Nissan : Leaf’s Battery Pack Should Last As Long As The Car

[EVDRIVER]

This is a very long tread, but I think we should look at Nissan's numbers as very conservative estimates; Some Toyota RAV4 electric have been routinely checked as a longevity study and on average, their battery capacity measured in Ah-out was still above 72% after 100,000 miles.

And those batteries on the roads still today, are Ni-MH...

I'm confident that by the time my LEAF needs a new batt because is too low for my comfort, I'd have saved enough on "fuel" to gladly and happily pay for it. The key there is to SAVE your money and budget for an expense that will come in 7 or 10 years.

Not apples to apples on chemistry so it's not a good comparison. My prediction is that there will be quite a bit of whining and complaining from many folks once their capacity drops and in many cases more than they expect. My point is that there are quite a few that are in denial of capacity changes and once it happens it's going to be a different story. It's all going to change as soon as those bars and the range drop off.

 

[amtoro]

On Page 2-10 of the user manual it talks about the Battery capacity level gauge. Here's what it says.

The capacity gauge (Owner's manual, Page 0-8, item 14) is the outer, thin set of "bars." If that's what you've been talking about all along then you are correct - once those bars vanish, they're gone until the battery is refurbished. My apologies if we've been talking about different things here!

I'm talking about the available charge gauge (Owner's manual, Page 0-8, item 13), which is the inner, wider set of bars that the range guestimator cuts into. These are the bars that vanish as you drive and reappear as you charge. A full charge will always show 12 inner bars even if the battery is degraded.
=Smidge=

You are correct, but also, reading twice, you will notice that the manual mentions how the number of available bars will diminish in cold weather when the battery cannot use all of it's storage capacity; then, the longer bars can still go to 100% indicating full charge of the available capacity.

i.e. in frigid cold mornings, we might see only 9, 10 or 11 bars on the capacity indicator, but all 12 bars in the charge gauge will be present to indicate that you are fully charged up to the available capacity at that moment. As the day warms up, the capacity could increase showing more bars in the indicator and at the same time the gauge will go down to indicate that, even if you have the same energy stored, as the capacity has increased, your percentage in relation to the capacity is less than it was before.

When the bars in the capacity indicator disappear from, say, one year to the next in the same seasons, yes, they are gone for good, but from winter to summer, the capacity can increase and vice versa.

 

[amtoro]

Not apples to apples on chemistry so it's not a good comparison. My prediction is that there will be quite a bit of whining and complaining from many folks once their capacity drops and in many cases more than they expect. My point is that there are quite a few that are in denial of capacity changes and once it happens it's going to be a different story. It's all going to change as soon as those bars and the range drop off.

Absolutely, we will hear complains, but what I meant is that I do think Nissan has been careful not to overstate the capabilities of the batteries; when the reduction in range comes, some will trade, some will replace batteries, that also will depend on the EV's available at the time.

 

[abasile]

You are correct, but also, reading twice, you will notice that the manual mentions how the number of available bars will diminish in cold weather when the battery cannot use all of it's storage capacity; then, the longer bars can still go to 100% indicating full charge of the available capacity.

i.e. in frigid cold mornings, we might see only 9, 10 or 11 bars on the capacity indicator, but all 12 bars in the charge gauge will be present to indicate that you are fully charged up to the available capacity at that moment. As the day warms up, the capacity could increase showing more bars in the indicator and at the same time the gauge will go down to indicate that, even if you have the same energy stored, as the capacity has increased, your percentage in relation to the capacity is less than it was before.

I've never seen that behavior. Even when we had a cold spell this past May and our nighttime temperatures dipped into the 20s (and we park outside), our LEAF never lost capacity bars. However, the battery temperature gauge dropped to four bars, and we did have less range per bar of charge. In other words, everything looked normal, but we lost fuel bars more quickly when driving. And we gained them back more quickly when charging.

 

[amtoro]

Maybe the 20's is not cold enough, or I'm reading in between the lines incorrectly. We will have to wait until there are enough LEAF's in northern states

 

[davewill]

Maybe the 20's is not cold enough, or I'm reading in between the lines incorrectly. We will have to wait until there are enough LEAF's in northern states

Or the cold just isn't enough to drop the capacity a whole bar when the battery is this new. It may be that an older battery would display this behavior.

