Leaf depreciation. Ouch!

[evboy]

I was looking at a article when the 2012 leaf SL came out. The msrp was 37,250. After the 7500 rebate and negotiation, it sold for around 29,500. The one at carmax im looking at cost 13,500. That is a 16k loss. Thats over 50% loss in three years. It looks like a used one is one hell of a deal. Where do you see the value in 2 years.

 

[TimLee]

...The one at carmax im looking at cost 13,500. That is a 16k loss. Thats over 50% loss in three years. It looks like a used one is one hell of a deal. Where do you see the value in 2 years.

If you hunt down the thread on auction prices you will see that 2011 is dropping below $10,000.
And 2012 will shortly.
So the price is high relative to market.

In two years?
$8,000. Could be under $6,000 if Gen 2 has substantially increased range.

 

[Nubo]

Future value depends a lot on how EV tech pans out, and Nissan's in particular. If a Gen2 LEAF with twice the range becomes available, and IF the Gen2 pack is backwards compatible and IF for a reasonable price... Then an older used LEAF might be attractive.

 

[TimLee]

But backwards compatible is pretty unlikely.

 

[evboy]

Future value depends a lot on how EV tech pans out, and Nissan's in particular. If a Gen2 LEAF with twice the range becomes available, and IF the Gen2 pack is backwards compatible and IF for a reasonable price... Then an older used LEAF might be attractive.

if i were to buy the 2012 and the capacity falls below 70% before the 5 years is up, do you think they would put in the 2016 battery of 140 miles or whatever the rumor is. If they did that it would be a steal buying used.

 

[keydiver]

A free upgrade? :shock: Nope, that's not gonna happen. At best you will get what everyone else has gotten so far, a fresh 2015 Lizard battery which has improved chemistry.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

not sure we can use the old scale of depreciation to compare. Gas cars have so much more financial investment required that EVs do not have so saying XX% is a lot, we have to say a lot compared to what? Because at this point, there is little to compare it to. there is virtually no EV used car market out there if the LEAF is removed.

Now there is a battery cost replacement to deal with and a group that will be "out in the cold" because they will have degradation but not bad enough to qualify for the free replacement. Then there are people who can go over 100,000 miles before range becomes an extreme issue (like Steve Marsh) so the additional battery cost does not exceed what he would have paid in gasoline not to mention the fact that he never had to take time to get gas. He is an extreme example so not a good model but the fact remains that range can be usable here for years.

But each year there is measurable progress in battery tech so is it feasible to buy used, save a ton on initial investment, squirrel away your estimated fuel savings from gas to buy a battery later? hard to say since we don't know what kind of backwards compatibility will be out there but if I had to speculate, I would go 2013 and newer simply because that was a configuration change with enough on the road to generate support for several years I am guessing

 

[2k1Toaster]

I was looking at a article when the 2012 leaf SL came out. The msrp was 37,250. After the 7500 rebate and negotiation, it sold for around 29,500. The one at carmax im looking at cost 13,500. That is a 16k loss. Thats over 50% loss in three years. It looks like a used one is one hell of a deal. Where do you see the value in 2 years.

You can buy the brand new base here in CO for under $15.5K. Seems like reasonable depreciation to me.

A new Mercedes SLS will set you back $221,580 before taxes and all that stuff. A gently used 2012 model with 3,600miles can be bought for $139,000. That's $82,580 in depreciation over 3 years, 37%.

Or a Rolls Phantom for $433,500. You can buy used 2012 models for just about $200K. That's 53% depreciation as well, except that adds up to $233K.

Buying a brand new Leaf for $16K, and selling it 3 years from now for $10K, seems like a steal. Buying one for $35K and selling it for $10K, seems like a ripoff. But you also have to factor in non-financial things like the fun factor.

 

[Moof]

The S model with a lot of incentives indeed is probably to blame for a lot of price pressure on the 2011 and 2012's. With some negotiation and incentives from NMAC and federal you can easily get the S below 20k new even without state incentives.

So a 3-4 year old 2011 or 2012 SL for 14k or 16k respectively vs. a brand new S for under 20k is about right. Sure you lose out on a crappy nav system and a soon to be out of commission 2G Carwings capability, but you get the same charge rate, heated seats, a fresh warranty, a SOC display, and a brand new battery.

 

[pchilds]

My 2011 LEAF is worth less than my 2007 Prius. :shock:

 

[Valdemar]

My 2011 LEAF is worth less than my 2007 Prius. :shock:

Is that considering savings on gas and maintenance?

I've been randomly checking kbb for my Leaf's value, it remained relatively flat since last summer around 11k for private party price. But new less expensive tech can certainly send it down a lot.

EDIT: just checked and kbb says my Leaf lost $400 since yesterday, ouch but I've seen price come down and then up again.

 

[Arddrea]

I think the biggest reason the depreciation is so high is the number coming off lease. It is a over supply and lack of demand is driving down the price. Not a lot of people feel they can get away with the range issues and the lack of changing availability.

