Official Tesla Model S thread

[TomT]

Things not mentioned in the video:

1) It will cost 60 to 80 bucks.
2) You must reclaim your original battery pack on a return trip or you will be charged.
3) How long of a period do you have before you must reclaim your original battery?

The first two will be on the L.A.-SFO and Wash-Boston corridors. Cost is 1/2 million a piece.

Wow! I think the key to the swap being successful is:
1. How much will cost?
2. Will Tesla keep close watch on the battery packs to refurbish them when the range drops below, say 250 miles?
3. How quickly can they build the infrastructure?

 

[KJD]

Things not mentioned in the video:
1) It will cost 60 to 80 bucks.
2) You must reclaim your original battery pack on a return trip or you will be charged.
3) How long of a period you have before you must reclaim your original battery.
The first two will be on the L.A.-SFO and Wash-Boston corridors. Cost is 1/2 million a piece.

I really wish nothing but the best for Tesla, but this battery swap stuff is a really bad idea.

They should spend that 1/2 million dollars on building more solar supercharge stations.

 

[evnow]

I was sure Better Place won't work.

But I think Tesla can make it work. They will have just a few of them that will give them more ZEV credits and help in high traffic areas. May also bring in a lot of new sales.

From customer POV this can be a great deal - esp. for the 60 kWh models.

 

[gsleaf]

I guess this means Tesla will let you buy a new or at least newer battery pack rather than renting one forever (dangit Nissan). That's good news.

 

[Valdemar]

Things not mentioned in the video:
3) How long of a period you have before you must reclaim your original battery.

Is it known?

 

[coolfilmaker]

Things not mentioned in the video:
1) It will cost 60 to 80 bucks.
2) You must reclaim your original battery pack on a return trip or you will be charged.
3) How long of a period you have before you must reclaim your original battery.
The first two will be on the L.A.-SFO and Wash-Boston corridors. Cost is 1/2 million a piece.

I really wish nothing but the best for Tesla, but this battery swap stuff is a really bad idea.

They should spend that 1/2 million dollars on building more solar supercharge stations.

The point of building these is that they will get more back in ZEV credits than they will cost to build. If they don't end up being used they won't have to build any more.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

From customer POV this can be a great deal - esp. for the 60 kWh models.

Now that's an interesting angle, if you have a 60kwh model, maybe even one that is a few years old and has lost some capacity, but you can borrow an 85kwh pack from the swapper for a longer trip. You wouldn't even bother finding a swap station as a waypoint on your trip, you'd pick up the bigger pack locally (more or less) before going on the trip and turn it in when you return.

 

[mitch672]

From customer POV this can be a great deal - esp. for the 60 kWh models.

Now that's an interesting angle, if you have a 60kwh model, maybe even one that is a few years old and has lost some capacity, but you can borrow an 85kwh pack from the swapper for a longer trip. You wouldn't even bother finding a swap station as a waypoint on your trip, you'd pick up the bigger pack locally (more or less) before going on the trip and turn it in when you return.

Well, the swappers are initially being installed in CA on I5 by the end of 2013, then on I95 the year after on the Boston to Washington route, so it's a limited deployment. Depending on how those workout, they'll determine if they continue this nationwide.

 

[essaunders]

From customer POV this can be a great deal - esp. for the 60 kWh models.

Now that's an interesting angle, if you have a 60kwh model, maybe even one that is a few years old and has lost some capacity, but you can borrow an 85kwh pack from the swapper for a longer trip. You wouldn't even bother finding a swap station as a waypoint on your trip, you'd pick up the bigger pack locally (more or less) before going on the trip and turn it in when you return.

This was my thought exactly. Plus upgrading from a 60 to 85 would be easy. I wonder if they have a logical way to handle a downgrade from 85 to 60?

 

[GeekEV]

Things not mentioned in the video:
1) It will cost 60 to 80 bucks.
2) You must reclaim your original battery pack on a return trip or you will be charged.
3) How long of a period you have before you must reclaim your original battery.
The first two will be on the L.A.-SFO and Wash-Boston corridors. Cost is 1/2 million a piece.

