Nissan Says US Electric Leaf Sales May Reach 12,000 in 2011

[evnow]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-02/nissan-says-u-s-electric-leaf-sales-may-reach-12-000-in-2011.html

Nissan Says U.S. Electric Leaf Sales May Reach 12,000 in 2011

Japan’s second-largest carmaker sold 1,142 Leafs in the U.S. last month, the most since it began shipping them in December. Deliveries should continue at that pace, totaling between 10,000 and 12,000 by the end of the year, Al Castignetti, Nissan’s vice president of U.S. sales, said in an interview yesterday.
...
The initial reservation figure ultimately shrank to 11,000 firm orders, said Katherine Zachary, a spokeswoman for Nissan. Nissan began taking Leaf reservations again in May, which require a $99 deposit, and has secured about 1,000 additional orders, she said.

 

[kmp647]

So 11,000 firm orders ? does that # agree with previous calculations?

they have taken 1,000 orders since May 1st , not a huge # but not bad considering the process and pre-registration requirements


so 11,000 previuos firm orders plus 1,000 May 1st orders = 12,000

2,167 delivered so far , can they make ship and deliver 10,000 by december?

6 months ? = 1666 per month

?

 

[Herm]

Its just amazing.. thats a lot of batteries!. The 2012 model should be coming out soon, I wonder what they will change.

 

[nogajim]

It sounds like Tier 1 and the 2011 model are about played out. It is time to open orders for Tier 2 and 2012. And throw in that 6.6 kW charger, please!

 

[kmp647]

I dont think there will be any change to the charger or batteries on the 2012's

Some tier 2 should open soon ? how soon ? and early tier 2 orders will get 2011's not many but some, only change is the now available cold weather package and the added $

majority of tier 2 orders in winter 2011 and early 2012 get 2012's

 

[awallis]

I realize that sales are about as high as they can be right now, and 1000 orders for one month is pretty good, but I still worry about the Leaf over the next 3-5 years. I'm just not sure they are going to be as popular as they need to be. Long-term (2020), I think EV and the Leaf look good, but I think the oil-based press will be having a field day circa 2014 when production capacity exceeds demand.

I *really* hope I'm wrong.

On the 2012 model...
One thing that does make me optimistic FOR THE LEAF is charging. I just don't know where Ford is going to find the capacity to sell 6.6kw chargers AND offer decent range on their car. You can talk about economies of scale all you want, 6.6 is an order of magnitude greater in price to produce. If you look at chargers today (manzanita, chennic), those babies hit 3k to 5k really quickly. Nissan has got to be thinking 100 miles or 6.6 kw and opting for range in their 2012 model. My guess is that 2012 will be all about interior comforts--new colors, seat heaters, upgraded stereo. All the easy stuff.

 

[garygid]

There were hints (in an Order-Now email from Nissan) of a price increase for the 2012 models.

 

[TomT]

I think Nissan has made it pretty clear by now that there will be no changes for 2012 except for the already added cold weather package and, perhaps, a price increase... No 6.6Kw until 2013 Tenn. production at the earliest.

It sounds like Tier 1 and the 2011 model are about played out. It is time to open orders for Tier 2 and 2012. And throw in that 6.6 kW charger, please!

 

[jhm614]

My guess is that 2012 will be all about interior comforts--new colors, seat heaters, upgraded stereo. All the easy stuff.

I think you nailed it and these will all be options to drive the margin. Although I hope we see an increment increase in range, too -- even if it just 5-8%

I think Nissan has made it pretty clear by now that there will be no changes for 2012 except for the already added cold weather package and, perhaps, a price increase... No 6.6Kw until 2013 Tenn. production at the earliest.

I hope they can hold the base price and make it up with the above mentioned options but I guess the yen / USD exchange rate will have something to say about that, too...

 

[evnow]

I think Nissan has made it pretty clear by now that there will be no changes for 2012 except for the already added cold weather package and, perhaps, a price increase... No 6.6Kw until 2013 Tenn. production at the earliest.

Where have they made it pretty clear ?

 

[evnow]

So 11,000 firm orders ? does that # agree with previous calculations?

Yes - something is not right.

Just the other day Catherine was quoted as saying 3K orders in CA etc.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=4008

CA : 3,000
WA : 750
OR : 375
AZ : ?
TX : ?
HI : ?

Rest were smaller than OR. So I'd assume a total of 4,500 to 4,750.

So, where does 11K suddenly come from ?

Also, the total reservations were supposed to be 20K (or was that in the launch states ?). So among the 20 K a lot of people are still waiting to order - let us say 5K. 11K orders out of 15K sounds very high. Moreover the phrase "The initial reservation figure ultimately shrank to 11,000 firm orders" doesn't make sense.

I wonder whether she has been misquoted.

