which is easier, of course, if said torpedoes are going to strike your customers, rather than you.

 

[Reddy]

I agree; with your assessment; Nissan has not shown the interest and innovation in EVs I had hoped for when I bought my 2011. They have had 6 years to improve the range; but, have shown little progress, only PR and press releases to convince the less knowledgeable they don't need the range. This stagnate response to the desire expressed by users for more range and their poor policies based on obsolete ICE technology, i.e., the decision to not offer upgraded batteries for the older model cars, etc., is a clear message they are still operating in the ICE world. The result of these poor policies is reflected in the low resale value of the Leaf which is the lowest in the market. Nissan doesn't understand the new world of EVs. They don't get it yet; BMW does and they offer upgrades to their EVs... Tesla does also as does GM who held off building an EV until the longer range batteries were available in mass.

Having said all this, I enjoy the car except for the range anxiety caused by the limitations of the battery. Dismissing the battery range problem and battery upgrades for 200,000 used Leafs is flawed Nissan management thinking.

+1 Well said! Unfortunately, Nissan and the Leaf's 1st run is pretty much done, relegated to another one of 10-20 PHEV available. Previously, it shared the mid-market 50:50 with the Volt, but that's so 2010. Nissan needs to introduce at least 3 or 4 good-looking, 200+mi EV's in August of THIS YEAR, or they will continue to be "just another lower cost choice." Here's what I think should happen: Leaf2 refresh needs to be $35K with 200 mi range, followed by the 150 mi Rogue/Juke SUV for families, the 250 mi IDS concept for techies, and the 150 mi transit/mini-van for business. The Leaf2 needs to be similar in size, but with less wind resistance and without the bulging headlights/rear, a better hatchback, more trunk space, flat folding seats, bigger screen, automatically updated maps, >7 KW charger, combo CCS/Chademo DQCQ standard, better colors, etc. Hey, if that happens, and I don't expect it until at least 2018 (probably never on some specs), I'll personally go to the dealer for a test drive. Otherwise, I (as well as 370,000 others), will just wait for the Model 3. Yup, that's a lot of people taken out of the EV market. EDIT: Oh, thermal control or not, the battery should decay less than 1%/yr at 10,000 mi/yr. A battery WARMING function (not just freeze protection) in the winter should be an option during pre-heating.

 

[evnow]

I like the active cooling vs passive cooling, retrospective/obituary of Nissan EVs etc - but this is the wrong thread for those discussions.

 

[NavyCuda]

I kind of hope Nissan keeps the gen 1 Leaf going a little longer and offers the 60kWh battery in it.

It's an ugly little car, no question but it's already amortized so Nissan should be able to drop their pants on the price if they do.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

...And those negative people are CRAZY for trying to compare a $20K Leaf to a $90K Tesla to begin with. The tesla is only a disposable-income fun toy for the rich...

Hyperbole much? $20k LEAF? Not the last I checked. Used perhaps. Or perhaps counting a federal tax credit (assuming one qualifies, I don't) and state tax credit (assuming one lives in the tiny minority of states that have one, as I do). $90k Tesla? Starting price is $66k, and that's before those same tax credits.

So, start with those outright lies and then make the assertion: "The tesla is only a disposable-income fun toy for the rich..." Hardly. The difference between a Tesla and a LEAF, besides cost, is that the former can serve as one's only car and still easily make thousand mile road trips. In just over three months I put 8000+ miles on mine, which was the annual total of the LEAF it replaced, which never got more than 100 miles from home in more than four years. I bought my Tesla used because I'm not rich (I spent just over $14k last year on an income of $20k, how about you?) and it isn't any more or less a "toy" than was the LEAF. The Tesla is, however, a lot more practical than the LEAF was, being able to handle both local and very long distance driving.

Hard to take you seriously when you make such utterly ridiculous statements...

In the grand scheme of things; EVs are a great deal no matter what range they have if they are able to suit a great majority of your needs. The options to refuel cheaply or for free exist when gas has no such benefits. The upkeep is near minimal.

So yes, a Tesla can be a great deal especially in the long term. For some, the TCO of the Tesla can be brought down to the average mid-sized car/SUV in 5 to 15 years depending on how far you drive and what public charging infrastructure you have available.