 

[JPWhite]

This is a very long tread, but I think we should look at Nissan's numbers as very conservative estimates; Some Toyota RAV4 electric have been routinely checked as a longevity study and on average, their battery capacity measured in Ah-out was still above 72% after 100,000 miles.

And those batteries on the roads still today, are Ni-MH...

I'm confident that by the time my LEAF needs a new batt because is too low for my comfort, I'd have saved enough on "fuel" to gladly and happily pay for it. The key there is to SAVE your money and budget for an expense that will come in 7 or 10 years.

If indeed we got 7-10 years out of the batteries before needing replacement, one may WANT to replace them with new batteries that may well offer double or triple the capacity. 300 mile LEAF in 10 years sounds like a good investment.

If they end up just offering like for like, scrapping the vehicle may be the cost effective route. Not very green I know, but I'm no tree hugger. I won't pay a huge premium just to 'save the world'.

 

[surfingslovak]

Or the cold just isn't enough to drop the capacity a whole bar when the battery is this new. It may be that an older battery would display this behavior.

Hm, 25 F or so should be enough to significantly affect capacity. I'd think 10%, or possibly 20% lower than usual.

 

[planet4ever]

Or the cold just isn't enough to drop the capacity a whole bar when the battery is this new. It may be that an older battery would display this behavior.

Hm, 25 F or so should be enough to significantly affect capacity. I'd think 10%, or possibly 20% lower than usual.

According to the service manual, the top capacity bar disappears only when you drop to 85% of original capacity. For some reason the top bar is 15% while the other bars are only 6.25%. Perhaps a decision forced on the engineers by marketing types?

Note: abasile's experience with available capacity bars disappearing more rapidly in the cold confirms what amtoro and smidge and I are saying, and with the only logical reading of the manual as amtoro pointed out. If you charge completely you will see 12 bars, regardless of capacity. I guarantee it.

Ray

 

[planet4ever]

If indeed we got 7-10 years out of the batteries before needing replacement, one may WANT to replace them with new batteries that may well offer double or triple the capacity. 300 mile LEAF in 10 years sounds like a good investment.

If they end up just offering like for like, scrapping the vehicle may be the cost effective route.

It is possible, though I think not too likely, that someone may make higher capacity batteries that can be retrofit into 2011 and 2012 LEAFs. The reason I think it unlikely is that I expect Nissan to make incompatible changes in the battery system for 2013, and there just won't be enough 2011 and 2012 vehicles on the road to justify a business case for manufacturing a retrofit.

But please don't even think about scrapping the vehicle. You have overlooked a much more cost effective solution. You probably won't need to replace the entire battery. Some modules will go bad faster than others, and Nissan plans to replace individual modules as needed. That will make a battery "rebuild" far less expensive than a whole new battery.

Ray

 

[JPWhite]

If indeed we got 7-10 years out of the batteries before needing replacement, one may WANT to replace them with new batteries that may well offer double or triple the capacity. 300 mile LEAF in 10 years sounds like a good investment.

If they end up just offering like for like, scrapping the vehicle may be the cost effective route.

It is possible, though I think not too likely, that someone may make higher capacity batteries that can be retrofit into 2011 and 2012 LEAFs. The reason I think it unlikely is that I expect Nissan to make incompatible changes in the battery system for 2013, and there just won't be enough 2011 and 2012 vehicles on the road to justify a business case for manufacturing a retrofit.

But please don't even think about scrapping the vehicle. You have overlooked a much more cost effective solution. You probably won't need to replace the entire battery. Some modules will go bad faster than others, and Nissan plans to replace individual modules as needed. That will make a battery "rebuild" far less expensive than a whole new battery.

Ray

What's coming in 2013?

Yeah I know the individual modules can be swapped out, but once all modules are a certain age, they will start to fail more regularly than we'd like. We'll have to hope costs of the modules comes down over time. One area of concern is if they do make incompatible changes, the cost of the 2011/12 modules will start to go up at some point in time as does older obsolete computer memory. Once the manufacturing runs are reduced or suspended, costs will go in the wrong direction. An enterprising individual could take a gamble on this occurring and buy the modules while still in production and resell at higher value later.

 

[mdh]

If indeed we got 7-10 years out of the batteries before needing replacement, one may WANT to replace them with new batteries that may well offer double or triple the capacity. 300 mile LEAF in 10 years sounds like a good investment.