I really wish nothing but the best for Tesla, but this battery swap stuff is a really bad idea.

They should spend that 1/2 million dollars on building more solar supercharge stations.

Half a mil per super charger is only like $100 mil for 200 super chargers. With the money they just raised in their additional stock offering, that's chump change. Tesla just removed the last objection nay-sayers may have had for electric vehicles. Even if nobody uses it, it's worth it from the PR perspective.

I could see where traditional gas stations could drop in an underground station like this where there tanks are without much hassle. They're used to digging up and dropping large objects underground periodically. These things could literally be as ubiquitous as gas stations. The only catch is that everybody (car makers) have to play in the same sandbox. If you're a manufacturer looking to get into the electric business, why would you invest all your own money in R&D when Tesla's already got a viable system with a complete infrastructure? This could also catapult them into the de-facto parts supplier for all EVs...

Sure, it's early yet, but the potential boggles my mind.

 

[mitch672]

GeekEV, yes, that IS Teslas endgame, drivetrain licensee for manufacturers who "get it", many will say the majors won't be part if it, after all, it's "NIH" (Not Invented Here), fine, but it will be difficult to compete with Tesla, whose giving away lifetime free SuperCharger use, it's tough to compete with "Free". Elons stated mission is the electrification of the fleet, it will happen much quicker with partners manufacturing milions of EVs, won't it? Check and mate, Elon is thinking 5 steps ahead, yesterday's demo was more a wake up call to the automotive industry.

 

[evnow]

GeekEV, yes, that IS Teslas endgame, drivetrain licensee for manufacturers who "get it", many will say the majors won't be part if it, after all, it's "NIH" (Not Invented Here), fine, but it will be difficult to compete with Tesla, whose giving away lifetime free SuperCharger use, it's tough to compete with "Free". Elons stated mission is the electrification of the fleet, it will happen much quicker with partners manufacturing milions of EVs, won't it? Check and mate, Elon is thinking 5 steps ahead, yesterday's demo was more a wake up call to the automotive industry.

Tesla will have very little competitive advantage once much higher density batteries come out in a few years. Until then EVs are a niche ... I'm afraid they are the Netscape / Palm etc. of the EV industry.

Well, may be I shouldn't be saying this considering I'm long on TSLA

 

[ebill3]

Tesla will have very little competitive advantage once much higher density batteries come out in a few years.

Well, I hope you are correct that higher density batteries are just a few years down the road, but I, for one, have become quite skeptical of wonder battery announcements. Lab rats, yes, but real world usage?

 

[evnow]

Well, I hope you are correct that higher density batteries are just a few years down the road, but I, for one, have become quite skeptical of wonder battery announcements. Lab rats, yes, but real world usage?

Depends on what you mean by "few years" - but no wonder batteries are needed. It is just a function of density (and thus price). Once they become low enough to be competitive with ICE on both range & price, Tesla will have no "moat" around their business.

 

[GeekEV]

Depends on what you mean by "few years" - but no wonder batteries are needed. It is just a function of density (and thus price). Once they become low enough to be competitive with ICE on both range & price, Tesla will have no "moat" around their business.

Assuming their only advantage is large capacity packs, that's true. But I think they'll have significant early movers advantage. Plus their engineering and technology know how seems leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else. Imagine how much further ahead they'll be in a few more years.

 

[smkettner]

Tesla will have very little competitive advantage once much higher density batteries come out in a few years.

Well, I hope you are correct that higher density batteries are just a few years down the road, but I, for one, have become quite skeptical of wonder battery announcements. Lab rats, yes, but real world usage?

+1 So Tesla has a lock on the market for 20+ years

 

[Deleted member 9549]

Well, I hope you are correct that higher density batteries are just a few years down the road, but I, for one, have become quite skeptical of wonder battery announcements. Lab rats, yes, but real world usage?