Note about the CARMAX cars. They refuse to give you the CarFax for a reason. The three I checked in the great lakes region, one had no warranty (it was also the highest price) even though at the time I did not realize it (no 1 or 2 year battery check no maintenance what so ever, it was also owned by dollar thrifty) the other two were lemon buy backs.

Beware of:
Sold at auction, listed as manufacture vehicle.

 

[nosuchthing]

IF the Gen2 pack is backwards compatible and IF for a reasonable price... Then an older used LEAF might be attractive.

The big IF is exactly why I dumped my '11. Nissan has not been too kind to us, early adopters.

The other problem, perhaps even bigger one, is the slow 3.3 charger. So, even if you get to fit in the 120-mile battery, it will take 12 hours to charge it up. No good, I say.

Nissan made it clear from early on, no upgrade to 6.6 on '11s and '12s. It's a dud, folks.

 

[derkraut]

My 2011 LEAF is worth less than my 2007 Prius. :shock:

Is that considering savings on gas and maintenance?

I've been randomly checking kbb for my Leaf's value, it remained relatively flat since last summer around 11k for private party price. But new less expensive tech can certainly send it down a lot.

EDIT: just checked and kbb says my Leaf lost $400 since yesterday, ouch but I've seen price come down and then up again.

Well...I look at it this way: First of all, I love my car (2011 SL). I'm @ 10 Bars, but that's OK, because it still meets 90+% of my needs. Also, my wife loves it (this is VERY important, as you know). Yesterday I charged at home to 100%, and drove 65 miles, half freeway and half streets, up & down some hills almost constantly, which took me to LBW and 34 Gids. Of course, I'm in San Diego, so no need for heater or A/C.
Bottom line---I intend to drive this car another 3-5 years. This car has never been in a shop except for annual battery checks. I do my own tire rotation, cabin filter change, etc. I suppose I'll have to buy a new 12V battery @ Costco one of these years, and a new set of tires. So, what's not to like? I really don't care if the resale value goes down to $00,000.00. It's the perfect car for my wife and me. When we need to travel beyond present range. we take the Prius. So, in the last 3 1/2 years, we've put 2500 miles on the Prius. For our needs, it's perfect.

 

[nosuchthing]

That's what is boils down to... In our case, we measure usability if we can make SF and back without anxiety. It's 60 miles. Our 10-bar Leaf was down to that or less (58?). So that killed the deal.

Oh, yeah. You said it: My wife hated it. Constantly charging. Not enough range, and so on.

Now I can make work and back - 83 miles with 12 miles to spare. So, I'm glad I moved on since there was a car that could do it, the Soul.

 

[Valdemar]

We are all very happy for you. Please check back in at 56150 miles on your Soul and let us know how it is holding up.

 

[DaveEV]

Well...I look at it this way: First of all, I love my car (2011 SL). I'm @ 10 Bars, but that's OK, because it still meets 90+% of my needs. Also, my wife loves it (this is VERY important, as you know). Yesterday I charged at home to 100%, and drove 65 miles, half freeway and half streets, up & down some hills almost constantly, which took me to LBW and 34 Gids.

Hmm, you're doing a bit better than me. What was your mi/kWh? Only got 56 mi in mine today (mostly freeway at 63-65 mph) at 4.2 mi/kWh stopping at 15.9% and 31 GIDs. Then charged for another hour and drove another 8 miles getting back home at 27.8% and 51 GIDs. This is pretty typical for me.

Everyone else has got the depreciation topic covered - good job!

 

[redLEAF]

I was looking at a article when the 2012 leaf SL came out. The msrp was 37,250. After the 7500 rebate and negotiation, it sold for around 29,500. The one at carmax im looking at cost 13,500. That is a 16k loss. Thats over 50% loss in three years. It looks like a used one is one hell of a deal. Where do you see the value in 2 years.

Other factors besides the '7500 rebate' (its of course actually a Fed Tax Credit) that reduces the cost would be that some states also offered other incentives (IL offers 10% of MSRP up to $4K so my 'cash rebate' was $3,725 in the form of a check from the state) so that brings it down some more -- my 'out the door' with my '06 Mazda3 trade-in was about $17K for the car back 3 years ago; with all the savings on gas (at least for the first 2 1/2 years --- who knew it would drop to less than $2/gal?) and the fact that we now know how much a new battery would cost, I'm not all that concerned about depreciation just yet --- I don't like the fact that insurer's are increasing premiums due to repair costs but we'll see how things go --- perhaps Nissan will offer the same 'battery upgrade' option that Tesla is now doing on their Roadsters to 'reward' the early adopters; wouldn't that be nice? as long as the body and non-battery related components hold up the car could last much longer than the typical ICE

 

[greengate]

My 2011 LEAF is worth less than my 2007 Prius. :shock:

Here's why.


Sad, but true reflection on the American populace.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

If it weren't for the damn insurance costs I wouldn't mind picking up a used Leaf in the $6-8k price range even if it only had 30-40 miles of range left.