If they end up just offering like for like, scrapping the vehicle may be the cost effective route.

It is possible, though I think not too likely, that someone may make higher capacity batteries that can be retrofit into 2011 and 2012 LEAFs. The reason I think it unlikely is that I expect Nissan to make incompatible changes in the battery system for 2013, and there just won't be enough 2011 and 2012 vehicles on the road to justify a business case for manufacturing a retrofit.

But please don't even think about scrapping the vehicle. You have overlooked a much more cost effective solution. You probably won't need to replace the entire battery. Some modules will go bad faster than others, and Nissan plans to replace individual modules as needed. That will make a battery "rebuild" far less expensive than a whole new battery.

Ray

I really hope Nissan or a good third party offers reasonably priced longer range retrofit options for current leafs. For me, i could really use a true 100-125 miles. In the Bay Area there seems to be zero high speeds DC chargers and I doubt they will quickly appear in the next 18 months. Great car, but for me i can't drive from South Bay to SF (I knew this when buying the car).

 

[HighDesertDriver]

If indeed we got 7-10 years out of the batteries before needing replacement, one may WANT to replace them with new batteries that may well offer double or triple the capacity. 300 mile LEAF in 10 years sounds like a good investment.

If they end up just offering like for like, scrapping the vehicle may be the cost effective route.

It is possible, though I think not too likely, that someone may make higher capacity batteries that can be retrofit into 2011 and 2012 LEAFs. The reason I think it unlikely is that I expect Nissan to make incompatible changes in the battery system for 2013, and there just won't be enough 2011 and 2012 vehicles on the road to justify a business case for manufacturing a retrofit.

But please don't even think about scrapping the vehicle. You have overlooked a much more cost effective solution. You probably won't need to replace the entire battery. Some modules will go bad faster than others, and Nissan plans to replace individual modules as needed. That will make a battery "rebuild" far less expensive than a whole new battery.

Ray

Ni-MH battery packs in Toyota RAV4-EVs and Honda Insight hybrids are, indeed, being overhauled today by individually rejuvenating under-performing modules and replacing modules that are beyond recovery. Toyotas are done by a single vendor in a high-tech facility and the Hondas are done at home by enterprising owners, but both must source replacement parts from scrapped or retired vehicles. Owners are usually choosing to "overhaul" their batteries because of reduced range (RAVs) or lower MPG (Hondas), but increasingly they must because a failed module severely limits charging and, therefore, capacity.

I certainly cannot see the future, but it seems plausible that new replacement modules or form/fit/function equivalent modules could be available in the future, perhaps even with increased capacity. Automated machinery already produces many types and varieties of products on the same equipment, changing from product to product seamlessly with demand. Total production run is not the cost Goliath it once was. (It can still be big, but it is no longer THE limiting factor for we mere mortal consumers.) Perhaps the automated battery manufacturing equipment of today will become like the auto industry (including Nissan) assembly lines that not only vary color, but model, engine (or motor), and trim on a vehicle-by-vehicle basis.

In 7-10 years I don't expect the 2011 Leaf to look or perform like a new model, but I do expect to have some options to ensure it can still remain viable for our needs. I'll run the numbers then and decide which way to go. I just hope those options don't then include that monster SAE plug. I may not be strong enough to maneuver it and its associated monster cable! "Mister Fusion" and banana peels will be more along my line. . .

 

[Herm]

There will be a lot of Nissan and Renault made BEVs in a few years, there will be form factor lithium cells available to rebuild the modules.. either from Nissan or a third party. The modules may even become commodity items from aftermarket manufacturers.

Its actually fairly easy to make custom form factor cells, it just takes a few adjustments to the machines. It may even be possible to increase the capacity.

The questions is if cell manufacturers will sell to small rebuilders .. and not pull an A123 type situation.

 

[JPWhite]

There will be a lot of Nissan and Renault made BEVs in a few years, there will be form factor lithium cells available to rebuild the modules.. either from Nissan or a third party. The modules may even become commodity items from aftermarket manufacturers.

Its actually fairly easy to make custom form factor cells, it just takes a few adjustments to the machines. It may even be possible to increase the capacity.

The questions is if cell manufacturers will sell to small rebuilders .. and not pull an A123 type situation.

I think Ray's point is that since there will a very small number of vehicles with this type battery pack, they may not bother. It may not be worth their time and money.