Depends on what you mean by "few years" - but no wonder batteries are needed. It is just a function of density (and thus price). Once they become low enough to be competitive with ICE on both range & price, Tesla will have no "moat" around their business.

You can argue there is no moat around their business today.

Yet they manage to out engineer reluctant manufacturers who'd rather focus on making ICE vehicles.
Why hasn't anyone else made such an exemplary car, much less an EV?
Why hasn't anyone else made a battery pack that is remotely this easy to replace?

Tesla is focused on engineering. They have really sharp people. They have a track record of out innovating, out thinking the competition. They are not burdened with years of having done it the way its always been done.

 

[mitch672]

Well, I hope you are correct that higher density batteries are just a few years down the road, but I, for one, have become quite skeptical of wonder battery announcements. Lab rats, yes, but real world usage?

Depends on what you mean by "few years" - but no wonder batteries are needed. It is just a function of density (and thus price). Once they become low enough to be competitive with ICE on both range & price, Tesla will have no "moat" around their business.

You can argue there is no moat around their business today.

Yet they manage to out engineer reluctant manufacturers who'd rather focus on making ICE vehicles.
Why hasn't anyone else made such an exemplary car, much less an EV?
Why hasn't anyone else made a battery pack that is remotely this easy to replace?

Tesla is focused on engineering. They have really sharp people. They have a track record of out innovating, out thinking the competition. They are not burdened with years of having done it the way its always been done.

Exactly. And Elon Musk is planning for the eventual replacement of the ICE, and positioning Tesla to take advantage of it, when it arrives. Could anyone do what Tesla has done? Absolutely. But, here's the but, no one will, because they refuse to cannobolize their ICE business, even Nissan is hamstrung by their ICE business (mostly though their dealer network). The percentage of zero emission vehicles mandated increases each year, and Tesla is very aware of it, and plans around it. They might not be doing anything that anyone else couldn't do, but no one has the will to do it. That's Teslas advantage, starting with a clean slate and saying "Why not", instead of "It can't be done, no one will buy it", Model S is proof of that, they started out to build a great car, and they did, it's a bonus it happens to be electric.

 

[evnow]

You can argue there is no moat around their business today.

They do have a moat around their business today.

They bet that using higher density consumer batteries is the way to build large range cars. That meant they had to do complicated engineering around the issues of thermal stability of LiCo batteries - which is not simple. That not only takes time, but can be somewhat risky for large OEMs who have a lot to lose.

But once the automotive batteries catch up in terms of density, this unique technology Tesla has built will not be a moat.

Tesla is focused on engineering. They have really sharp people. They have a track record of out innovating, out thinking the competition. They are not burdened with years of having done it the way its always been done.

None of these stopped a large number of companies from going under. These are not moats.

Ofcourse, Tesla can continue to do well by being agile and become an important player in the automotive future - but they need to figure out new moats or ways to survive when they don't have a moat.

 

[mitch672]

It's right in front of everyone, yet no one sees it.

Psssst: they are setting themselves up to be the dominant EV drive train mfr in the world.
They are planning to license the technology to other mfrs, so they can be part of the Tesla ecosystem
(SuperChargers, swapping stations, battery pack thermal management, compact inverters coupled with their AC induction motor), put it all together, you have a "compelling EV" as Elon would say.
Don't be surprised to hear traditional ICE manufacturers are licensing Tesla technology, ultimately that's what they'd like to do, keep their focus on engineering and license it to others to mass produce.
This phase of their development is "proof of concept". You don't think they are spending $100 million deploying the SuperCharger network nationwide (then on other continents as well) for just the 20-40K Model S's they'll manufacture per year, do you? Same thing with the swapper, that's not really needed at this point, it's all just proof of concept, and would be needed with hundreds of thousands of EVs on the road. Out thinking and Out planning everyone else.

BTW, consumer grade cells are manufactured in the millions, that's why they use them, they are not perfect, but Tesla designs their packs knowing this, not waiting for the "perfect" battery, no such thing exists, and likely never will.. Meanwhile Panasonic gradually improves the power density of these cells every year.