It is much easier for me to get away with using a LEAF because I have a lot of public charging (although there is a lot of room for improvement) and Steve's 2011 with over 150,000 miles is proof. Now that car no longer works for him and hasn't for a long time but he is far from a typical commuter. He bought two LEAFs so his financial investment was extreme. Should he have gotten a Tesla instead?

FYI;

*he got a really good deal on his 2nd LEAF
*He needed a 2nd car and the gasser he was replacing was facing imminent expensive repairs

So hard to say though guessing his buying a Tesla would not have been an option simply based on finances. No matter how well a car works for you, if you cannot afford it, it might as well be vaporware.

In my current position, A Tesla would be awesome. I could eliminate the 2nd car and never worry about on the road charging except for a handful of destinations I need to go to.

but spending my fallback money and going into debt (I have none other than the lease on the LEAF) for tens of thousands?

nowhere near worth it...

 

[dgpcolorado]

...In the grand scheme of things; EVs are a great deal no matter what range they have if they are able to suit a great majority of your needs. The options to refuel cheaply or for free exist when gas has no such benefits. The upkeep is near minimal.

So yes, a Tesla can be a great deal especially in the long term. For some, the TCO of the Tesla can be brought down to the average mid-sized car/SUV in 5 to 15 years depending on how far you drive and what public charging infrastructure you have available.

It is much easier for me to get away with using a LEAF because I have a lot of public charging (although there is a lot of room for improvement) and Steve's 2011 with over 150,000 miles is proof. Now that car no longer works for him and hasn't for a long time but he is far from a typical commuter. He bought two LEAFs so his financial investment was extreme. Should he have gotten a Tesla instead?

FYI;

*he got a really good deal on his 2nd LEAF
*He needed a 2nd car and the gasser he was replacing was facing imminent expensive repairs

So hard to say though guessing his buying a Tesla would not have been an option simply based on finances. No matter how well a car works for you, if you cannot afford it, it might as well be vaporware.

In my current position, A Tesla would be awesome. I could eliminate the 2nd car and never worry about on the road charging except for a handful of destinations I need to go to.

but spending my fallback money and going into debt (I have none other than the lease on the LEAF) for tens of thousands?

nowhere near worth it...

That sort of even-handed analysis of EV options is the polar opposite of what powersurge was saying. I'd normally stay out of it but his statements were way beyond the pale.

As for charge infrastructure, you do have a rather unusual situation in the PNW with a lot of DCFC stations, some of them even located along highway corridors. But even those tend to be one or two per location and not necessarily reliable. And here in my area of "flyover country," the nearest Chademo or CCS DCFC station is 300 miles away. What good is that? So, I don't have a lot of patience for the "Chademo is good enough" argument. Perhaps in some limited areas it will serve for enhanced local and regional travel. But, long distance? Not anytime in the foreseeable future.

So, from my perspective LEAF 2 remains a local/regional car. That's plenty good enough for many people who have a second car for long distance travel (or are willing to rent or use other options for road trips). But the LEAF 2 (and Bolt) utility remains limited despite a 200 mile range and a DCFC port. If the Tesla Model 3 launches successfully, something that isn't yet certain to be sure, I think it will change things in a big way.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

...In the grand scheme of things; EVs are a great deal no matter what range they have if they are able to suit a great majority of your needs. The options to refuel cheaply or for free exist when gas has no such benefits. The upkeep is near minimal.

So yes, a Tesla can be a great deal especially in the long term. For some, the TCO of the Tesla can be brought down to the average mid-sized car/SUV in 5 to 15 years depending on how far you drive and what public charging infrastructure you have available.

It is much easier for me to get away with using a LEAF because I have a lot of public charging (although there is a lot of room for improvement) and Steve's 2011 with over 150,000 miles is proof. Now that car no longer works for him and hasn't for a long time but he is far from a typical commuter. He bought two LEAFs so his financial investment was extreme. Should he have gotten a Tesla instead?

FYI;

*he got a really good deal on his 2nd LEAF
*He needed a 2nd car and the gasser he was replacing was facing imminent expensive repairs

So hard to say though guessing his buying a Tesla would not have been an option simply based on finances. No matter how well a car works for you, if you cannot afford it, it might as well be vaporware.