 

[evnow]

I'm just not sure they are going to be as popular as they need to be. Long-term (2020), I think EV and the Leaf look good, but I think the oil-based press will be having a field day circa 2014 when production capacity exceeds demand.

Depends on oil prices & the economy (which are dependant on each other).

A price of above 6$ and a just a slow economy like it is now (instead of a big recession) will generate a lot of interest in Leaf.

We know that people irrationally buy more efficient cars when the gas goes higher (irrationally because they won't make up for the higher price paid for the new car). So, as gas prices go up more & more people will get interested in EVs. Almost everyone I've talked to at my work about my car feel the car is ideal for them - they are especially interested in the "costs $20 a month" part.

Also, we should look at the announced 150K capacity in TN to make up multiple models, not just Leaf. But Leaf would remain the largest vehicle by number - with Infinity EV and couple of other models joining the lineup in by 2015.

 

[Yanquetino]

There were hints (in an Order-Now email from Nissan) of a price increase for the 2012 models.

Hi, Gary:

Do you have a copy of that e-mail somewhere? Could you please quote it for us?

If that 2012 price increase does happen, I sure hope that Nissan will do the right thing for those of us in Tiers 2 and 3, who placed our deposits over a year ago, fully expecting to pay the price quoted at that time. Now that they have allowed more Tier 1 customers to butt ahead of us in line, with nary an explanation or apology, it would add insult to injury to raise the price on our reserved LEAFs.

Mark

 

[evnow]

If that 2012 price increase does happen, I sure hope that Nissan will do the right thing for those of us in Tiers 2 and 3, who placed our deposits over a year ago, fully expecting to pay the price quoted at that time. Now that they have allowed more Tier 1 customers to butt ahead of us in line, with nary an explanation or apology, it would add insult to injury to raise the price on our reserved LEAFs.

I don't expect a price increase.

What they will probably do is add more (expensive) options and may be strip a few things from the base model.

Ofcourse, there is some chance that Nissan may decide USD has depreciated too far and increase the price by 1K or so. Can't really blame them ...

 

[muus]

You can talk about economies of scale all you want, 6.6 is an order of magnitude greater in price to produce.

Actually, Nissan has said they have found a supplier that can provide them with a 6.6 kWh charger that is cheaper than the 3.3 they are currently using. However, they probably have long-term contracts and engineering cost that prevents them from switching to a new charger for 2012. I think the 2012 Leaf MAY have a 6.6 KW charger (which will help them justify the higher cost) and WILL have a 6.6 kW charger in 2013.

 

[evnow]

Actually, Nissan has said they have found a supplier that can provide them with a 6.6 kWh charger that is cheaper than the 3.3 they are currently using. However, they probably have long-term contracts and engineering cost that prevents them from switching to a new charger for 2012. I think the 2012 Leaf MAY have a 6.6 KW charger (which will help them justify the higher cost) and WILL have a 6.6 kW charger in 2013.

I won't be surprised if they come up with a 6.6KW option.

It would also depend on Focus EV pricing. Expect Nissan to match or beat 6.6KW Focus EV price.

 

[kmp647]

I would think stripping or De contenting is the way to go:

reduce the level of standard features to keep the price down.

offer a no Navigation car at ~$2,000 discount

It would seem by our calculations that tier 2 could be opened sooner rather than later

especially if the new may 1st orders are not as strong as Nissan had planned.

 

[Herm]

I don't expect a price increase.
What they will probably do is add more (expensive) options and may be strip a few things from the base model.
..

The dollar is really taking a dive lately, they almost have no choice.. probably a slight increase, some decontenting and some expensive options such as leather, 6.6kw charger and the 150 mile pack.. the 150 mile pack option comes bundled with the upgraded charger, otherwise it would take forever to charge. I think they should strip the nav and carwings from the car... you are not going that far from home, you probably know how to get there... maybe an optional spare tire for those that want one. Strip the AC out too, and add a heat pump mode option..

 

[Stanton]

I would think stripping or De contenting is the way to go:

reduce the level of standard features to keep the price down.

offer a no Navigation car at ~$2,000 discount

It would seem by our calculations that tier 2 could be opened sooner rather than later

especially if the new may 1st orders are not as strong as Nissan had planned.

I don't see how you guys think that they can ACCELERATE the roll-out. According to numbers posted at the beginning of this thread, I think they will be doing good just to fill the 11k or so orders they have with the 2011 production run (if they can maintain a 1500+ cars/month run rate). While I have yet to receive a month/date (DB still "pending"), I also don't see how I could be getting a car before 4Q11 (even though that's what Nissan CS has implied).

 

[kmp647]

I dont think there are as many in line ahead of you as you might think

I would bet you do get a car by dec 2011

lets hop I am right , the faster you get your the sooner I can get mine in Virginia.