Another question is that even with new improved batteries with better chemistry etc etc, the cars firmware may need an upgrade also to allow for correct conditioning/charging of the new cells. I doubt Nissan will let folks mess with the cars firmware.

 

[planet4ever]

I think Ray's point is that since there will a very small number of vehicles with this type battery pack, they may not bother. It may not be worth their time and money.

Another question is that even with new improved batteries with better chemistry etc etc, the cars firmware may need an upgrade also to allow for correct conditioning/charging of the new cells. I doubt Nissan will let folks mess with the cars firmware.

Your first paragraph is not exactly my point, but your second paragraph is. I am assuming that an upgrade to a higher capacity would require a complete replacement of the battery, and probably the BMS. That is what I don't think will have a viable business case for the particular space available in the 2011/2012 LEAF. I do assume that individual modules of the current size and capacity will be available from Nissan for many years, and perhaps from other sources.

To answer JPWhite's question, I don't know what's coming in 2013. I am just making an uneducated guess that Nissan will create a "Gen 2" LEAF that year, with a larger charger in a different location, quite possibly some physical adjustments in the battery space, and a modest battery capacity and/or charge rate increase. Who knows, they could even go to active battery temperature control.

Ray

 

[LEAFfan]

In the Bay Area there seems to be zero high speeds DC chargers and I doubt they will quickly appear in the next 18 months.

Oh ye of little faith. ECOtality and other DOE grant companies are required to install what was contracted. Installation completion will be the end of this year to beginning of 2012.

 

[JPWhite]

In the Bay Area there seems to be zero high speeds DC chargers and I doubt they will quickly appear in the next 18 months.

Oh ye of little faith. ECOtality and other DOE grant companies are required to install what was contracted. Installation completion will be the end of this year to beginning of 2012.

I hope you are right.

I remember seeing a video where Stephanie Cox said all installs would be done by July 2011.

The goal posts may move, but let's hope better late than never. The trouble with govt funding is that someone can turn the spigot off if the political winds change.

JP

 

[charlie1300]

The discussion of future battery upgrades to "Gen1" leafs is of course all speculation, but I have to assess for my own decisions that the probability is very low, and I would be taking a big risk to make any decision that was depend on that possibility. IMHO, the Leaf you buy is the Leaf you will always have. Nissan will move forward to Gen2 Leaf, and any backward compatibility of the Gen2 Battery pack and BMS will be because it saved Nissan costs on Gen2, not because they are planning or encouraging upgrades of Gen1 with Gen2 equipment.

And I just can't see what I would consider a cost effective upgrade from a 3rd party. This would be a custom solution with a custom price. For those who consider their MY2011 Leaf to be a future Classic Car.

As far as when Gen2 comes out, recall that MY2013 will be the first year of production from the US plant, and the production equipment for that plant is in the process of being made and shipped. So that would make it Gen1. I'm not expecting a significant upgrade in the battery pack before MY2015, based on Nissan's need to amortize it's production equipment, and the lead time to introduction significant technological changes to a full production model. And it certainly could be even later.
Of course Nissan could bring out what they call a Gen2 that is mostly firmware/software fixes to the current Leaf with cosmetic changes at any time. I'm talking about a significant upgrade to the battery pack.

 

[surfingslovak]

The discussion of future battery upgrades to "Gen1" leafs is of course all speculation, but I have to assess for my own decisions that the probability is very low, and I would be taking a big risk to make any decision that was depend on that possibility.

Charlie, yes it's all speculation. Nissan is very tight-lipped, which is understandable, but that leaves everyone, not just their competitors, scratching their head. I agree with you that given this situation it's good to be conservative and plan accordingly. However, I disagree with the view that there will be rapid and drastic changes to the Leaf and its technology. Automotive applications require long planning horizons and have high tooling costs. While it's possible, that Nissan will obsolete MY2011 and MY2012 Leafs quickly, I wouldn't bet on it. And I would definitely not lose any sleep over it.

I don't know if it will be possible to make a 150-miles pack work with present-day Leaf in 2015, but hopefully EVs will be popular enough by then that there will be mechanics and other third parties that can help. I'd also hope that Nissan will standardize their modules and technology to allow for easy servicing and upgrades to their cars. There is no way we can predict the future, but I'd be surprised if Nissan left us and the early Leafs in the dust. That would be a poor decision, and I think that they are smart enough to see that.