In my current position, A Tesla would be awesome. I could eliminate the 2nd car and never worry about on the road charging except for a handful of destinations I need to go to.

but spending my fallback money and going into debt (I have none other than the lease on the LEAF) for tens of thousands?

nowhere near worth it...

That sort of even-handed analysis of EV options is the polar opposite of what powersurge was saying. I'd normally stay out of it but his statements were way beyond the pale.

As for charge infrastructure, you do have a rather unusual situation in the PNW with a lot of DCFC stations, some of them even located along highway corridors. But even those tend to be one or two per location and not necessarily reliable. And here in my area of "flyover country," the nearest Chademo or CCS DCFC station is 300 miles away. What good is that? So, I don't have a lot of patience for the "Chademo is good enough" argument. Perhaps in some limited areas it will serve for enhanced local and regional travel. But, long distance? Not anytime in the foreseeable future.

So, from my perspective LEAF 2 remains a local/regional car. That's plenty good enough for many people who have a second car for long distance travel (or are willing to rent or use other options for road trips). But the LEAF 2 (and Bolt) utility remains limited despite a 200 mile range and a DCFC port. If the Tesla Model 3 launches successfully, something that isn't yet certain to be sure, I think it will change things in a big way.

a glance at the plugshare map might make you smile but roughly 20% of the chademo's are down (mostly Nissan dealerships) but we are actually now starting to see 2 chargers at one location. Broken down is not nearly as bad (because you accommodate for that) as an overrun station which can never be predicted. having 2 plugs in one location makes a HUGE difference

 

[NavyCuda]

My leaf is my daily driver but I bought it for a specific purpose, a work commuter. If I need to go further than the range of my Leaf I take one of my other four gasoline powered vehicles.

I think a big flaw is the expectation of current and next gen EVs being able to replace liquid fuels. Even the Tesla comes with compromises when it comes to distance travelling. Yes they have the supercharger network but that doesn't change the fact that some older TDIs can get 1100km from a single tank of fuel and only take 5 minutes to fill up.

I was realistic about the limitations of my Leaf when I bought it. That made me happier with my purchase because I'm not concerned with range or being economical during my commute.

I will likely buy the next gen Leaf because it will extend my ability to use the car locally but at no time would I have the expectation that it would replace my Q45 for traveling outside of my normal oprating envelope.

 

[dgpcolorado]

a glance at the plugshare map might make you smile but roughly 20% of the chademo's are down (mostly Nissan dealerships) but we are actually now starting to see 2 chargers at one location. Broken down is not nearly as bad (because you accommodate for that) as an overrun station which can never be predicted. having 2 plugs in one location makes a HUGE difference

That was one of the interesting design elements of Tesla's Supercharger network: plenty of Superchargers at each site. Many early ones in remote locations were four per site but six to fourteen is more typical now. Recently I had my first experience with a broken Supercharger Station when a linked pair in Green River were down. That left only one pair for three cars. I left a bit earlier than I normally would have to give my spot to the third car (and had to drive more slowly to make the next Supercharger stop). But that's the first time I've encountered a broken Supercharger, or a queue, in forty visits to eighteen different stations.

Barring a time when Chademo or CCS chargers become as numerous as gas stations and pumps, it is hard to see them providing competition to the deliberately designed Supercharger network. As you well know, one difference between EVs and ICEVs is that the vast majority of fueling is done at home. That makes it much more difficult to make a DCFC network economically viable. That will be even more so when a typical EV, such as LEAF 2, has a 200 mile range. The only need for charging away from home/work would be for the occasional long road trip. Even in my case, with 70 mile grocery shopping trips (how many here at MNL do that?), I only charge my car to 60% most days. It is plenty for local driving needs, no charging away from home required. That is quite different from the current gas station business model we have used for most of the last century.

 

[TimLee]

...
It's an ugly little car, no question ...

I've liked its unusual looks since I saw early production one in early spring 2010 at the Versa test mule roadtrip.

Was one of only two or three that had been manufactured at that time. They didn't want you to even touch it which I found out when I was chastized for doing so.

Still like its looks.

To each his own.

But I concur gen 2 will be more mainstream and normal looking.