Nissan-expects-leaf-sales-to-double - Smyrna update

[LeafinThePark]

Not a whole lot here...certainly nothing that we did not know already..although it nice to know that Smyrna is apparently on schedule.

http://www.autoblog.com/2012/06/19/nissan-expects-leaf-sales-to-double-when-tn-plant-comes-online/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Comments from the knuckledraggers amusing as usual.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

June 17, 2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-17/nissan-sees-leaf-sales-doubling-as-factory-begins-production.html

 

[TomT]

I do have to wonder how simply manufacturing it here is going to account for such an increased take rate in the U.S... There is no great indication currently that the Leaf is that supply constrained... It appears to be more of a lack of interest by buyers now that most of the early adopters have been satisfied...

Not a whole lot here...certainly nothing that we did not know already..although it nice to know that Smyrna is apparently on schedule.

 

[garsh]

I do have to wonder how simply manufacturing it here is going to account for such an increased take rate in the U.S.

Possibly by bringing down costs, and therefore, allowing them to lower prices.

 

[defiancecp]

And maybe actually bothering with marketing, incentives, etc. There's been no push to sell them because of the exchange rate issues, once these are a nonissue I expect that to change quite a bit.

 

[TomT]

Perhaps, but there has been no indication anywhere that such will be the case... The Leaf already sells for less in the U.S. than in most other countries (government rebates aside)...

I do have to wonder how simply manufacturing it here is going to account for such an increased take rate in the U.S.

Possibly by bringing down costs, and therefore, allowing them to lower prices.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

The facility will be able to build up to 200,000 Leaf models and 150,000 battery packs per year.

I think they got that backwards.

 

[smkettner]

Good, then can we get a price on a replacement pack? Might have some demand for that surplus the way capacity is dropping.

 

[NYLEAF]

The facility will be able to build up to 200,000 Leaf models and 150,000 battery packs per year.

I think they got that backwards.

I sure hope so...those last 50k Leafs will be awfully boring without batteries!

 

[Douglas57]

When do most expect the door to order the leaf from Tenn to open? I, for one will order one as soon as it becomes available. I live in Indiana and am waiting for the improved heater for our winters here. The rumored improvements are also worth waiting for.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Good, then can we get a price on a replacement pack? Might have some demand for that surplus the way capacity is dropping.

Funny you should mention that. Knowing what the replacement cost is on the battery is a requirement before I'll consider buying out the lease. At one point someone said the extra packs are for export to other factories building Leafs.

 

[bradbissell]

My question is if they will wait to release the 2013 until Smyrna is online, or if the first 2013 models will come from Japan.

 

[adric22]

I do have to wonder how simply manufacturing it here is going to account for such an increased take rate in the U.S... There is no great indication currently that the Leaf is that supply constrained... It appears to be more of a lack of interest by buyers now that most of the early adopters have been satisfied...

I guess you haven't seen any of those threads where people are complaining that there are no Leafs on dealer lots in their city, dealers being uninterested in selling the car, not returning phone calls, etc.

 

[garsh]

There is no great indication currently that the Leaf is that supply constrained.

I guess you haven't seen any of those threads where people are complaining that there are no Leafs on dealer lots in their city, dealers being uninterested in selling the car, not returning phone calls, etc.

Repeat after me: The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

There is no great indication currently that the Leaf is that supply constrained.

I guess you haven't seen any of those threads where people are complaining that there are no Leafs on dealer lots in their city, dealers being uninterested in selling the car, not returning phone calls, etc.

Repeat after me: The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'.

Car dealers can sell ice cubes to Eskimos. Look at the Cube. If it's on the lot, they'll move it.

 

[KeiJidosha]

My question is if they will wait to release the 2013 until Smyrna is online, or if the first 2013 models will come from Japan.

I have to believe the LEAF will get a makeover in Smyrna. With a new supply chain, its a great time to fix Styling, interior materials, GOM, %SOC, HVAC, Carwings, Nav, Horn, and Charger. A bump in Smyrna battery density to ~30kWh wouldn’t hurt either. Disappointed these issues lingered into 2012 model, I will be shocked if they persist in Smyrna production. Otherwise sub $25k pricing awaits.

 

[defiancecp]

There is no great indication currently that the Leaf is that supply constrained.

I guess you haven't seen any of those threads where people are complaining that there are no Leafs on dealer lots in their city, dealers being uninterested in selling the car, not returning phone calls, etc.

Repeat after me: The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'.

With enough of them, yes it is - it's called 'sampling'.

 

[davewill]

I have to believe the LEAF will get a makeover in Smyrna. With a new supply chain, its a great time to fix Styling, interior materials, GOM, %SOC, HVAC, Carwings, Nav, Horn, and Charger. A bump in Smyrna battery density to ~30kWh wouldn’t hurt either. Disappointed these issues lingered into 2012 model, I will be shocked if they persist in Smyrna production. Otherwise sub $25k pricing awaits.

I predict you will be shocked, then. I expect only the changes that have been announced.

 

[TomT]

Yeah, I've seen them but chalk many of them up to the usual stupid dealer tricks... The other side of the coin is that there are many dealers out here with many of them sitting on their lots looking for buyers...

I do have to wonder how simply manufacturing it here is going to account for such an increased take rate in the U.S... There is no great indication currently that the Leaf is that supply constrained... It appears to be more of a lack of interest by buyers now that most of the early adopters have been satisfied...

I guess you haven't seen any of those threads where people are complaining that there are no Leafs on dealer lots in their city, dealers being uninterested in selling the car, not returning phone calls, etc.

 

[Deleted member 1622]

Math problem:
Bloomberg reports that Nissan is ambitiously expecting to double Leaf sales once the plant comes online in December. The sales boost would then give Nissan a chance at hitting 20,000 sales for the fiscal year that ends on March 31, 2013.

April 2012-June 2012: 1,500 Leafs sold
Assume even better for 2nd quarter:
July 2012-September 2012: 2,000 Leafs sold
Assume the same for 3rd quarter:
October 2012-Dec. 2013: 2,000 Leafs sold
Now assume, as the article does, doubling that for 4th quarter:
Jan. 2013-March 2013: 4,000 Leafs sold

How does 1,500 + 2,000 + 2,000 + 4,000 = 20,000?
I wish Nissan would begin to take this slump in sales more seriously rather than sending out fantasy-world statements like this. Smyrna will not solve this problem alone.

I worry that this is not a supply problem, but a marketing problem, see another thread on this:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=9354#p210576

JG